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The below is an excerpt from a recent year-ahead report written by the Bitcoin Magazine PRO analysts. Download the entire report here.

Bitcoin Magazine PRO sees incredibly strong fundamentals in the Bitcoin network and we are laser-focused on its market dynamic in the context of macroeconomic trends. Bitcoin aims to become the world reserve currency, an investment opportunity that cannot be understated.

In our year-ahead report, we analyzed seven notable factors that we recommend investors pay attention to in the coming months.Convicted Bitcoin Investors

We can put investor conviction into perspective by looking at the number of unique Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.01, 0.1 and 1 bitcoin. This data shows that bitcoin adoption continues to grow with a growing number of unique addresses holding at least these amounts of bitcoin. While it is entirely possible for individual users to hold their bitcoin in multiple addresses, the growth of unique Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.01, 0.1 and 1 bitcoin indicate that more users than ever before are buying bitcoin and holding it in self-custody.

Unique bitcoin addresses continues to grow across the board.

Another promising metric is the amount held by long-term holders, which has increased to almost 14 million bitcoin. Long-term holder supply is calculated using a threshold of a 155-day holding period, after which dormant coins become increasingly unlikely to be spent. As of now, 72.49% of the bitcoin in circulation is not likely to be sold at these prices.

Long-term holder supply reached 72.52% of the circulating bitcoin supply.

There is a large subset of bitcoin investors who are accumulating the digital asset no matter the price. In a December 2022 interview on “Going Digital,” Head of Market Research Dylan LeClair said, “You have people all over the world that are acquiring this asset and you have a huge and growing cohort of people that are price-agnostic accumulators.”

With a growing number of unique addresses holding bitcoin and such a significant amount of bitcoin being held by long-term investors, we are optimistic for bitcoin’s advancement and rate of adoption. There are many variables that demonstrate the potential for asymmetric returns as demand for bitcoin increases and adoption increases worldwide.Total Addressable Market

During monetization, a currency goes through three phases in order: store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account. Bitcoin is currently in its store-of-value phase as demonstrated by the long-term holder metrics above. Other assets that are frequently used as stores of value are real estate, gold and equities. Bitcoin is a better store of value for many reasons: it is more liquid, easier to access, transport and secure, easier to audit and more finitely scarce than any other asset with its hard-cap limit of 21 million coins. For bitcoin to acquire a larger share of other global stores of value, these properties need to remain intact and prove themselves in the eyes of investors.

Estimations of global stores of wealth.

As readers can see, bitcoin is a tiny fraction of global wealth. Should bitcoin take even a 1% share from these other stores of value, the market cap would be $5.9 trillion, putting bitcoin at over $300,000 per coin. These are conservative numbers from our viewpoint because we estimate that bitcoin adoption will happen gradually, and then suddenly.Transfer Volume

When looking at the amount of value that was cleared on the Bitcoin network throughout its history, there is a clear upward trend in USD terms with a heightened demand for transferring bitcoin this year. In 2022, there was a change-adjusted transfer volume of over 556 million bitcoin settled on the Bitcoin network, up 102% from 2021. In USD terms, the Bitcoin network settled just shy of $15 trillion in value in 2022. 

Bitcoin transfer volume was higher than ever in USD terms.

Bitcoin’s censorship resistance is an extremely valuable feature as the world enters into a period of deglobalization. With a market capitalization of only $324 billion, we believe bitcoin is severely undervalued. Despite the drop in price, the Bitcoin network transferred more value in USD terms than ever before.Rare Opportunity In Bitcoin’s Price

By looking at certain metrics, we can analyze the unique opportunity investors have to purchase bitcoin at these prices. The bitcoin realized market cap is down 18.8% from all-time highs, which is the second-largest drawdown in its history. While the macroeconomic factors are something to keep in mind, we believe that this is a rare buying opportunity.

The realized cap drawdown in 2022 was the second largest in bitcoin's history.

Relative to its history, bitcoin is at the phase of the cycle where it’s about as cheap as it gets. Its current market exchange rate is approximately 20% lower than its average cost basis on-chain, which has only happened at or near the local bottom of bitcoin market cycles.

