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The congressional committee investigating the January 6 insurrection delivered a comprehensive and compelling case for the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump and his closest allies for their attempt to overturn the 2020 election.

But the committee zoomed in so tightly on the culpability of Trump and his inner circle that it largely cropped out the dozens of other state and federal Republican officials who supported or enabled the presidents multifaceted, months-long plot. The committee downplayed the involvement of the legion of local Republican officials who enlisted as fake electors and said almost nothing about the dozens of congressional Republicans who supported Trumps effortseven to the point, in one case, of urging him to declare Marshall Law to overturn the result.

With these choices, the committee likely increased the odds that Trump and his allies will face personal accountabilitybut diminished the prospect of a complete reckoning within the GOP.

David Frum: Justice is coming for Donald Trump

That reality points to the larger question lingering over the committees final report: Would convicting Trump defang the threat to democracy that culminated on January 6, or does that require a much broader confrontation with all of the forces in extremist movements, and even the mainstream Republican coalition, that rallied behind Trumps efforts?

If we imagine that preventing another assault on the democratic process is only about preventing the misconduct of a single person, Grant Tudor, a policy advocate at the nonpartisan group Protect Democracy, told me, we are probably not setting up ourselves for success.

Both the 154-page executive summary unveiled Monday and the 845-page final report released last night made clear that the committee is focused preponderantly on Trump. The summary in particular read more like a draft criminal indictment than a typical congressional report. It contained breathtaking detail on Trumps efforts to overturn the election and concluded with an extensive legal analysis recommending that the Justice Department indict Trump on four separate offenses, including obstruction of a government proceeding and providing aid and comfort to an insurrection.

Norm Eisen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the former special counsel to the House Judiciary Committee during the first Trump impeachment, told me the report showed that the committee members and staff were thinking like prosecutors. The reports structure, he said, made clear that for the committee, criminal referrals for Trump and his closest allies were the endpoint that all of the hearings were building toward. I think they believe that its important not to dilute the narrative, he said. The utmost imperative is to have some actual consequences and to tell a story to the American people. Harry Litman, a former U.S. attorney who has closely followed the investigation, agreed that the report underscored the committees prioritization of a single goal: making the case that the Justice Department should prosecute Trump and some of the people around him.

If they wind up with Trump facing charges, I think they will see it as a victory, Litman told me. My sense is they are also a little suspicious about the [Justice] Department; they think its overly conservative or wussy and if they served up too big an agenda to them, it might have been rejected. The real focus was on Trump.

In one sense, the committees single-minded focus on Trump has already recorded a significant though largely unrecognized achievement. Although theres no exact parallel to what the Justice Department now faces, in scandals during previous decades, many people thought it would be too divisive and turbulent for one administration to look back with criminal proceedings against a former administrations officials. President Gerald Ford raised that argument when he pardoned his disgraced predecessor Richard Nixon, who had resigned while facing impeachment over the Watergate scandal, in 1974. Barack Obama made a similar case in 2009 when he opted against prosecuting officials from the George W. Bush administration for the torture of alleged terrorists. (Nothing will be gained by spending our time and energy laying blame for the past, Obama said at the time.)

As Tudor pointed out, it is a measure of the committees impact that virtually no political or opinion leaders outside of hard-core Trump allies are making such arguments against looking back. If anything, the opposite argumentthat the real risk to U.S. society would come from not holding Trump accountableis much more common.

There are very few folks in elite opinion-making who are not advocating for accountability in some form, and that was not a given two years ago, Tudor told me.

Yet Tudor is one of several experts I spoke with who expressed ambivalence about the committees choice to focus so tightly on Trump while downplaying the role of other Republicans, either in the states or in Congress. I think its an important lost opportunity, he said, that could narrow the publics understanding as to the totality of what happened and, in some respects, to risk trivializing it.

