Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at an Apple special event at Apple Park in Cupertino, California on September 7, 2022. – Apple is expected to unveil the new iPhone 14. (Photo by Brittany Hosea-Small / AFP) (Photo by BRITTANY HOSEA-SMALL/AFP via Getty Images)
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Analysts expect Apple to post its first year-over-year revenue decline since 2019’s March quarter when it reports earnings on Thursday. There are a few contributing factors.
The company couldn’t build enough of its high-end iPhones when its primary assembly facility in China was shut down for weeks during Covid lockdowns. Customers in many regions noticed as early as November that Apple couldn’t promise Christmas delivery of a new iPhone.
Apple gave a rare warning to investors that month explaining that production issues would result in lower shipments than “previously anticipated.” It was a data point that caused many analysts watching the stock to cut their estimates.
“We believe the peak impact of the disruptions was felt in early to mid November as wait times hit an extreme level (link) as the wait time in the US for the 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max reached 34 days while wait time in China at the high-end hit 36 days,” UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in January.
Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect Apple to report just over $121 billion in revenue in the December quarter, which would be a slight decline from the company’s $123.9 billion from a year ago.
But the problems aren’t Apple-specific. The PC and smartphone markets are slumping as consumers and businesses digest sales from the pandemic and cut costs to prepare for a possible recession.
The smartphone market saw an 18% decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, according to IDC, the worst decline ever recorded by the market research firm. The PC market fell 28% in the fourth quarter, according to the company. But many investors believe that Apple is outperforming its competitors even in a contracting market.
“While the state of consumer demand remains a near-term concern, we believe the underlying drivers of Apple’s model – a growing installed base and spend per user – remain intact, and that the strength/stability of Apple’s ecosystem remains undervalued,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note earlier this month.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:
Revenue: $121.19 billion
Earnings per share: $1.94 per share
iPhone revenue: $68.29 billion
iPad revenue: $7.76 billion
Mac revenue: $9.63 billion
Other products revenue: $15.26 billion
Services revenue: $20.67 billion
Apple’s March quarter guidance
Apple hasn’t given guidance since 2020, citing uncertainty first caused by the pandemic. However, the company usually provides a few data points that can give analysts a sense of how it’s doing.
Investors want to know whether the shortage of iPhone 14 Pro models in the December quarter will drive demand in the March quarter now that supply has improved.
Analysts expect just over $98 billion in sales in the March quarter, according to consensus estimates, signifying slight year-over-year growth.
“While we believe it’s well understood that Apple’s March quarter revenue should decline at a less-than-seasonal rate due to the pushout of iPhone demand from the December quarter to the March quarter,” Morgan Stanley’s Woodring wrote in a note last week, “the consumer electronics spending backdrop remains challenging, with tablets, PCs and more discretionary products (i.e. wearables) all facing continued demand headwinds.”
But if consumer confidence erodes in the face of higher interest rates and shrinking savings around the world, then Apple could suggest to investors that the company’s March quarter will be slow.
“While we don’t expect the resumption of detailed guidance typical of Apple earnings prior to Covid, we expect the commentary to be cautious regarding Product demand across the board,” UBS’s Vogt wrote.
If management commentary is soft, investors looking for a silver lining might want to look at Apple’s services business, which is profitable and has been growing strongly for years. However, several data points in the fourth quarter, including Apple’s own App Store payouts, suggest a significant slowdown in App Store growth, although analysts are split on its severity.
The App Store is one of the largest components of services, but it’s only a part of the business, which includes online subscriptions, warranties and search licensing fees. Apple shares could push higher if services such as Apple TV+ and Apple Music look like they’re generating a higher percentage of Apple’s revenue, D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte wrote in January.
Services are expected to total $20.67 billion in the December quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates, representing a 5.9% growth rate.
Analysts will also watch to see if the strong dollar continues to hurt Apple, given that so much of its sales are overseas. During the December quarter, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen all weakened compared to the dollar. Apple management previously said the strong dollar would be a 10 percentage point drag on sales growth.
FILE PHOTO: Kimbal Musk speaks onstage at Move Over NFTs. Here Come the DAOs during the 2022 SXSW Conference and Festivals at Austin Convention Center on March 14, 2022 in Austin, Texas.
