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The Treasury has signalled there is no new money for defence despite recognising the urgent need to rearm in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine, defence sources have said.

At the same time, the sources said a “refresh” of UK defence policy – that was meant to inform the spending plans of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak – could be delayed until after the March budget because an initial draft failed to reflect sufficiently the transformed security environment in Europe, where a land war is raging.

“It is not very joined up government,” according to one source, who was speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

The comments came after Sky News last week revealed that a senior US general had told Defence Secretary Ben Wallace that the British Army is no longer regarded as a top level, or “tier one”, fighting force following decades of cuts to its size and strength.

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Govt admits army underfunding

Now, defence sources are warning that Britain will be unable “credibly” to offer as many troops as NATO allies would expect to a major new force structure that is being drawn up by the alliance to bolster its defences in response to the war in Ukraine.

This would only change if Mr Sunak accelerated plans to fix the army’s decline, they said.

A senior European diplomatic source confirmed that the UK “is under-delivering”.

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Lord George Robertson, the last British secretary general of NATO, said he was concerned that the government did not fully appreciate the threat posed by Moscow and urged Mr Sunak to act as a “wartime prime minister”.

“The prime minister needs to wake up to the fact that Vladimir Putin has declared war on the West and we are the second military power in the West and we’ve got to live up now to the challenge that he [Mr Sunak] faces,” Lord Robertson told Sky News in an interview.

“That means by taking defence and security more seriously than it appears at the present moment and investing in the right kind of equipment, the right kind of capabilities in order to keep the country safe.”

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British Army is still ‘formidable’

‘Treasury playing hard ball’

Defence sources had already urged the government to increase the defence budget by at least £3bn a year; halt a plan to shrink the size of the army even further; and ease peacetime procurement rules that obstruct the UK’s ability to buy weapons at speed.

But the same sources this weekend said Mr Hunt and the Treasury were “playing a dead bat”.

“We know that at the moment the Treasury and the chancellor are playing hard ball,” one source said.

“They recognise the threats. They recognise the pressure defence is under from inflation, the nuclear deterrent, stockpiles and Ukraine. But despite recognising the threats and the pressure, they say there is no more money.”

The source was referring to how inflation is eroding the value in real terms of an extra £16bn that the Treasury, then led by Mr Sunak, committed to the Ministry of Defence in 2020 across four years in the biggest boost to defence spending since the Cold War.

There is also concern within the Ministry of Defence about how any expanding costs from a multi-billion-pound programme to build a new fleet of nuclear-armed submarines could eat into the conventional capabilities of the Royal Navy, army and Royal Air Force.

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British Army has ‘fallen behind’

As things stand, the army would already run out of ammunition within a few days if called upon to fight and would take up to 10 years to field a modern warfighting division of some 25,000 to 30,000 troops.

Mr Sunak inherited from Liz Truss what is being described as a “refresh” of a 2021 review of UK defence and security policy.

The previous prime minister initiated the work last year because the Integrated Review had been written before Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine and because of growing concerns about the security threat posed by China.

But Ms Truss, unlike Mr Sunak, had also pledged to boost UK defence spending to 3% of GDP from 2%, the NATO minimum, by 2030.

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Tank deliveries to Ukraine ‘going to plan’

Despite the dramatic change in European security following Mr Putin’s onslaught against Ukraine, an initial draft of Mr Sunak’s “refresh” apparently reinforced the decisions of the original review rather than drawing new conclusions, according to two sources.

This included prioritising major investments in high-end capabilities for the navy, such as the submarine fleet, and the development of a future combat aircraft – in line with what the original document described as an “Indo-Pacific tilt”.

While this all remained relevant, the sources said that the refresh failed to accelerate the need to tackle the more immediate, basic gaps faced by the army, such as a lack of artillery, air defence systems, long-range missiles and stockpiles of ammunition.

It is “complete madness and shows the ineptitude of some of the senior leaders to admit they are human”, a second source said.

The army’s holes have been exacerbated because Mr Sunak is giving much of its remaining warfighting capabilities, including tanks and artillery guns, to the Ukrainian military to help in their offensive operations against Russia.

Sources said the war in Ukraine underlined the importance of these weapons and sufficient supplies and spare parts to sustain an operation.

“It is no good having a small number of high-end, exquisite platforms when you have not got capacity around it,” the first defence source said.

“We had assumed that modern wars can be over in a matter of weeks and we have stocked ourselves for that. Whereas the Ukraine war is teaching us that even for a strong military like Russia’s, it will grind on for months and probably years.”

Referring to the UK supplying weapons to the Ukrainian military, the source added that there was nothing in the refresh about the “immediate pressures”.

“If you do not replace what you’re giving away, then the army cannot fight. Arguably it cannot fight now even at a very small scale – at least not for more than a few days.”

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‘Bareness of UK defence cupboards’

The refresh had been due to be published on 7 March, ahead of the spring budget on 15 March. But the source said: “There is a suspicion that it will get pulled or delayed.”

The bareness of UK defence cupboards could become more apparent to NATO allies at a summit of leaders in Lithuania this summer.

A key focus will be on a new force model, which aims to have more than 300,000 military personnel across the alliance on a much higher state of readiness as part of a major reshaping of NATO’s ability to defend itself and deter threats in the wake of Russia’s war.

But Mr Sunak will only be able “credibly” to offer a brigade – between 5,000 and 10,000 soldiers backed by weapons, armoured vehicles and helicopters – when expectations from a leading ally like the UK will be for a division of up to 30,000 soldiers or even more, defence sources said.

