Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at an Apple special event at Apple Park in Cupertino, California on September 7, 2022. – Apple is expected to unveil the new iPhone 14. (Photo by Brittany Hosea-Small / AFP) (Photo by BRITTANY HOSEA-SMALL/AFP via Getty Images)
Brittany Hosea-small | Afp | Getty Images
Analysts expect Apple to post its first year-over-year revenue decline since 2019’s March quarter when it reports earnings on Thursday. There are a few contributing factors.
The company couldn’t build enough of its high-end iPhones when its primary assembly facility in China was shut down for weeks during Covid lockdowns. Customers in many regions noticed as early as November that Apple couldn’t promise Christmas delivery of a new iPhone.
Apple gave a rare warning to investors that month explaining that production issues would result in lower shipments than “previously anticipated.” It was a data point that caused many analysts watching the stock to cut their estimates.
“We believe the peak impact of the disruptions was felt in early to mid November as wait times hit an extreme level (link) as the wait time in the US for the 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max reached 34 days while wait time in China at the high-end hit 36 days,” UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in January.
Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect Apple to report just over $121 billion in revenue in the December quarter, which would be a slight decline from the company’s $123.9 billion from a year ago.
But the problems aren’t Apple-specific. The PC and smartphone markets are slumping as consumers and businesses digest sales from the pandemic and cut costs to prepare for a possible recession.
The smartphone market saw an 18% decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, according to IDC, the worst decline ever recorded by the market research firm. The PC market fell 28% in the fourth quarter, according to the company. But many investors believe that Apple is outperforming its competitors even in a contracting market.
“While the state of consumer demand remains a near-term concern, we believe the underlying drivers of Apple’s model – a growing installed base and spend per user – remain intact, and that the strength/stability of Apple’s ecosystem remains undervalued,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note earlier this month.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:
Revenue: $121.19 billion
Earnings per share: $1.94 per share
iPhone revenue: $68.29 billion
iPad revenue: $7.76 billion
Mac revenue: $9.63 billion
Other products revenue: $15.26 billion
Services revenue: $20.67 billion
Apple’s March quarter guidance
Apple hasn’t given guidance since 2020, citing uncertainty first caused by the pandemic. However, the company usually provides a few data points that can give analysts a sense of how it’s doing.
Investors want to know whether the shortage of iPhone 14 Pro models in the December quarter will drive demand in the March quarter now that supply has improved.
Analysts expect just over $98 billion in sales in the March quarter, according to consensus estimates, signifying slight year-over-year growth.
“While we believe it’s well understood that Apple’s March quarter revenue should decline at a less-than-seasonal rate due to the pushout of iPhone demand from the December quarter to the March quarter,” Morgan Stanley’s Woodring wrote in a note last week, “the consumer electronics spending backdrop remains challenging, with tablets, PCs and more discretionary products (i.e. wearables) all facing continued demand headwinds.”
But if consumer confidence erodes in the face of higher interest rates and shrinking savings around the world, then Apple could suggest to investors that the company’s March quarter will be slow.
“While we don’t expect the resumption of detailed guidance typical of Apple earnings prior to Covid, we expect the commentary to be cautious regarding Product demand across the board,” UBS’s Vogt wrote.
If management commentary is soft, investors looking for a silver lining might want to look at Apple’s services business, which is profitable and has been growing strongly for years. However, several data points in the fourth quarter, including Apple’s own App Store payouts, suggest a significant slowdown in App Store growth, although analysts are split on its severity.
The App Store is one of the largest components of services, but it’s only a part of the business, which includes online subscriptions, warranties and search licensing fees. Apple shares could push higher if services such as Apple TV+ and Apple Music look like they’re generating a higher percentage of Apple’s revenue, D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte wrote in January.
Services are expected to total $20.67 billion in the December quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates, representing a 5.9% growth rate.
Analysts will also watch to see if the strong dollar continues to hurt Apple, given that so much of its sales are overseas. During the December quarter, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen all weakened compared to the dollar. Apple management previously said the strong dollar would be a 10 percentage point drag on sales growth.
A YouTube tool that uses creators’ biometrics to help them remove AI-generated videos that exploit their likeness also allows Google to train its artificial intelligence models on that sensitive data, experts told CNBC.
In response to concern from intellectual property experts, YouTube told CNBC that Google has never used creators’ biometric data to train AI models and it is reviewing the language used in the tool’s sign-up form to avoid confusion. But YouTube told CNBC it will not be changing its underlying policy.
