Europe is set to ramp up its oil war against Russia — and markets are bracing for more disruption
The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5.
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Europe is once again poised to ratchet up the pressure on Russia’s oil revenues, seeking to deplete President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest as the Kremlin’s nearly year-long onslaught in Ukraine drags on.
But some energy analysts are worried that the proposed measures could cause “significant market dislocations.”
The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5. The embargo will take effect exactly two months after the West took by far the most significant step to curtail fossil fuel export revenue funding Russia’s war.
The Group of Seven implemented a $60 price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. That came alongside the EU’s import ban on Russian seaborne crude, as well as the corresponding bans of other G-7 partners.
It is thought that the EU’s forthcoming embargo on Russian petroleum products will be both more complex and more disruptive than what has come before.
As part of the European Union’s sixth package of sanctions against Russia, adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia.
The restrictions on Russian crude oil took effect on Dec. 5, while the measures targeting Moscow’s refined petroleum products will apply from Feb. 5.
Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group warned the EU’s imminent ban “will probably have a more disruptive effect than previous EU crude-import sanctions.”
Concerns about further supply disruptions come amid talks regarding further oil price caps. The EU and its G-7 allies are reportedly considering a $100 per barrel price cap on premium Russian oil products like diesel and a $45 cap on discounted products like fuel oil and industrial lubricant oil.
The thresholds, first reported by Bloomberg last week, are also expected to take effect on Feb. 5, although the figures may change during talks between member states and the bloc’s allies.
A spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said discussions between member states were ongoing but declined to provide any further details.
“If it is introduced, it would be last minute, potentially creating more confusion in the market,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.
China and India
“We expect some disruption, especially in the immediate aftermath of the ban as EU markets continue to line up alternative supplies,” Matthew Sherwood, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC via email. “We also expect this to put upward pressure on prices for oil products more generally.”
Sherwood said the team at EIU anticipates some rerouting of flows, with Moscow sending more barrels to China, India, the Middle East and Africa, and Europe ramping up imports from India, China, the Middle East and the U.S.
This, he added, would likely increase transport costs.
Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.
Presidential Press Office | Sputnik | Reuters
Energy analysts had been skeptical about the impact of the G-7 price cap on Russian oil, particularly as Moscow had been able to reroute much of its European seaborne shipments to the likes of China, India and Turkey.
The EU urged India and China to support a price cap on Russian oil. Nonetheless, India’s oil imports were reported to have jumped to a five-month record in December as the country actively ramped up its purchases of Russian crude, while China was seen as the second largest buyer of Urals in January.
“The impact of sanctions on Russian crude exports after two months of the European Union embargo has not been as devastating as some predicted,” Stephen Brennock, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said in a research note.
His comments come shortly after Reuters reported that oil loadings from Russia’s Baltic ports were poised to jump by 50% in January from December. “Not bad for the world’s most sanctioned country,” Brennock said.
“The same fate may however not await its refined oil products,” he added. “China and India have been a lifeline for Russian crude exports given their large refining capacities. Yet this also means that they will continue to take cheap imported crude oil and process it domestically rather than buying refined oil.”
Shipping and pricing issues are key concerns when it comes to the EU’s ban on Russian oil product exports. Indeed, it is when these challenges are factored in that analysts at Eurasia Group believe the product ban could have an even bigger impact on markets than its predecessor crude embargo.
The seaborne transport of Russian oil products is thought to be more difficult because tankers must be deep cleaned when switching from carrying one fuel to another, such as from gasoline to lubricants. It also requires more vessels than the crude sector since fuel tankers are smaller than crude carriers.
“This will create logistical challenges and higher transport costs if Russia seeks to redirect product flows to Asia, as it has done with crude oil,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.
‘A shortfall seems likely’
Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously said a Western price cap on Russian oil would not affect its ability to sustain what it describes as its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
“Once the EU embargo on Russian seaborne fuel exports kicks in, we are likely to see prices for gasoline and especially diesel remain supported by tightening supply – not least if the embargo is being followed up by a $100 per barrel price cap on diesel,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a research note.
Hansen said on Jan. 27 that this proposed level was some $30 below current market levels.
“Russia may, however, struggle to offload its diesel to other buyers, with key customers in Asia being more interested in feeding their refineries with heavily discounted Russian crude, which can then be turned into fuel products selling at the prevailing global market price,” he added.
