close video Ara Hovnanian: Housing market normalizing despite supply shortage
Hovnanian Enterprises chairman and CEO Ara Hovnanian discusses the state of home builders and if the housing market hit bottom on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
Goldman Sachs expects home values to worsen through 2023 amid continued skyrocketing interest rates and declining housing prices.
The firm wrote to clients earlier this month that it predicts four U.S. cities will suffer the most catastrophic dips, drawing comparisons to the 2008 housing crash.
San Jose, California; San Diego, California; Austin, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona, will likely see noticeable increases before drastic decreases of more than 25%.
These declines would be similar to those witnessed during the Great Recession in 2008. Home prices across the U.S. fell around 27% at the time, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.
GOLDMAN SACHS ANNOUNCES REDUCTION IN ASSET MANAGEMENT INVESTMENTS
Goldman Sachs expects home values to worsen through 2023 amid continued skyrocketing interest rates and declining housing prices. (Reuters Photos)
"Our 2023 revised forecast primarily reflects our view that interest rates will remain at elevated levels longer than currently priced in, with 10-year Treasury yields peaking in 2023 Q3," Goldman Sachs strategists wrote, according to the New York Post. "As a result, we are raising our forecast for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.5% for year-end 2023 (representing a 30 bp increase from our prior expectation)."
In 2022, mortgage rates jumped from 3% to 6%.
"This [national] decline should be small enough as to avoid broad mortgage credit stress, with a sharp increase in foreclosures nationwide seeming unlikely," Goldman Sachs wrote. "That said, overheated housing markets in the Southwest and Pacific coast, such as San Jose MSA, Austin MSA, Phoenix MSA, and San Diego MSA will likely grapple with peak-to-trough declines of over 25%, presenting localized risk of higher delinquencies for mortgages originated in 2022 or late 2021."
San Jose, California; San Diego, California; Austin, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona (pictured), will likely see noticeable increases before drastic decreases of more than 25%. (iStock / iStock)
The bank says these cities will suffer the lowest prices this year because they became too detached from fundamentals during the COVID-19 pandemic housing boom.
Goldman Sachs also forecasts that many Northeastern, Southeastern, and Midwestern markets could see milder corrections.
Home prices are expected to dip slightly in New York City (-0.3%) and Chicago (-1.8%), while Baltimore (+0.5%) and Miami (+0.8%) will see higher prices, the firm said.
FEDERAL RESERVE INVESTIGATING GOLDMAN SACHS' CONSUMER BUSINESS
Home prices are expected to dip slightly in New York City and Chicago while Baltimore and Miami (pictured) will see higher prices. (iStock / iStock)
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"Assuming the economy remains on the path to a soft landing, avoiding a recession, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls back to 6.15% by year-end 2024, home price growth will likely shift from depreciation to below-trend appreciation in 2024," Goldman Sachs wrote.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 7.37% at its peak in November.
Week 10 in college football is here as we look toward some exciting conference games.
Saturday will feature a must-see matchup between No. 4 Ohio State and No. 3 Penn State at Beaver Stadium. Ohio State quarterback Will Howard is ready to take on the team he rooted for growing up in Pennsylvania, while Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is a game-time decision after sustaining a left knee injury. What changes would the Nittany Lions have to make if Allar is unable to play?
No. 18 Pitt and No. 20 SMU face each other in a big ACC matchup Saturday evening, with both teams entering this game undefeated in conference play. While both teams underwent some changes in the offseason to help them get to this point, how have those changes affected their game this season?
Our college football experts preview big games and conference title contenders and share quotes of the week ahead of Week 10’s slate.
Ohio State: Penn State coach James Franklin said this week that the status of quarterback Drew Allar will be a game-time decision. Allar is coming off a left knee injury that forced him to sit the second half of this past weekend’s win at Wisconsin. Led by defensive ends Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, the Buckeyes have the Big Ten’s best sack rate (9.7%). If Allar plays, his mobility could still be limited by the injury. That figures to give Sawyer, Tuimoloau and Ohio State’s other pass rushers prime opportunities to sack or pressure Allar.
