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What Chevron's $75 billion stock buyback plan suggests

If you want a quick outlook on whether U.S. gas prices are likely to return to pre-Covid levels, a good place to start is earnings reports from Chevron and Exxon in the last week.

The outlook: Don’t count on it. In their fourth-quarter earnings reports, both companies showed clear signs of Big Oil’s renewed focus on managing costs, widening profit margins as oil prices stayed relatively high even after coming down considerably from last year’s highs, and confidence that they will be able to keep passing the rewards back to shareholders.

On Jan. 25, Chevron announced a $75 billion share buyback, which will allow it to use excess cash flow to cut the number of shares by up to as much as 20% — over multiple years and contingent on shares also used for employee options programs and M&A rather than just earnings per share increase. Chevron also raised its dividend to about 3.4%, double that of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. On Jan. 31, Exxon announced it had spent $15.2 billion to acquire stock in 2022 – up from $155 million a year earlier, and authorized another $35 billion this year and next.

The moves are the latest page in the industry’s post-2020 playbook: To satisfy investors who pushed energy stocks down more than 40% in a rising stock market between 2014 and 2019, oil companies slowed down drilling overinvestment that had caused cash-flow losses estimated as high as $280 billion. With the conserved cash, they raised dividends and boosted stock buybacks – moves that helped oil stocks double in the year after the 2020 election, as U.S. gasoline prices rose by more than half.

Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors, which advises mutual funds on energy investing, said Chevron and Exxon are in position to increase the dividend, increase production, and buy back stock. “They are doing what mature companies do – generate a lot of cash and return it to shareholders,” he said.

Big oil sees political pushback on buybacks

Fuel prices at a Chevron gas station in Menlo Park, California, on Thursday, June 9, 2022.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The industry’s reallocation of money to shareholders from new drilling comes as political leaders, including President Joe Biden, criticize oil companies for not restraining the price of gasoline as crude oil rose from $53 when Biden took office in 2021 to $77.50 now.  Exxon’s fourth-quarter profit margin of almost 14% of revenue compares to 11% a year ago.

“My message to the American energy companies is this: You should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends,” Biden said in October. “Not now. Not while a war is raging. You should be using these record-breaking profits to increase production and refining.”

The White House attacked both companies again this week after the buyback announcements.

In the market, and at the oil companies headquarters, it seems the opinions issued from the White House aren’t much of a factor in setting financial priorities. The price of oil is set on world markets, rather than by individual producers, Thummel said. The role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, in limiting production is the biggest factor in world prices. U.S. oil production, which does not have a central organization setting prices, has rebounded from a post-Covid low reached in April 2021, and reached 383 million barrels per month in October, closing in on the all-time high of 402 million in December 2019, according to U.S. government data.

Gas prices are also being hit by a loss of refining capacity. Part of this is longer-term, as refiners phased out less profitable facilities during the Covid-related demand drop, and following a wave of mergers forced by declining cash flow and share prices. And part of it stems from temporary shutdowns for maintenance made necessary by the cold wave in much of the country in December, CFRA Research analyst Stewart Glickman said.

Of the two biggest U.S. oil producers, Chevron made the more dramatic changes in the fourth quarter earnings releases, since Exxon had announced its buyback acceleration earlier, Glickman said.

The benchmark now is to spend roughly a third of operating cash flow on capital investment, a third on dividends and a third on stock buybacks. The buybacks can be dialed back if oil prices fall, and would likely be the first big cost cut oil producers would make if crude fell back to $60 a barrel from the current range about $77, he said. Buybacks, unlike dividends, aren’t treated as a “must” by investors each quarter, while cutting a dividend can lead to mass selling by investors.

Chevron is pretty close to Glickman’s recipe, with $49.6 billion of 2022 cash flow yielding $11 billion in dividend payments, $11.3 billion in share buybacks that were accelerating as the year ended to the $15 billion annual pace, and $12 billion in capital investment – enough to boost U.S. production by about 4% even as its international production dropped. Exxon made $76.8 billion in operating cash flow, invested $18 billion back into the business, spent $14.9 billion on dividends and $15.2 billion in stock purchases, according to its cash flow statement.

“What we learned from [earnings announcements] is that the industry is very committed to a conservative approach to spending,” Glickman said. “They could [drill more], but they would have to sacrifice their return thresholds, and neither they nor their shareholders are interested. I don’t blame them.”

