What we learned about the US economy this past week

Published

3 years ago

February 4, 2023

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A recent wave of surprisingly solid economic data reveals that the U.S. economy is in a far stronger position than most economists expected.

Friday’s stunning jobs report, coupled with a surprising jump in job openings, has forced experts to recalibrate their expectations for an economy being slowed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.

Here’s what we learned about the U.S. economy over the past week: Companies are still eager to hire A hiring sign is displayed in a window of a store in Manhattan on December 02, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The U.S. added 517,000 jobs in January, blowing away analyst projections, while the unemployment rate dipped to 3.4 percent, the lowest in 54 years. Economists had expected unemployment to rise.

Several sectors that had been seeing an apparent slowdown, including retail and construction, added jobs at a faster rate than last year’s monthly average. The average workweek totaled 34.7 hours, the highest since March 2022, indicating massive demand for workers.

That means the nation clearly isn’t in a recession, despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to weaken the labor market by hiking employers’ borrowing costs.

“For now, it’s a good sign that the Fed hasn’t broken the economy yet. The best-case scenario is a soft landing, and it’s still in play,” Callie Cox, U.S. Investment Analyst at eToro, said in a note.

In another surprising figure, Labor Department data released Wednesday showed that the U.S. had a near-record 11 million job openings at the end of December, up from 10.4 million the month prior. Economists expected openings to fall on a month-to-month basis.

The shortfall of workers, driven in part by 2 million early retirements during the pandemic, boosts workers’ leverage over wages but also reduces the supply of certain goods and services, leading to higher prices.

Lisa Lighter, 52, told The Hill she struggles to find workers for her small business, A Day In Our Shoes, which helps Philadelphia-area parents secure critical services for their disabled children. The labor shortage forces countless parents with a disabled child who go without those services, Lighter said.

“I work long hours myself because finding qualified help to do my administrative work is challenging. Many never even return emails, and I pay above market rate,” she said.

Friday’s booming jobs report comes with caveats. Economists expect the jobs number to be revised down because companies added fewer holiday employees this year and the U.S. experienced an unusually warm January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually accounts for a rush of post-holiday layoffs and lower economic activity during a cold but uneventful month by adjusting January jobs gains higher.

“The BLS jobs report for January was VERY strong. So strong, I don’t believe it. The BLS is likely having measurement issues. Most likely, difficulty seasonally adjusting the data, which is especially important in January,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi wrote on Twitter Friday. Layoffs are lower than the headlines make it seem A sign is shown on a Google building at their campus in Mountain View, Calif., on Sept. 24, 2019. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)

Some of the nation’s largest and most well-known companies, including Google, Microsoft and FedEx, announced mass layoffs in January, fueling recession fears.

But the data shows that most companies aren’t letting workers go.

The number of Americans filing unemployment claims dropped to a nine-month low last week, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That’s an indicator that the economy is still growing amid the highly publicized job reductions.

The persistent shortfall of workers means that those who are laid off can typically find employment elsewhere, and quickly.

A survey from tech recruiting and staffing firm Andiamo found that 74 percent of tech workers who were laid off between September and November have already landed new jobs. Thirty percent of those fired workers jumped over to new industries such as finance and media.

“Despite the large layoffs and firings in the tech sector over the past year, the data strongly implies that these workers with in-demand skills are quickly finding employment,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at auditing firm RSM, said in a note. Fed rate hikes are making a serious dent on inflation A customer looks at refrigerated items at a Grocery Outlet store in Pleasanton, Calif.,. on Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell can finally exhale.

After six straight months of declines in both the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the two primary ways of tracking inflation — Fed officials are willing to acknowledge that their rate hikes are working.

“We actually see disinflation in the goods sector,” Powell said Wednesday, after the Fed issued its smallest interest rate hike since March 2021.

“We note that when we say inflation is coming down that this is good,” he continued.

Powell’s remarks may seem like little more than a basic observation. But his willingness to acknowledge progress against inflation — however slight — is a sign that the Fed feels increasingly confident in its fight to bring down price growth.

