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CEO of Alphabet and Google Sundar Pichai in Warsaw, Poland on March 29, 2022.

Mateusz Wlodarczyk | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The Department of Justice’s latest challenge to Google’s tech empire is an ambitious swing at the company with the potential to rearrange the digital advertising market. But alongside the possibility of great reward comes significant risk in seeking to push the boundaries of antitrust law.

“DOJ is going big or going home here,” said Daniel Francis, who teaches antitrust at NYU School of Law and previously worked as deputy director of the Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Competition, where he worked on the agency’s monopoly case against Facebook.

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The DOJ’s antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter has indicated he’s comfortable with taking risks, often saying in public remarks that it’s important to bring cases that seek to challenge current conventions in antitrust law. He said he prefers more permanent remedies like breakups compared to promises to change behavior. That sentiment comes through in the DOJ’s request in its latest lawsuit for the court to force Google to spin off parts of its ad business.

Antitrust experts say the Justice Department paints a compelling story about the ways Google allegedly used acquisitions and exclusionary strategies to fend off rivals and maintain monopoly power in the digital advertising space. It’s one that, if the government gets its way, would break apart a business that’s generated more than $50 billion in revenue for Google in the last quarter, potentially opening up an entire market in which Google is currently one of the most important players.

But, they warn, the government will face significant challenges in proving its case in a court system that progressive antitrust enforcers and many lawmakers believe has taken on a myopic view of the scope of antitrust law, especially when it comes to digital markets.

“If they prove the violations they allege, they’re going to get a remedy that’s going to shake up the market,” said Doug Melamed, a scholar-in-residence at Stanford Law School who served at the Antitrust Division, including as acting assistant attorney general, from 1996-2001 during the landmark case against Microsoft. “But it’s not obvious they’re going to win this case.”

Challenges and strengths

Experts interviewed for this article said the DOJ will face the challenge of charting relatively underexplored areas of antitrust law in proving to the court that Google’s conduct violated the law and harmed competition without benefitting consumers. Though that’s a tall order, it could come with a huge upside if the agency succeeds, possibly expanding the scope of antitrust law for digital monopoly cases to come.

“All antitrust cases are an uphill battle for plaintiffs, thanks to 40 years of case law,” said Rebecca Haw Allensworth, an antitrust professor at Vanderbilt Law School. “This one’s no exception.”

But, Allensworth added, the government’s challenges may be different than those in many other antitrust cases.

“Usually the difficulty, especially in cases involving platforms, is market definition,” she said. In this case, the government argued the relevant market is publisher ad servers, ad exchanges, and advertiser ad networks — the three sides of the advertising stack Google has its hand in, which the DOJ said it’s leveraged to box out rivals. “And here, I think that that is relatively straightforward for the DOJ.”

“One way to look at the latest complaint is that it is the newest and most complete draft of a critique that antitrust agencies in the U.S. and abroad have been building against Google for over a decade,” William Kovacic, who served on the Federal Trade Commission from 2006 to 2011 and is now a professor at George Washington Law, said in an email.

Google, for its part, has said the latest DOJ lawsuit “tries to rewrite history at the expense of publishers, advertisers and internet users.” It claims the government is trying to “pick winners and losers” and that its products have expanded options for publishers and advertisers.

Compared to the DOJ’s earlier lawsuit, which argued Google maintained its monopoly over search services through exclusionary contracts with phone manufacturers, this one advances more nontraditional theories of harm, according to Francis, the NYU Law professor and former FTC official. That also makes it more likely that Google will move to dismiss the case to at least narrow the claims it may have to fight later on — a move it did not take in the earlier suit, he added.

“This case breaks much more new ground and it articulates theories, or it seems to articulate theories, that are right out on the border of what existing antitrust prohibits,” Francis said. “And we’re going to find out, when all is said and done, where the boundaries of digital monopolization really lie.”

High risk, high reward?

CEO of Alphabet and Google Sundar Pichai in Warsaw, Poland on March 29, 2022.

Mateusz Wlodarczyk | Nurphoto | Getty Images

DOJ took a gamble with this case. But if it wins, the rewards could match the risk.

“In terms of the potential impact of the remedy, this could be a bigger case than Microsoft,” said Melamed.

Still, Francis cautioned, a court could order a less disruptive remedy, like paying damages if it finds the government was harmed as an advertising purchaser, or simply requiring Google to stop the allegedly illegal conduct, even if it rules in the DOJ’s favor.

Like all antitrust cases, this one is unlikely to be concluded anytime soon. Still, a key decision by the Justice Department could make it speedier than otherwise expected. The agency filed the case in the Eastern District of Virginia, which has gained a reputation as the “rocket docket” for its relatively efficient pace in moving cases along.