Oil production is increasing

Despite the push to pay out more money, the companies have begun to produce slightly more oil in the U.S.

Chevron said its U.S. oil production gain was led by a double-digit increase in the Permian Basin of Texas. Exxon also said Permian production led its U.S. results, rising by nearly 90,000 barrels per day.

“Growth matters when it’s profitable,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said on the company’s earnings call on Jan. 27. Chief Financial Officer Pierre Breber said the company’s four major financial goals are dividend growth, buyback growth, capital spending and reducing debt.

Slower growth and cash distribution is the right path for an industry that is growing more slowly, Thummel said, especially since the government is prodding utilities away from relying on natural gas to make electricity and offering consumers tax credits to swap gasoline-powered cars and SUVs for electric models. 

In the early part of the last decade, investors applauded energy companies for investing more than their entire operating profit in new wells, believing that hydraulic fracking would propel the sector to a new wave of growth, Glickman said. And while U.S. production more than doubled during the fracking boom, it failed to produce the expected profit. Today, politicians are trying to foster a transition away from fossil fuels, making it dicey for Big Oil to invest in large offshore drilling plans that may need decades to pay off, he added.

“Why on earth would these companies agree to play ball with that kind of attitude?” he said.

The oil companies’ new approach stands in sharp contrast to that of EV maker Tesla, which has resisted shareholder pressure to begin buying back stock as it begins taking share in a market entwined with the oil companies. Tesla has hung on to its cash flow even as it completes a major factory-building campaign that has seen it add new plants in Texas, China, and Germany to its initial production facility in California. The company also produces batteries for its vehicles in Nevada.

That path works for Tesla because it is addressing a fast-growing market for EVs, while oil companies are trying to milk the cash from their existing, low-growth businesses and invest in new ones like carbon capture before current sources of cash flow like gasoline sales begin to shrink, Glickman said. But even Tesla should be returning cash to holders after a sharp decline in shares last year, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said.

“Our view is that it’s a no-brainer that Tesla should do a buyback now,” Ives said. “Tesla is in a robust position financially and this would send an important signal. The biggest capital spending is in the rearview mirror for now.” 

But Tesla’s most obvious short-term use of its $22 billion cash hoard might be preparing for any possible impact on profits of the price cuts it announced Jan. 13. 

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Black Friday e-bike sales from Lectric, MOD, and Aventon begin – up to $1,300 in savings with bonus deals, more

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November 1, 2024

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Black Friday e-bike sales from Lectric, MOD, and Aventon begin - up to ,300 in savings with bonus deals, more

It’s finally November and you know what that means – more and more Black Friday events! We’ve got three big e-bike brands all dropping savings this morning, led by Lectric’s Black Friday event that is taking up to $781 off its e-bike bundles, and also giving folks plenty of varying options at extra savings – 25% off accessories, discounted extra battery bundles, and even periodic Deals of the Day too – all starting from $999. The biggest news though, is MOD’s month-long event that has permanently dropped the prices across its e-bike lineup to provide affordable accessibility on top of the Black Friday discounts, with up to $1,300 in total savings starting from $1,799. Bringing up the rear is Aventon’s early savings event that offers the Pace 500.3 Cruiser e-bikes with free extra batteries for 120-mile travel at $1,599, among other models. Plus, all the other hangover Green Deals are in the links at the bottom of the page, like yesterday’s Tenways Black Friday sale and more.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

Lectric’s Black Friday sale begins with up to $781 taken off e-bike bundles from $999 and tons of bonus deals

With November’s arrival, Lectric has switched to Black Friday sales by taking up to $781 off its e-bike bundle lineup, with tons of additional accessory deals too. One noticeable stand out right off the bat is the ONE Long-Range e-bike that is getting $467 in free gear at $2,199 shipped. Normally you’d be pressed for $2,666 to get this bundle at full price, but as always, Lectric includes the savings on all the free gear (though the e-bike is maintaining its $100 price cut from earlier sales). This is the largest bundle package that we have seen on this e-bike to date, making it the best deal yet to score it for your commute, complete with a rear cargo rack, a pair of fenders, two waterproof pannier bags, and a 4L storage bag that stows away right in the frame.