The Fed has been reluctant to declare victory with the PCE price index still up 5 percent on the year in December, well above the Fed’s annual inflation target of 2 percent but down from a peak of 7 percent in June. Pence: ‘We’ve got to have a conversation’ about reforming Social Security What are spy balloons and what is their purpose?

Powell added that while prices for goods have fallen steadily, prices for basic services are still rising and may continue to do so as long as the labor market holds strong.

The staggering January gain of 517,000 jobs might be a cause for concern for the Fed, even though wage growth continued to slow down. While Fed officials are optimistic they can quash inflation without derailing the job market, they could face pressure to keep cranking up rates.

“If the central bank thinks that the low unemployment rate will necessarily push up wage growth and inflation moving forward, this strong report may darken the economic outlook. But if instead, Chair Powell and colleagues are heartened by tempering wage growth, then the odds that the economy can avoid a recession increase,” wrote Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, in a Friday analysis.

Sports

Secretariat Triple Crown jockey Turcotte, 84, dies

Published

2 hours ago

August 22, 2025

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Secretariat Triple Crown jockey Turcotte, 84, dies

Associated Press

Aug 22, 2025, 04:10 PM ET

DRUMMOND, New Brunswick — Hall of Fame jockey Ron Turcotte, who rode Secretariat to the Triple Crown in 1973, has died. He was 84.

Turcotte’s family said through his longtime business partner and friend Leonard Lusky that the Canada-born jockey died of natural causes at his home in Drummond, New Brunswick, on Friday.

Turcotte won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes twice each from 1965-73 before his riding career ended when he fell off a horse and suffered injuries that caused paraplegia. Secretariat’s record time in the Belmont still stands 52 years later.

World

Famine declared in Gaza City – and projected to expand to two other areas in the next month

Published

2 hours ago

August 22, 2025

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Famine declared in Gaza City - and projected to expand to two other areas in the next month

A famine has been declared in Gaza City and the surrounding neighbourhoods.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) – a globally recognised system for classifying the severity of food insecurity and malnutrition – has confirmed just four famines since it was established in 2004.

These were in Somalia in 2011, and in Sudan in 2017, 2020, and 2024.

The confirmation of famine in Gaza City is the IPC’s first outside of Africa.

“After 22 months of relentless conflict, over half a million people in the Gaza Strip are facing catastrophic conditions characterised by starvation, destitution and death,” the report said, adding that more than a million other people face a severe level of food insecurity.

Over the next month conditions are also expected to worsen, with the famine projected to expand to Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, the report said.

Nearly a third of the population (641,000 people) are expected to face catastrophic conditions while acute malnutrition is projected to continue getting worse rapidly.

Over the next year, the report said at least 132,000 children will suffer from acute malnutrition – double the organisation’s estimates from May 2024.

Israel says no famine in Gaza

Volker Turk, the UN Human Rights chief, said the famine is the direct result of actions taken by the Israeli government.

“It is a war crime to use starvation as method of warfare, and the resulting deaths may also amount to the war crime of wilful killing,” he said.

COGAT, the Israeli military agency that coordinates aid, has rejected the findings.

Israel accused of allowing famine to fester in Gaza

Tom Fletcher, speaking on behalf of the United Nations, did not mince his words.

Gaza was suffering from famine, the evidence was irrefutable and Israel had not just obstructed aid but had also used hunger as a weapon of war.

His anger seeped through every sentence, just as desperation is laced through the report from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).

Conditions are expected to worsen, it says, even though the Gaza Strip has been classified as a level 5 famine. There is no level 6.

But it took only moments for the Israeli government to respond in terms that were just as strident.

Read Adam Parsons’ analysis here.

Israel’s foreign ministry said there is no famine in Gaza: “Over 100,000 trucks of aid have entered Gaza since the start of the war, and in recent weeks a massive influx of aid has flooded the Strip with staple foods and caused a sharp decline in food prices, which have plummeted in the markets.”