Chris Saucedo | Getty Images
Kimbal Musk, the younger brother of the world’s wealthiest person, said Elon Musk “deserves to be paid,” as Tesla remains locked in a legal saga over its CEO’s pay package.
“I think my brother deserves to be paid,” Kimbal Musk said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. “He has zero pay for the past six to eight years. I don’t think that’s right. I’ll let Tesla shareholders make that decision, but I believe that it does need to be. He needs to be paid.”
Elon Musk isn’t paid a salary or any cash bonuses at Tesla. He is compensated through “performance awards” of valuable stock options that are granted based on Tesla hitting certain milestones.
Earlier this month, Tesla granted Elon Musk an “interim” pay package of 96 million shares, which would be worth about $29 billion. The package includes shares that vest in two years as long as he continues as CEO or in another key executive position.
The pay plan was approved by a “special committee” of the Tesla board, with Elon Musk and Kimbal Musk recusing themselves, board members Robyn Denholm and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson said in an Aug. 4 letter to shareholders.
The award came after a Delaware judge in December ordered Tesla to revoke Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package from 2018, which was the largest compensation plan in U.S. history for a public company executive.
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Before the Delaware ruling on his 2018 pay plan, in January 2024, Musk said he wanted even more pay and control of Tesla in a post on X, which was formerly known as Twitter.
“I am uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25% voting control,” Musk wrote at the time. “Enough to be influential, but not so much that I can’t be overturned. Unless that is the case, I would prefer to build products outside of Tesla.”
He was already building products outside of Tesla, including at his newest artificial intelligence venture, xAI, which was formed in Nevada in March 2023.
The new pay package was granted to Musk without a shareholder vote, and will only apply if Musk and Tesla lose on appeal in Delaware.
An investment group that works with pension funds, the SOC Investment Group, sent a letter this week to Nasdaq asking them to investigate Tesla, saying its board should have attained shareholder approval for the new package under Nasdaq listing policies.
Denholm and Wilson-Thompson wrote in the letter that the special committee is working to “address a longer-term CEO compensation strategy,” which it plans to put to a shareholder vote at Tesla’s upcoming annual meeting in November.
When Texas Instruments announced a $60 billion manufacturing megaproject in July, it was a bold bet that companies would want to mass produce foundational microchips on U.S. soil. In August, Apple vowed to do just that.
During the same Oval Office press conference where President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on chips from companies not manufacturing in the U.S., Apple CEO Tim Cook upped his companies’ U.S. spending commitment to $600 billion over the next four years, up from an original $500 billion announcement in February.
Part of that spending, Cook said, will go toward making “critical foundation semiconductors” for iPhones and other devices at Texas Instruments’ new chip fabrication plants in Utah and Texas.
In July, CNBC became the first news organization to see the inside of TI’s newest fab in Sherman, Texas. There, full production is on schedule to start by the end of 2025. It’s one of seven new factories the chipmaker is building in the U.S. to provide chips to major customers like Nvidia, Ford Motor, Medtronic and SpaceX.
Although Texas Instruments doesn’t make the world’s most advanced chips, its essential components are found almost everywhere, from smartphones to the graphics processing units powering generative AI.
“If you have anything that plugs into the wall, or has a battery in it, or has a cord in it, you probably carry more than one TI chip in it,” said Mohammad Yunus, TI’s senior VP of technology and manufacturing.
“The worry is their end customers. Like in the wake of tariff uncertainty, they don’t know what to expect. Are they stockpiling?” said Stacy Rasgon, senior analyst at Bernstein Research.
It remains to be seen whether demand will remain high once tariff uncertainties calm. Still, shares did recover some ground in August.
“I would position them as more of a tariff winner than a tariff loser,” said Timothy Arcuri, managing director at UBS. Arcuri said TI’s U.S. foundry will allow it to undercut the pricing of its rivals’ Taiwan-made chips.
The market for TI’s chips, however, is not a guarantee. After TI had trouble keeping up with demand during the chip shortage in 2020, Arcuri said TI’s share of the analog market “fell off a cliff.” It went from a high of 19.8% in 2020 to a low of 14.7% in 2024, according to UBS.
TI’s $60 billion megaproject includes four fabs in Sherman, Texas, one in Richardson, Texas, and two in Lehi, Utah. The new fabs will give TI five times the capacity it has today, Yunus told CNBC.
