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Britain’s economic reputation has been dealt a further blow after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that this year the UK economy will fare worse than any other country in the developed world – including Russia.

In the latest update of its economic forecasts, the IMF said that it expected the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 0.6% in 2023.

To add further humiliation for the chancellor and prime minister, even as Britain’s outlook was downgraded, most other countries around the world saw their forecasts upgraded.

But the Fund said that while the broader global economy was doing better than expected, with inflation having peaked and investment beginning to turn around, the UK economy would face a downgrade “reflecting tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.”

The UK had previously been forecast to grow by 0.3% this year and 0.6% next year.

Now, said the Fund, it should expect -0.6% this year and 0.9% growth in 2024.

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‘It’s bad news for the UK economy’

The comments are especially awkward for the Treasury, which has been criticised by some for its plans to raise taxes and reduce the budget deficit in coming years, resulting in an increase in costs for businesses and households, even as they continue to battle a cost of living crisis.

Up until recently, chancellor Jeremy Hunt had contextualised the UK’s relatively weak growth by pointing to the fact that the IMF’s recent forecasts projected that a third of countries were facing a recession.

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IMF calling UK ‘a dud economy’

However, the Fund has now upgraded its growth projections for Italy and Germany, with the result that both will now grow more than the UK in 2023.

Indeed, Britain’s -0.6% GDP is the worst of any economy included in its latest forecast update, including Russia – which despite facing sanctions from most of the West is projected to grow by 0.3%.

The poor growth was blamed on three factors: the UK’s dependency on gas – which has rocketed since the invasion of Ukraine; the fact employment has not returned to pre-pandemic levels; and increasing interest rates which have made mortgage payments more expensive.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas the director of research of the IMF laid out the rationale at a press conference on Tuesday morning.

The UK has a larger share of energy that comes from natural gas, he explained, “with higher pass through to final consumers” which has resulted in a “stronger cost of living crisis in the UK”.

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Why EY sees weaker 2023 outlook

Chancellor says UK ‘not immune’ from pressure

Mr Hunt said of the forecast: “The governor of the Bank of England recently said that any UK recession this year is likely to be shallower than previously predicted, however these figures confirm we are not immune to the pressures hitting nearly all advanced economies.

“Short-term challenges should not obscure our long-term prospects – the UK outperformed many forecasts last year, and if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, the UK is still predicted to grow faster than Germany and Japan over the coming years.”

The IMF said it now expected the global economy to expand by 2.9% in 2023.

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Although this is down from the 3.4% in 2022, it is nonetheless 0.2 percentage points faster than the Fund previously forecast in October.

It said: “Adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 [World Economic Outlook].

“On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible.

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Truss grilled over dire economy forecast

“On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress.”

After China’s decision to open up its economy and ditch its zero-COVID policy, the Fund upgraded its GDP projection from 4.4% to 5.2% this year.

It said the US would grow by 1.4%, rather than its previous projection of 1%.

Germany, which was previously forecast to shrink by 0.3%, is now slated to grow by 0.1%.

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Bosses of Octopus Energy and SSE clash over ‘postcode pricing’ proposals

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Bosses of Octopus Energy and SSE clash over 'postcode pricing' proposals

The head of Britain’s biggest energy supplier has claimed his competitors oppose proposals for so-called postcode pricing because they financially benefit from the current system.

Octopus Energy chief executive Greg Jackson told Sky News his business’s rivals were against customers being charged based on where they lived, rather than on a national basis, because they would lose out on profits.

He said: “A very small number of companies that today get paid tens of millions, sometimes in a single day, to turn off wind farms and generate gas elsewhere, don’t like it.

“The reason you’re seeing that kind of behaviour from the rivals is they are benefiting from the current system that’s generating incredible profitability.”

The government is currently considering whether to introduce the policy, which is also known as zonal pricing. Energy secretary Ed Miliband is expected to make a decision on the proposals by this summer.

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Octopus has become Britain’s biggest supplier with more than seven million customers.