The discrepancy highlights a broader divide inside Alphabet, where Google is aggressively expanding its AI efforts while YouTube works to maintain trust with creators and rights holders who depend on the platform for their businesses.
YouTube is expanding its “likeness detection,” a tool the company introduced in October that flags when a creator’s face is used without their permission in deepfakes, the term used to describe fake videos created using AI. The feature is being expanded to millions of creators in the YouTube Partner Program as AI-manipulated content becomes more prevalent throughout social media.
The tool scans videos uploaded across YouTube to identify where a creator’s face may have been altered or generated by artificial intelligence. Creators can then decide whether to request the video’s removal, but to use the tool, YouTube requires that creators upload a government ID and a biometric video of their face. Biometrics are the measurement of physical characteristics to verify a person’s identity.
Experts say that by tying the tool to Google’s privacy policy, YouTube has left the door open for future misuse of creators’ biometrics. The policy states that public content, including biometric information, can be used “to help train Google’s AI models and build products and features.”
“Likeness detection is a completely optional feature, but does require a visual reference to work,” YouTube spokesperson Jack Malon said in a statement to CNBC. “Our approach to that data is not changing. As our Help Center has stated since the launch, the data provided for the likeness detection tool is only used for identity verification purposes and to power this specific safety feature.”
YouTube told CNBC it is “considering ways to make the in-product language clearer.” The company has not said what specific changes to the wording will be made or when they will take effect.
Experts remain cautious, saying they raised concerns about the policy to YouTube months ago.
“As Google races to compete in AI and training data becomes strategic gold, creators need to think carefully about whether they want their face controlled by a platform rather than owned by themselves,” said Dan Neely, CEO of Vermillio, which helps individuals protect their likeness from being misused and also facilitates secure licensing of authorized content. “Your likeness will be one of the most valuable assets in the AI era, and once you give that control away, you may never get it back.”
Vermillio and Loti are third-party companies working with creators, celebrities and media companies to monitor and enforce likeness rights across the internet. With advancements in AI video generation, their usefulness has ramped up for IP rights holders.
Loti CEO Luke Arrigoni said the risks of YouTube’s current biometric policy “are enormous.”
“Because the release currently allows someone to be able to attach that name to the actual biometrics of the face, they could create something more synthetic that looks like that person,” Arrigoni said.
Neely and Arrigoni both said they would not currently recommend that any of their clients sign up for likeness detection on YouTube.
YouTube’s head of creator product, Amjad Hanif, said YouTube built its likeness detection tool to operate “at the scale of YouTube,” where hundreds of hours of new footage are posted every minute. The tool is set to be made available to the more than 3 million creators in the YouTube Partner Program by the end of January, Hanif said.
“We do well when creators do well,” Hanif told CNBC. “We’re here as stewards and supporters of the creator ecosystem, and so we are investing in tools to support them on that journey.”
The rollout comes as AI-generated video tools rapidly improve in quality and accessibility, raising new concerns for creators whose likeness and voice are central to their business.
YouTuber Doctor Mike, whose real name is Mikhail Varshavski, makes videos reacting to TV medical dramas, answering questions on health fads and debunking myths that have flooded the internet for nearly a decade.
Doctor Mike
YouTube creator Mikhail Varshavski, a physician who goes by Doctor Mike on the video platform, said he uses the service’s likeness detection tool to review dozens of AI-manipulated videos a week.
Varshavski has been on YouTube for nearly a decade and has amassed more than 14 million subscribers on the platform. He makes videos reacting to TV medical dramas, answering questions on health fads and debunking myths. He relies on his credibility as a board-certified physician to inform his viewers.
Rapid advances in AI have made it easier for bad actors to copy his face and voice in deepfake videos that could give his viewers misleading medical advice, Varshavski said.
He first encountered a deepfake of himself on TikTok, where an AI-generated doppelgänger promoted a “miracle” supplement.
“It obviously freaked me out, because I’ve spent over a decade investing in garnering the audience’s trust and telling them the truth and helping them make good health-care decisions,” he said. “To see someone use my likeness in order to trick someone into buying something they don’t need or that can potentially hurt them, scared everything about me in that situation.”
AI video generation tools like Google’s Veo 3and OpenAI’s Sora have made it significantly easier to create deepfakes of celebrities and creators like Varshavski. That’s because their likeness is frequently featured in the datasets used by tech companies to train their AI models.
Veo 3 is trained on a subset of the more than 20 billion videos uploaded to YouTube, CNBC reported in July. That could include several hundred hours of video from Varshavski.