Read: The January 6 committees most damning revelation yet

Bill Kristol, the longtime conservative strategist turned staunch Trump critic, similarly told me that although he believes the committee was mostly correct to focus its limited time and resources primarily on Trumps role, the report doesnt quite convey how much the antidemocratic, authoritarian sentiments have metastasized across the GOP.

Perhaps the most surprising element of the executive summary was its treatment of the dozens of state Republicans who signed on as fake electors, who Trump hoped could supplant the actual electors pledged to Joe Biden in the decisive states. The committee suggested that the fake electorssome of whom face federal and state investigations for their actionswere largely duped by Trump and his allies. Multiple Republicans who were persuaded to sign the fake certificates also testified that they felt misled or betrayed, and would not have done so had they known that the fake votes would be used on January 6th without an intervening court ruling, the committee wrote. Likewise, the report portrays Republican National Committee Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel, who agreed to help organize the fake electors, as more of a victim than an ally in the effort. The full report does note that some officials eagerly assisted President Trump with his plans, but it identifies only one by name: Doug Mastriano, the GOP state senator and losing Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate this year. Even more than the executive summary, the full report emphasizes testimony from the fake electors in which they claimed to harbor doubts and concerns about the scheme.

Eisen, a co-author of a recent Brookings Institution report on the fake electors, told me that the committee seemed to go out of their way to give the fake electors the benefit of the doubt. Some of them may have been misled, he said, and in other cases, its not clear whether their actions cross the standard for criminal liability. But, Eisen said, if you ask me do I think these fake electors knew exactly what was going on, I believe a bunch of them did. When the fake electors met in Georgia, for instance, Eisen said that they already knew Trump had not won the state, it was clear he had not won in court and had no prospect of winning in court, they were invited to the gathering of the fake electors in secrecy, and they knew that the governor had not and would not sign these fake electoral certificates. Its hard to view the participants in such a process as innocent dupes.

The executive summary and final report both said very little about the role of other members of Congress in Trumps drive to overturn the election. The committee did recommend Ethics Committee investigations of four House Republicans who had defied its subpoenas (including GOP Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, the presumptive incoming speaker). And it identifie GOP Representative Jim Jordan, the incoming chair of the House Judiciary Committee, as a significant player in President Trumps efforts while also citing the sustained involvement of Representatives Scott Perry and Andy Biggs.

But neither the executive summary nor the full report chose quoted exchanges involving House and Senate Republicans in the trove of texts the committee obtained from former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. The website Talking Points Memo, quoting from those texts, recently reported that 34 congressional Republicans exchanged ideas with Meadows on how to overturn the election, including the suggestion from Representative Ralph Norman of South Carolina that Trump simply declare Marshall Law to remain in power. Even Representative Adam Schiff of California, a member of the committee, acknowledged in an op-ed published today that the report devoted scant attention …[to] the willingness of so many members of Congress to vote to overturn it.

Nor did the committee recommend disciplinary action against the House members who strategized with Meadows or Trump about overturning the resultalthough it did say that such members should be questioned in a public forum about their advance knowledge of and role in President Trumps plan to prevent the peaceful transition of power. (While one of the committees concluding recommendations was that lawyers who participated in the efforts to overturn the election face disciplinary action, the report is silent on whether that same standard should apply to members of Congress.) In that, the committee stopped short of the call from a bipartisan group of former House members for discipline (potentially to the point of expulsion) against any participants in Trumps plot. Surely, taking part in an effort to overturn an election warrants an institutional response; previous colleagues have been investigated and disciplined for far less, the group wrote.

By any measure, experts agree, the January 6 committee has provided a model of tenacity in investigation and creativity in presentation. The record it has compiled offers both a powerful testament for history and a spur to immediate action by the Justice Department. It has buried, under a mountain of evidence, the Trump apologists who tried to whitewash the riot as a normal tourist visit or minimize the former presidents responsibility for it. In all of these ways, the committee has made it more difficult for Trump to obscure how gravely he abused the power of the presidency as he begins his campaign to re-obtain it. As Tudor said, Its pretty hard to imagine January 6 would still be headline news day in and day out absent the committees work.