Current prices of bitcoin are in rare territory for investors looking to get in at a low exchange rate. Historically, purchasing bitcoin during these times has brought tremendous returns in the long term. With that said, readers should consider the reality that 2023 likely brings about bitcoin’s first experience with a prolonged economic recession.Macroeconomic Environment

As we move into 2023, it’s necessary to recognize the state of the geopolitical landscape because macro is the driving force behind economic growth. People around the world are experiencing a monetary policy lag effect from last year’s central bank decisions. The U.S. and EU are in recessionary territory, China is proceeding to de-dollarize and the Bank of Japan raised its target rate for yield curve control. All of these have a large influence on capital markets.

Nothing in financial markets occurs in a vacuum. Bitcoin’s ascent through 2020 and 2021 — while similar to previous crypto-native market cycles — was very much tied to the explosion of liquidity sloshing around the financial system after COVID. While 2020 and 2021 was characterized by the insertion of additional liquidity, 2022 has been characterized by the removal of liquidity.

Interestingly enough, when denominating bitcoin against U.S. Treasury bonds (which we believe to be bitcoin’s largest theoretical competitor for monetary value over the long term), comparing the drawdown during 2022 was rather benign compared to drawdowns in bitcoin’s history. 

As we wrote in “The Everything Bubble: Markets At A Crossroads,” “Despite the recent bounce in stocks and bonds, we aren’t convinced that we have seen the worst of the deflationary pressures from the global liquidity cycle.”

In “The Bank of Japan Blinks And Markets Tremble,” we noted, “As we continue to refer to the sovereign debt bubble, readers should understand what this dramatic upward repricing in global yields means for asset prices. As bond yields remain at elevated levels far above recent years, asset valuations based on discounted cash flows fall.” Bitcoin does not rely on cash flows, but it will certainly be impacted by this repricing of global yields. We believe we are currently at the third bullet point of the following playing out:

Source: Dylan LeClairBitcoin Mining And Infrastructure

While the multitude of negative industry and worrying macroeconomic factors have had a major dampening on bitcoin’s price, looking at the metrics of the Bitcoin network itself tell another story. The hash rate and mining difficulty gives a glimpse into how many ASICs are dedicating hashing power to the network and how competitive it is to mine bitcoin. These numbers move in tandem and both have almost exclusively gone up in 2022, despite the significant drop in price.

Bitcoin mining difficulty continues to rise.

Bitcoin hash rate continues to rise.

By deploying more machines and investing in expanded infrastructure, bitcoin miners demonstrate that they are more bullish than ever. The last time the bitcoin price was in a similar range in 2017, the network hash rate was one-fifth of current levels. This means that there has been a fivefold increase in bitcoin mining machines being plugged in and efficiency upgrades to the machines themselves, not to mention the major investments in facilities and data centers to house the equipment.

Because the hash rate increased while the bitcoin price decreased, miner revenue took a beating this year after a euphoric rise in 2021. Public miner stock valuations followed the same path with valuations falling even more than the bitcoin price, all while the Bitcoin network’s hash rate continued to rise. In the “State Of The Mining Industry: Survival Of The Fittest,” we looked at the total market capitalization of public miners which fell by over 90% since January 2021.

The market cap of all public mining equities has dropped by 9

We expect more of these companies to face challenging conditions because of the skyrocketing global energy prices and interest rates mentioned above.Increasing Scarcity

One way to analyze bitcoin’s scarcity is by looking at the illiquid supply of coins. Liquidity is quantified as the extent to which an entity spends their bitcoin. Someone that never sells has a liquidity value of 0 whereas someone who buys and sells bitcoin all the time has a value of 1. With this quantification, circulating supply can be broken down into three categories: highly liquid, liquid and illiquid supply.

Illiquid supply is defined as entities that hold over 75% of the bitcoin they deposit to an address. Highly liquid supply is defined as entities that hold less than 25%. Liquid supply is between the two. This illiquid supply quantification and analysis was developed by Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder and CTO of Glassnode.

