US economy could see ‘second chapter’ in pandemic price surge

Published

2 years ago

February 6, 2023

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close video Fed’s Powell didn’t clearly articulate core inflation hasn’t budged: Swonk

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk and Fitz-Gerald Group principal Keith Fitz-Gerald discuss how investors should interpret the Fed’s latest rate hike on “The Claman Countdown.”

The new year brought with it hope that a long, painful season of high inflation was finally coming to a close – but the U.S. economy may not be out of the woods yet.

In a note to clients last week, Ben Emons of the Connecticut-based NewEdge Wealth warned that "there are signs of a second chapter in the pandemic price surge," citing higher than expected inflation readings across the globe. The signs include an unexpected jump in the Spanish inflation rate after a five-month period of slowing price growth, on top of increases in the consumer price gauges in Australia, Japan and Italy.

In making his case, Emons – a senior portfolio manager – cited Fed research published in January that suggests inflation has become more synchronized globally and is driven by many of the same factors, including housing, energy and transportation. The study indicates that if inflation spikes in several developed nations, it is likely to rise in the U.S. as well.

"These are all forces in the works here," he told FOX Business. "Inflation has not gone to sleep. Inflation never sleeps. It’s higher, and it’s going to stay higher. It may go higher."

MAJORITY OF WORKERS REGRET QUITTING DURING THE GREAT RESIGNATION

A customer shops at a supermarket in Millbrae, California, Aug. 10, 2022. (Li Jianguo / Xinhua via Getty Images / Getty Images)

One of the main drivers behind the resurgence in price growth is China's decision to relax its strict zero-COVID-19 policy and reopen its economy – the second-largest in the world. Doing so has helped to ease supply chain pressures and revived Beijing's status as a manufacturing powerhouse. But it has also threatened to push up global prices for fuel, industrial metals and food this year because China is the world's largest consumer of most commodities.

Emons also predicted that China's tourism will directly influence the next wave of inflation. Before the pandemic locked down most of the world, China was one of the biggest contributors to global tourism. In 2019, Beijing was actually the leading global spender in international travel with 155 million tourists spending more than a quarter of a trillion dollars overseas.

US JOB GROWTH UNEXPECTEDLY SURGES IN JANUARY AS ECONOMY ADDS 517,000 NEW POSITIONS

"There’s clearly a link here between what happens in China and what happens in Japan or Spain or Italy or the U.S.," he said. "It’s all connected with one another in terms of inflation. Everywhere inflation is going up and down for the same reason: it's going up because of the pandemic and going down because central banks are raising rates."

While inflation in the U.S. has retreated from a peak of 9.1% notched in June, there are still signs of underlying price pressures in the economy. Gas prices are up 26 cents from one month ago. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile measurements of food and energy, remains stubbornly high. And on Friday morning, the Labor Department reported that the economy added an astonishing 517,000 jobs in January.

All of that comes despite the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign by the Federal Reserve since the 1980s. Policymakers have lifted the federal funds rate eight consecutive times to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% from near-zero in March 2022. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell lauded the slow but steady decline in inflation but told reporters that the labor market remains "extremely tight" and is still "out of balance."

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The prospect of another inflation spike could leave the U.S. central bank no choice but to raise rates even higher than initially anticipated, according to Emons. He anticipates that inflation will not go back to 2% – the Fed's target – unless there is some "major economic or financial crisis."

Environment

Tenways C GO 600Pro commuter e-bike is as smooth as it gets

Published

3 hours ago

January 11, 2025

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Tenways C GO 600Pro commuter e-bike is as smooth as it gets

The e-bike industry has stalled a little bit in terms of features, and with harsh new legislation coming in from places like California, maybe it is time to start looking at e-bikes that are light, efficient, and smooth rather than how much wattage they can output. The Tenways CGO 600Pro, which comes in at just 37 pounds, is a model e-bike you should keep an eye on…

The CGO 600Pro comes in 2 flavors: a carbon belt single-speed version that Micah reviewed and this one, which is a chain and 8-speed Shimano gears. The belt drive is going to win out on simplicity and weight but if you are expecting to get close to the ‘class 1’ top speed of 20mph or need to go up some significant hills, you’ll want to opt for the chain/gear version here.

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One thing I love about this bike is the tradeoff decisions. These keep the price low and weight down while still providing a great ride. The spec sheet overall is solid but not top-shelf.

Tenways CGO600 Pro tech specs (chain/geared version)

Motor: 350 Watt rear hub motor with 45 Nm of torque
Top speed: 20 mph (32 km/h)
Range: Claimed up to 53 miles (85 km)
Battery: 36V 10Ah (360 Wh)
Weight: 37 lb (16.8 kg, over 40lbs with fenders, kickstand, etc)
Frame: 6061 aluminum alloy
Tires: CST Puncture-proof 700*45C-size Tires
Brakes: Tektro dual-piston hydraulic disc brakes
Gearing: Shimano 8-Speed Claris
Extras: Compact LED display, 4 pedal assist levels, slim fender set, kickstand, internally routed cables, LED lighting, removable battery, Tenways app integration, torque sensor, four color options

No Throttle?

Note that as a class 1 e-bike, neither belt/chain version has a throttle. While this may be controversial to some, it not only simplifies the bike, it makes it a Class 1, which will be legal in the most places. I tend to think of no throttle as a “foot throttle” and for the commuter application, this will serve well. Would I appreciate a throttle on a hill start? Perhaps.

