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A number of factors are behind bitcoin’s New Year rise, according to analysts, including an increased probability of interest rates being lowered and purchases by large buyers known as “whales.”

Filip Radwanski | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Bitcoin has begun 2023 on a positive note, with the price of the world’s largest digital token up roughly 26% since the start of January.

On Saturday, bitcoin’s price rose above $21,000 per coin for the first time since Nov. 7.

It’s still a far cry from the $68,990 record high bitcoin notched in Nov. 2021. But it has given market players cause for some optimism.

The month-to-date rally follows a grim 2022, which saw major insolvencies and scandals in the crypto industry, including the collapse of FTX, and a sharp pullback in the broader market linked to central bank actions.

Analysts say that a number of factors are behind bitcoin’s New Year rise, including an increased probability of interest rates being lowered, as well as purchases by large buyers known as “whales.”

New Year, new monetary policy?

Inflation is cooling down, and economic indicators suggest slowing U.S. economic activity. That’s made traders optimistic the Federal Reserve could reverse, or at least soften, its rate hiking strategy.

FTX's collapse is shaking crypto to its core. The pain may not be over

Last week, fresh U.S. inflation data showed a modest retreat, with the consumer price index decreasing 0.1% in December on a monthly basis, in line with Dow Jones estimates.

“Bitcoin looks to have recoupled with macro data as investors shrug off the FTX collapse,” James Butterfill, head of research at digital asset management firm CoinShares, told CNBC by email.

“The most important macro data investors are focussing on is the weak services PMI and the trending down of employment and wage data. This coupled with downwards trend in inflation has led to improving confidence, while it comes at a time when valuations for Bitcoin … are close to all time lows. The prospect of looser monetary policy off the back of weaker macro data and low valuations is what has led this rally.”

The Fed lifted borrowing rates seven times in 2022, forcing risky assets such as stocks — and tech stocks, in particular — into a tailspin. In December, the benchmark funds rate increased to 4.25%-4.50%, reaching its highest level since 2007.

Bitcoin has been caught up in the market drama around lending rates, as it is increasingly viewed by investors as a risky asset.

Backers previously talked up bitcoin’s potential as a “hedge” to buy in times of high inflation. But bitcoin failed to achieve that aim in 2022, instead slipping more than 60% as the U.S. and other major economies grappled with higher rates and living costs.

Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank, said in a Jan. 13 note that this was “brewing a hope amongst market participants that the Fed will further slow down on the pace of rate hikes.”

The Fed is likely to keep interest rates high for the time being. However, some market players are hopeful that central banks will start easing the pace of rate rises, or even slash rates. Some economists predict a Fed rate cut could happen as soon as this year.

That’s as the risk of a recession is also playing on central bankers’ minds.

Some two-thirds of chief economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum believe a global recession is likely in 2023, according to research released by the Davos organizer on Monday.

The U.S. dollar has also sagged, with the greenback down 9% against a basket of currencies used by U.S. trade partners in the last three months. The majority of bitcoin trades against USD, making a weaker dollar better for bitcoin.

“We are seeing the dollar put in a top, inflation easing, interest rate hikes slowing down – all pointing to markets getting more risk-on over the next few months,” Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at crypto exchange Luno, told CNBC.

‘Whales’ buying BTC

Larger purchasers of digital coins known as “whales” may be leading the latest rally in bitcoin, according to Kaiko.

The crypto data firm said in a series of tweets Monday that trade sizes had climbed from an average of $700 on Jan. 8 to $1,100 today on the crypto exchange Binance, indicating renewed confidence in the market by whales.

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Whales are investors who’ve hoarded large piles of bitcoin. Some are individuals, like MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor and Silicon Valley investor Tim Draper. Others are entities such as market makers, which act as the middlemen in trades between buyers and sellers.

Skeptics of digital currencies say this makes the market prone to manipulation by a select few investors with large piles of tokens. The wealthiest 97 bitcoin wallet addresses account for 14.15% of the total supply, according to fintech firm River Financial.

In December, Carol Alexander, a professor at the University of Sussex, told CNBC that bitcoin could see a “managed bull market” in 2023 in which bitcoin travels north of $30,000 in the first quarter, and to $50,000 in the second half. Her reasoning was that with trading volumes evaporating, and the level of fear in the market extremely high, whales would then step in to prop up the market.

Bitcoin mining difficulty rising

There are other factors at play, as well.

Several bitcoin miners have been flushed out by the drop in prices. Bitcoin miners, who use power-intensive machines to verify transactions and mint new tokens, have been squeezed by the slump in prices and rising energy costs.