Bitcoin's illiquid supply continues to grow.

2022 was the year of getting bitcoin off exchanges. Every recent major panic became a catalyst for more individuals and institutions to move coins into their own custody, find custody solutions outside of exchanges or sell off their bitcoin entirely. When centralized institutions and counterparty risks are flashing red, people rush for the exit. We can see some of this behavior through bitcoin outflows from exchanges.

In 2022, 572,118 bitcoin worth $9.6 billion left exchanges, marking it the largest annual outflow of bitcoin in BTC terms in history. In USD terms, it was second only to 2020, which was driven by the March 2020 COVID crash. 11.68% of bitcoin supply is now estimated to be on exchanges, down from 16.88% back in 2019. 

Exchanges saw a massive decrease in the bitcoin balances on their platforms.

Bitcoin balance on exchanges decreased in 2022.

These metrics of an increasingly illiquid supply paired with historic amounts of bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges — ostensibly being removed from the market — paint a different picture than what we’re seeing with the factors outside of the Bitcoin network’s purview. While there are unanswered questions from a macroeconomic perspective, bitcoin miners continue to invest in equipment and on-chain data shows that bitcoin holders aren’t planning to relinquish their bitcoin anytime soon.Conclusion

The varying factors detailed above give a picture for why we are long-term bullish on the bitcoin price going into 2023. The Bitcoin network continues to add another block approximately every 10 minutes, more miners keep investing in infrastructure by plugging in machines and long-term holders are unwavering in their conviction, as shown by on-chain data.

With bitcoin’s ever-increasing scarcity, the supply side of this equation is fixed, while demand is likely to increase. Bitcoin investors can get ahead of the demand curve by averaging in while the price is low. It’s important for investors to take the time to learn how Bitcoin works to fully understand what it is they are investing in. Bitcoin is the first digitally native and finitely scarce bearer asset. We recommend readers learn about self-custody and withdraw their bitcoin from exchanges. Despite the negative news cycle and drop in bitcoin price, our bullish conviction for bitcoin’s long-term value proposition remains unfazed.

For the full report, follow this link to subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine PRO.

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‘I have nightmares of dead bodies’: Patients dying and undiscovered for hours in hospital corridors

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'I have nightmares of dead bodies': Patients dying and undiscovered for hours in hospital corridors

Patients are dying in corridors and going undiscovered for hours while the sick are left to soil themselves, nurses have said, revealing the scale of the corridor crisis inside the UK’s hospitals.

In a “harrowing” report built from the experiences of more than 5,000 NHS nursing staff, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) found almost seven in 10 (66.81%) say they are delivering care in overcrowded or unsuitable places, including converted cupboards, corridors and even car parks, on a daily basis.

Demoralised staff are looking after as many as 40 patients in a single corridor, unable to access oxygen, cardiac monitors, suction and other lifesaving equipment.

Women are miscarrying in corridors, while some nurses report being unable to carry out adequate CPR on patients having heart attacks.

Sara (not her real name) said she was on shift when a doctor told her there was a dying patient who had been waiting in the hospital’s corridor for six hours.

“It took a further two hours to get her into an adequate care space to make her clean and comfortable,” she told Sky News.

“That’s a human being, someone in the last hours of their life in the middle of a corridor with a detoxing patient vomiting and being abusive behind them and a very poorly patient in front of them, who was confused, screaming in pain. It was awful on the family, and it was awful on the patient.”

More on Nhs

Dead patients ‘not found for hours’

A nurse working in the southeast of England quit her job after witnessing an elderly lady in “animal-like conditions”.

She told the RCN: “A 90-year-old lady with dementia was scared, crying and urinating in the bed after asking several times for help to the toilet. Seeing that lady, frightened and subjected to animal-like conditions is what broke me.

“At the end of that shift, I handed in my notice with no job to go to. I will not work where this is a normal day-to-day occurrence.”

Another nurse in the South East said a patient died in a corridor and “wasn’t discovered for hours”.

