Bitcoin had a tough 2022. Now investors are looking toward 2023 with caution when it comes to cryptocurrencies.
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Bitcoin rose further over the weekend, as traders took news of another crypto bankruptcy in their stride and placed bets on a Federal Reserve “pivot” to cutting interest rates.
The price of the No. 1 token briefly topped $23,000 for the first time since Aug. 19, 2022, according to data from CoinGecko. It has since ebbed slightly to $22,859.20. The jump brings bitcoin up almost 39% since the start of January.
Ether, the second-biggest digital coin, rallied as high as $1,664.78 on Saturday — the first time it has surpassed $1,600 since Nov. 7, 2022. As of 6:40 a.m. ET, ether was worth $1,639.30 apiece.
Bitcoin has kicked off 2023 on a positive note, with investors hoping for a reversal in the monetary tightening that spooked market players last year.
The Fed and other central banks began cutting interest rates in 2022, shocking holders of risky asset classes, like stocks and digital tokens. Publicly-listed tech stocks and private venture capital-backed start-ups particularly took a beating, as investors sought protection in assets perceived as safer, such as cash and bonds.
With inflation now showing signs of cooling in the U.S., some market players are hopeful that central banks will start easing the pace of rate rises, or even slash rates. Economists previously told CNBC they predict a Fed rate cut could happen as soon as this year.
“Fed tightening seems to be lighter and inflation less of a risk,” Charles Hayter, CEO of crypto data site CryptoCompare, said in emailed comments to CNBC. “There is hope there will be more caution to rate rises globally.”
The Fed is likely to keep interest rates high for the time being. However, some officials at the bank have recently called for a reduction in the size of quarterly rate hikes, wary of a slowdown in economic activity.
The world’s top digital currency, bitcoin, is “increasingly looking like it has put in its bottom,” according to Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at crypto exchange Luno.
Bitcoin short sellers have been squeezed by sudden upward moves in prices, according to Ayyar. Short selling is an investment strategy whereby traders borrow an asset and then sell it in the hope that it will depreciate in value.
A wipe-out of those short positions sparked by the rising price of bitcoin has added “fuel to the fire,” Ayyar said, as short sellers are forced to cover their bets by buying back the borrowed bitcoin to close them out.
What crypto collapse?
Investors don’t seem to have been greatly perturbed by the collapses of top crypto companies, stemming from the fallout of digital currency exchange FTX’s insolvency in November.
Last week, the lending arm of New York-based crypto investment firm Genesis became the latest casualty of the crypto crisis, seeking bankruptcy protection in a “mega” filing listing aggregate liabilities ranging from $1.2 billion to $11 billion.
“The Genesis debacle has been playing out for a while and is likely priced in already. FTX, on the other hand, has already had a significant impact on many investors, on market psychology and on the prices of several toxic assets,” Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of crypto investment advisory firm Quantum Economics, told CNBC.
“It should be noted however that the price on bitcoin itself is quite limited since FTX didn’t have any on their balance sheets.”
Bitcoin is still about 67% off its all-time high, despite its recent surge.
The latest crypto plunge is different from past cycles, in large part due to the role played by leverage. Major crypto players became entangled in risky lending practices, offering lofty yields that many investors now say were unsustainable.
This began in May with the collapse of terraUSD — or UST — an algorithmic stablecoin that was supposed to be pegged one-to-one with the U.S. dollar. The failure of UST brought down terraUSD’s sister token luna and hit companies with exposure to both tokens.
Three Arrows Capital, a hedge fund with bullish views on crypto, plunged into liquidation because of its exposure to terraUSD.
Then came the November collapse of FTX, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. It was run by Sam Bankman-Fried, an executive who was often in the spotlight.
The fallout from FTX continues to ripple across the cryptocurrency industry. Roughly $2 trillion of value has been erased from the overall crypto market since the peak of the crypto boom in November 2021, in a deep downturn known as “crypto winter.”
One analyst cautioned that technical indicators suggest there could be some pullback from the token’s recent rally.
Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank, said that while bitcoin’s trend indicators are “generally signaling a strong upward trend,” its relative strength indicator, or RSI, “is diverging from the price’s upward movement and starting to slide down, which is not a good sign for the current price trend.”
“Bitcoin could test its August high and be supported at the $20k~$21k level, but with its RSI’s divergence and a couple of big tech earnings ahead this week, it could get quite unstable,” Hagesawa said in a Monday note.
The recent bitcoin price boost has nevertheless offered some investors hope that the ice may be starting to thaw.
Greenspan said upward moment in bitcoin is typical of the cryptocurrency, as investors anticipate the next so-called “halving” event — a change to the bitcoin network that reduces rewards to miners by half. It is viewed by some investors as positive for the price of the token, as it squeezes supply.
The next halving is slated to take place sometime between March and May of 2024.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella speaks at Axel Springer Neubau in Berlin on Oct. 17, 2023
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Microsoft said last week that it plans to stop providing discounts on enterprise purchases of its Microsoft 365 productivity software subscriptions and other cloud applications.
Since the announcement, analysts have published estimates on how much more customers will end up paying. But for investors trying to figure out what it all means to Microsoft’s financials, analysts at UBS said the change is already factored into guidance.
“In our view, it is safe to assume that the impact of the pricing change” was included in Microsoft’s forecast, the analysts wrote in a report late Tuesday. They have a buy rating on the stock.