Another UN chief made a desperate plea to Israel’s prime minister to declare a ceasefire in the wake of the famine announcement.

Tom Fletcher, UN under-secretary general for humanitarian affairs, said famine could have been prevented in the strip if there hadn’t been a “systematic obstruction” of aid deliveries.

“My ask, my plea, my demand to Prime Minister Netanyahu and anyone who can reach him. Enough. Ceasefire. Open the crossings, north and south, all of them,” he said.

The IPC had previously warned famine was imminent in parts of Gaza, but had stopped short of a formal declaration.

The latest report on Gaza from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) says there were almost 13,000 new admissions of children for acute malnutrition recorded in July.

The latest numbers from the Gaza health ministry are 251 dead as a result of famine and malnutrition, including 108 children.

But Israel has previously accused Hamas of inflating these figures, saying that most of the children who died had pre-existing health conditions.

World

Suspect arrested over Nord Stream attacks served in Ukraine’s army, Sky News understands

Published

2 hours ago

August 22, 2025

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Suspect arrested over Nord Stream attacks served in Ukraine's army, Sky News understands

The Ukrainian suspected of coordinating attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines had served in Ukraine’s Secret Service and in the Ukrainian Army’s special forces, Sky News understand.

Serhii K., 49, was arrested in northern Italy on Thursday following the issuance of a European arrest warrant by German prosecutors.

It is not known whether he was still serving at the time of the pipeline attack in 2022 and Ukraine’s government has always denied any involvement in the explosions.

According to sources close to the case, the suspect has been found in a three-star bungalow hotel named La Pescaccia in San Clemente, in the province of Rimini.

When military officers from Italy’s Carabinieri investigative and operational units raided his bedroom, he didn’t try to resist the arrest.

The hotel’s employees have been questioned, but no further evidence or any weapons were found, the sources added.

Serhii arrived on Italy’s Adriatic coast earlier this week, and the purpose of his trip was a holiday. He was found with his two children and his wife.

At least one of the four people within his family had a travel ticket issued in Poland. He crossed the Italian border with his car with a Ukrainian license plate last Tuesday.

He was travelling with his passport, and he used his real identity to check into the hotel, triggering an emergency alert on a police server, we have been told.

After the arrest, he was taken to the Rimini police station before being moved to a prison in Bologna, the regional capital, on Friday.

Deputy Bologna Prosecutor Licia Scagliarini has granted the German judicial authorities’ requests for Serhii’s surrender, but Sky News understands the man told the appeal court that he doesn’t consent to being handed over to Germany.

He also denied the charges and said he was in Ukraine during the Nord Stream sabotage. He added that he is currently in Italy for family reasons.

While leaving the court, he was seen making a typical Ukrainian nationalist ‘trident’ gesture to the reporters.

The next hearing is scheduled for 3 September, when the Bologna appeal court is set to decide whether Serhii will be extradited to Germany or not. He will remain in jail until then.

In Germany, he will face charges of collusion to cause an explosion, anti-constitutional sabotage and the destruction of structures.

German prosecutors believe he was part of a group of people who planted devices on the pipelines near the Danish island of Bornholm in September 2022.

Serhii and his accomplices are believed to have set off from Rostock on Germany’s north-eastern coast in a sailing yacht to carry out the attack.

The explosions severely damaged three pipelines transporting gas from Russia to Europe. It represented a significant escalation in the Ukraine conflict and worsening of the continent’s energy supply crisis.

According to a US intelligence report leaked in 2023, a pro-Ukraine group was behind the attack. Yet, no group has ever claimed responsibility.

Sky News understands Genoa’s Prosecutor’s Office in northern Italy has requested their colleagues in Bologna to share the information related to Serhii.

Anti-terrorism prosecutors are investigating another alleged sabotage linked to the Russian shadow fleet oil tanker Seajewel, which sank off the port of Savona last February.

On Thursday, they asked an investigative police unit to figure out whether there is a link between that episode and the Nord Stream attacks.