But Trump could not have mounted such a threat to American democracy alone. Thousands of far-right extremists responded to his call to assemble in Washington. Seventeen Republican state attorneys general signed on to a lawsuit to invalidate the election results in key states; 139 Republican House members and eight GOP senators voted to reject the outcome even after the riot on January 6. Nearly three dozen congressional Republicans exchanged ideas with Meadows on how to overturn the result, or exhorted him to do so. Dozens of prominent Republicans across the key battleground states signed on as fake electors. Nearly 300 Republicans who echoed Trumps lies about the 2020 election were nominated in Novembermore than half of all GOP candidates, according to The Washington Post. And although many of the highest-profile election deniers were defeated, about 170 deniers won their campaign and now hold office, where they could be in position to threaten the integrity of future elections.

From the November 2022 issue: Bad losers

The January 6 committees dogged investigation has stripped Trumps defenses and revealed the full magnitude of his assault on democracy. But whatever happens next to Trump, it would be naive to assume that the committee has extinguished, or even fully mapped, a threat that has now spread far beyond him.

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Business

Germany: Europe’s largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession

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Germany: Europe's largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession

Forget this week’s minor decrease in the UK inflation number. 

The most important European data release was the confirmation from Germany that, during 2024, its economy contracted for the second consecutive year.

Europe’s largest economy shrank by 0.2% during 2024 – on top of a 0.3% contraction in 2023.

Now it must be stressed that this was a very early estimate from Germany’s Federal Statistics Office and that the numbers may be revised higher in due course. That health warning is especially appropriate this time around because, very unexpectedly, the figures suggest the economy contracted during the final three months of the year and most economists had expected a modest expansion.

Money latest: Guinness rival’s sales surge 632%

If unrevised, though, it would confirm that Germany is suffering its worst bout of economic stagnation since the Second World War.

The timing is lousy for Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, who faces the electorate just six weeks from now.

More on Germany

Worse still, things seem unlikely to get better this year, regardless of who wins the election.

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How young people intend to vote in Germany

Germany, along with the rest of the world, is watching anxiously to see what tariffs Donald Trump will slap on imports when he returns to the White House next week.

Germany, whose trade surplus with the United States is estimated by the Reuters news agency to have hit a record €65bbn (£54.7bn) during the first 11 months of 2024, is likely to be a prime target for such tariffs.

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Fallout of Trump’s tariff plans?

Aside from that, Germany remains beset by some of the problems with which it has been grappling for some time.

Because of its large manufacturing sector, Germany has been hit disproportionately by the surge in energy prices since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, while those manufacturers are also suffering from intense competition from China. The big three carmakers – Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW – were already staring at a huge increase in costs because of having to switch to producing electric vehicles instead of cars powered by traditional internal combustion engines. That task has got harder as Chinese EV makers, such as BYD, undercut them on price.

Other German manufacturers – many of which have not fully recovered from the COVID lockdowns five years ago – have also been beset by higher costs as shown by the fact that, remarkably, German industrial production in November last year was fully 15% lower than the record high achieved in 2017.

German consumer spending, meanwhile, remains becalmed. Consumers have kept their purse strings closed amid the economic uncertainty while a fall in house prices has further depressed sentiment. While home ownership is lower in Germany than many other OECD countries, those Germans who do own their own homes have a bigger proportion of their household wealth tied up in bricks and mortar than most of their OECD counterparts, including the property-crazy British.

Consumer sentiment has also been hit by waves of lay-offs. German companies in the Fortune 500, including big names such as Siemens, Bosch, Thyssenkrupp and Deutsche Bahn, are reckoned to have laid off more than 60,000 staff during the first 10 months of 2024. Bosch, one of the country’s most admired manufacturing companies, announced in November alone plans to let go of some 7,000 workers.

More of the same is expected in 2025.

Volkswagen shocked the German public in September last year when it said it was considering its first German factory closure in its 87-year history. Analysts suggest as many as 15,000 jobs could go at the company.

