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Researchers are using artificial intelligence (AI) to “digitally mimic” households struggling with the impact of the cost of living crisis to simulate the most effective ways to help.

It’s one of more than a dozen projects spanning data analysis to machine learning that have been launched to help counter the winter pressures facing the NHS.

It comes as the health service buckles under the strain of large numbers of flu and COVID cases, a huge backlog exacerbated by the pandemic, and mounting wait times for ambulances and emergency and routine care.

The 16 projects, launched by Health Data Research UK (HDR), hope to deliver findings by the end of March.

Health Secretary Steve Barclay said the goal was to channel “the spirit of innovation” that led to the rapid rollout of coronavirus vaccines, with the government providing £800,000 in funding.

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While many of the projects seek to find ways of using technology to relieve pressure on hospital staff, others seek to address some of the root causes of the troubles facing the NHS.

One such initiative uses existing data and AI to “digitally mimic” household environments and simulate interventions that might improve the standard of people’s health at home – especially children.

Dr Martin Chapman, from King’s College London, explained: “Living in cold, damp, and mouldy homes leads to chest conditions in children and mental health problems in adolescents, and rising energy costs mean more people than ever are living with heat poverty.

“We’re investigating the effectiveness of interventions like support for energy bills on the health of young people by using AI to digitally mimic their household environments and evaluate the impact of simulated interventions.

“This will help guide future policy changes to improve health conditions, reduce inequalities, and in turn reduce pressures on NHS services.”

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‘I couldn’t believe what I was seeing’

What are some of the projects?

Using the same infrastructure that powered Siren, which collated and published regular public data on COVID at the peak of the pandemic, the winter pressures sub-study will see it expand to include flu and a common children’s illness called Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV).

Another project aims to use AI to help clinicians more easily identify high-risk patients.

By analysing patient data, an AI model could suggest the most suitable ward for a patient to be on, those at most immediate risk of deterioration, and when someone should be discharged or not.

Also focused on hospital discharge times is a project called DS4SmartDischarge.

This uses machine learning (the process of teaching a computer to do something by itself) to help computers categorise patients based on the risk of different discharge outcomes.

Another team made up of health care workers, hospital leaders and the Society of Acute Medicine is also using machine learning to help build a model that identifies patients in need of same day emergency care.

Patients would be graded based on data like blood pressure, medications and bedside tests, helping staff make a decision within four hours of them coming to hospital.

Project lead Professor Elizabeth Sapey said the work would help with “reducing inequalities in care and relieving pressure on emergency services”.

‘Rapid response to evolving pressures’

While the projects come too late for the current crisis enveloping the health service, it is hoped they will produce results that help it better cope in the long term.

Professor Cathie Sudlow, chief scientist at HDR, said they would hone in on “key pain points” in the NHS.

“By using existing data, research teams, and infrastructure, these projects are able to respond rapidly to evolving pressures on the NHS,” she added.

Each of the projects has been partnered with analysts in the Department of Health, which sponsored the plans; the Office for National Statistics; and the UK Health Security Agency.

Once findings are delivered in March, it is hoped they will be published later in the year.

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Home secretary vows to end UK’s ‘golden ticket’ for asylum seekers – as Denmark-based reforms to be unveiled

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Home secretary vows to end UK's 'golden ticket' for asylum seekers - as Denmark-based reforms to be unveiled

The home secretary is set to unveil sweeping measures to tackle illegal migration, vowing to end the UK’s ‘golden ticket’ for asylum seekers.

People granted asylum in the UK will only be allowed to stay in the country temporarily, in the changes expected to be unveiled on Monday by Shabana Mahmood.

Modelled on the Danish system, the aim is to make the UK less attractive for illegal immigrants and make it easier to deport them.

Planned changes mean that refugee status will become temporary and subject to regular review, with refugees removed as soon as their home countries are deemed safe.

The Home Office said the “golden ticket” deal has seen asylum claims surge in the UK, drawing people across Europe, through safe countries, onto dangerous small boats.

Under current UK rules, those granted refugee status have it for five years and can then apply for indefinite leave to remain and get on a route to citizenship.

As part of the changes, the statutory legal duty to provide asylum seeker support, including housing and weekly allowances, will be revoked.