Hansen said the supply of diesel to Europe from the U.S. and the Middle East could make up some of the missing barrels from Russia, “but a shortfall seems likely.”
Environment
Another big car brand is testing solid-state EV batteries, just not in the way you’d expect
One more major player in the auto industry is now testing the “holy grail” of electric vehicle batteries. Solid-state EV batteries promise longer driving ranges, faster charging, and significantly higher energy density. However, this carmaker is using them in a unique way.
Subaru begins testing all-solid-state EV batteries
Subaru isn’t the first car brand that comes to mind when considering electric vehicles. Like other Japanese automakers, including Toyota, Subaru has been one of the biggest laggards in the shift to EVs.
However, Subaru, like many automakers, sees solid-state batteries as a way of unlocking the full potential of battery electric vehicles.
The Japanese automaker began testing all-solid-state batteries at its Oizumi plant in Japan, but not in the way you would think.
Subaru is using all-solid-state batteries to power robots at the facility, which are used to automate the production process. Typically, batteries in industrial equipment only last one to two years. The all-solid-state batteries will last over 10 years without replacement, Subaru said.
By the end of the month, Subaru will begin testing solid-state batteries in vehicles. However, the battery packs used for its robots are way too small to power an EV.
Maxwell Ltd. manufactures the ceramic-packaged all-solid-state battery packs, which are typically used in industrial equipment.
By the end of the decade, Maxwell aims to offer solid-state batteries for other applications, including “automotive devices.” The Japanese electronics firm sees a possibility that its tech could end up in vehicles, but not anytime soon. For the time being, it will focus on smaller battery packs.
A spokesperson from Subaru told Automotive News that the company is still exploring future battery chemistries and has yet to decide on solid-state batteries for EVs.
Although a solid-state battery-powered EV from Subaru is not expected anytime soon, it is launching several new all-electric vehicles, including the updated Solterra and Trailseeker SUVs. Subaru, like a handful of other brands, is reconsidering its EV strategy in the US due to the changes under the Trump administration, including the removal of the federal tax credit.
The news follows Nissan’s announcement this week of a partnership with US-based LiCAP Technologies to develop a dry electrode production process for mass-producing all-solid-state EV batteries.
Electrek’s Take
Many major car brands are pursuing the “holy grail” of EV batteries, including Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Stellantis, to name a few. Global battery leaders, CATL and BYD, expect to launch their first EVs powered by solid-state batteries around 2027. Others are aiming for the end of the decade.
In February, Mercedes claimed to have put “the first car powered by a lithium-metal solid-state battery on the road” using a modified EQS prototype. BMW announced a similar feat a few months later in May.
Meanwhile, SAIC MG is preparing to launch the first EV with a semi-solid-state battery, the new MG4, which will be sold globally. The company will reveal prices in September, with deliveries set to begin before the end of 2025.
And these are just the auto brands. Several other startups and tech companies are also looking to unlock new battery technology.
Which company will be the first to launch the new battery tech on a mass scale? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
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Police in the UK have confiscated what they say is the fastest electric bicycle they’ve ever seen, suggesting it was capable of reaching speeds of 83.2 MPH.
It was reportedly one of more than 100 illegally-modified electric two-wheelers seized by police in Sunderland so far this year.
The Northumbria Police shared several images of the bike, revealing a DIY build using a high-power direct drive rear hub motor, a triangle bag-mounted softshell battery, and a large speed controller slung under the down tube. The bike itself appears to be a fairly standard mountain bike converted into an e-bike.
E-bikes in the UK are permitted to reach electrically assisted speeds of just 15.5 mph (25 km/h) and do so on pedal-assist only. The bike in question was apparently capable of significantly exceeding that legal limit.
Police shared an image of the bike’s LCD panel showing a max speed of 83.2 mph (134 km/h), though this is almost certainly the “no-load” speed reached from lifting the rear wheel and allowing it to spin up freely without resistance. Police say that they stopped and confiscated the bike when its rider was seen traveling at 35 mph (56 km/h). They were alerted to it “following reports it was travelling in front of a car.”
Due to the nature of roads in the UK, e-bikes that ride on them are generally in front of or behind cars, and occasionally next to them.
