Pakistan seeks cash bailout as its financial woes deepen after political turmoil and devastating floods
Pakistan is in talks to release of $1.1bn (£890m) of cash from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help ease its financial crisis.
Pakistan’s economic woes are a culmination of years of political turmoil, a financial crisis and last year’s catastrophic floods, with its reserves only able to cover three weeks – rather than the required three months.
Inflation is also thought to stand at around 24% to 26%, according to the country’s finance ministry, and the currency has been devalued against the dollar.
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The IMF delegation will be encouraging the Pakistani government to implement bold cost-cutting measures to help it bridge its financial gap, with mission chief Nathan Porter saying: “You don’t have any other option.”
In 2019, Pakistan secured a $6bn (£4.9bn) bailout from the IMF. It got another $1bn (£811m) last year to help overcome the devastating floods, but in November the IMF suspended payments, saying the government failed to make progress on its fiscal consolidation.
In response, Ishaq Dar, the country’s finance minister, told the IMF it had made some efforts to bring its crisis under control, including increasing taxes on petrol and natural gas, and increased prices for electricity.
If released, the cash from the IMF would go towards paying its external debt to the tune of $8bn, which has to be paid by the end of June.
Backlogs at ports, factories closed and electricity blackouts
The government has stopped issuing lines of credit, causing a backlog of container ships at the port of Karachi, while industry has been battered by the currency devaluation and imports block.
Domestic investment has dried up, with textile factories partially closing due to demand, and construction projects have been delayed due to lack of investment.
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Communities flee flooding
There has also been severe energy shortages, which has hindered remaining economic activity, while companies that generate and supply energy struggle with the high costs of fuel and turn off the electricity grid to save money.
Last week the country of 243 million people was plunged into darkness after a major breakdown of the national grid, which lasted several hours – the impact was felt on schools, hospitals, businesses and industry further hindering economic activity.
The country’s economy has been faltering for many years, with the floods in 2022 pushing it over the edge.
Pakistan’s floods impacted a third of the country and wiped out millions of hectares of crops. Almost 2,000 people were killed, and around 33 million people were displaced, with damage thought to cost around $40bn (£32.4bn).
Successive governments have been accused of making little effort to widening the tax net and increasing sources of revenue, while loans from allies such as China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates kept its economy afloat.
Fuel taxes have been increased. File pic: Reuters
Some blame former PM Imran Khan
Former prime minister Imran Khan, and his government, have been accused of contributing to the immediate crisis. A year into his premiership, the fiscal deficit shot to a record high of $25.3bn (£20.5bn) and by the time he was ousted early last year, inflation was over 12%.
Mr Khan delayed approaching the IMF, despite economists recommending it, saying he wants to shun the practice of approaching foreign entities with a “begging bowl”.
However, his government was unable to bear the costs of a slew of welfare schemes it rolled out – though it helped his popularity.
His government’s reluctance to increase fuel costs, even in early 2022 when international crude rates had breached the $100 mark due to the war in Ukraine war, meant the state exchequer lost precious dollars.
Is Pakistan going the same way as Sri Lanka?
There is comparison of what is taking place in Pakistan with the collapse of the Sri Lankan economy last year.
But this is unlikely, as almost half of Sri Lanka’s external debt was owed to private creditors while for Pakistan, this is only about 8% of what it owes.
Pakistan’s large bilateral loan payments are to friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and China, which will be rolled over.
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With the present government starting to implement changes that would satisfy the IMF and a release of the $1.1bn tranche, this will pave the way for the release of the loan and other bilateral assistances.
But more importantly, Pakistan is a nuclear nation and a geostrategic country, and its allies, and the world, would prevent its economy from collapsing.
World
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The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.
The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.
Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.
It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.
But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.
Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.
“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”
The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.
The talks were rocked from the start by the incoming presidency of climate denier Mr Trump, the moment Argentina’s team were recalled back to Buenos Aires by their right-wing president and a controversial letter that sent shockwaves through the United Nations.
Pic: AP
The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.
A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.
Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.
They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.
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Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks
The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.
A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.
A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.
Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.
Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.
‘Not everything we wanted’
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The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.
“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.
“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.
“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”
Protesters at the summit in Baku. Pic: AP
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The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.
“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”
At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.
Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.
The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.
The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut
The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.
At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.
A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.
The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.
Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.
The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.
Pic: AP
Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.
Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.
According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.
It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.
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‘Dozens’ of Palestinians killed in Israeli airstrike
Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.
Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.
The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.
US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.
Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.
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