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The government will seek to remove asylum support, including accommodation and handouts, to those who have a right to work and who can support themselves but choose not to or those who break UK law.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Pic: PA
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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Pic: PA

‘Last chance for a decent politics’

A government source said Ms Mahmood believes her reforms are about “more than the electoral fortunes of her party”.

“This is the last chance for a decent, mainstream politics. If these moderate forces fail, she believes, something darker will follow,” they said.

“But this demands that moderates are willing to do things that will seem immoderate to some. She has reminded those who are reluctant to embrace her ambition for bold reform, with an ultimatum: ‘if you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.'”

Ms Mahmood said they were the most sweeping changes to the asylum system “in a generation”, as she vowed the government will “restore order and control to our borders”.

The home secretary also told The Sunday Times that “I can see – and I know my colleagues can – that illegal migration is tearing our country apart”.

Read more:
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Could Danish model save Labour’s bacon?

System being ‘gamed’

The source said Ms Mahmood believes the system is being “gamed by those travelling on boats or abusing legal visas”.

Some 39,075 people have arrived in the UK after making the journey across the Channel so far this year, according to the latest Home Office figures.

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The gangs smuggling people to the UK

That is an increase of 19% on the same point in 2024 and up 43% on 2023, but remains 5% lower than at the equivalent point in 2022, which remains the peak year for crossings.

What happened in Denmark?

The UK government points to Denmark remaining a signatory of the European Convention on Human Rights, while also cutting the number of asylum applications to the lowest number in 40 years and successfully removing 95% of rejected asylum seekers.

What are Denmark’s migration rules?

Denmark has adopted increasingly restrictive rules in order to deal with migration over the last few years.

In Denmark, most asylum or refugee statuses are temporary. Residency can be revoked once a country is deemed safe.

In order to achieve settlement, asylum seekers are required to be in full-time employment, and the length of time it takes to acquire those rights has been extended.

Denmark also has tougher rules on family reunification – both the sponsor and their partner are required to be at least 24 years old, which the Danish government says is designed to prevent forced marriages.

The sponsor must also not have claimed welfare for three years and must provide a financial guarantee for their partner. Both must also pass a Danish language test.

In 2018, Denmark introduced what it called a ghetto package, a controversial plan to radically alter some residential areas, including by demolishing social housing. Areas with over 1,000 residents were defined as ghettos if more than 50% were “immigrants and their descendants from non-Western countries”.

In 2021, the left of centre government passed a law that allowed refugees arriving on Danish soil to be moved to asylum centres in a partner country – and subsequently agreed with Rwanda to explore setting up a program, although that has been put on hold.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the Labour government has “lost control” of the UK’s borders” with illegal channel crossings “surging to over 62,000 since the election”.

He said some of the new measures were welcome but “they stop well short of what is really required and some are just yet more gimmicks – like the previous ‘smash the gangs’ gimmick”.

Mr Philp added: “Only the Conservative borders plan will end illegal immigration – by leaving the ECHR, banning asylum claims for illegal immigrants, deporting all illegal arrivals within a week and establishing a Removals Force to deport 150,000 illegal immigrants each year.”

And Enver Solomon, chief executive of Refugee Council, said: “These sweeping changes will not deter people from making dangerous crossings, but they will unfairly prevent men, women and children from putting down roots and integrating into British life.”

Ms Mahmood will be appearing on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips from 8.30am on Sunday.

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Rail worker who protected passengers during mass stabbing on Huntingdon train discharged from hospital

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Rail worker who protected passengers during mass stabbing on Huntingdon train discharged from hospital

The train crew member who was seriously injured while trying to protect passengers during a mass stabbing has been discharged from hospital.

Samir Zitouni, 48, known as Sam, was working on board the London North Eastern Railway (LNER) train from Doncaster to London when the attack began in Cambridgeshire on Saturday 1 November.

LNER said Mr Zitouni, who has worked for the firm for more than 20 years, was credited with helping to save multiple lives.

Mr Zitouni had been in a critical condition, having suffered multiple injuries in the incident, but was discharged on Saturday.

