China ‘more likely’ to invade Taiwan – and attack could come in 2027, island’s foreign minister Joseph Wu warns
Taiwan’s foreign minister has said he believes China is now “more likely” to invade Taiwan to distract from leader Xi Jinping’s domestic problems.
Speaking exclusively to Sky News in his first sit-down interview of the year, Joseph Wu set 2027 as the key date such action will most likely happen.
His words come at a time when tensions across the Taiwan strait are the highest they’ve been for many years, with China now flying fighter jets towards Taiwanese airspace on a daily basis.
Mr Wu also said that the current “status quo” arrangement, in which Taiwan is self-governing but does not officially declare independence, “might not last forever”, in a rare acknowledgement that the island might one day either be assimilated by China or become an independent country.
Taiwan is a democratic, self-governing island that China sees as its own.
Despite it having never been controlled by the governing Communist Party, bringing Taiwan under Chinese control has been described by President Xi Jinping as at the “core of China’s core interests”.
Mr Wu acknowledged that “the situation in the last year compared to the two previous years is much worse”, but said: “To me, 2027 is the year that we need to watch out for.”
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“In 2027, Xi Jinping is likely to go into his fourth term, and, if in his previous three terms he cannot claim any achievement during his office, he might need to think about something else for him to claim as his achievement or his legacy.
“If you look at the Chinese situation right now, the economy is going down. People are not happy, the real estate business seems to be melting down.
“If Xi Jinping cannot change the situation domestically in China, you might want to resort to a use of force or creating a crisis externally to divert domestic attention or to show to the Chinese that he has accomplished something.
“We are concerned that Taiwan might become his scapegoat.”
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China conducted military drills near Taiwan last year
‘A tiny little accident might spark major war’
Chinese fighter jets are now flying towards Taiwanese airspace and crossing the so-called ‘median line’ – the unofficial maritime border – on a daily basis.
The number increased five-fold between 2020 and 2022 with the highest ever daily count recorded just three weeks ago.
Mr Wu said that the “worst case scenario” happening is now “more likely” than in previous years, and described how precarious the situation can be.
“Look at the proximity of the Chinese aircraft to our aircraft,” he said.
“If they cross the 24 nautical miles zone, some of our weapons systems might have to target those Chinese aircraft, and that might spark an accident, even though it might not be intentional for the Chinese pilots to cross the 24 nautical miles.
“Very often, you see the sum of a tiny little accident might spark into a major war.
“We worry that might happen.”
The only thing to prevent that sudden escalation now, he added, is “self-restraint”.
“Our pilots are very well-trained; they know they cannot fire the first shot,” Mr Wu said.
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China shows off military might during November air show
Is Taiwan prepared for a war against China?
There have been suggestions from military experts that Taiwan is not well enough prepared if war did come to the island.
Taiwan only spends 2.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, which is lower than countries like the United States and around half the amount spent by Israel.
According to analysis, it also does not have enough munitions, struggles to meet recruitment quotas within the armed forces and has not focused enough on the kind of asymmetric capabilities it would need to fight a war with China.
The foreign minister rejected the idea Taiwan is complacent, but acknowledged it has previously been slow to prepare.
“We understand that in previous years, we might not have acquired sufficient ammunition,” he said.
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“In previous years, we might not have sufficient training for our military personnel. And in previous years, we understand that the number of our soldiers in defending Taiwan might not be enough, but look at the reform measures the president has announced.”
Taiwan has recently extended compulsory military service from four months to a year, increased the defence budget and is attempting to kickstart domestic production of drones and missiles.
“We are trying everything we can to make Taiwan prepared, to make Taiwan capable of defending itself,” Mr Wu said.
While he insisted Taiwan would be willing to negotiate with China, he was clear that it doesn’t “welcome political preconditions”.
“Accepting those Chinese preconditions means that we are submitting to China, and that is something that the people here in Taiwan would never accept, but our door is open,” he said.
World
Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE – as Israeli PM says he was murdered in ‘antisemitic terror incident’
The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.
The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.
Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.
It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.
But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.
Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.
“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”
The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.
The talks were rocked from the start by the incoming presidency of climate denier Mr Trump, the moment Argentina’s team were recalled back to Buenos Aires by their right-wing president and a controversial letter that sent shockwaves through the United Nations.
Pic: AP
The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.
A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.
Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.
They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.
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Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks
The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.
A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.
A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.
Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.
Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.
‘Not everything we wanted’
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The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.
“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.
“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.
“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”
Protesters at the summit in Baku. Pic: AP
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The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.
“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”
At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.
Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.
The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.
The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut
The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.
At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.
A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.
The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.
Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.
The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.
Pic: AP
Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.
Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.
According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.
It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.
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‘Dozens’ of Palestinians killed in Israeli airstrike
Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.
Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.
The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.
US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.
Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.
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