If the Nittany Lions are forced to go with sophomore backup quarterback Beau Pribula, then Ohio State will have the chance to exploit his relative inexperience. Either way, the Buckeyes have to do a better job pressuring the passer than they did in their Oct. 12 loss at Oregon. In that 32-31 defeat, they failed to sack Dillon Gabriel once. Ohio State’s defense also failed to force a turnover. If the Buckeyes can’t force Penn State’s quarterback — whoever it turns out to be — into negative plays, they could have a hard time coming out of State College with a victory. — Jake Trotter
Penn State: Regardless of whether Allar or Pribula is at quarterback, Penn State needs to display creative offense that supplies big plays. Franklin hired offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki precisely for games like this. In last year’s 20-12 loss at Ohio Stadium, the Lions averaged only 3.5 yards per play with only one play longer than 20 yards. Kotelnicki can take some clues from Oregon, which really challenged Buckeyes cornerback Denzel Burke and others with an aggressive game plan. He also has versatile options such as tight end Tyler Warren. Penn State’s defense also has a chance to control the line of scrimmage against an Ohio State offensive front that has dealt with injuries and inconsistency, recording just 64 rush yards last week against Nebraska.
Abdul Carter (four sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss) could be a significant factor in pressuring Will Howard, and the Lions would really be helped if Dani Dennis-Sutton plays to provide a nice complement for Carter. Penn State also must be acutely aware of Tuimoloau, who delivered the best single-game defensive performance I’ve ever witnessed live two years ago at Beaver Stadium, when he had 2 interceptions, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery and a tipped pass that led to another interception. He hasn’t had a game anywhere near that good since, but Penn State can’t ignore him. — Adam Rittenberg
Who’s looking like a conference title contender going into Week 10?
ACC: The ACC used to be known for Coastal Chaos — the annual lunacy in its Coastal Division that upended expectations and resulted in tiebreaker scenarios so complicated NASA would have to get involved. Now, the virus has spread. SMU, Clemson and Miami all remain undefeated in ACC play — and none of them play against each other. That leaves a very real chance that all three will end up tied with only two able to move on to the ACC title game. And that’s not even mentioning Pitt, which is 7-0 (but does play SMU and Clemson over the next three weeks) with eyes on the title game, too. What does it all mean? At this rate, perhaps Virginia Tech (3-1 in ACC play) will end up winning it all. — David Hale
Big Ten: Oregon and Penn State are the two obvious answers, and Ohio State still has arguably the most star power in the conference, despite some line-of-scrimmage concerns. But Indiana absolutely has displayed the look of a true contender. The Hoosiers have controlled games from the get-go, outscoring their opponents 87-0 in the first quarter and 372-113 overall. Yes, the schedule concerns are valid, but that type of dominance in a Power 4 league isn’t a fluke. Even last week, without starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke, Indiana struck first against Washington on D’Angelo Ponds‘ 67-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Hoosiers aren’t overreliant on one player or position group.
Rourke isn’t their only effective quarterback, and Justice Ellison is one of several capable backs and Elijah Sarratt is one of six players with 15 or more receptions. The offensive line, meanwhile, has been exceptional, tying for 10th nationally in fewest sacks against. IU’s defense has individual standouts such as linebacker Aiden Fisher and end Mikail Kamara, but the collective strength of the unit — 13 players with two or more tackles for loss, 15 with at least a half a sack — consistently shines through. The Hoosiers probably will be tested Saturday at Michigan State and in the coming weeks, but they display the qualities of a legitimate contender in the Big Ten. — Rittenberg
Big 12: Let’s start with the obvious: BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) and Iowa State (7-0, 4-0) remain undefeated and would not play each other unless they meet in the Big 12 title game. If both manage to reach the finish line without a loss, it’s possible the winner would receive the playoff bye with the loser still qualifying for the playoff. There are too many variables to understand what would happen in that scenario, but it’s in play. But considering the parity in the conference, it’s probably premature to look that far ahead.
BYU was a play away from losing to winless Oklahoma State (0-5 Big 12), so it would be silly to feel confident about the result of any conference game left on the schedule. With only one loss each, Kansas State (4-1) and Colorado (4-1) are very much in the mix, and it wouldn’t be a surprise, at this point, if either played its way to the title game. Those appear to be the four primary contenders, but five others sit at two conference losses — TCU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, West Virginia and Arizona State — which means their hopes aren’t dead. — Kyle Bonagura
SEC: Fans across the league are already coming up with scenarios that could produce a four-way tie in the SEC heading into the conference championship game. There are some very intriguing possibilities, too, with so many teams in the mix playing each other over the next five weeks. But the team that looks to be hitting its stride, getting well and playing its best football at just the right time is Georgia, which is coming off a bye week after beating up on then-No. 1 Texas 30-15 two weeks ago in Austin. It’s Kirby Smart time, which means he has been exceptionally good at getting his teams to play their best in the games that mean the most. The Bulldogs have won six of their past seven top-five matchups. They also had this past week to rest up and get healthy, and Smart is hopeful his best offensive lineman, senior right guard Tate Ratledge, will be able to play Saturday against Florida after sitting out the past four games because of a high ankle sprain that required surgery.