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Mahmood praises rail worker

His family said: “We are so grateful for the outpouring of support from the public, and very touched by all the kind words about Sam’s brave actions on the night of the attack.

“While we are really happy to have him home, he still has a significant recovery ahead and we would now like to be left in privacy to care for him as a family.”

Earlier this month, LNER said he has been a “valued member” of staff for over 20 years, working on board as a customer experience host.

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Train mass stabbing: A timeline of events

David Horne, managing director at LNER, said: “In a moment of crisis, Sam did not hesitate as he stepped forward to protect those around him.

“His actions were incredibly brave, and we are so proud of him, and of all our colleagues who acted with such courage that evening. Our thoughts and prayers remain with Sam and his family. We will continue to support them and wish him a full and speedy recovery.”

The attack is understood to have started shortly after the train left Peterborough, with passengers pulling the emergency alarms on the LNER service.

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Police believe train attacker filmed waving knife

Train driver Andrew Johnson, who served in the Royal Navy for 17 years, contacted a signaller and requested an unscheduled stop at Huntingdon station.

11 people were treated in hospital after the mass stabbing – nine were initially reported as having life-threatening injuries.

Anthony Williams, 32, was remanded into custody at Peterborough Magistrates’ Court on November 3, charged with 10 counts of attempted murder over the incident.

He will appear at Cambridge Crown Court on 1 December.

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Donald Trump confirms he will sue the BBC over Panorama edit – despite broadcaster’s apology

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Donald Trump confirms he will sue the BBC over Panorama edit - despite broadcaster's apology

Donald Trump has said he will sue the BBC for between $1bn and $5bn over the editing of his speech on Panorama.

The US president confirmed he would be taking legal action against the broadcaster while on Air Force One overnight on Saturday.

“We’ll sue them. We’ll sue them for anywhere between a billion (£792m) and five billion dollars (£3.79bn), probably sometime next week,” he told reporters.

“We have to do it, they’ve even admitted that they cheated. Not that they couldn’t have not done that. They cheated. They changed the words coming out of my mouth.”

Mr Trump then told reporters he would discuss the matter with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer over the weekend, and claimed “the people of the UK are very angry about what happened… because it shows the BBC is fake news”.

The Daily Telegraph reported earlier this month that an internal memo raised concerns about the BBC’s editing of a speech made by Mr Trump on 6 January 2021, just before a mob rioted at the US Capitol building, on its flagship late-night news programme.

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BBC crisis: How did it happen?

The concerns regard clips spliced together from sections of the president’s speech to make it appear he told supporters he was going to walk to the US Capitol with them to “fight like hell” in the documentary Trump: A Second Chance?, which was broadcast by the BBC the week before last year’s US election.

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Following a backlash, both BBC director-general Tim Davie and BBC News chief executive Deborah Turness resigned from their roles.

‘No basis for defamation claim’

On Thursday, the broadcaster officially apologised to the president and added that it was an “error of judgement” and the programme will “not be broadcast again in this form on any BBC platforms”.

A spokesperson said that “the BBC sincerely regrets the manner in which the video clip was edited,” but they also added that “we strongly disagree there is a basis for a defamation claim”.

Earlier this week, Mr Trump’s lawyers threatened to sue the BBC for $1bn unless it apologised, retracted the clip, and compensated him.

The US president said he would sue the broadcaster for between $1bn and $5bn. File pic: PA
Image:
The US president said he would sue the broadcaster for between $1bn and $5bn. File pic: PA

Legal challenges

But legal experts have said that Mr Trump would face challenges taking the case to court in the UK or the US.

The deadline to bring the case to UK courts, where defamation damages rarely exceed £100,000 ($132,000), has already expired because the documentary aired in October 2024, which is more than one year.

Also because the documentary was not shown in the US, it would be hard to show that Americans thought less of the president because of a programme they could not watch.

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Sky’s Katie Spencer on what BBC bosses told staff on call over Trump row

Newsnight allegations

The BBC has said it was looking into fresh allegations, published in The Telegraph, that its Newsnight show also selectively edited footage of the same speech in a report broadcast in June 2022.

A BBC spokesperson said: “The BBC holds itself to the highest editorial standards. This matter has been brought to our attention and we are now looking into it.”

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