Sara told Sky another woman needed resuscitating after the oxygen underneath her trolley ran out. Sara was one of just two nurses caring for more than 30 patients on that corridor.

“I have had nightmares – I have a nightmare that I walk out in the corridor and there are dead bodies in body bags on the trolleys,” she said, growing visibly emotional.

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No electricity to plug in computers

One nurse, who spoke to Sky News, said the conditions were “undignified” and “inhumane”.

“It’s not just corridors – we utilise chairs, cupboards, whatever space is available in the hospital to be repurposed into a care space, in the loosest sense of that term. These spaces are unsafe.”

Some spaces, she said, don’t even have basic electricity for nurses to plug in their computers.

The nurse, who spoke to Sky on the condition of anonymity, said she has experienced burnout multiple times over the state of her workplace.

“I have come to the conclusion this week I don’t think I can continue working in the NHS or as a nurse,” she said.

“It breaks my soul; I love what I do when I am able to do it in the right way. I like caring for people, I like making people better, I also like providing a dignified death.”

She added: “I want to look after the institution I was born into, but for the sake of my family and my mental health, I don’t know how much more I can give.”

With 32,000 nursing vacancies in England alone, data also shows around one in eight nurses leave the profession within five years of qualifying.

Nurses are being forced to provide care in hospital corridors and car parks. Pic: PA
Image:
Nurses are being forced to provide care in hospital corridors and car parks. Pic: PA

Staff ‘not proud of the care they are giving’

The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) says the testimony, which runs to over 400 pages, must mark a “moment in time”. In May 2024, the RCN declared a “national emergency” over corridor care in NHS services.

Professor Nicola Ranger, RCN general secretary and chief executive, said: “At the moment, [nursing staff] are not proud of the care they are giving.”

“We hear stories of escalation areas and temporary beds that have been open for two years,” she added. “That is no longer escalation, it’s understaffed and underfunded capacity that is pretty shocking care for patients. We have to get a grip on that.”

Read more: Hospital advertises for corridor nurse amid NHS winter crisis

She called the situation “a disgrace”, citing abuse of staff as another reason for people leaving the profession in droves.

Last week, a nurse was left with “life-changing injuries” after being stabbed by a man while at work.

“The NHS used to be the envy of the world and we need to take a long hard look at ourselves and say ‘what needs to change?’

“The biggest concern for us is that the public Is starting to lose a little faith in their care, and that has to stop. We absolutely have to sort this out.”

Commenting on the RCN’s report, Duncan Burton, chief nursing officer for England, said the NHS had experienced one of the “toughest winters” in recent months, and the report “should never be considered the standard to which the NHS aspires”.

“Despite the challenges the NHS faces, we are seeing extraordinary efforts from staff who are doing everything they can to provide safe, compassionate care every day,” he added. “As a nurse, I know how distressing it can be when you are unable to provide the very best standards of care for patients.”

Have you experienced corridor care in an NHS hospital? Get in touch on NHSstories@sky.uk

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Tesla is offering Cybertruck discounts as EV market gets crowded

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Tesla is offering Cybertruck discounts as EV market gets crowded

A soldier walks next to a Tesla Cybertruck, which was donated to the National Guard, after powerful winds fueling devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area forced people to evacuate, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood on the west side of Los Angeles, California, U.S. Jan. 13, 2025. 

Daniel Cole | Reuters

Tesla started offering discounts on new Cybertruck vehicles in its inventory this week, according to listings on the company’s website.

Discounts are as high as $1,600 off new Cybertrucks, with the reduced price depending on configuration, and up to around $2,600 for demo versions of the trucks in inventory, the listings show. Production of the angular, unpainted steel pickups has reportedly slowed in recent weeks at Tesla’s factory in Austin, Texas.

Deliveries of the unconventional pickup began reaching customers in 2023. CEO Elon Musk originally unveiled the Cybertruck in 2019 and said it would cost around $40,000, but its base price in the U.S. was closer to $80,000 over the course of 2024.