It appears as though this is indeed the 2024 Lectric Black Friday sale starting well ahead of time. We can’t know for sure if the deals will get better later in the month, but considering stock can run out at any time with this brand on the popular models, you might want to jump in now.

Before we get into the e-bike itself, there’s a few additional savings options you can take advantage of during this sale. The first is a short-term “deal of the day,” that will likely change every few days throughout the month, with you able to currently get a phone mount and an e-bike bell at 40% off for $26 through the weekend. Next, you can get 25% off a selection of add-on accessories that you can browse here. Lastly, Lectric is taking 30% off its extra batteries, allowing you to double your e-bike’s mileage for farther-reaching travel more easily – with long-range models, specifically, getting a chance to add a battery to their bundle at an increased discount ($200, as opposed to $350 while buying it separately).

Lectric’s premium commuter model, the ONE Long-Range e-bike comes built with plenty of top-notch upgrades, like the Pinion auto-shifting gearbox, the carbon fiber drive belt, and the 24A potted motor controller for effortless peaking to its maximum output power. Depending on your state’s laws, you’ll be able to reach a top speed of 20 MPH to 28 MPH, with the 48V 14Ah battery powering its journey for up to 60 miles of range on a full charge. There are five PWR-supported pedal assistance levels with this model, with lag times between the system cut down thanks to the 96 magnet cadence sensors.

Don’t worry if you just want to cruise around with little effort, as there is a thumb throttle too, but our ride will also benefit from the 20-inch puncture-resistant city tires, an integrated headlight and taillight – plus, hydraulic mineral oil disc brakes, and a new color LCD display. It keeps a clean, sleek look with the hidden cable routing, and you’ll also get all the cargo-carrying support you could want with the free add-on gear that comes with the bundle, making this quite the upgrade opportunity for commuters.

Lectric Black Friday XPeak e-bikes with $781 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XP 3.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $454 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XP 3.0 Standard e-bikes with $454 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XPedition Cargo e-bikes with $455 and $406 bundles

Lectric Black Friday XP Trike with $419 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XPress 750 Commuter e-bikes with $365 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XP Lite 2.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $365 bundle

Black Friday e-bike

MOD kicks off Black Friday with massive price drops on its e-bikes at up to $1,300 off, deals from $1,799

MOD Bikes has launched its massive Black Friday e-bike sale through December 1, with some major news to start it off. As of today, the brand is making its quality e-bikes more accessible by permanently dropping the starting prices across its lineup of models, with the sale’s event then taking the savings further. My personal favorite amongst the bunch (and the latest addition to my commute – review coming soon), is the MOD Easy 3 e-bike that is now down at $2,199 shipped from its new $2,399 price tag. Permanently falling from its original $3,499 price, the changeup in its starting rate alone beats out all previous discounts we’ve seen, but now MOD is giving us even more with an additional $200 slashed off for Black Friday, landing it a new all-time low.

Coming into view with a motorcycle-inspired design, I’ve been absolutely loving my rides on MOD’s Easy 3 e-bike with its unique style and charm over other models on the market that more closely resemble mountain bikes. The 750W rear brushless geared hub motor provides steady power that peaks at 1,000W, all powered by the removable 720Wh MOD Samsung Powerpack battery that tag-teams rider support with five levels of pedal assistance (with an upgraded torque sensor over the predecessor’s cadence sensor). You’ll enjoy 28 MPH speeds for up to 50 miles with the battery at full charge, with tons of additional stock features that only heighten the experience while in the saddle.

There’s the 7-speed Shimano ALTUS derailleur, a nice upgrade from the more standard versions other e-bikes possess, with brake light functionality coming alongside the integrated LED headlight and taillight, while the dual suspension, hydraulic disc brakes, and multi-terrain tires increasing its performance ability for a comfortable ride. The features don’t stop there either, as there’s also the rear cargo rack, a much wider-than-normal saddle to accommodate differing body shapes/sizes, fenders over both wheels, a thumb throttle, a bell, and an S3 smart color display that lets you charge our devices via the USB port. It even has password security locking capabilities for added piece of mind.

There’s also the upgraded MOD Easy SideCar 3 package that is down at $3,499 shipped from its new $3,899 price tag (permanently cut from its original $4,799 MSRP). It sports a 150-pound payload capacity which is great if you want to have some joyriding fun with kids, teens, or adults who fall under the limit. There are no seatbelts though, but the company has designed it with your furry pals in mind, including dedicated D-ring anchor points to secure your dog’s leash or harness.