Mr Jackson has been a vocal proponent, as he said he wants to charge customers less and boost government electrification policies by having cheaper electricity costs.

What is postcode pricing?


Business reporter Sarah Taafe-Maguire

Sarah Taaffe-Maguire

Business and economics reporter

@taaffems

Zonal pricing would mean electricity bills are based on what region you live in.

Some parts of Britain, like northern Scotland, are home to huge energy producers in the form of offshore wind farms.

But rather than feeding electricity to local homes and businesses, power goes into a nationwide auction and is bought to go across Britain.

As the energy grid is still wired for the old coal-producing sites rather than the modern renewable generators, it’s not straightforward to get electricity from where it’s increasingly produced to the places people live and work.

That leads to traffic jams on the grid, blocking paid-for electricity moving to where it’s needed and a system where producers can be paid a second time, to power down, and other suppliers, often gas plants, are paid to meet the shortfall.

Zonal pricing is designed to prevent paying the generators for power that can’t be used.

It would mean those in Scotland have lower wholesale energy costs while those in the south, where there is less renewable energy production, would have higher wholesale costs.

Whether bills go up or down depends on implementation.

Savings from one region could be spread across Britain, lowering bills across the board.

Mr Miliband has said he’s not going to decide to raise prices.

However, SSE’s chief executive Alistair Phillips-Davies described the policy as a “distraction” and said it could affect already agreed-upon upgrades of the national grid that will lower costs.

“I think you’ve got a very, very small number of people who are asking for this. It’s just a distraction. We should remove it now,” he said.

While Octopus Energy estimates that said postcode pricing could be introduced in two to four years, Mr Phillips-Davies said it could take until 2032 before it was implemented, by which time Britain would have “built much of the networks that are required to get the energy from these places down into the homes and businesses that actually need it”.

“We just need to stay true to the course,” he added.

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Unions, as well as industry and energy representatives, have also spoken out against the policy. Opponents include eco-tycoon Dale Vince and trade body UK Steel.

A joint letter signed by SSE, UK Steel, Ceramics UK and British Glass, along with the unions GMB, Unite and Unison, said zonal pricing could lead to scaled-back investment due to uncertainty and higher bills.

A separate letter signed by 55 investors, including Centrica and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, has also criticised the policy.

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Businesses facing fresh energy cost threat

However, Mr Jackson said many investors had not voiced opposition, with thousands of small and medium businesses instead backing the policy in the hope of paying less on energy bills.

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Poundland shake-up will see 68 stores and two distribution sites shut

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Poundland shake-up will see 68 stores and two distribution sites shut

The new owner of the discount retailer Poundland has revealed proposals to close 68 stores and two distribution centres under a shake-up that will also see frozen food and online sales halted.

Gordon Brothers, the investment firm which snapped up the struggling brand for a nominal sum last week, said its recovery plan “intended to deliver a financially sustainable operating model for the business after an extended period of under-performance”.

The plans are understood to be leaving 1,350 jobs at risk.

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It currently employs 16,000 people across the business.

Poundland said it was also seeking store rent reductions more widely under the plans.

Sky News reported on Monday that if creditors backed the restructuring, with a vote expected in late August, 250 of Poundland’s sites would also see their rent bills reduced to zero.

Poundland said its future focus would be on profitable stores, with its web-based operations becoming confined to browsing only.

As a result of the new priority, along with a shift away from most chilled and all frozen products, the company said it would no longer need its frozen and digital distribution centre at Darton in South Yorkshire.

It was to shut later this year.

Poundland also planned to close its national distribution centre at Bilston in the West Midlands early in 2026.

The retailer said it expects to end up with between 650 and 700 stores after the overhaul – assuming it achieves court approval.

It currently runs around 800 stores across the UK and Ireland but stressed Irish shops, which trade as Dealz, have not been affected.

Poundland’s struggles in recent years have included increased competition, poorly-received stock and rising costs.

Its managing director, Barry Williams, said: “It’s no secret that we have much work to do to get Poundland back on track.