“What that signals to me is that, given the timeframe for antitrust litigation is notoriously slow, DOJ is doing everything that they can in their choice of venue to ensure that this litigation moves forward before technological and commercial changes make it obsolete,” Francis said.

He added that the judge who has been assigned the trial, Clinton appointee Leonie Brinkema, is regarded as smart and fair and has handled antitrust cases before, including one Francis litigated years ago.

“I could imagine that both sides will feel pretty good about having drawn Judge Brinkema as a fair, efficient and sophisticated judge who will move the case along in an expeditious way,” Francis said.

Still, there are hardly any judges who have experience with a case like this one, simply because there haven’t been that many digital monopolization cases decided in court.

 “So any judge who would be hearing this case is going to be confronting frontier issues of antitrust theory and principle,” Francis said.

Immediate impact

Outside of the courts, the case could have a more immediate impact in other ways.

“From the point of view of strategy, the case adds a major complication to Google’s defense by increasing the multiplicity and seriousness of public agency antitrust enforcement challenges,” said Kovacic, the former FTC commissioner. “The swarming of enforcement at home and abroad is forcing the company to defend itself in multiple fora in the US and in jurisdictions such as the EU and India.”

Regardless of outcomes, Kovacic said the sheer volume of lawsuits and regulation can create a distraction for top management and will likely lead Google to more carefully consider its actions.

“That can be a serious drag on company performance,” Kovacic wrote.

The suit could also lend credence to lawmakers’ efforts to legislate around digital ad markets. One proposal, the Competition and Transparency in Digital Advertising Act, would prohibit large companies like Google from owning more than one part of the digital advertising system, so it couldn’t own tools on both the buy and sell side as it currently does.

Importantly, the bill is sponsored by Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on antitrust. Lee has remained skeptical of some other digital market antitrust reforms, but his leadership on this bill suggests there may be a broader group of Republicans willing to support this kind of measure.

“An antitrust lawsuit is good, but will take a long time and apply to only one company,” Lee tweeted following the DOJ’s announcement, saying he would soon reintroduce the measure. “We need to make sure competition works for everyone, and soon.”

Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., who has backed the House version of the bill, called the digital ad legislation “The most important bill we can move forward” in a recent interview with The Washington Post.

“This is clearly the blockbuster case so far from the DOJ antitrust division,” Francis said. “And I think it represents a flagship effort to establish new law on the borders of monopolization doctrine. And at the end of it — win, lose or draw — it’s really going to contribute to our understanding of what the Sherman Act actually prohibits in tech markets.”

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Here's why some experts are calling for a breakup of Big Tech after the House antitrust report

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CME disruption, Black Friday, the K-beauty boom and more in Morning Squawk

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CME disruption, Black Friday, the K-beauty boom and more in Morning Squawk

CME Group sign at NYMEX in New York.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

This is CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

1. Down and out

Stock futures trading was halted this morning after a data center “cooling issue” took down several Chicago Mercantile Exchange services. Individual stocks were still trading before the bell, while the CME said futures indexes and options trading would open fully at 8:30 a.m. Follow live markets updates here.

The stock market has rebounded during the holiday-shortened trading week. But the three major indexes are still on pace to end November’s trading month — which ends with today’s closing bell — in the red. The Dow and S&P 500 are poised to snap six-month winning streaks, while the Nasdaq Composite is on track to see its first negative month in eight.

Today’s trading session ends early at 1 p.m. ET.

2. Shopping and dropping

A Black Friday sale sign is displayed in a shop window at an outlet mall in Carlsbad, California, U.S., Nov. 25, 2025.

Mike Blake | Reuters

Black Friday was once considered the biggest in-person shopping day of the year, drawing huge crowds to stores in search of bargains. But while millions are still expected to partake in the occasion, it’s not what it used to be.

Here’s what to know:

  • In the past six years, online sales have outpaced brick-and-mortar spending on Black Friday. Data shows in-person foot traffic has been mostly flat over the last few years, as well.
  • No matter where they make their purchases, shoppers are also skeptical that they’re getting the best deals.
  • As CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge reports, the shift has meant a change in strategy for many of the retail industry’s biggest names. Some have started offering their holiday sales earlier in the season, while others are spacing out their promotions.
  • Deloitte reported that the average consumer will shell out $622 between Nov. 27 and Dec. 1, a decrease of 4% from last year.
  • Even as the day of deals loses its allure, AT&T found that Gen Z participates the most, while their older counterparts do their shopping closer to Christmas.

