‘Digital mimics’ among 16 projects launched to help NHS with winter pressure

Published

1 year ago

January 22, 2023

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Researchers are using artificial intelligence (AI) to “digitally mimic” households struggling with the impact of the cost of living crisis to simulate the most effective ways to help.

It’s one of more than a dozen projects spanning data analysis to machine learning that have been launched to help counter the winter pressures facing the NHS.

It comes as the health service buckles under the strain of large numbers of flu and COVID cases, a huge backlog exacerbated by the pandemic, and mounting wait times for ambulances and emergency and routine care.

The 16 projects, launched by Health Data Research UK (HDR), hope to deliver findings by the end of March.

Health Secretary Steve Barclay said the goal was to channel “the spirit of innovation” that led to the rapid rollout of coronavirus vaccines, with the government providing £800,000 in funding.

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While many of the projects seek to find ways of using technology to relieve pressure on hospital staff, others seek to address some of the root causes of the troubles facing the NHS.

One such initiative uses existing data and AI to “digitally mimic” household environments and simulate interventions that might improve the standard of people’s health at home – especially children.

Dr Martin Chapman, from King’s College London, explained: “Living in cold, damp, and mouldy homes leads to chest conditions in children and mental health problems in adolescents, and rising energy costs mean more people than ever are living with heat poverty.

“We’re investigating the effectiveness of interventions like support for energy bills on the health of young people by using AI to digitally mimic their household environments and evaluate the impact of simulated interventions.

“This will help guide future policy changes to improve health conditions, reduce inequalities, and in turn reduce pressures on NHS services.”

What are some of the projects?

Using the same infrastructure that powered Siren, which collated and published regular public data on COVID at the peak of the pandemic, the winter pressures sub-study will see it expand to include flu and a common children’s illness called Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV).

Another project aims to use AI to help clinicians more easily identify high-risk patients.

By analysing patient data, an AI model could suggest the most suitable ward for a patient to be on, those at most immediate risk of deterioration, and when someone should be discharged or not.

Also focused on hospital discharge times is a project called DS4SmartDischarge.

This uses machine learning (the process of teaching a computer to do something by itself) to help computers categorise patients based on the risk of different discharge outcomes.

Another team made up of health care workers, hospital leaders and the Society of Acute Medicine is also using machine learning to help build a model that identifies patients in need of same day emergency care.

Patients would be graded based on data like blood pressure, medications and bedside tests, helping staff make a decision within four hours of them coming to hospital.

Project lead Professor Elizabeth Sapey said the work would help with “reducing inequalities in care and relieving pressure on emergency services”.

‘Rapid response to evolving pressures’

While the projects come too late for the current crisis enveloping the health service, it is hoped they will produce results that help it better cope in the long term.

Professor Cathie Sudlow, chief scientist at HDR, said they would hone in on “key pain points” in the NHS.

“By using existing data, research teams, and infrastructure, these projects are able to respond rapidly to evolving pressures on the NHS,” she added.

Each of the projects has been partnered with analysts in the Department of Health, which sponsored the plans; the Office for National Statistics; and the UK Health Security Agency.

Once findings are delivered in March, it is hoped they will be published later in the year.

UK

UK will ‘not take back asylum seekers from Ireland until France takes back Channel migrants’

Published

7 hours ago

April 29, 2024

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UK will 'not take back asylum seekers from Ireland until France takes back Channel migrants'

The UK will not to take back asylum seekers who cross the border into Ireland “until the EU accepts that we can send them back to France”, according to a government source.

The comment comes amid an escalating row between Dublin and Westminster over the Irish government’s plans for new legislation to enable asylum seekers who cross the border from Northern Ireland to be sent back to the UK.

Irish justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee last week that more than 80% of recent arrivals in Ireland came via the land border with Northern Ireland.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister and foreign secretary Micheal Martin also said the threat of deportation to Rwanda was causing “fearful” migrants to head for Ireland instead of the UK.

As the row deepened on Sunday night, Irish prime minister Simon Harris, vowed the country would “not provide a loophole for anybody else’s migration challenges”.

He also said that “close” collaboration and cooperation between the British and Irish governments was “not just desirable, but absolutely essential”.

However, a UK government source said any bid to return asylum seekers from Ireland would be rejected unless France agreed to do the same with boats crossing the Channel.

“We won’t accept any asylum returns from the EU via Ireland until the EU accepts that we can send them back to France,” the source said.

It comes as figures showed the number of migrants that crossed the Channel in small boats during the first four months of the year was at its highest-ever level.

Meanwhile, The Guardian reported on Sunday night that a major operation by the Home Office to detain migrants across the UK in preparation for their deportation to Rwanda had begun “weeks earlier than expected”. The report has not been verified by Sky News.

Ministers from both countries are set to meet in London on Monday as part of a pre-planned conference, involving Mr Martin and the Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris.

However, a meeting between the UK home secretary, James Cleverly, and Ms McEntee, planned for Monday, was postponed late on Sunday night.

‘A global challenge’

Mr Martin said the UK government’s Rwanda policy – which became law last week after much legal and political back-and-forth – had already impacted Ireland because people were “fearful” of staying in the UK.

“Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have,” the former taoiseach told The Daily Telegraph.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told Sky News on Sunday that the UK’s Rwanda scheme was already working as a deterrent.

He also said the comments from Irish politicians showed that illegal migration was a “global challenge”.

“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe [they] will follow where the UK has led,” he said.

Mr Harris, who took over as taoiseach in April, is already facing pressure from voters to tackle migration in Ireland – which has seen anti-immigrant protests in recent months.

He has asked his justice minister to “bring proposals to cabinet to amend existing law regarding the designation of safe ‘third countries’ and allowing the return of inadmissible international protection applicants to the UK”.

Irish ministers are expected to discuss emergency legislation on Tuesday.

The legislation is being drafted in response to an Irish High Court ruling that found Ireland designating the UK as a “safe third country” for returning asylum seekers, in the context of the Rwanda plan, is contrary to EU law.

Ms McEntee said she would seek government approval for the legislation to be “rapidly drafted so that the UK can again be designated as a safe country for returns”.

“My department has been working on this as a priority since last month’s High Court judgment and I intend that returns to the UK will recommence once the law is enacted,” she added.

UK

More human remains found in two locations as part of Salford torso inquiry

Published

15 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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More human remains found in two locations as part of Salford torso inquiry

More human remains have been found in two locations as part of an investigation that started when a man’s torso was discovered in Salford.

Police believe the torso belongs to a man in his 60s and have informed his family about his death, but have not yet identified him publicly.

In a news conference today, officers revealed the victim is believed to have known two men who are currently in custody. They are believed to have lived together.

Detective Superintendent Lewis Hughes said they were looking at four crime scenes in Salford and the Greater Manchester area.

The human remains discovered over the last two days were found at Salford’s Blackleach Reservoir and Linnyshaw Colliery Wood.

Officers had already identified the two scenes before the remains were found and were “on route to the Colliery Wood” when a member of the public called to say they had found a package, said Det Supt Hughes.

Police officers found the other remains at the reservoir today while searching the area.

“We are very confident it is the same victim,” Det Supt Hughes added.

The victim is believed to have died in late March.

Police are searching a warehouse in Bury where “items were stored after this incident without the knowledge of occupants of that warehouse,” said Det Supt Hughes.

They’re also searching a house in Winton where the victim “was believed to have lived with the two men in custody”.

The first remains – consisting of the bottom of the back, buttocks and thigh – were found in clear plastic by a passer-by at Kersal Dale Wetlands in Salford, Greater Manchester, on 4 April.

Two men, aged 42 and 68, from Salford, who are believed to be known to each other, were arrested on suspicion of murder on 25 April, GMP said, after officers trawled through hundreds of hours of CCTV footage.

The 42-year-old was arrested after officers stormed a bus in Eccles Old Road around midday, the force said.

The other man was later arrested at an address in Worsley Road.

A 20-year-old man previously arrested on suspicion of murder was later released on bail pending further inquiries.

“It is too soon to rule out [looking for other suspects] but we’re confident at this time that we have the right two suspects in custody,” said Det Supt Hughes.

Detectives are still appealing the public for any information related to the crime and want to hear from witnesses, including dog walkers, who were in the area between 6am and 6pm on the day a passer-by made the original grim discovery.

More than 100 officers searched the Kersal Dale area for 12 days looking for evidence, working with an underwater search team and dogs before lifting the crime scene on 17 April.

UK

Small boat migrant arrivals by late April at highest level ever

Published

16 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Small boat migrant arrivals by late April at highest level ever

The number of migrants that have crossed the Channel in small boats during the first four months of the year is at its highest ever level.

Some 7,167 people have arrived on UK shores after travelling by small boat from the continent between 1 January to 27 April, with 902 entering just this past week

This compares to 5,745 for the same period last year. The previous record was 6,691 in 2022.

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The figures come after Rishi Sunak has staked much of his political future on getting the number of migrant boat crossings down.

On Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips programme he said migrants travelling to Ireland after arriving in the UK on small boats was a sign the Rwanda scheme was already working as a deterrent.

“People are worried about coming here and that demonstrates exactly what I’m saying,” he told Sky News.

“If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay there, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”

However, the news that migrants are crossing from Northern Ireland into the Republic has sparked an outcry in the country, and prompted the government in Dublin to announce they are planning emergency legislation to send asylum seekers back to Britain.

More than 80% of recent arrivals in the republic came via the land border with Northern Ireland, Irish justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee last week.

Stopping the boats was one of the government’s five priorities set out by the prime minister after he took office in 2023.

The latest figures have been seized upon by Labour, with shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock saying: “This is the blunt reality behind all of Rishi Sunak’s empty boasts: more people have arrived by small boats so far this year than ever before and more people are having to be rescued.

“What will it take for Rishi Sunak to wake up and realise that his plan is not working?

“We desperately need a Labour government in place to get a grip of this issue.

“Our plan would strengthen Britain’s border security, crush the smuggling gangs, clear the asylum backlog, end hotel use, and set up a new returns and enforcement unit so those with no right to be in the UK are swiftly returned.”