***Note: Remember, all of the models you see listed below just saw $900 to $1,100 in permanent price cuts and are now an additional $200 to $400 off for Black Friday. 

MOD Black Friday deals:

Black Friday e-bike

Aventon has launched its early Black Friday sale alongside the launch of its new Abound SR model, with up to $300 being taken off its e-bikes, as well as a free extra battery bundle. If you’re hoping to score the doubled mileage deal, you’ll find the free extra battery coming with the Pace 500.3 Step-Over e-bike at $1,599 shipped and its Step-Through counterpart that is also down at $1,599 shipped. Normally $1,799, whole-roster deals like these are becoming rare for this brand in our post-tariff world, with Best Buy having seen the lowest falls to $1,099 and $1,199 back at the beginning of the year in short-term sales. You’ll be getting a solid $200 off its newer going rate today, with the free extra battery bumping the total savings up to $700 – one of the best deals we’ve seen since the unfortunate economic changeup that went into effect over the summer.

There’s some additional savings available when you bundle three accessories along with your e-bike, taking 20% off their total value after doing so. You’ll find the option on any of the landing pages for the e-bikes in the accessory options box.

Aventon’s tried and true Pace 500.3 e-bikes come with either a Step-Over or Step-Through design, with both sporting 500W rear-hub motors and integrated 48V batteries. The four pedal assistance levels (eco, tour, sport, and turbo) come supported by a superior torque sensor, which is always a happy upgrade to see on affordable models, propelling you up to 28 MPH top speeds for up to 60 miles (120 miles thanks to those extra battery inclusions). This cruiser’s frame features integrated lights that even offer turn-signal functionality and an LCD smart “easy read” display that has a concealed USB port to charge your smartphone while you ride onward. That’s not all either, as it also comes stocked with hydraulic disc brakes, puncture-resistant tires, a throttle for pure electric rides, and an 8-speed Shimano derailleur.

Aventon early Black Friday deals:

Fall e-bike deals!

Black Friday e-bike

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.

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BYD sold over 500,000 vehicles for the first time in October: Is it enough to take the EV crown?

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November 1, 2024

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BYD sold over 500,000 vehicles for the first time in October: Is it enough to take the EV crown?

BYD-sales-500,000

BYD sales topped the 500,000 mark in October, its first time achieving the feat. After its fifth consecutive record sales month, will BYD take the global EV lead over Tesla this year?

BYD NEV sales top 500,000 for the first time in October

China’s largest EV maker continued its dominant run last month after selling a record 502,657 new energy vehicles (NEVs), up 20% from September.

October was BYD’s fifth straight record-breaking month for NEV sales. Many Chinese automakers report NEV sales, which include plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and all-electric (EV) models. BYD also adds commercial vehicles.

BYD sold 500,525 passenger vehicles last month, 310,912 of which were PHEVs, up 129% from last year. October was BYD’s eighth straight month with higher PHEV sales.

The other 189,614 were all-electric (EV) models, an increase of 15% from October 2023 and last month.

BYD’s Ocean (Dynasty) series accounted for 483,437 vehicles sold last month. Meanwhile, the company’s Fangcheangbao brand sold 6,026, Denza sold 10,781, and Yangwang sold 282 models.

Through October, BYD’s NEV sales reached over 3.25 million, 1.87 million of them being PHEVs. The other nearly 1.36 million were EVs, up 12% from the same period last year.

BYD-sales-500,000
BYD Dolphin (left) and Atto 3 (right) Source: BYD

Will it be enough to top Tesla in 2024?

BYD’s impressive growth is being driven by its ever-expanding lineup of vehicles. Although best known for its ultra-affordable EVs (like the $10,000 Seagull), BYD is quickly expanding into new segments like pickup trucks, luxury models, and smart electric SUVs. It’s also aggressively targeting overseas market share.

With a wave of new models hitting China’s auto market, many domestic automakers are looking overseas for growth.

BYD-sales-500,000
BYD Dolphin Mini (Seagull) launch in Brazil (Source: BYD)

BYD sold nearly 32,000 passenger cars overseas last month. With new plants opening in several key overseas regions, like Thailand, Turkey, Hungary, and Mexico, overseas sales are expected to continue rising.