“While Poundland remains a strong brand, serving 20 million-plus shoppers each year, our performance for a significant period has fallen short of our high standards and action is needed to enable the business to return to growth.

“It’s sincerely regrettable that this plan includes the closure of stores and distribution centres, but it’s necessary if we’re to achieve our goal of securing the future of thousands of jobs and hundreds of stores.

“It goes without saying that if our plans are approved, we will do all we can to support colleagues who will be directly affected by the changes.”

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US-UK trade deal ‘done’, says Trump as he meets Starmer at G7

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US-UK trade deal 'done', says Trump as he meets Starmer at G7

The UK-US trade deal has been signed and is “done”, US President Donald Trump has said as he met Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit.

The US president told reporters: “We signed it, and it’s done. It’s a fair deal for both. It’ll produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”

As Mr Trump and his British counterpart exited a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies where the summit is being held, the US president held up a physical copy of the trade agreement to show reporters.

Several leaves of paper fell from the binding, and Mr Starmer quickly bent down to pick them up, saying: “A very important document.”

President Donald Trump drops papers as he meets with Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Kananaskis, Canada. Pic: AP
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President Donald Trump drops papers as he meets with Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Kananaskis, Canada. Pic: AP

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Sir Keir Starmer hastily collects the signed executive order documents from the ground and hands them back to the US president.

Sir Keir said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, adding: “So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength.”

Mr Trump added that the UK was “very well protected” against any future tariffs, saying: “You know why? Because I like them”.

However, he did not say whether levies on British steel exports to the US would be set to 0%, saying “we’re gonna let you have that information in a little while”.

Sir Keir Starmer picks up paper from the UK-US trade deal after Donald Trump dropped it at the G7 summit. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer picks up paper from the UK-US trade deal after Donald Trump dropped it at the G7 summit. Pic: Reuters

What exactly does trade deal being ‘done’ mean?

The government says the US “has committed” to removing tariffs (taxes on imported goods) on UK aerospace goods, such as engines and aircraft parts, which currently stand at 10%.

That is “expected to come into force by the end of the month”.

Tariffs on car imports will drop from 27.5% to 10%, the government says, which “saves car manufacturers hundreds of millions a year, and protects tens of thousands of jobs”.

The White House says there will be a quota of 100,000 cars eligible for import at that level each year.

But on steel, the story is a little more complicated.

The UK is the only country exempted from the global 50% tariff rate on steel – which means the UK rate remains at the original level of 25%.

That tariff was expected to be lifted entirely, but the government now says it will “continue to go further and make progress towards 0% tariffs on core steel products as agreed”.

The White House says the US will “promptly construct a quota at most-favoured-nation rates for steel and aluminium articles”.

Other key parts of the deal include import and export quotas for beef – and the government is keen to emphasise that “any US imports will need to meet UK food safety standards”.

There is no change to tariffs on pharmaceuticals for the moment, and the government says “work will continue to protect industry from any further tariffs imposed”.

The White House says they “committed to negotiate significantly preferential treatment outcomes”.

Mr Trump also praised Sir Keir as a “great” prime minister, adding: “We’ve been talking about this deal for six years, and he’s done what they haven’t been able to do.”

He added: “We’re very longtime partners and allies and friends and we’ve become friends in a short period of time.

“He’s slightly more liberal than me to put it mildly… but we get along.”

Sir Keir added that “we make it work”.

The US president appeared to mistakenly refer to a “trade agreement with the European Union” at one point as he stood alongside the British prime minister.

Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on countries in April. At the time, he announced 10% “reciprocal” rates on all UK exports – as well as separately announced 25% levies on cars and steel.

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In a joint televised phone call in May, Sir Keir and Mr Trump announced the UK and US had agreed on a trade deal – but added the details were being finalised.

Ahead of the G7 summit, the prime minister said he would meet Mr Trump for “one-on-one” talks, and added the agreement “really matters for the vital sectors that are safeguarded under our deal, and we’ve got to implement that”.

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