China ‘more likely’ to invade Taiwan – and attack could come in 2027, island’s foreign minister Joseph Wu warns
Taiwan’s foreign minister has said he believes China is now “more likely” to invade Taiwan to distract from leader Xi Jinping’s domestic problems.
Speaking exclusively to Sky News in his first sit-down interview of the year, Joseph Wu set 2027 as the key date such action will most likely happen.
His words come at a time when tensions across the Taiwan strait are the highest they’ve been for many years, with China now flying fighter jets towards Taiwanese airspace on a daily basis.
Mr Wu also said that the current “status quo” arrangement, in which Taiwan is self-governing but does not officially declare independence, “might not last forever”, in a rare acknowledgement that the island might one day either be assimilated by China or become an independent country.
Taiwan is a democratic, self-governing island that China sees as its own.
Despite it having never been controlled by the governing Communist Party, bringing Taiwan under Chinese control has been described by President Xi Jinping as at the “core of China’s core interests”.
Mr Wu acknowledged that “the situation in the last year compared to the two previous years is much worse”, but said: “To me, 2027 is the year that we need to watch out for.”
Read more:
Could Taiwan be the next Ukraine?
China shows off jets once shrouded in secrecy
Watch how civilians are preparing for war in Taiwan
“In 2027, Xi Jinping is likely to go into his fourth term, and, if in his previous three terms he cannot claim any achievement during his office, he might need to think about something else for him to claim as his achievement or his legacy.
“If you look at the Chinese situation right now, the economy is going down. People are not happy, the real estate business seems to be melting down.
“If Xi Jinping cannot change the situation domestically in China, you might want to resort to a use of force or creating a crisis externally to divert domestic attention or to show to the Chinese that he has accomplished something.
“We are concerned that Taiwan might become his scapegoat.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
China conducted military drills near Taiwan last year
‘A tiny little accident might spark major war’
Chinese fighter jets are now flying towards Taiwanese airspace and crossing the so-called ‘median line’ – the unofficial maritime border – on a daily basis.
The number increased five-fold between 2020 and 2022 with the highest ever daily count recorded just three weeks ago.
Mr Wu said that the “worst case scenario” happening is now “more likely” than in previous years, and described how precarious the situation can be.
“Look at the proximity of the Chinese aircraft to our aircraft,” he said.
“If they cross the 24 nautical miles zone, some of our weapons systems might have to target those Chinese aircraft, and that might spark an accident, even though it might not be intentional for the Chinese pilots to cross the 24 nautical miles.
“Very often, you see the sum of a tiny little accident might spark into a major war.
“We worry that might happen.”
The only thing to prevent that sudden escalation now, he added, is “self-restraint”.
“Our pilots are very well-trained; they know they cannot fire the first shot,” Mr Wu said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
China shows off military might during November air show
Is Taiwan prepared for a war against China?
There have been suggestions from military experts that Taiwan is not well enough prepared if war did come to the island.
Taiwan only spends 2.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, which is lower than countries like the United States and around half the amount spent by Israel.
According to analysis, it also does not have enough munitions, struggles to meet recruitment quotas within the armed forces and has not focused enough on the kind of asymmetric capabilities it would need to fight a war with China.
The foreign minister rejected the idea Taiwan is complacent, but acknowledged it has previously been slow to prepare.
“We understand that in previous years, we might not have acquired sufficient ammunition,” he said.
Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts
“In previous years, we might not have sufficient training for our military personnel. And in previous years, we understand that the number of our soldiers in defending Taiwan might not be enough, but look at the reform measures the president has announced.”
Taiwan has recently extended compulsory military service from four months to a year, increased the defence budget and is attempting to kickstart domestic production of drones and missiles.
“We are trying everything we can to make Taiwan prepared, to make Taiwan capable of defending itself,” Mr Wu said.
While he insisted Taiwan would be willing to negotiate with China, he was clear that it doesn’t “welcome political preconditions”.
“Accepting those Chinese preconditions means that we are submitting to China, and that is something that the people here in Taiwan would never accept, but our door is open,” he said.
World
British survivor of Air India crash carries brother’s coffin after being discharged from hospital
A British man – the sole survivor of the Air India crash in Ahmedabad – has been discharged from hospital, the airline has confirmed.
Vishwash Kumar Ramesh, 40, has since been seen in video as a pallbearer for the coffin of his brother – one of the 241 people killed in the crash – at a funeral in western India.
At least 30 people also died on the ground as the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner struck a medical college hostel shortly after take-off from the airport in the state of Gujarat on Thursday.
In a statement, Air India said it was “in mourning for the tragic loss” of passengers and crew aboard flight AI171 and is in contact with relatives of those killed, including 52 British nationals.