On defense, having Mykel Williams back and healthy has made a huge difference, especially when it comes to rushing the passer. Now, opposing offenses have to account for Jalon Walker and Williams, who combined for five sacks in the win over Texas. It won’t be an easy path for Georgia. After the rivalry game against Florida in Jacksonville, the Bulldogs travel to Ole Miss the next week and then come home to face Tennessee. There’s still a lot to sort out in the SEC, but the top Dawg appears to be the same one we’ve seen over much of the past three years. — Chris Low
In what ways have SMU/Pitt changed from last season to maintain a top 25 spot?
SMU: SMU’s defense has been the story of this season, living by the old adage that stopping the run and winning the turnover battle will win you some ballgames. The Mustangs’ run defense has been stout, giving up 88.4 yards per game and 2.72 yards per carry, both fifth best nationally. They’re tied for ninth in the country with 17 turnovers and have four games with at least three takeaways, tied for the most. The result is they’re giving up just 21.4 points per game, including a remarkable stand last week in which the SMU offense lost six turnovers and the defense gave up zero points off those, with Duke reaching SMU territory 11 times and coming away with only 27 points.
The Mustangs have sought to beef up the defense in recent years, and that has paid dividends: A pair of Miami transfers, Elijah Roberts and Jahfari Harvey, are tied for the team lead with six tackles for loss, and they lead the team in hurries, with nine for Roberts and seven for Harvey, also adding three sacks each. Then Harvey blocked a 30-yard field goal attempt by Duke on the last play of regulation to save a 28-27 win. — Dave Wilson
Pitt: After last season’s 3-9 misery, Pat Narduzzi decided he needed wholesale changes on offense. He brought in Kade Bell to run a tempo system, which is often anathema to defense-minded coaches like Narduzzi. So far, the results have been what one might’ve expected: Pitt has scored more, but the defense has been on the field a ton as a result of the speed at which the offense moves (the Panthers are 133rd in time of possession). The miracle for Pitt is that all of those plays for the defense haven’t seemed to matter. Pitt picked off Kyle McCord five times in this past weekend’s win over Syracuse, and the defense has held its ground despite playing more plays per game (76.3) than any other team in the country. — Hale
Quotes of the week
“I’m stoked, I’m stoked, I cannot wait. It’s going to be a homecoming for me. I grew up a Penn State fan. I wanted to go there my whole life, they didn’t think I was good enough. I guess we’ll see [Saturday] if I was.” — Ohio State QB Will Howard, who grew up in Downingtown, Pennsylvania
“I’m looking forward to going down to Dallas and seeing what they’ve got down there. I’ve never played SMU. It’s one of those games you never played at, so different stadium. Growing up, Eric Dickerson in those goggles, that’s kind of what I grew up in, that era. That guy was a dude, watching him run down there. It’s homecoming. We’re a homecoming team, so maybe I’ll get to meet Eric Dickerson at the 50-yard line or something like that.” — Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi, on making friends in new conference stops.
“We try to concentrate on one game, and that’s the next one. I don’t know that it benefits us to kind of look out ahead and talk about the possibilities of a season. The most important thing is to attack the week and try to get prepared for the upcoming game, which is what we’re doing in this one. There’s enough emotion and enough at stake in this game. … Our guys know, and they’re mature enough to know what’s out there if we can continue to have success, but there’s not a more important game on our schedule than this one.” — Army coach Jeff Monken, whose Black Knights (7-0, 6-0) are ranked No. 21 in the AP poll and vying for the Group of 5’s spot in the College Football Playoff and a second straight Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
When they made America truly great its backbone was forged in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.
The steel for 80% of Manhattan’s skyscrapers, many of the US Navy’s battleships, and even the entire San Francisco Golden Gate Bridge, all came from its blast furnaces in the hills north of Philadelphia.
Its mammoth steel plants stretched for almost five miles.
They lie empty and unused, now a huge open-air museum for guided tours led by former plant workers like Don Young.
The 87-year-old has been married to Barbara for 20 years, but their marriage has been tested in recent months, as have many others in the most divisive presidential election in living memory.
Both Republicans, she is for Donald Trump, he is emphatically not.