The idea of this bike is to just enhance your pedal bike experience. You are going to get some exercise on this bike versus a bike that is a glorified low-power moped that runs on throttle with vestigial pedals.

More importantly, the torque sensor here is phenomenal; I mean, it is probably the best torque sensor I’ve ridden connected to a rear hub motor. The acceleration is smooth and strangely powerful for the 350W/45nm motor. Significant hills are a breeze, and this is one of the few bikes where I forget that I’m using an e-bike sometimes (until I look down and I’m going 20mph with little effort). Hills are also where the gearing really helps.

The tires are also the perfect size for a commuter with puncture resistance and treads that will do OK in rain and snow.

The bike itself is also very stealthy in terms of showing that it is a powered e-bike. The small 36V, 10Ah battery is integrated magnificently into the narrow downtube of the bike. All of the cables are integrated into the bike frame for a super-clean look. The rear hub motor is small but packs a punch. Many people won’t even recognize this as an e-bike. While I’m proud to be riding an e-bike around, perhaps some people would like to keep that on the down-low.

Brakes are great with hydraulic Tektros clasping against 160mm rotors in front and back. It is such a light bike that stopping can be jarring.

Assembly was super easy and took about 30 minutes with the included tool set. The battery came about 40% charged but was ready to go within a few hours with the 3A charger. Shoutout to Tenways for using a water-resistant standardized barrel charger adapter and not some proprietary adapter so that I can use one from another bike when I inevitably lose it.

Electrek’s take

The Tenways CGO600 is a fantastic light, clean, stiff and smooth e-bike that I have 0 reservations about recommending. While the battery and motor are small, they power the light bike admirably and for around 50 miles (your mileage will vary).

Currently there is a $200 off promotion code “HAPPY2025TW” at checkout bringing the CGO600Pro down to $1399 which is an amazing price for this bike:

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Technology

Mark Zuckerberg slams Apple on its lack of innovation and ‘random rules’

Published

3 hours ago

January 11, 2025

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Mark Zuckerberg slams Apple on its lack of innovation and 'random rules'

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg appears at the Meta Connect event in Menlo Park, California, Sept. 25, 2024.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg slammed rival tech giant Apple for lackluster innovation efforts and “random rules” in a lengthy podcast interview on Friday.

“On the one hand, [the iPhone has] been great, because now pretty much everyone in the world has a phone, and that’s kind of what enables pretty amazing things,” Zuckerberg said in an episode of the “Joe Rogan Experience.” “But on the other hand … they have used that platform to put in place a lot of rules that I think feel arbitrary and [I] feel like they haven’t really invented anything great in a while. It’s like Steve Jobs invented the iPhone, and now they’re just kind of sitting on it 20 years later.”

Zuckerberg added that he thought iPhone sales were struggling because consumers are taking longer to upgrade their phones because new models aren’t big improvements from prior iterations.

“So how are they making more money as a company? Well, they do it by basically, like, squeezing people, and, like you’re saying, having this 30% tax on developers by getting you to buy more peripherals and things that plug into it,” Zuckerberg said. “You know, they build stuff like Air Pods, which are cool, but they’ve just thoroughly hamstrung the ability for anyone else to build something that can connect to the iPhone in the same way.”

Apple defends itself from pushback from other companies by saying that it doesn’t want to violate consumers’ privacy and security, according to Zuckerberg. But he said that the problem would be solved if Apple fixed its protocol, like building better security and using encryption.

“It’s insecure because you didn’t build any security into it. And then now you’re using that as a justification for why only your product can connect in an easy way,” Zuckerberg said.

Zuckerberg said that if Apple stopped applying its “random rules,” Meta’s profit would double.

He also took shots at Apple’s Vision Pro headset, which had disappointing U.S. sales. Meta sells its own virtual headsets called the Meta Quest.

“I think the Vision Pro is, I think, one of the bigger swings at doing a new thing that they tried in a while,” Zuckerberg said. “And I don’t want to give them too hard of a time on it, because we do a lot of things where the first version isn’t that good, and you want to kind of judge the third version of it. But I mean, the V1, it definitely did not hit it out of the park.”

“I heard it’s really good for watching movies,” he added.

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment from CNBC.

Sports

Santa Anita racing ppd., track used for fire relief

Published

4 hours ago

January 11, 2025

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Santa Anita racing ppd., track used for fire relief

Associated Press

Jan 11, 2025, 01:32 PM ET

LOS ANGELES — A flare-up of the wildfire on the west side of Los Angeles that prompted new evacuations has caused Santa Anita to cancel horse racing this weekend.

The track in Arcadia, near the smoldering Eaton fire that decimated Altadena, had said Friday that it would go ahead with Saturday racing, pending air quality conditions.

However, track officials said early Saturday that given the Friday night developments involving the Palisades fire, there will be no racing this weekend.

They said air quality standards at the track remain well within the limits set by the California Horse Racing Board and the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, but cited the growing impact of the fires throughout Los Angeles County.

The sprawling 90-year-old track is being used to support several relief efforts.

The charity drop-off that was set up at the Rose Bowl was relocated to Santa Anita’s south parking lot on Friday. Southern California Edison is using the entire north parking lot as its base camp to restore power to those in the affected areas. The track is working with other organizations requesting space.

Morning training will continue as scheduled Saturday and Sunday. The track has its own security staff and does not use local first responders for normal events.

Rescheduled dates for the postponed races will be announced later.