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Hovnanian Enterprises chairman and CEO Ara Hovnanian discusses the state of home builders and if the housing market hit bottom on ‘The Claman Countdown.’

Goldman Sachs expects home values to worsen through 2023 amid continued skyrocketing interest rates and declining housing prices.

The firm wrote to clients earlier this month that it predicts four U.S. cities will suffer the most catastrophic dips, drawing comparisons to the 2008 housing crash.

San Jose, California; San Diego, California; Austin, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona, will likely see noticeable increases before drastic decreases of more than 25%.

These declines would be similar to those witnessed during the Great Recession in 2008. Home prices across the U.S. fell around 27% at the time, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.

GOLDMAN SACHS ANNOUNCES REDUCTION IN ASSET MANAGEMENT INVESTMENTS

Goldman Sachs expects home values to worsen through 2023 amid continued skyrocketing interest rates and declining housing prices. (Reuters Photos)

"Our 2023 revised forecast primarily reflects our view that interest rates will remain at elevated levels longer than currently priced in, with 10-year Treasury yields peaking in 2023 Q3," Goldman Sachs strategists wrote, according to the New York Post. "As a result, we are raising our forecast for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.5% for year-end 2023 (representing a 30 bp increase from our prior expectation)."

In 2022, mortgage rates jumped from 3% to 6%.

"This [national] decline should be small enough as to avoid broad mortgage credit stress, with a sharp increase in foreclosures nationwide seeming unlikely," Goldman Sachs wrote. "That said, overheated housing markets in the Southwest and Pacific coast, such as San Jose MSA, Austin MSA, Phoenix MSA, and San Diego MSA will likely grapple with peak-to-trough declines of over 25%, presenting localized risk of higher delinquencies for mortgages originated in 2022 or late 2021."

San Jose, California; San Diego, California; Austin, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona (pictured), will likely see noticeable increases before drastic decreases of more than 25%. (iStock / iStock)

The bank says these cities will suffer the lowest prices this year because they became too detached from fundamentals during the COVID-19 pandemic housing boom.

Goldman Sachs also forecasts that many Northeastern, Southeastern, and Midwestern markets could see milder corrections.

Home prices are expected to dip slightly in New York City (-0.3%) and Chicago (-1.8%), while Baltimore (+0.5%) and Miami (+0.8%) will see higher prices, the firm said.

FEDERAL RESERVE INVESTIGATING GOLDMAN SACHS' CONSUMER BUSINESS

Home prices are expected to dip slightly in New York City and Chicago while Baltimore and Miami (pictured) will see higher prices. (iStock / iStock)

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"Assuming the economy remains on the path to a soft landing, avoiding a recession, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls back to 6.15% by year-end 2024, home price growth will likely shift from depreciation to below-trend appreciation in 2024," Goldman Sachs wrote.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 7.37% at its peak in November.

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Lightning sign McDonagh to 3-year, $12.3M deal

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Lightning sign McDonagh to 3-year, .3M deal

TAMPA, Fla. — The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed veteran defenseman Ryan McDonagh to a three-year extension worth $12.3 million.

General manager Julien BriseBois announced the deal Thursday. McDonagh will be 37 when the new contract kicks in; it counts $4.1 million against the salary cap through the 2028-29 season.

McDonagh helped the Lightning win back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 and reach the Final in 2022 before losing in six games to the Colorado Avalanche.

They traded him to the Nashville Predators that summer to clear cap space at a time when it was not going up much because of the pandemic and reacquired him in 2024.

Record cap increases will have McDonagh account for less than 4% of the cap each of the next three years.

McDonagh is currently injured, one of several players Tampa Bay has been missing, along with No. 1 defenseman Victor Hedman. The team has still won 16 of 26 games and leads the Atlantic Division.

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UK

Officials accused of ‘failing’ to tell Lords about three large-scale illegal waste sites

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Officials accused of 'failing' to tell Lords about three large-scale illegal waste sites

Environment Agency bosses have been accused of “failing” to tell a cross-party committee of peers about three large-scale illegal waste sites – including one that was recently exposed by Sky News. 

Our investigation into waste crime in Wigan heard from residents who repeatedly complained to the Environment Agency that 20 to 30 lorries a day drove down their street last winter and dumped industrial amounts of waste.

The rubbish now sits at a staggering 25,000 tonnes. It burnt for nine days in July, and has seen local homes infested with rats and flies.

Since then, a similarly sized site in Kidlington near the River Cherwell in Oxfordshire sparked national outrage. One man has been arrested in connection with the dumping.

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‘Epidemic’ of waste crime in Britain

Despite the scale of these two locations – which were well known to the Environment Agency – it neglected to name them when asked by the Lord’s Environment Committee’s inquiry into waste crime how many “significant” sites there were around the country.

Phil Davies and Steve Molyneux of the Environment Agency gave evidence on 17 September.

Just six sites were cited, but three more have been exposed in the past few weeks alone. These are Wigan, Kidlington and a mound of dumped waste in Wadborough.

Now, the Lords are worried there are more environmentally destructive locations the public aren’t aware of.

Read more:
A community plagued by 25,000 tonnes of illegal waste

Urgent action needed to stop fly-tipping by gangs, peers say

In a letter to the EA’s chair Alan Lovell and chief executive Philip Duffy, Baroness Sheehan, chair of the Environment and Climate Change Committee, said: “We are increasingly concerned that there may be other sites of a similarly large and environmentally damaging scale.”

She asked how much progress has been made to remove waste from the various sites, why restriction notices in places like Wigan weren’t served sooner – and for a full list of other sites of a similar size.