Deepfakes have “become more widespread and proliferative,” Varshavski said. “I’ve seen full-on channels created weaponizing these types of AI deep fakes, whether it was for tricking people to buy a product or strictly to bully someone.”
At the moment, creators have no way to monetize unauthorized use of their likeness, unlike the revenue-sharing options available through YouTube’s Content ID system for copyrighted material, which is typically used by companies that hold large copyright catalogs. YouTube’s Hanif said the company is exploring how a similar model could work for AI-generated likeness use in the future.
Earlier this year, YouTube gave creators the option to permit third-party AI companies to train on their videos. Hanif said that millions of creators have opted into that program, with no promise of compensation.
Hanif said his team is still working to improve the accuracy of the product but early testing has been successful, though he did not provide accuracy metrics.
As for takedown activity across the platform, Hanif said that remains low largely because many creators choose not to delete flagged videos.
“They’ll be happy to know that it’s there, but not really feel like it merits taking down,” Hanif said. “By and far the most common action is to say, ‘I’ve looked at it, but I’m OK with it.'”
Agents and rights advocates told CNBC that low takedown numbers are more likely due to confusion and lack of awareness rather than comfort with AI content.
MongoDB shares ripped more than 25% higher on Tuesday after the company blew past Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations and lifted its forecast as its cloud database platform gained traction with customers.
The database software provider posted adjusted earnings of $1.32 per share on $628 million in revenue. That topped the 80 cents adjusted per share and $592 million in revenue expected by analysts polled by LSEG. Revenues grew 19% from last year.
MongoDB said its Atlas platform grew 30% from a year ago and accounted for 75% of total revenues for the quarter. The company said it ended the period with more than 60,800 Atlas customers, with revenues expected to grow 27% for the platform in the current period.
“Q3 was an exceptional quarter that was driven by our continued go-to-market execution and the broad-based demand we are seeing across business,” said CEO Chirantan “CJ” Desai in his first earnings call at the helm of the company.
Dev Ittycheria, who ran the company for 11 years and took it public, stepped down in November.
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Desai believes the company is approaching a “once in a lifetime” opportunity as artificial intelligence, cloud and data trends reach a “true inflection point.” He told investors he plans to focus on building customer relationships and innovation in the coming months.
Citing those tailwinds, MongoDB boosted its guidance for the full year on Atlas growth and tailwinds from ongoing artificial intelligence demand. The company now anticipates revenues between $2.434 billion and $2.439 billion, up from prior guidance of $2.34 billion and $2.36 billion.
Analysts at Bernstein lifted their price target on shares to $452, expecting the stock to continue benefiting from accelerating growth as other software companies struggle.
“We expect strong consumption demand, potential upside from AI, and benefits from an easing interest rate environment to continue driving re-rating upside in the near term,” they wrote.
Ben Seri (CTO), Sanaz Yashar (CEO), Snir Havdala (CPO) of Zafran Security.
Courtesy: Eric Sultan | Zafran
Zafran Security, a cybersecurity startup created by an Iranian-born spy whose story helped inspire the hit Apple TV series “Tehran,” has raised $60 million, the company said Tuesday.
Sanaz Yashar, the former spy and CEO of Zafran, told CNBC that the funding round comes as a result of the accelerating speed and pace of cyberattacks due to the on-going AI boon. Zafran uses artificial intelligence and automation technology to manage threat exposure.
It’s “becoming much more severe that it was even a year ago,” she said in an exclusive interview.
The round brings Zafran’s total funding to $130 million since its founding in 2022. Zafran did not disclose the valuation at which it raised, but the startup said it has more than tripled annual recurring revenue since its last round for $70 million in September 2024. Annual recurring revenue is a term often used to measure income expected on a 12-month basis for a product.
The company plans to use the money to hire more people, Yashar said.
Menlo Ventures led the funding round, with participation from Sequoia Capital and Cyberstarts, which was an early investor in the startup Wiz that sold to Google for $32 billion in March.
Companies are looking for ways to reinvigorate their cybersecurity capabilities as AI reshapes the sophistication and capabilities of cyber criminals.
Yashar and co-founders Ben Seri and Snir Havdala created Zafran following an investigation into a ransomware attack on a hospital in Israel.
“The data was there,” Yashar told CNBC, adding that cohesive security tools might have prevented the attack. “If the security tools were talking to each other, they could block it.”
Yashar, who moved to Israel from Tehran at 17, served for 15 years in an elite cybersecurity intelligence unit within the Israel Defense Forces known as Unit 8200. She also led major investigations at threat detection firm FireEye and Mandiant, which Google bought in 2022.