“They’re making a big bet on the fact that they regain share and that demand comes rocketing back,” Arcuri said. “If you don’t regain that share, it’s hard to justify building this much capacity.”
SM1 and SM2, the first two of four new chip fabrication plants being built by Texas Instruments in Sherman, Texas, shown on July 24, 2025.
Graham Merwin
Ramping to 300mm
While TI is well known for its graphing calculators, the company is also responsible for helping revolutionize the electronics industry. In 1958, TI engineer Jack Kilby filed the first patent for an integrated circuit. That paved the way for miniaturizing chips by building all the components of a circuit, not just the transistors, directly into a single piece of silicon.
The majority of TI’s business today comes from automotive and industrial customers that buy the company’s analog and embedded chips. Analog chips process signals like sound, light and pressure, like the temperature on a thermostat or voltage on power management chips that keep electronics safe when plugged in. Embedded chips are typically signal processors and microcontrollers for operating everyday devices, like telling the toaster to ding, the dishwasher to end a cycle or anti-lock brakes to engage.
Unlike the costly bleeding edge 2 and 3 nanometer chips made by giants like TSMC, TI’s chips are made on cheaper, legacy nodes: 45 to 130 nanometers.
That size “is the sweet spot for analog and embedded because they provide the right performance, the power, the voltage that our portfolio needs,” Yunus said.
While each TI chip costs about $0.40, according to Arcuri, they play crucial supporting roles for the world’s most advanced technologies. In a new partnership with Nvidia, for example, TI is developing a chip to drive efficiency in power-hungry data centers.
In 2009, TI made another bold move to help bring the cost of its chips down further. It opened the world’s first 300 millimeter fab for analogchips, re-purposing a memory fab from Qimonda after the chipmaker went bankrupt in the financial crisis.
“That’s what really was the catalyst for TI to have such a cost advantage,” Arcuri said.
The new wafer size gives TI “tremendous cost efficiency” because 300mm can fit “2.3 times more chips in it versus a 200mm wafer,” Yunus said. TI’s been closing and selling off some of its 200mm fabs, and all of its seven new fabs will produce on 300mm wafers.
Texas Instruments senior VP of technology and manufacturing Mohammad Yunus talks to CNBC’s Katie Tarasov in the first of TI’s four new chip fabrication plants in Sherman, Texas, on July 24, 2025.
Graham Merwin
Global supply, Texas growth
TI told CNBC it’s the country’s biggest analog and embedded semiconductor manufacturer, selling tens of billionsof chips each year. About 60% of revenue comes from customers based outside the U.S., with China making up about 20%.
About 75% of TI’s capital spend happens in the U.S., but it also makes chips abroad at fabs in Germany, Japan and China, the company told CNBC. It does testing and assembly in Mexico, Taiwan, the Philippines and Malaysia, where it’s spending $3 billion on two new sites, one of which is now in production.
TI’s global footprint is a benefit in the “dynamic situation” of tariffs right now, Yunus said.
“Our manufacturing across 15 different sites provides us the position to be able to support our customers, no matter where they are and in any political or economic environment,” he said.
Although TI considered building its new sites internationally in places like Singapore, the company ultimately settled on Sherman, Texas. The small city 65 miles north of Dallas has a population of just 50,000 people. It’s also home to a GlobalWafers factory. The Taiwan-based company manufactures the bare silicon wafers that chips, including TI’s, are made on.
Sherman Mayor Shawn Teamann said the city is now “the hub of the Silicon Prairie.”
Teamann’s grandfather worked alongside Kilby at TI in the 1950s. TI first came to Sherman in 1966, but when it announced plans to close its outdated 150mm fab, the city enticed TI to stay with incentives like tax breaks and water discounts.
The plan worked, and in 2021, TI announced it would stay in Sherman with acampus of new 300mm fabs. Now, the first of four 300mm fabs is complete in Sherman. Teamann said the 300mm project has more than doubled the city’s rate of population growth since it was announced in 2021.
At the state level, Gov. Greg Abbott has long offered incentives to chip companies willing to build in the state, from low taxes to the $1.4 billion Texas CHIPS Act passed in 2023.