That’s historically a good sign for bitcoin, according to Ayyar.

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These actors accumulate massive piles of digital currency, making them some of the biggest sellers in the market. With miners offloading their holdings to pay off debts, that removes much of the remaining selling pressure on bitcoin.

More recently, however, bitcoin’s network “difficulty” has been increasing, meaning more computing power is being deployed to unleash new tokens into circulation.

Mining difficulty reached a record 37.6 trillion on Sunday, according to BTC.com data, meaning that, on average, it would take 37.6 trillion hashes, or attempts, to find a valid bitcoin block and add it to the blockchain.

“Bitcoin mining difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to create the next block of transactions,” said Marcus Sotiriou, market analyst at digital asset broker GlobalBlock, told CNBC.

“Bitcoin mining difficulty fell 3.6% before the last update, after a winter storm led some miners to shut down. However, now miners appear to have come back online, with new and more efficient machines.”

2024 ‘halving’

Meanwhile, events further down the crypto calendar could give traders cause for some New Year cheer. It is still a year away, but the so-called bitcoin “halving” is an event that often leads to excitement for crypto investors.

The halving, where bitcoin rewards to miners are cut in half, is viewed by some investors as positive for bitcoin’s price as it squeezes supply.

“There are signs this could be the beginning of a new cycle with Bitcoin, as it typically does around 15-18 months before halving,” Ayyar told CNBC. 

The next halving is slated to happen sometime between March and May of 2024.

However, Ayyar cautioned, “At this point, we’re in overbought territory with Bitcoin and hence could definitely see a dip.” Prices could go for a dip if bitcoin closes below $18,000 in the next few days, he added.

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Uber inks six-year robotaxi deal with Lucid, invests $300 million in EV company

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Uber inks six-year robotaxi deal with Lucid, invests 0 million in EV company

An autonomous robotaxi from Uber’s partnership with Lucid and autonomous vehicle startup, Nuro.

Courtesy: Nick Twork | Lucid

Uber on Thursday announced a partnership to deploy more than 20,000 robotaxis over the next six years as demand for driverless cars kicks into high gear.

As part of the partnership, the ride-hailing company is teaming up with Lucid, the electric vehicle maker, and Nuro, an autonomous vehicle startup. Under the agreement, Uber will invest $300 million in Lucid. Nuro will develop the self-driving technology that Lucid will use to supply Uber with robotaxis over the course of the deal and receive a multi-hundred-million-dollar investment.

Lucid stock popped 30% Thursday. Uber shares were marginally higher.

The companies plan to launch the robotaxis in a major U.S. urban hub next year.

“We’re thrilled to partner with Nuro and Lucid on this new robotaxi program, purpose-built just for the Uber platform, to safely bring the magic of autonomous driving to more people across the world,” said Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi in a statement.

In an interview with CNBC, Lucid interim CEO Marc Winterhoff called the partnership an opportunity for the EV maker to compete in a “completely new” addressable market it has yet to penetrate.

Read more CNBC tech news

Nuro, which is backed by Google and the SoftBank Vision Fund, will provide “level 4 self-driving system” software for the cars. The technology can drive passengers under normal traffic and weather conditions without a human behind the wheel.

The partnership with Lucid and Nuro follows Uber’s alliance with Alphabet-backed Waymo. The two companies expanded their service to Atlanta and Austin, Texas, earlier this year.

Waymo’s vehicles are also considered Level 4, as defined by SAE Levels of Driving Automation. Tesla sells cars today equipped with Autopilot and FSD Supervised systems that fall into the level 2 category, requiring a human at the wheel. Elon Musk‘s EV company debuted a robotaxi pilot test in Austin in June.

Lucid said the 450-mile range for its Gravity vehicles should help cut costs and charge times while improving accessibility. Winterhoff said the program may eventually include future Lucid vehicles currently in development.

“We’ve been chosen because of our EV technology leadership,” he said.

Testing for the first prototype vehicle is underway on a closed circuit at Nuro’s Las Vegas-based proving grounds. In April, the startup raised $106 million in a funding round from T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, Tiger Global and Greylock.

The deal is a “blueprint for a robotaxi program that’s both commercially viable and globally scalable,” Nuro said in a statement to CNBC.

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Uber has nothing but tailwinds at its back, says Needham's Bernie McTernan

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Crypto theft is booming as criminals increasingly turn to physical attacks

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Crypto theft is booming as criminals increasingly turn to physical attacks

Digital currency thefts are on the rise.

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto via Getty Images

The value of cryptocurrencies stolen by criminals surged in the first six months of 2025 after a high-profile hack and a wave of physical attacks targeting crypto holders and their relatives.