Army due to shrink to 73,000 full-time troops

Even a brigade would lack sufficient working equipment and have nothing like enough ammunition stocks or medical support, they noted.

“Other nations will be offering divisions or corps,” one source said.

“They can say that with confidence because they have now made the investment. For the UK, not only have we not made those investments – and there is no sign the chancellor will – but we are actually cutting the army.”

Under current plans, the army is due to shrink to 73,000 full-time troops from 82,000. It is currently at below 76,000.

Mr Sunak did not make rebuilding his armed forces – in particular the army – one of his top five priorities despite the war in Ukraine and the leading role he says he wants Britain to continue to play in supporting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The prime minister became the first leader to offer western tanks to Kyiv – promising 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks. He also pledged the army’s remaining stocks of artillery, some 30 AS90 guns, to help the Ukrainian military prepare for new offensives.

But this further erodes Britain’s own defences and its ability to meet its NATO commitments. It will also limit any desire by Mr Sunak to keep helping Ukraine with the weapons it most needs.

“We have played a good role in the political mobilisation” of nations in support of Ukraine, said Professor Michael Clarke, a defence and security expert.

“We have led in a lot of ways when Ukraine was on the defensive… Now Ukraine is on the offensive we have not got much to offer because we do not have it ourselves.”

‘We have to do everything necessary to protect our people’ – government

Commenting on the claims about no new money for defence and a possible delay in the publication of the refresh of the review, a UK government spokesman said: “We do not comment on speculation outside of fiscal events.

“The prime minister is clear that we have to do everything necessary to protect our people, which is why we are ensuring our armed forces have the equipment and capability they need to meet the threats of tomorrow, including through a fully-funded £242bn 10-year equipment plan.

“That equipment plan and the £24bn, four-year spending review settlement agreed in 2020, gave the Ministry of Defence long term certainty and opportunity to plan for all eventualities.

“Despite the economic landscape changing in recent months, the prime minister has stood by that settlement, ensuring our armed forces remain among the best in the world.

“The publication of the Integrated Review Refresh was commissioned to ensure the UK’s diplomatic, military and security architecture is keeping pace with evolving threats posed by hostile nations. That work is ongoing.”

A separate defence source said: “The defence secretary has made clear for years now, about the need to modernise our army to ensure it keeps pace with our allies.

“That’s why at the spending review in 2020 he achieved an extra £16bn… Reinvesting, learning lessons from Ukraine and growing industrial skills takes time.

“We are on track to start to see new tanks, personnel carriers and air defence systems by the year after next.”

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Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE – as Israeli PM says he was murdered in ‘antisemitic terror incident’

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Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE - as Israeli PM says he was murdered in 'antisemitic terror incident'

The body of an Israeli-Moldovan rabbi who went missing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been found, Israel has said.

Zvi Kogan, the Chabad representative in the UAE, went missing on Thursday.

A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office on Sunday said the 28-year-old rabbi was murdered, calling it a “heinous antisemitic terror incident”.

“The state of Israel will act with all means to seek justice with the criminals responsible for his death,” it said.

On Saturday, Israeli intelligence agency Mossad said it was investigating the disappearance as suspicions arose that he had been kidnapped.

The Emirati government gave no immediate acknowledgment that Mr Kogan had been found dead. Its interior ministry has described the rabbi as being “missing and out of contact”.

“Specialised authorities immediately began search and investigation operations upon receiving the report,” the interior ministry said.

Mr Kogan lived in the UAE with his wife Rivky, who is a US citizen. He ran a Kosher grocery store in Dubai, which has been the target of online protests by pro-Palestinian supporters.

The Chabad Lubavitch movement, a prominent and highly observant branch of Orthodox Judaism, said Mr Kogan was last seen in Dubai.

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Israeli authorities reissued their recommendation against all non-essential travel to the UAE and said visitors currently there should minimise movement and remain in secure areas.

The rabbi’s disappearance comes as Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel after the two countries traded fire in October.

While the Israeli statement on Mr Kogan did not mention Iran, Iranian intelligence services have previously carried out kidnappings in the UAE.

The UAE diplomatically recognised Israel in 2020. Since then, synagogues and businesses catering to kosher diners have been set up for the burgeoning Jewish community but the unrest in the Middle East has sparked deep anger in the country.

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COP29 strikes last ditch deal on funding for climate measures in vulnerable countries

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COP29 strikes last ditch deal on funding for climate measures in vulnerable countries

The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.

The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.

Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.

It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.

But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.

Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.

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“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”

The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.

The talks were rocked from the start by the incoming presidency of climate denier Mr Trump, the moment Argentina’s team were recalled back to Buenos Aires by their right-wing president and a controversial letter that sent shockwaves through the United Nations.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.

A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.

Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.

They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.

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Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks

The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.

A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.

A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.

Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.

Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.

‘Not everything we wanted’

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The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.

“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.

“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.

“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate finance at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Friday, Nov. 22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)
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Protesters at the summit in Baku. Pic: AP

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The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.

“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”

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At least 20 killed in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities say

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At least 20 killed in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities say

At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.

Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.

The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.

The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut, where four people were killed in an Israeli airstrike
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The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut

Map of Lebanon and Israel

The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.

At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.

A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.

The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.

Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.

The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.

Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.

According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.

It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.

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‘Dozens’ of Palestinians killed in Israeli airstrike

Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.

Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.

The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.

The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.

US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.

Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.

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