Accordingly, hopes for much of a recovery are severely depressed.

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Starmer in Germany to boost relations

As Jens-Oliver Niklasch, of LBBW Bank, put it today: “Everything suggests that 2025 will be the third consecutive year of recession.”

That is not the view of the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, whose official forecast – set last month – is that the economy will expand by 0.2% this year. But that was down from its previous forecast of 1.1% – and growth of 0.2%, for a weary German electorate, will not feel that different from a contraction of 0.2%.

And all is not yet lost. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates more aggressively this year than any of its peers. Meanwhile, one option for whoever wins the German election would be to remove the ‘debt brake’ imposed in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis, which restricts the government from running a structural budget deficit of more than 0.35% of German GDP each year.

The incoming chancellor, expected to be Friedrich Merz of the centre-right CDU/CSU, could easily justify such a move by ramping up defence spending in response to Mr Trump’s demands for NATO members to do so. Mr Merz has also indicated that policies aimed at supporting decarbonisation will take less of a priority than defending Germany’s beleaguered manufacturers.

But these are all, for now, only things that may happen rather than things that will happen.

And the current economic doldrums, in the meantime, will only push German voters to the extreme left-wing Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht or the extreme right-wing Alternative fur Deutschland.

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World

Israeli cabinet due to approve ceasefire as Netanyahu insists deal not finalised

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Israeli cabinet due to approve ceasefire as Netanyahu insists deal not finalised

Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed Hamas has backtracked on an earlier understanding of the ceasefire agreement, which is awaiting the approval of the Israeli government.

The Israeli prime minister said the group was objecting to part of the agreement which would give Israel the ability to veto the release of certain Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas was trying to dictate which Palestinian prisoners would be released, he said.

Follow live: Gaza ceasefire deal

Palestinians stand among the rubble of houses destroyed in previous Israeli strikes in Gaza City.
Pic: Reuters
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Palestinians stand among the rubble of houses destroyed in Israeli strikes in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters

“Among other things – contrary to a specific clause that grants Israel the veto power over the release of mass murderers who are symbols of terrorism, Hamas is demanding to dictate the identities of these terrorists,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement.

It said Mr Netanyahu has told Israeli negotiators to stand firm on the earlier agreement. Hamas is yet to respond.

Any deal will need to be approved by Mr Netanyahu’s security cabinet and then his government.

Since the agreement has been announced at least 32 people have been killed in heavy Israeli bombardment in Gaza, medics reported.

Strikes continued into Thursday morning, flattening houses in Rafah in southern Gaza, Nuseirat in central Gaza and in northern Gaza, local residents said.

The ceasefire deal does not come into force until Sunday.

The announcement comes after weeks of painstaking negotiations in Doha against the backdrop of a war in Gaza that has left tens of thousands of Palestinians dead and many more injured and displaced from their homes.

Much of the densely-populated territory has been razed to the ground as Israel launched a ground offensive following the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 which left 1,200 people dead and around 250 people taken hostage.

Read more:
A timeline of events in more than a year of war
Faces of 94 hostages who still haven’t returned home
What does the agreement say?
The war in numbers

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15 months of the Gaza war explained

What’s in the deal?

The deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase that includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of Palestinians to north Gaza, the Reuters news agency reported, citing an official briefed on the agreement.

Hamas will release 33 hostages, including all women, children and men over the age of 50, the agency said.

In return for the release of the hostages, Israel will free between 990 and 1,650 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Israel will release 30 Palestinian detainees for every civilian hostage and 50 Palestinian detainees for every female Israeli soldier that Hamas releases.

There will also be a surge of humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza as part of the agreement, which requires 600 aid trucks to be allowed into Gaza each day.

Negotiations over a second phase of the agreement are to begin on the 16th day of phase one and are expected to include the release of all remaining hostages, including male Israeli soldiers, a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.