Microsoft’s disclosure, on Aug. 12, came two weeks after the software company, it its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, issued a forecast that included double-digit year-over-year revenue growth for the new fiscal year. The shares rose 4% after the report.
Microsoft said in its blog post announcing the pricing change that, “This update builds on the consistent pricing model already in place for services like Azure and reflects our ongoing commitment to greater transparency and alignment across all purchasing channels.”
The change applies to companies with enough employees to get them into price levels known as A, B, C and D. It goes into effect when organizations sign up for new services or renew existing agreements, beginning on Nov. 1.
“This action allows us to deliver more consistent and transparent pricing and better enable clear, informed decision making for customers and partners,” a Microsoft spokesperson told CNBC in an email.
Jay Cuthrell, product chief at Microsoft partner NexusTek, said customers will see price hikes of 6% to 12%. Partners are estimating an impact as low as as 3% and as high as 14%, UBS analysts wrote.
Microsoft 365 commercial seat growth, a measurement of the number of licenses that clients buy for their workers, has been under 10% since 2023. Microsoft is aiming to generate more revenue per seat by selling Copilot add-ons and moving some users to more expensive plans.
Expanding that part of the business is crucial. Most of Microsoft’s $128.5 billion in fiscal 2025 operating profit came from the Productivity and Business Processes unit, and about 73% of the revenue in that segment was from Microsoft 365 commercial products and cloud services.
Some customers could agree to pay Microsoft more to keep using the applications rather than moving to alternative services, said Adam Mansfield, practice lead at advisory firm UpperEdge. They may also lower their commitments to Microsoft in other areas, such as Azure cloud infrastructure, Mansfield said.
One way companies could potentially pay lower prices with the disappearance of discounts is by buying through cloud resellers instead of going direct, said Nathan Taylor, a senior vice president at Sourcepass, an IT service provider that caters to small businesses.
Sourcepass hasn’t gotten many leads as a result of Microsoft’s change yet, Taylor said.
“It takes a while for that information to disseminate to the industry at large,” he said.
Microsoft shares are up 20% this year, while the Nasdaq has gained about 10%.
Alibaba’s global headquarters in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on May 9, 2024.
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Alibaba-backed Banma, a provider of technology for smart cars, is planning to list shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, according to a filing.
In a filing dated Aug. 21, Alibaba said it currently owns about 45% of Banma and will continue to control over 30% of the company’s stock after the listing. Banma said in a filing that the announcement does not guarantee a listing will take place.
Banma, founded in 2015 and based in Shanghai, is “principally engaged in the development of smart cockpit solutions,” Alibaba’s filing says. In March, Alibaba announced that it was deepening its partnership with BMW in China, building an artificial intelligence engine for cars with a solution built by Banma, “Alibaba’s intelligent cockpit solution provider.”
In addition to Alibaba, Banma is backed by investors including China’s SAIC Motor, SDIC Investment Management and Yunfeng Capital, a Chinese investment firm started by Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma.
Alibaba in the past referred to Banma as a joint venture “between us and SAIC Motor.”
Private renewable energy projects are still moving forward despite a pullback in government support, and new technology is making that construction more efficient.
Solar farms, for example, take meticulous planning and surveying, involve long hours and require significant labor. Now, robots are taking on the job.
CivDot is a four-wheeled robot that can mark up to 3,000 layout points per day and is accurate within 8 millimeters. The machine can ride over rugged terrain and work through rough weather.
It is the brainchild of California-based Civ Robotics.
“Our secret sauce and our core technology is actually in the navigation and the geospatial — being able to literally mark coordinates within less than a quarter inch, which is very, very difficult in an uneven terrain, outdoor surfaces, and out in the desert,” said Tom Yeshurun, CEO of Civ Robotics.
The data for manual surveying is uploaded into the Civ software, then the operator chooses the area they want to mark and presses go. The robot does the rest, saving both time and money.
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“The manual surveying equipment, if you use that in the field and you have three crews, they will need three land surveying handheld receivers. That alone is already equal to how much we lease our machines in the field, and all the labor savings is just another benefit,” Yeshurun said.
Civ Robotics has more than 100 of these robots in the field that are primarily being used by renewable energy companies, but they are also used in oil and gas. It is currently working with Bechtel Corporation on several solar projects.
“These were usually pretty highly paid field engineers that we would send out there, and they might be able to do 250 or 350 pile marks a day. With the CivDot robot, we’re able to do about 1250 a day,” said Kelley Brown, vice president at Bechtel.
Brown said the company has used the robot in thick and muddy terrain in Texas and out in the deserts of Nevada.
“And so you have to think about things like the tires, or you may have to think about clearance. Are you trying to get over existing brush and such, across the solar field? So that’s one thing that we contemplate. I think the other is, you know, this runs on batteries, so you’ve got to contemplate battery swaps,” she added.
Civ Robotics is backed by Alleycorp, FF Venture Capital, Bobcat Company, Newfund Capital, Trimble Ventures, and Converge. Total VC funding to date is $12.5 million.
There are other robotics solutions for markings, but the competition is mostly doing work on highways and soccer fields. Yeshurun said those rivals can’t handle the terrains that the solar industry faces as it expands into new territories.
CNBC producer Lisa Rizzolo contributed to this piece.