It said it was working to repatriate the deceased to the UK and other parts of the world, adding: “The sole survivor of the accident, also a British national, has been discharged from hospital.”
“The investigation is ongoing,” it said. “We are cooperating with all parties involved and are committed to sharing verified information and will continue to provide updates wherever we can.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Vishwash Kumar Ramesh in hospital
On flight AI171 to Gatwick, there were 169 Indians, 53 Britons, seven Portuguese, and one Canadian among the passengers, along with 12 crew.
The only survivor, Mr Ramesh, was in seat 11A, near the emergency exit. Speaking from his hospital bed on Friday, he said he “still can’t believe” he survived.
Read more:
Families ‘feel utterly abandoned’
Who are some of the victims?
Survivor’s brother describes horror
Dozens of anxious family members are waiting to collect the bodies of loved ones as doctors work to gather dental samples and perform DNA profiling to identify victims.
Air India and the Indian government are looking at issues linked to engine thrust, flaps, and why the landing gear remained extended, or in the down position, after take-off.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Who is the Brit who survived the plane crash?
Both the cockpit voice and flight data recorders, also called black boxes, have been recovered. They will be crucial to the crash investigation, which includes air accident investigators from the UK and US.
India’s aviation safety watchdog has asked Air India for the training records of the pilots and dispatchers, while an inspection of Air India’s 787 fleet did not reveal any major issues.
While there has not been an update on the possible cause of the crash, Indian officials have raised concerns about recent maintenance-related issues reported by the airline and advised the carrier to “strictly adhere to regulations”.
World
Donald Trump’s comments about getting involved in Israel-Iran conflict are raising alarm bells in Moscow
Russia is getting nervous about Donald Trump’s trigger finger, and it shows.
Comments from deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov – warning the US against joining Israel’s military campaign – betray Moscow’s growing unease that it could be about to lose its closest Middle Eastern ally.
Russia has strong ties with Iran, which have deepened since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.
These were formalised in a strategic partnership pact the two countries signed at the start of the year.
Israel-Iran conflict – live updates
So, at first, Russia seemed to view its ally’s conflict with Israel as an opportunity to gain leverage. The Kremlin was quick to offer its services as a potential mediator.
If Vladimir Putin could persuade Tehran to back down and return to nuclear talks with Washington, he’d potentially have a favour to cash in with the White House over its military support for Ukraine.
But the offers to mediate fell on deaf ears.
And with Mr Trump threatening to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader, Moscow has switched to crisis mode – fearful of losing its second key regional ally in six months, after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
So, as well as Ryabkov, other senior figures have taken to the airwaves.
Russia’s spy chief Sergei Naryshkin called the situation “critical”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Israel-Iran conflict: Your questions answered
Read more:
Who has been targeted in Iran?
How the conflict escalated
And, according to ministry of foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, the world is “millimetres away from catastrophe” due to Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
It’s quite the spectacle – a country that’s been waging war on its neighbour for more than three years is now urging others to show military restraint.
That’s because US involvement poses serious consequences, not just for Iran, but for Russia too.
This is the highest stakes diplomacy via social media.
The American president just posted on his Truth Social platform: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding.
“He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers.
“Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Israel-Iran live: Trump says US knows where Iran’s supreme leader is ‘hiding’
It was followed minutes later by “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
In real-time, we are witnessing Donald Trump’s extreme version of maximum pressure diplomacy.
He’d probably call it the ‘art of the deal’, but bunker busters are the tool, and it comes with such huge consequences, intended and unintended, known and unknown.
Read more:
The bunker buster bomb which could destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Nuclear sites targeted in Iran
There is intentional ambiguity in the president’s messaging. His assumption is that he can apply his ‘art of the deal’ strategy to a deeply ideological geopolitical challenge.
It’s all playing out publicly. Overnight, the New York Times, via two of its best-sourced reporters, had been told that Mr Trump is weighing whether to use B-2 aircraft to drop bunker-busting bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, Axios was reporting that a meeting is possible between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.
The reporting came just as Mr Trump warned “everyone in Tehran to evacuate”. The nuclear sites being threatened with bunker busters are not in Tehran, but Trump’s words are designed to stoke tension, to confuse and to apply intense pressure.
His actions are too. He left the G7 in Canada early and asked his teams to gather in the White House Situation Room.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Trump: ‘I want an end, not a ceasefire’
This is a game of smoke, mirrors, brinkmanship and – maybe – bluff. In Tehran, what’s left of the leadership is watching and reading closely as they consider what’s next.
Maybe the Supreme Leader and his regime’s days are numbered. Things remain very unpredictable.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
From history, though, regime change, even when it comes with a plan – and there is certainly not one here, spells civil war and from that comes a refugee crisis.
These are truly tense and chaotic times.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike