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That inflation of 10.5% should be essentially good news speaks volumes for the economic turmoil of the last year.

A second consecutive monthly fall from October’s high of 11.1% suggests price rises may have peaked and the descent towards less corrosive rates, perhaps below 6% by the middle of the year, has begun.

Some of this will be down to economic gravity, as increases that were gathering pace at the turn of last year, and accelerated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, are lapped by this year’s figures.

If inflation has peaked, however, it does not mean the worst is over for consumers; falling inflation is not the same as falling prices. It is only the rate of increase that is slowing.

A fall in diesel and petrol prices, albeit from historic highs, brought the greatest downward pressure on consumer price index (CPI) inflation, with year-on-year inflation to December falling to 6.9% from a June peak of 15.2%.

That is good for drivers at the pump and for the economy more widely, reducing the cost of supplying goods as almost nothing in the UK moves without seeing the back of a lorry.

Falling fuel costs have not been enough to curb food prices, up 16.8% in the run-up to Christmas, a faster rate than in November and the highest since 1977 by Office of National Statistics calculation.

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Inflation down from ‘a high peak’

All the primary factors in global inflation – war, energy and post-Covid supply chains – coalesce in food production, pushing up the cost of feed, fuel and fertiliser.

That makes pricier grocery bills inevitable and has a disproportionate impact on the least well-off, for whom food is a greater proportion of spending.

The best argument for higher wages

Many of them will work in the public sector, where high inflation will remain employees’ best argument for higher wage settlements, and the government’s primary justification for denying them.

Immigration minister Robert Jenrick told Sky News on Wednesday that increasing wage offers would “be the very worst thing we could do”, a comment unlikely to ease industrial relations or win approval from economists.

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While ministers argue increasing public sector wages will cause a “wage-price spiral”, in which higher pay increases costs that businesses pass on to consumers, thus embedding inflation just as it starts to fall, plenty of economists disagree.

Many argue public sector pay is not inflationary because there is no onward cost to the consumer of a teacher or nurse’s time, but to the taxpayer, with the government able to adjust its spending accordingly. Increasing state employee pay may even deliver economic benefits, with more spending and a greater tax take.

With real-term pay falling 3.8% in November, and even private sector pay settlements of 7.2% on average well short of inflation, there is no sign yet of an upward spiral.

There is one cautionary figure in the latest data, however.

Core services inflation is still rising, up to 6.8%, a sign perhaps that higher private sector wages in a largely domestic market are beginning to stick.

Peaked or not, the Bank of England will not need an excuse to increase interest rates when it meets next month.

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Bosses of Octopus Energy and SSE clash over ‘postcode pricing’ proposals

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Bosses of Octopus Energy and SSE clash over 'postcode pricing' proposals

The head of Britain’s biggest energy supplier has claimed his competitors oppose proposals for so-called postcode pricing because they financially benefit from the current system.

Octopus Energy chief executive Greg Jackson told Sky News his business’s rivals were against customers being charged based on where they lived, rather than on a national basis, because they would lose out on profits.

He said: “A very small number of companies that today get paid tens of millions, sometimes in a single day, to turn off wind farms and generate gas elsewhere, don’t like it.

“The reason you’re seeing that kind of behaviour from the rivals is they are benefiting from the current system that’s generating incredible profitability.”

The government is currently considering whether to introduce the policy, which is also known as zonal pricing. Energy secretary Ed Miliband is expected to make a decision on the proposals by this summer.

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Octopus has become Britain’s biggest supplier with more than seven million customers.

Mr Jackson has been a vocal proponent, as he said he wants to charge customers less and boost government electrification policies by having cheaper electricity costs.

What is postcode pricing?


Business reporter Sarah Taafe-Maguire

Sarah Taaffe-Maguire

Business and economics reporter

@taaffems

Zonal pricing would mean electricity bills are based on what region you live in.

Some parts of Britain, like northern Scotland, are home to huge energy producers in the form of offshore wind farms.

But rather than feeding electricity to local homes and businesses, power goes into a nationwide auction and is bought to go across Britain.

As the energy grid is still wired for the old coal-producing sites rather than the modern renewable generators, it’s not straightforward to get electricity from where it’s increasingly produced to the places people live and work.

That leads to traffic jams on the grid, blocking paid-for electricity moving to where it’s needed and a system where producers can be paid a second time, to power down, and other suppliers, often gas plants, are paid to meet the shortfall.

Zonal pricing is designed to prevent paying the generators for power that can’t be used.

It would mean those in Scotland have lower wholesale energy costs while those in the south, where there is less renewable energy production, would have higher wholesale costs.

Whether bills go up or down depends on implementation.

Savings from one region could be spread across Britain, lowering bills across the board.

Mr Miliband has said he’s not going to decide to raise prices.

However, SSE’s chief executive Alistair Phillips-Davies described the policy as a “distraction” and said it could affect already agreed-upon upgrades of the national grid that will lower costs.

“I think you’ve got a very, very small number of people who are asking for this. It’s just a distraction. We should remove it now,” he said.

While Octopus Energy estimates that said postcode pricing could be introduced in two to four years, Mr Phillips-Davies said it could take until 2032 before it was implemented, by which time Britain would have “built much of the networks that are required to get the energy from these places down into the homes and businesses that actually need it”.

“We just need to stay true to the course,” he added.

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Unions, as well as industry and energy representatives, have also spoken out against the policy. Opponents include eco-tycoon Dale Vince and trade body UK Steel.

A joint letter signed by SSE, UK Steel, Ceramics UK and British Glass, along with the unions GMB, Unite and Unison, said zonal pricing could lead to scaled-back investment due to uncertainty and higher bills.

A separate letter signed by 55 investors, including Centrica and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, has also criticised the policy.

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Businesses facing fresh energy cost threat

However, Mr Jackson said many investors had not voiced opposition, with thousands of small and medium businesses instead backing the policy in the hope of paying less on energy bills.

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Poundland shake-up will see 68 stores and two distribution sites shut

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Poundland shake-up will see 68 stores and two distribution sites shut

The new owner of the discount retailer Poundland has revealed proposals to close 68 stores and two distribution centres under a shake-up that will also see frozen food and online sales halted.

Gordon Brothers, the investment firm which snapped up the struggling brand for a nominal sum last week, said its recovery plan “intended to deliver a financially sustainable operating model for the business after an extended period of under-performance”.

The plans are understood to be leaving 1,350 jobs at risk.

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It currently employs 16,000 people across the business.

Poundland said it was also seeking store rent reductions more widely under the plans.

Sky News reported on Monday that if creditors backed the restructuring, with a vote expected in late August, 250 of Poundland’s sites would also see their rent bills reduced to zero.

Poundland said its future focus would be on profitable stores, with its web-based operations becoming confined to browsing only.

As a result of the new priority, along with a shift away from most chilled and all frozen products, the company said it would no longer need its frozen and digital distribution centre at Darton in South Yorkshire.

It was to shut later this year.

Poundland also planned to close its national distribution centre at Bilston in the West Midlands early in 2026.

The retailer said it expects to end up with between 650 and 700 stores after the overhaul – assuming it achieves court approval.

It currently runs around 800 stores across the UK and Ireland but stressed Irish shops, which trade as Dealz, have not been affected.

Poundland’s struggles in recent years have included increased competition, poorly-received stock and rising costs.

Its managing director, Barry Williams, said: “It’s no secret that we have much work to do to get Poundland back on track.

“While Poundland remains a strong brand, serving 20 million-plus shoppers each year, our performance for a significant period has fallen short of our high standards and action is needed to enable the business to return to growth.

“It’s sincerely regrettable that this plan includes the closure of stores and distribution centres, but it’s necessary if we’re to achieve our goal of securing the future of thousands of jobs and hundreds of stores.

“It goes without saying that if our plans are approved, we will do all we can to support colleagues who will be directly affected by the changes.”

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US-UK trade deal ‘done’, says Trump as he meets Starmer at G7

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US-UK trade deal 'done', says Trump as he meets Starmer at G7

The UK-US trade deal has been signed and is “done”, US President Donald Trump has said as he met Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit.

The US president told reporters: “We signed it, and it’s done. It’s a fair deal for both. It’ll produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”

As Mr Trump and his British counterpart exited a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies where the summit is being held, the US president held up a physical copy of the trade agreement to show reporters.

Several leaves of paper fell from the binding, and Mr Starmer quickly bent down to pick them up, saying: “A very important document.”

President Donald Trump drops papers as he meets with Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Kananaskis, Canada. Pic: AP
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President Donald Trump drops papers as he meets with Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Kananaskis, Canada. Pic: AP

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Sir Keir Starmer hastily collects the signed executive order documents from the ground and hands them back to the US president.

Sir Keir said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, adding: “So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength.”

Mr Trump added that the UK was “very well protected” against any future tariffs, saying: “You know why? Because I like them”.

However, he did not say whether levies on British steel exports to the US would be set to 0%, saying “we’re gonna let you have that information in a little while”.

Sir Keir Starmer picks up paper from the UK-US trade deal after Donald Trump dropped it at the G7 summit. Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer picks up paper from the UK-US trade deal after Donald Trump dropped it at the G7 summit. Pic: Reuters

What exactly does trade deal being ‘done’ mean?

The government says the US “has committed” to removing tariffs (taxes on imported goods) on UK aerospace goods, such as engines and aircraft parts, which currently stand at 10%.

That is “expected to come into force by the end of the month”.

Tariffs on car imports will drop from 27.5% to 10%, the government says, which “saves car manufacturers hundreds of millions a year, and protects tens of thousands of jobs”.

The White House says there will be a quota of 100,000 cars eligible for import at that level each year.

But on steel, the story is a little more complicated.

The UK is the only country exempted from the global 50% tariff rate on steel – which means the UK rate remains at the original level of 25%.

That tariff was expected to be lifted entirely, but the government now says it will “continue to go further and make progress towards 0% tariffs on core steel products as agreed”.

The White House says the US will “promptly construct a quota at most-favoured-nation rates for steel and aluminium articles”.

Other key parts of the deal include import and export quotas for beef – and the government is keen to emphasise that “any US imports will need to meet UK food safety standards”.

There is no change to tariffs on pharmaceuticals for the moment, and the government says “work will continue to protect industry from any further tariffs imposed”.

The White House says they “committed to negotiate significantly preferential treatment outcomes”.

Mr Trump also praised Sir Keir as a “great” prime minister, adding: “We’ve been talking about this deal for six years, and he’s done what they haven’t been able to do.”

He added: “We’re very longtime partners and allies and friends and we’ve become friends in a short period of time.

“He’s slightly more liberal than me to put it mildly… but we get along.”

Sir Keir added that “we make it work”.

The US president appeared to mistakenly refer to a “trade agreement with the European Union” at one point as he stood alongside the British prime minister.

Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on countries in April. At the time, he announced 10% “reciprocal” rates on all UK exports – as well as separately announced 25% levies on cars and steel.

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In a joint televised phone call in May, Sir Keir and Mr Trump announced the UK and US had agreed on a trade deal – but added the details were being finalised.

Ahead of the G7 summit, the prime minister said he would meet Mr Trump for “one-on-one” talks, and added the agreement “really matters for the vital sectors that are safeguarded under our deal, and we’ve got to implement that”.

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