Although BYD’s revenue surpassed Tesla for the first time in the third quarter, Tesla remained ahead in EV sales.

BYD-sales-500,000
BYD’s wide-reaching portfolio (Source: BYD)

BYD sold 443,426 EVs in Q3, but that was not enough to top Tesla’s 462,890 vehicles delivered last quarter.

Through the first nine months of 2024, Tesla remained ahead with 1,293,656 vehicle deliveries compared to BYD’s 1,169,579 EV sales.

With another 189,614 all-electric models sold last month, BYD’s EV sales reached 1,359,193. Tesla does not report monthly sales numbers, so we will have to wait until Q4 figures come out to determine who will be the market leader at the end of 2024.

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Tesla self-driving test driver: ‘you’re running on adrenaline the entire eight-hour shift’

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November 1, 2024

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Tesla self-driving test driver: 'you're running on adrenaline the entire eight-hour shift'

Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 10.69 barrier

A new report based on interviews with former test drivers who were part of Tesla’s internal self-driving team reveals the dangerous extremes Tesla is willing to go to test its autonomous driving technologies.

While you can make the argument that Tesla’s customers are self-driving test drivers as the automaker is deploying what it calls its “supervised self-driving” (FSD) system, the company also operates an internal fleet of testers.

We previously reported on Tesla hiring drivers all over the country to test its latest ‘FSD’ software updates.

Now, Business Insider is out with a new report after interviewing nine of those test drivers who are working on a specific project called ‘Rodeo’. They describe the project:

Test drivers said they sometimes navigated perilous scenarios, particularly those drivers on Project Rodeo’s “critical intervention” team, who say they’re trained to wait as long as possible before taking over the car’s controls. Tesla engineers say there’s a reason for this: The longer the car continues to drive itself, the more data they have to work with. Experts in self-driving tech and safety say this type of approach could speed up the software’s development but risks the safety of the test drivers and people on public roads.

One of those former test drivers described it as “a cowboy on a bull and you’re just trying to hang on as long as you can” – hence the program’s name.

Other than sometimes using a version of Tesla FSD that hasn’t been released to customers, the test drivers generally use FSD like most customers, with the main difference being that they are more frequently trying to push it to the limits.

Business Insider explains in more detail the “critical intervention team” with project Rodeo:

Critical-intervention test drivers, who are among Project Rodeo’s most experienced, let the software continue driving even after it makes a mistake. They’re trained to stage “interventions” — taking manual control of the car — only to prevent a crash, said the three critical-intervention drivers and five other drivers familiar with the team’s mission. Drivers on the team and internal documents say that cars rolled through red lights, swerved into other lanes, or failed to follow posted speed limits while FSD was engaged. The drivers said they allowed FSD to remain in control during these incidents because supervisors encouraged them to try to avoid taking over.

These are behaviors that FSD is known to do in customer vehicles, but drivers generally take over before it goes too far.

The goal of this team is to go too far.

One of the test drivers said:

“You’re pretty much running on adrenaline the entire eight-hour shift. There’s this feeling that you’re on the edge of something going seriously wrong.”

Another test driver described how Tesla FSD came within a couple of feet from hitting a cyclist:

“I vividly remember this guy jumping off his bike. He was terrified. The car lunged at him, and all I could do was stomp on the brakes.”

The team was reportedly pleased by the incident. “He told me, ‘That was perfect.’ That was exactly what they wanted me to do,” said the driver.

You can read the full Business Insider report for many more examples of the team doing very dangerous things around unsuspecting members of the public, including pedestrians and cyclists.

How does this compare to other companies developing self-driving technology?

Market leader Waymo reportedly does have a team doing similar work as Tesla’s Rodeo “critical intervention team”, but the difference is that they do the testing in closed environments with dummies.

Electrek’s Take

This appears to be a symptom of Tesla’s start-up approach of “move fast, break things”, but I don’t think it’s appropriate.

To be fair, none of the nine test drivers interviewed by BI said that they were in an accident, but they all described some very dangerous situations in which outsiders were dragged into the testing without their knowledge.

I think that’s a bad idea and ethically wrong. Elon Musk claims that Tesla is about “safety first”, but the examples in this report sound anything but safe.

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