Baroness Sheehan also expressed her “disappointment” that these three new locations “were not deemed necessary to bring to the committee’s attention”, though she thanked journalists for “bringing these sites to the public attention”.

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UK’s ‘biggest ecological disaster’

Her original report saw the Lords call for an independent “root and branch” inquiry into how waste crime is tackled. She said the crime, which costs the UK £1bn every year, has been “critically under-prioritised”.

Sky News has been investigating the scourge of waste crime all year, exposing how criminal gangs involved in drugs, weapons and people trafficking can make “millions” from illegally dumping waste.

In the summer, we tracked down a group of suspected organised fly-tippers who waved wads of cash on TikTok after dumping waste in the countryside.

It’s so lucrative, it was dubbed the “new narcotics” by a former head of the Environment Agency.

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UK

Starmer wants to lift half a million children out of poverty – but does his plan go far enough?

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Starmer wants to lift half a million children out of poverty - but does his plan go far enough?

A new long-awaited child poverty strategy is promising to lift half a million children out of poverty by the end of this parliament – but critics have branded it unambitious. 

The headline announcement in the government’s plan is the pledge to lift the two-child benefit cap, announced in Rachel Reeves’s budget last week.

It also includes:

• Providing upfront childcare support for parents on universal credit returning to work
• An £8m fund to end the placement of families in bed and breakfasts beyond a six-week limit
• Reforms to cut the cost of baby formula
• A new legal duty on councils to notify schools, health visitors, and GPs when a child is placed in temporary accommodation

Many of the measures have previously been announced.

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Two-child cap ‘a real victory for the left’

The government also pointed to its plan in the budget to cut energy bills by £150 a year, and its previously promised £950m boost to a local authority housing fund, which it says will deliver 5,000 high-quality homes for better temporary accommodation.

Downing Street said the strategy would lift 550,000 children out of poverty by 2030, saying that would be the biggest reduction in a single parliament since records began.

More on Poverty

But charities had been hoping for a 10-year strategy and argue the plan lacks ambition.

A record 4.5 million children (about 31%) are living in poverty in the UK – 900,000 more since 2010/11, according to government figures.

Phillip Anderson, the Strategic Director for External Affairs at the National Children’s Bureau (NCB), told Sky News: “Abolishing the two-child limit is a hell of a centre piece, but beyond that it’s mainly a summary of previously announced policies and commitments.

“The really big thing for me is it misses the opportunity to talk about the longer term. It was supposed to be a 10-year strategy, we wanted to see real ambition and ideally legally binding targets for reducing poverty.

“The government itself says there will still be around four million children living in poverty after these measures and the strategy has very little to say to them.”

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‘A budget for benefits street’

‘Budget for benefits street’ row

The biggest measure in the strategy is the plan to lift the two-child benefit cap from April. This is estimated to lift 450,000 children out of poverty by 2030, at a cost of £3bn.

The government has long been under pressure from backbench Labour MPs to scrap the cap, with most experts arguing that it is the quickest, most cost-effective way to drive-down poverty this parliament.

The cap, introduced by Conservative chancellor George Osborne in 2017, means parents can only claim universal credit or tax credits for their first two children. It meant the average affected household losing £4,300 per year, the Institute for Fiscal Studies calculated in 2024.

The government argues that a failure to tackle child poverty holds back the economy, and young people at school, cutting their employment and earning prospects in later life.

However, the Conservatives argue parents on benefits should have to make the same financial choices about children as everyone else.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: “Work is the best way out poverty but since this government took office, unemployment has risen every single month and this budget for Benefits Street will only make the situation worse. “

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OBR leak: This has happened before

‘Bring back Sure Start’

Lord Bird, a crossbench peer who founded the Big Issue and grew up in poverty, said while he supported the lifting of the cap there needed to be “more joined up thinking” across government for a longer-term strategy.

He has been pushing for the creation of a government ministry of “poverty prevention and cure”, and for legally binding targets on child poverty.

“You have to be able to measure yourself, you can’t have the government marking its own homework,” he told Sky News.

Lord Bird also said he was a “great believer” in resurrecting Sure Start centres and expanding them beyond early years.

The New Labour programme offered support services for pre-school children and their parents and is widely seen to have improved health and educational outcomes. By its peak in 2009-2010 there were 3,600 centres – the majority of which closed following cuts by the subsequent Conservative government.

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Lord Bird on the ‘great distraction’ from child poverty

PM to meet families

Sir Keir Starmer’s government have since announced 1,000 Best Start Family Hubs – but many Labour MPs feel this announcement went under the radar and ministers missed a trick in not calling them “Sure Starts” as it is a name people are familiar with.

The prime minister is expected to meet families and children in Wales on Friday, alongside the Welsh First Minister, to make the case for his strategy and meet those he hopes will benefit from it.

Several other charities have urged ministers to go further. Both Crisis and Shelter called for the government to unfreeze housing benefit and build more social rent homes, while the Children’s Commissioner for England, Dame Rachel de Souza, said that “if we are to end child poverty – not just reduce it” measures like free bus travel for school-age children would be needed.

The strategy comes after the government set up a child poverty taskforce in July 2024, which was initially due to report back in May. The taskforce’s findings have not yet been published – only the government’s response.

Sir Keir said: “Too many children are growing up in poverty, held back from getting on in life, and too many families are struggling without the basics: a secure home, warm meals and the support they need to make ends meet.

“I will not stand by and watch that happen, because the cost of doing nothing is too high for children, for families and for Britain.”

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