Electrek’s Take
This is pretty dumb for a number of reasons. First of all, those bikes and components aren’t meant to handle these kinds of stresses. Any number of parts could fail catastrophically. The tires can fail early, the freewheel can lock up and cause the crank to whip around while sending several fragments of your fibula to places they shouldn’t be, the suspension fork can shear from hitting a bump at such speeds, the dropouts can literally tear out and send your rear wheel in a different direction at speed… the possibilities are endless. And that’s just the risk to the rider, not even yet getting to the risk they cause to others, depending on how and where they ride.
Then there are the legal issues, and the fact that these knuckleheads are going to ruin it for everyone by bringing a bad name to actually legal e-bikes. Most of the “illegally fast e-bikes” are clearly not bicycles (we’re talking Sur-Ron dirt bikes and similar), but this one is actually built on a bicycle frame and thus further confuses the public and law enforcement regarding legal and safe e-bikes.
If you want to go 35 mph, just get a scooter. There are plenty of good options.
via: BBC
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Tern has just unveiled a new pair of electric bikes in collaboration with Airstream, and they might be the most “on-brand” accessories an RV owner could dream of.
The two-bike collection includes special edition versions of Tern’s Vektron S10 and HSD P5I e-bikes. Those two models are already well-loved e-bikes in the urban mobility world, known for their bulletproof designs and rugged everyday rider build quality. But now they come wrapped in Airstream’s signature polished aluminum aesthetic and are purpose-built for life on the road… or more accurately, life off the road.
The new Vektron S10 Airstream by Tern is a premium folding electric bike that combines compact stowability with full-size performance. It folds down in seconds and tucks neatly into an Airstream trailer or tow vehicle.
And it’s not just a pretty new face, either. This is still a Bosch-powered, cargo-capable workhorse that can haul groceries or even a kiddo on the rear rack.
The second model, the HSD P5I Airstream by Tern, is a compact electric cargo bike that’s essentially a small pickup truck disguised as a bike. You get serious utility in a short, nimble package. It’s ideal for campsite errands, runs into town, or cruising around a rally site.
Both models use Bosch’s Performance line drive system with pedal assist up to 20 mph (32 km/h), and they tap into Tern’s impressively deep accessory ecosystem so you can spec them out with front racks, passenger seats, panniers, and more. The Vektron S10 Airstream is priced at $3,699, while the HSD P5I Airstream rolls out at $5,099.
According to Steve Boyd, Tern’s GM for North America, “folding e-bikes and compact e-cargo bikes make the perfect addition to the RV lifestyle.” And frankly, it’s hard to disagree. When you’re parked for the night, your trailer isn’t going anywhere, but your e-bike sure can. Whether you’re headed to the nearest trailhead, grocery store, or lakeside picnic spot, these e-bikes let you leave the truck behind and ride in style.
I’m always hearing from RV owners about how an e-bike – or usually a pair of them – completely changed the game for them by giving them easy mobility beyond where they can reach with their rig.
Airstream’s CMO Mollie Hansen says the company wanted to give owners a better way to explore and make memories, and this partnership with Tern fits right into that mission. The idea is to extend the sense of freedom you get from your trailer onto two wheels, and maybe even spark a little envy from the folks camped next to you.
The design of the bikes was led by The Show Design Co., and the team had plenty of direct contact with real Airstream owners during testing, including a visit to the Airstream International Rally in Sedalia, Missouri. According to company president Mike Milo, the bikes proved to be a hit. And now they’re heading to their official debut at this year’s Airstream Club International Rally in York, Pennsylvania (August 23–28), where owners will get free demos.
Electrek’s Take
This collaboration makes a lot of sense to me, and it’s almost surprising it didn’t happen sooner. Airstream and Tern are both brands with serious design chops and practical roots. Folding e-bikes and cargo e-bikes already dominate the RV world because of how easy they are to transport and how useful they are once you’re parked. Add in some Airstream polish and now you’ve got the official e-bike of campfire coffee runs and last-minute beer missions.
Of course, these aren’t budget bikes by any means, but they’re built to last. When someone tells me they want a bike that is built to haul and they don’t mind paying a bit extra for something higher quality, I always tell them to go to Tern. These bikes are just built to a higher standard, literally. I say that if you want a bike that looks like it’s built tough, get one of those ridiculous Hummer fat tire e-bikes. If you want something that’s actually built tough, you get a Tern.
Now, if they could just also build one that looks like a mini aluminum trailer for e-bikes, we’d really be in business. They’re close… Tern already has a bicycle tow kit!
Ok… now, after spending time making AI generate that image, I really want to build that thing!
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