Wall Street previously viewed the Cybertruck as an important driver of growth for Tesla’s core automotive sales.

While the Cybertruck outsold the Ford Lightning F-150 last year in the U.S. and became the fifth best-selling EV domestically, according to data tracked by Cox Automotive, its high price, repeat recalls and production issues in Austin hampered growth. In November, Tesla initiated its sixth recall in a year  to replace defective drive inverters.

As CNBC previously reported, Tesla’s deliveries declined slightly year-over-year in 2024, even as EV demand worldwide reached a record. A slew of new competitive models from a wide range of automakers eroded Tesla’s market share.

According to Cox data, full-year EV sales reached an estimated 1.3 million in 2024 in the U.S., an increase of 7.3% from the prior year. But Tesla’s sales for the year declined by about 37,000 vehicles.

The Tesla Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan ranked as the top two best-selling EVs by a wide margin. But both older, more affordable Tesla models saw sales drop from the previous year. Cox estimated Tesla sold around 38,965 Cybertrucks in the U.S. last year.

In recent days, Musk apologized to customers in California for delays in delivering their Cybertrucks. He said the trucks are now being used to bring supplies and wireless internet service to people in Los Angeles impacted by devastating wildfires.

“Apologies to those expecting Cybertruck deliveries in California over the next few days,” Musk wrote on X. “We need to use those trucks as mobile base stations to provide power to Starlink Internet terminals in areas of LA without connectivity. A new truck will be delivered end of week.”

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Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon says IPO market is ‘going to pick up’ along with dealmaking

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Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon says IPO market is 'going to pick up' along with dealmaking

David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, speaks during the Reuters NEXT conference, in New York City, U.S., December 10, 2024. 

Mike Segar | Reuters

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says there’s an end in sight to the multi-year IPO drought.

“It’s going to pick up,” Solomon said on Wednesday, in an on-stage interview with Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins at a summit hosted by the computer networking company in Silicon Valley. “It’s been slow, it’s been turned off.”

Solomon, who flew to California for the event just after his Wall Street bank reported fourth-quarter results that blew past analysts’ estimates, said the capital markets broadly are showing signs of life ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration next week.

The tech IPO market has largely been dormant since the end of 2021, when tech stocks started falling out of favor due to soaring inflation and rising interest rates. Mergers and acquisitions have been difficult in technology because of hefty regulation that’s restricted the ability for the biggest companies to grow through dealmaking.

Solomon said the mood is changing, and he expects momentum M&A as well as in IPOs.

“We have a more constructive kind of optimism, which always helps,” Solomon said. He later added that, “broadly speaking, I think it’s an improved business environment.”

Earlier in the day, Solomon said on his company’s earnings call that Trump’s election and a swing back to Republican power in Washington is already starting to make an impact in the business world. He noted on the call that “there is a significant backlog from sponsors and an overall increased appetite for dealmaking supported by an improved regulatory backdrop.”

Solomon’s comments on the call and at the Cisco event came on a day when the S&P 500 posted his biggest gain since November, helped by a tame inflation report and Goldman’s results. Goldman’s stock popped 6% on Wednesday.

While the stock market has had a strong two-year run and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records last month, IPOs have yet to see a resurgence. Cloud software vendor ServiceTitan debuted on the Nasdaq in December, marking the first significant venture-backed IPO in the U.S. since Rubrik in April.

“The values came down after 2021, people are growing back into those values,” Solomon said at the Cisco summit.

Some companies have said they’re ready. Chipmaker Cerebras filed to go public in September, but the process was slowed down due to a review by the Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., or CFIUS. In November, online lender Klarna said it had confidentially filed IPO paperwork with the SEC.

Though he’s bullish about what’s coming, Solomon said that there are structural reasons not to go public. He said 25 years ago there were roughly 13,000 public companies in the U.S., and today that number has come down to 3,800. There are higher standards around disclosure for being public, and there’s now tons of private capital available “at scale.”

“It’s not fun being a public company,” Solomon acknowledged. “Who would want to be a public company?”

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Goldman Sachs tops estimates on strong trading results

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