Samsung is the other chip giant in Texas since 1996. The South Korean company is building a $17 billion advanced chip fab near Austin. That’s also where Apple, Amazon and AMD design many of their chips. Other chip companies in Texas include Infineon, NXP, X-Fab, Micron, GlobalFoundries, and tool supplier Applied Materials.
Water, power, workers
Making chips takes an immense amount of water, and about a quarter of Texas is in drought.
Luckily, Sherman has water rights to nearby Lake Texoma.
“It was about acquiring more rights, ramping up our production and being able to provide for the mass quantities of water it takes to run a semiconductor facility,” said Teamann, adding that the fab has almost doubled the amount of water Sherman uses.
TI will use about 1,700 gallons of water per minute when the new Sherman fab is complete, with plans to recycle at least 50% of that, Yunus said.
Chip manufacturing is also a power hungry process, so it helps that Sherman has a power plant that recently increased capacity. TI’s new Sherman fab will run entirely on renewable energy, said Yunus, adding that making chips on 300mm wafers also helps with energy efficiency.
“You use pretty much the same amount of energy but produce 2.2 to 2.3 times more chips,” he said.
Texas’ uniquely independent grid largely cuts the state off from borrowing power across state lines. In 2021, that grid failed during an extreme winter storm, causing at least 57 deaths and halting production at chipmakers like Samsung and NXP. TI told CNBC it maintained “critical operations.”
“We built redundancy into this facility,” Yunus said. “We have multiple transmission lines that feed power into the site. We also have large diesel storage tanks that we’re able to use, and generators that can continue to power the site for a few days.”
Highly skilled chip engineers are another scarce resource. It’s a talent pipeline that’s been stymied by the dramatic decline of U.S. global semiconductor manufacturing. The U.S. went from holding a 37% share of the market in 1990 to just 10% in 2022, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.
But TI has developed partnerships with various universities, community colleges and the military to fill the talent gap necessary to fill the roles at its Sherman fab.
“There’s a lot of younger people moving to the area. I actually think it’s going to be easier for them to get the talent now than it would have been 5 to 10 years ago,” Arcuri said.
With the full $60 billion project, TI said it expects to create 60,000 U.S. jobs, but the company could not give an expected completion date when asked for one.
“It’s hard to predict when exactly that will take off,” Yunus said. “We’re hopeful that we’ll continue to build out at a pretty brisk pace, but it really depends on the market.”
Watch the video for an in-depth look at TI’s first completed fab in Sherman: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/08/22/apple-will-make-chips-at-texas-instruments-60-billion-us-project.html
Waymo self-driving cars with roof-mounted sensor arrays traveling near palm trees and modern buildings along the Embarcadero, San Francisco, California, February 21, 2025.
Smith Collection/gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images
The Alphabet autonomous vehicle subsidiary received its first permit from the New York Department of Transportation on Friday to start testing in New York City, Mayor Eric Adams announced Friday. The rollout is the city’s first autonomous vehicle testing launch.
Waymo will start testing up to eight vehicles in Manhattan and Downtown Brooklyn through late September with the potential to extend the program. New York state law requires the company to have a driver behind the wheel to operate.
“We’re a tech-friendly administration and we’re always looking for innovative ways to safely move our city forward,” Adams said in a release. “New York City is proud to welcome Waymo to test this new technology in Manhattan and Brooklyn, as we know this testing is only the first step in moving our city further into the 21st century.”
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The news comes just two months after the company said it filed permits to test its cars in the city with a trained specialist behind the wheel.
Waymo has hit expansion mode on its services nationwide, launching in Austin this year and expanding its San Francisco area operations in March. Waymo also plans to bring autonomous vehicles to Atlanta, Miami and Washington, D.C. and recently said it will start operations in Philadelphia as it looks to break further into the Northeast market.
Waymo’s CEO said the company surpassed 10 million robotaxi trips in May.
For years, autonomous vehicle companies have sought to introduce their technology to The Big Apple, with Waymo previously taking a crack at it in 2021. At that time, the company rolled out some cars in certain areas of the city for manual driving and data collection.
New York City has also expressed interest in bringing autonomous vehicles to the city. Last year, the Adams administration implemented a series of safety requirements for responsible testing in the city and opened a permit program.
As part of the permit, Waymo must regularly meet and report data to DOT and work closely with law enforcement and emergency services.