Mr Trump, I pointed out, claimed he could make America great again. Did he believe him?
“No, I do not believe him. My wife does,” he said. “I’ve seen the rise of dictators in history.
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“As much as I am a studier of the history of industry, I’m also a studier of the history of politics and world politics. And, you know, Mr Trump’s campaign literally, literally mirrors that of Adolf Hitler.”
His wife sees Mr Trump completely differently: “I absolutely do not agree with that. And I’m sorry to hear my husband say this. And I actually believe we have seen what President Trump can do and how our country was when he was in office.”
Their town has recovered from the collapse of Bethlehem Steel. But it’s the state of America that worries Ms Young now.
And it is Mr Trump who can save it, she said.
“He is the future for America,” she said. “I don’t want to see people coming over our border. We’ve had women murdered and raped by illegal immigrants. Who wants their children dead as a result of fentanyl, which comes over the border?”
Trump is ‘going to run America into the ground’
Her husband’s view is diametrically opposed.
“I think he’s going to run America into the ground because he does not observe any of the Democratic norms that his predecessors have,” he said.
“He didn’t observe them when he was in office. And so that’s just a window on what will happen in this coming term.”
Pennsylvania will likely determine presidential election result
Their marriage mirrors the state of play in the place they live in.
Pennsylvania is on a knife edge, say the polls, split right down the middle and the outcome here will likely determine the result on election day in this most important of swing states.
They can agree on one thing. They cannot wait for this election to be over.
Mr Young said their marriage can survive a Trump victory. Ms Young thinks so too.
The closest, nastiest, most divisive presidential election in living memory will be over soon. The bitterness and division that has plagued it less so in this deeply polarised country.
It’s easy to see why Anora, the film currently creating a lot of awards buzz, is being described as a modern day Pretty Woman.
It tells the story of a young woman, a sex worker, who ends up falling in love with a very rich man; this time round, he’s the son of a Russian oligarch.
But the similarities end there. More than 30 years on from Richard Gere and Julia Roberts’ famous Hollywood ending, Anora takes the sugar-coating away from the realities of sex work.
It is one of those rare films that has already impressed critics – taking the biggest prize at this year’s Cannes Film Festival and now leading the nominations at the Gotham Awards – but will also appeal to a wider audience looking for something fun and smart, too.
It is the latest story from writer-director Sean Baker, a filmmaker who often focuses on marginalised people and has covered sex work in several of his previous works, from a retired porn star in Red Rocket to a transgender sex worker in Tangerine, and a character who solicits sex work online in The Florida Project.
The theme was never intentional, he tells Sky News, but after discovering more about the industry he realised he wanted to tell these stories.
“I never imagined me making five films in a row focused on sex work,” he says. “It just happened to be that when I started doing research on the first one, I met sex workers, became friends with sex workers, and discovered that there were a million stories to be told in that world. And each one can be individual and very different, being that there’s so many aspects of sex work, so one led to the next.
“I don’t know if it will continue, I’m not sure, it has to happen organically though – I’d never want it to be a shtick of mine, you know, I want it to be something I’m inspired to do and there has to be a reason behind it.”
‘The sex work community is amazing’
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Mikey Madison, who plays the lead character Anora – or Ani for short – is now tipped for best actress nominations come awards season next year.
She says she immersed herself in the world of her character when preparing for the role.
“I think that I went into the research not with much knowledge about sex work, and so I was able to learn a lot and educate myself in a way that I don’t know I would have if it weren’t for this film,” she says. “I’m so grateful to have that experience because the sex work community is amazing and I’ve made so many incredible friends.”
But that wasn’t the only prep Madison had to do. She’s listed in the credits as helping to choreograph her character’s dances, and she also had to learn Russian – though admits she’s out of practise again now.
“My Duolingo app has been bothering me trying to get me back into it. I think I just haven’t had a chance to practise any of it, but on the last handful of days of shooting, I was able to listen to pretty full conversations and understand what they were talking about. And at this point, I think it’s gone, but maybe I’ll be able to redevelop it.”
When Anora competed at Cannes in May it won the Palme d’Or, the top prize for the best feature film.
Baker says the win was far more than just a tick off his bucket list.
“I think it was the bucket list! I mean, that was it,” he says. “It’s been incredible, it really has been, and I really didn’t expect it – we were just so happy to be in competition at Cannes, and next thing you know we’re at the awards ceremony, and next thing you know I’m up on stage and George Lucas is handing me the Palme d’Or.”