3. AI comeback

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

Alphabet has been a notable exception to the recent tech downturn. Shares of the Google parent have surged more than 13% this month as Wall Street sees the company as an AI leader.

Alphabet began the month by announcing its latest tensor processing units, or TPUs, called Ironwood. Last week, the company launched its latest AI model, Gemini 3, which caught positive attention from Silicon Valley heavyweights.

Shares of the stock are now up close to 70% this year, making it the best-performer within megacap tech. But experts told CNBC’s Jennifer Elias that Alphabet’s lead in the competitive AI market is marginal and could be hard to hold onto.

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4. Tech’s tug of wars

Alibaba announced plans to release a pair of smart glasses powered by its AI models. The Quark AI Glasses are Alibaba’s first foray into the smart glasses product category.

Alibaba

The Alphabet-Nvidia AI race isn’t the only tech rivalry that has heated up in recent days.

Alibaba‘s AI-powered smart glasses went on sale yesterday. With its new wearable tech offering, the Chinese tech company is going up against major players — namely Meta, which unveiled its smart glasses with Ray Ban in September.

Meanwhile, Counterpoint Research found Apple is poised to ship more smartphones than Samsung this year for the first time in 14 years. Apple is also poised to boast a larger market share, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales.

5. From Seoul to Los Angeles

Carly Xie looks over facial mask items at the Face Shop, which specializes in Korean cosmetics, in San Francisco, April 15, 2015.

Avila Gonzalez | San Francisco Chronicle | Hearst Newspapers | Getty Images

American shoppers are increasingly looking to South Korea for their cosmetics. NielsenIQ found U.S. sales of so-called “K-beauty” products are slated to surge more than 37% this year to above $2 billion.

Retailers ranging from beauty product hubs Ulta and Sephora to big-box chains Walmart and Costco are jumping on the trend. On top of that, Olive Young — aka the “Sephora of Seoul” — is opening its first U.S. store in Los Angeles next year.

The Daily Dividend

Here are some stories worth circling back to over the weekend:

CNBC’s Chloe Taylor, Gabrielle Fonrouge, Laya Neelakandan, Jessica Dickler, Sarah Min, Sean Conlon, Jennifer Elias, Arjun Kharpal and Luke Fountain contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.

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What’s going on at Nexperia? Dutch chipmaker issues urgent plea to its China unit

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What’s going on at Nexperia? Dutch chipmaker issues urgent plea to its China unit

This photograph shows a general view of Nexperia headquarters in Nijmegen on November 6, 2025.

John Thys | Afp | Getty Images

Dutch chipmaker Nexperia has publicly called on its China unit to help restore supply chain operations, warning in an open letter that customers across industries are reporting “imminent production outages.”

Nexperia’s Dutch unit said Thursday that its open letter followed “repeated attempts to establish direct communication through conventional channels” but did not have “any meaningful response.”

The letter marks the latest twist in a long-running saga that has threatened global automotive supply chains and stoked a bitter battle between Amsterdam and Beijing over technology transfer.

“We welcomed the Chinese authorities’ commitment to facilitate the resumption of exports from Nexperia’s Chinese facility and that of our subcontractors, enabling the continued flow of our products to global markets,” Nexperia’s Dutch unit said in the letter.

“Nevertheless, customers across industries are still reporting imminent production stoppages. This situation cannot persist,” they added. The group called on the leadership of Nexperia’s entities in China to take steps to restore the established supply flows without delay.

Chinese company Wingtech, which owns Netherlands-based Nexperia, reportedly hit back on Friday morning. Wingtech accused the firm’s Dutch unit of seeking to strip the firm of its shareholder rights and pushing to establish a non-Chinese supply chain, Reuters reported. CNBC has also contacted Wingtech for comment.

In this photo illustration, the logo of semiconductor manufacturer Nexperia is displayed on a screen.

Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

Nexperia manufactures billions of so-called foundation chips — transistors, diodes and power management components — that are produced in Europe, assembled and tested in China, and then re-exported to customers in Europe and elsewhere.

The chips are relatively low-tech and inexpensive but are needed in almost every device that uses electricity. In cars, those chips are used to connect the battery to motors, for lights and sensors, for braking systems, airbag controllers, entertainment systems and electric windows.

How did we get here?

The situation began in September, when the Dutch government invoked a Cold War-era law to effectively take control of Nexperia. The highly unusual move was reportedly made after the U.S. raised security concerns.

Beijing responded by moving to block its products from leaving China, which, in turn, raised the alarm among global automakers as they faced shortages of the chipmaker’s components.