A third phase is expected to include the return of the bodies of the dead hostages and the beginning of Gaza’s reconstruction, supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the UN.

Analysis: This deal wouldn’t have happened without Trump

An end to this long war is finally in sight

Finally, after 467 days of fighting, a ceasefire agreement has been approved.

Within minutes, there were celebrations in Gaza. Palestinians were cheering on the streets of Khan Yunis, a city that is barely standing after 15 and a half months of war.

In Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, where weekly demonstrators calling for a deal have brought parts of the city to a standstill, there is now an outpouring of hope and relief that their loved ones might be home soon.

The deal will need to be approved by the Israeli security cabinet, expected to meet on Thursday – despite opposition from some far-right politicians, it should pass.

The Supreme Court in Jerusalem will be given the opportunity to hear objections relating to the Palestinian prisoners who will be released in the deal – that should be a relatively swift process and is unlikely to hold up the deal.

But the hard yards are complete, the two sides are in agreement and an end to this long war is finally in sight.

Shortly after the ceasefire deal was announced, Hamas’ acting Gaza chief Khalil al-Hayya said in a televised address that Israel failed to achieve its goals in the Palestinian territory.

He also vowed Hamas will neither forgive nor forget Israel’s actions in Gaza.

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Technology

TSMC net profit hits record high as fourth-quarter results top expectations on robust AI chip demand

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TSMC net profit hits record high as fourth-quarter results top expectations on robust AI chip demand

A logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen during the TSMC global RnD Center opening ceremony in Hsinchu on July 28, 2023. (Photo by Amber Wang / AFP)

Amber Wang | Afp | Getty Images

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company‘s fourth-quarter revenue and profit beat expectations, as demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence applications continued to surge.

Here are TSMC’s fourth-quarter results versus LSEG consensus estimates:

  • Net revenue: 868.46 billion New Taiwan dollars ($26.36 billion), vs. NT$850.08 billion expected
  • Net income: NT$374.68 billion, vs. NT$366.61 billion expected

TSMC profit rose 57% from a year earlier to a record high, while revenue jumped 38.8%. The firm had forecast fourth-quarter revenue between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion.

As the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer TSMC produces advanced processors for clients such as Nvidia and Apple and has benefited from the megatrend in favor of AI.

TSMC’s high-performance computing division, which encompasses artificial intelligence and 5G applications, drove sales in the fourth quarter, contributing 53% of revenue. That HPC revenue was up 19% from the previous quarter.

“The surging demand for AI chips has exceeded expectations in Q4,” Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research told CNBC, adding that revenue was also bolstered by demand for the advanced chips in Apple’s latest iPhone 16 model.

The Taiwan-based company first released its December revenue last week, bringing its annual total to NT$ 2.9 trillion — a record-breaking year in sales since the company went public in 1994.

“We observed robust AI related demand from our customers throughout 2024,” Wendell Huang, chief financial officer and vice president at TSMC, said in an earnings call on Thursday, adding that revenue from AI accelerator products accounted for “close to a mid-teens percentage” of total revenue in 2024.

“Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI accelerators to double in 2025 as a strong surge in AI-related demand continues as a key enabler of AI applications,” Huang added.

However, TSMC may face some headwinds in 2025 from U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor shipments to China and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy of President-elect Donald Trump.

TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said the company will not attend Trump’s inauguration as its philosophy is to keep a low profile, Reuters reported.

Trump, who will assume office next week, has threatened to impose broad tariffs on imports and has previously accused Taiwan of “stealing” the U.S. chip business. .

Still, Counterpoint’s Wang forecasts 2025 to be another strong year for TSMC, with significant revenue growth fueled by strong and expanding demand for AI applications, both in diversity and volume.

Taiwan-listed shares of TSMC gained 81% in 2024 and were trading 3.75% higher on Thursday.

Stocks of European semiconductor companies trading on the Euronext Amsterdam Stock Exchange rose Thursday, with ASML up 3.5%, ASM International gaining 3.75% and Besi rising 5.1%.

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