So far this year, $2.17 billion has been stolen from crypto services — already eclipsing the $1.87 billion of funds stolen from platforms in 2024 — and this is expected to reach $4 billion by the end of 2025, according to a report published Thursday by blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis.

Overall, the combined value of digital tokens stolen from both crypto platforms and individuals hit more than $2.8 billion and is already approaching the $3.4 billion in crypto stolen last year.

The bulk of the funds stolen from services came from February’s cyberattack on Dubai crypto exchange Bybit, which saw North Korea-linked hackers make off with $1.5 billion. It’s estimated to be the largest crypto heist in history.

However, the rise in stolen crypto assets was also driven by a spike in attacks on individual crypto wallets. Personal wallets accounted for over 23% of total thefts, with attackers increasingly turning to physical violence and coercion to access funds, Chainalysis said.

In January, David Balland, a co-founder of crypto wallet firm Ledger, was kidnapped with his wife from their home in central France. Before they were freed, the attackers cut off Balland’s finger and sent footage of it to his fellow co-founder Eric Larcheveque demanding ransom money.

Separately, in May, the father of a crypto entrepreneur was taken in broad daylight by four men wearing ski masks. The kidnappers demanded a ransom of several million euros and cut off one of the man’s fingers. He was freed by police days later.

Eric Jardine, cybercrimes research lead at Chainalysis, told CNBC that the rise in crypto-related thefts was primarily being driven by increasing crypto adoption and price appreciation.

“Adoption means there are more services and users in the crypto ecosystem, making thefts more common. Price appreciation means that services and individuals in crypto have more USD value to lose, even if the total assets stolen are relatively constant over time,” Jardine said via email.

Read more CNBC tech news

Jardine suggested that the uptick in attacks on individual crypto holders could relate to the fact that crypto trading services are beefing up their security.

“If services become better at security, malicious actors will potentially move to targeting individual wallet holders and trade off a single large-scale heist in favor of a large number of smaller-scale victimizations,” he said.

Meanwhile, rising wealth accumulated through holdings of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin has resulted in a rise in crypto influencers flaunting their lifestyle on social media platforms.

Jardine stressed it was important not to blame the victims of physical crypto-related attacks, adding that “showy displays of wealth can quite obviously attract the attention of a bad actor when compared to a more modest outward facing lifestyle.”

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Crypto accumulator DeFi Development to expand globally by franchising its Solana treasury model

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Crypto accumulator DeFi Development to expand globally by franchising its Solana treasury model

Omar Marques | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

DeFi Development, a company vying to be the MicroStrategy of Solana, is expanding internationally through a franchise model.

The company plans to partner with others looking to operate their own Solana treasuries with DeFi’s support. In return, DeFi Development will retain an equity stake in each regional vehicle. The initiative will be branded DFDV Treasury Accelerator.

“Most crypto treasury vehicles today are following the MicroStrategy model. What excites us about DFDV is that they’re not just copying the playbook. They’re evolving it,” said Cosmo Jiang, general partner at investor Pantera Capital. “By combining validator infrastructure, capital markets innovation, and now international expansion via a global franchising model, DFDV is building something structurally different and ahead of the curve.”

Pantera was also an anchor investor in Bitmine Immersion Technologies, an ether treasury firm backed by Peter Thiel and chaired by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. Kraken, Arrington, RK Capital and Borderless Capital may also support the franchise initiative through a potential investment and treasury and fundraising guidance, as well as infrastructure – which could include validator and custody solutions.

The move comes amid an explosion in companies pursuing crypto treasury strategies or merging with public entities to be able to emulate MicroStrategy’s success investing in bitcoin. In addition to Bitmine, the publicly listed betting platform SharpLink Gaming in May initiated an ether treasury strategy and appointed Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin as chairman of its board. Bit Digital recently exited bitcoin mining to focus on its ETH treasury and staking plans.

Solana is a five-year-old public blockchain platform that promises to provide fast transaction speeds as well as low fees for developers and users. Solana’s value is up 7% over the past year, with a nearly 10% gain within the past month, according to Coin Metrics.

In addition to accumulating Solana tokens, the company will acquire validators (the computers that help run the Solana network by verifying transactions) that can be used to “stake” the tokens. Through staking, users earn rewards for locking up SOL tokens on the network.

DeFi Development this week introduced its first SOL per share guidance, saying it plans to reach 1 SOL per share by 2028. With 857,749 SOL held currently and 18.8 million shares outstanding, its SOL per share stands at 0.0457, it said.

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