In an apparent reprieve last week, however, the Dutch government said it had suspended its state intervention at Nexperia following talks with Chinese authorities. It was thought at the time that this could bring an end to the dispute and pave the way for a restoration of normal supply chains.

Rico Luman, senior sector economist for transport and logistics at Dutch bank ING, said it remains unclear how long the situation will last.

“The imposed measures to seize the Dutch Nexperia subsidiary have been lifted, but there are still talks ongoing about restoring the corporate structure and relation with parent company Wingtech,” Luman told CNBC by email.

“It’s not only about supplies of finished chips, it’s also about wafer supplies from Europe to the Chinese entity,” Luman said, adding that companies including Japan’s Nissan and German auto supplier Bosch are among the firms to have warned about looming shortages.

Nissan signage at a dealership in Richmond, California, US, on Friday, June 21, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

A spokesperson for the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), which represents Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz Group and BMW among hundreds of others, warned of elevated risks to supply, “particularly for the first quarter” of 2026.

“In recent weeks, the German automotive industry has largely been able to keep production stable through intensive efforts,” a VDA spokesperson told CNBC by email.

“However, the disruptions in the supply chain for Nexperia parts caused by political intervention have not been fundamentally resolved. Component availability remains uncertain,” they added.

ING’s Luman said the Nexperia situation is somewhat comparable to China’s rare earth export controls.

“The Chinese position appears strong again as European manufacturers are dependent on the supplies. And comparable to the rare earths, it’s not fully transparent which buyer is able to qualify for which chip supplies,” Luman said.

— CNBC’s Annika Kim Constantino contributed to this report.

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Leonardo unveils ‘Michelangelo Dome’ as Europe looks to bolster sovereign defense systems

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Leonardo unveils 'Michelangelo Dome' as Europe looks to bolster sovereign defense systems

Italian defense company Leonardo has announced plans for an AI-powered shield for cities and critical infrastructure (Leonardo S.p.A. and subsidiaries)

© Leonardo S.p.A. and subsidiaries

Italian defense company Leonardo on Thursday unveiled plans for an AI-powered shield for cities and critical infrastructure, adding to Europe’s push to ramp up sovereign defense capabilities amid rising geopolitical tensions.

The system, dubbed the “Michelangelo Dome” in a nod to Israel’s Iron Dome and U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for a “Golden Dome,” will integrate multiple defense systems to detect and neutralize threats from sea to air including missile attacks and drone swarms.

Leonardo’s shares were marginally higher Thursday and is up around 77% since January, amid a year of steep rises for defense stocks across Europe as the region’s governments have hiked defense spending. 

The UK’s BAE Systems rose 42.7% since the start of 2025, Germany’s Rheinmetall 148.9% and France’s Thales 63.8%.

Leonardo’s dome will be built on what CEO Roberto Cingolani called an “open architecture” system meaning it can operate alongside any country’s defense systems.

“In a world where threats evolve rapidly and become ever more complex — and where defending is costlier than attacking — defense must innovate, anticipate and embrace international cooperation,” said Cingolani, during an event on Thursday evening.

The company is targeting the project being fully operational by the end of the decade.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury told CNBC earlier on Thursday that the protocols to exchange data between countries and teams on the battlefield were still “still quite limited,” adding it could take a decade to build out Europe’s “digital battlefield.”

Europe’s defense push

European governments have rapidly committed to increased defense spending as the U.S., a key ally for the bloc, has previously threatened to reduce financial support in the region

In May the EU announced a 150 billion euro ($173.5 million) programme to provide long-term loans to member states for defense procurement and industrial capacity. NATO members also committed to increasing defense and security spending to 5% by 2035 in June.

Why private investors are pouring billions into Europe's defense tech sector

Leonardo’s unveiling of its new dome system is part of a sector wide move from leading defense primes that’s seeing them shift “investment from standalone hardware to integrated command architectures,” Loredana Muharremi, equity analyst at Morningstar told CNBC. 

“Modern warfare is won by the network that can integrate every platform into one decision cycle,” she said. “The winners will be the contractors that own the network layer, not the metal, which capture recurring upgrades and scale.”

Risks to Leonardo’s dome system include execution delays and “dependency on European procurement cycles,” Meghan Welch, managing director at Brown Gibbons Lang & Company told CNBC.

European primes are also increasingly competing with an emerging class of defense tech startups in the region.

German AI drone startup Helsing raised 600 million euros and doubled its valuation to 12 billion euros in June, the Financial Times reported. Quantum Systems, which also develops autonomous defense tech, announced Friday it has tripled its valuation to above 3 billion euros after a 180 million euro raise.

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