New Western measures aim to turn up the heat on Putin’s oil revenues. Analysts are underwhelmed
Freight wagons carrying oil and fuel at a petroleum products terminal in Riga, Latvia, on Feb. 2, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The West’s latest attempt to ramp up its oil war against Russia may cause some market dislocation, but some energy analysts remain far from convinced that the restrictions will constitute a “transformative event.”
An EU ban on Russian oil product imports came into effect on Feb. 5, following similar restrictions on EU crude oil intake, implemented on Dec. 5. The Group of Seven wealthy countries, the European Union and Australia on Friday on Friday set a ceiling for the price at which nations outside of the coalition may purchase seaborne Russian diesel and other refined petroleum products and still benefit from Western shipping and financial facilities.
The price cap coalition, which is composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., seeks to deplete Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest amid Moscow’s ongoing hostilities in Ukraine.
The EU and its G-7 allies said last week that it had set two price caps for Russian petroleum products — one is a $100 per barrel cap on products that trade at a premium to crude, like diesel, and the other is a $45 cap for petroleum products that trade at a discount to the same basis.
Some analysts warned that the measures could cause “significant market dislocations” and that the EU embargo was more complex and more disruptive than what had come before.
Not everyone shares this assessment.
“There is an overwhelming assumption that this will be a huge disruption to everything. I don’t really think this will be a transformative event,” Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
“I don’t really think that this will have the impact that a lot of people can imagine, and the main driver for this will be actually human creativity — and the constant search for a new solution, for a new supply chain or for a new route,” Katona said.
“This will bring us basically into the same story that we had with the oil price cap back in December. People expected a lot of things. In the end, it never really happened,” he added.
‘Russia may struggle to compensate fully’
As part of the sixth EU package of sanctions against Russia that was adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia. The restrictions applied in early December and February, respectively.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via a video conference on Feb. 3, 2023.
Pavel Byrkin | Afp | Getty Images
Asked whether those predicting significant market disruption because of the measures targeting Russia’s refined oil products were likely to be wide of the mark, Katona replied, “I think they are. I would say that the main development of the past two weeks when it comes to Russian diesel has been happening not in Europe, but in North Africa.”
Katona said North African countries were expected to receive at least 6 million barrels of ultra-low sulfur diesel from Russia, estimating that this was roughly one-quarter of what the European Union used to purchase from Moscow.
He explained that a “substantial transformation clause” remains under question because North African countries are not members of the price cap coalition.
“Basically, you drip one droplet of something else into a cargo of Russian diesel and it is already Moroccan, it is already Algerian, it is already Tunisian,” Katona said. “All of these countries have seen quite a substantial uptick in Russian diesel flows. And our expectation is that Feb. 5 kicks in, and there will be a lot of flows from North Africa, basically Russian in all but name.”
Ahead of the Western ban on its oil supplies, the Kremlin reaffirmed its opposition to the measures and warned that it would cause further market imbalances.
“It will lead to further imbalances on the international energy markets,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Friday, according to Russian news agency Tass. “Naturally, we are taking precautions to protect our interests from the risks associated with it.”
Energy analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said that the latest wave of Western sanctions was likely to dislocate flows rather than cause a severe disruption of supplies, noting that oil-product markets have had several months of advance notice to prepare for the restrictions.
“Still, while flows are readjusting, some disruption is possible, especially in the middle distillate market, which was already tight before the latest sanctions,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note.
“Russia may struggle to compensate fully for the loss of EU buyers, especially if a recovering China stops exporting so much surplus fuel and instead starts to import significant quantities again,” they added.
‘Shipments will take longer’
“This is a very substantial disruption to really a key industrial field across much of the euro zone,” Edward Bell, commodities analyst at Emirates NBD, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday.
“Russia was the dominant external supplier of diesel to euro zone economies, so the fact that this embargo is now in place means that there will be a little bit of a readjustment and scrambling to get those additional barrels.”
Bell said it appears as though Russia has so far been able to find new markets or expand diesel exports to historical markets, such as to Turkey and partners in North Africa and Asia. “All this means those shipments will take longer,” he added.
“This is not a positive indicator in terms of the direction for prices going downward and easing the burden of energy prices on consumers but in terms of actually disrupting supply it doesn’t like we are in any kind of panic stations just yet.”
Bell suggested Saudi Arabia’s diesel exports to Europe could be set for a “big uptick,” following the West’s embargo on Russian petroleum products.
![Stig drifts 2,000 hp electric Ford Supervan around Top Gear test track [video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/12/stig_vs_supervan.jpg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
The Top Gear TV show might be over, but its tamed racing driver – a masked, anonymous hot shoe known only as “the Stig” – lives on … and his latest adventure involves pitching the 1,400 hp electric Ford SuperVan demonstration vehicle around the famed Top Gear test track. Sideways.
Whether we’re talking about record lap times at hallowed motorsports grounds like Bathhurst or the Hillclimb at the Goodwood Festival of Speed, we’ve been covering the 1,400 hp SuperVan project for some time – but the big boxy Transit-ish racing van with hypercar-slaying performance never seems to get boring.
In this video from the official Top Gear YouTube channel (is Top Gear just a YouTube show, now?), the boxy Ford racer seems to have sprouted an additional 600 peak horsepower in its latest “4.2” iteration, for a stout 2,000 hp total. For his (?) part, the Stig puts all of those horses to work in what appears to be a serious attempt to take the overall track record.
I won’t spoil the outcome for you, but suffice it to say that even the most die-hard anti-EV hysterics will have to admit that SuperVan is a seriously quick machine.
SuperVan 4.2: How fast can a 2000 hp transit go?
[SPOILERS AHEAD] Even with 2,000 hp, instant torque, and over 4,000 lbs. of aerodynamic downforce, the SuperVan wasn’t able to beat the long-standing 1st and 2nd place spots held by the Renault R24 (a legit Formula 1 race car) and the Lotus T125 Exos (a track-only special that sure looks like a legit Formula 1 race car), but after crossing the line with a time of 1:05.3, the Ford claims third place on the overall leaderboard.
That 3rd place is likely to be a permanent spot on Top Gear‘s leaderboard, as well – as the track itself is likely to be demolished somewhat sooner than later.
You can check out the video (above) and watch the whole segment for yourself, or just skip ahead to the eight-minute mark to watch the tire-shredding sideways action promised in the headline. If you do, let us know what you think of Ford’s fast “van” in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Top Gear.
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Swedish multinational Sandvik says it’s successfully deployed a pair of fully autonomous Toro LH518iB battery-electric underground loaders at the New Gold Inc. ($NGD) New Afton mine in British Columbia, Canada.
The heavy mining equipment experts at Sandvik say that the revolutionary new 18 ton loaders have been in service since mid-November, working in a designated test area of the mine’s “Lift 1” footwall. The mine’s operators are preparing to move the automated machines to the mine’s “C-Zone” any time now, putting them into regular service by the first of the new year.
“This is a significant milestone for Canadian mining, as these are North America’s first fully automated battery-electric loaders,” Sandvik said in a LinkedIn post. “(The Toro LH518iB’s) introduction highlights the potential of automation and electrification in mining.”
The company says the addition of the new heavy loaders will enable New Afton’s operations to “enhance cycle times and reduce heat, noise and greenhouse gas emissions” at the block cave mine – the only such operation (currently) in Canada.
Electrek’s Take
From drilling and rigging to heavy haul solutions, companies like Sandvik are proving that electric equipment is more than up to the task of moving dirt and pulling stuff out of the ground. At the same time, rising demand for nickel, lithium, and phosphates combined with the natural benefits of electrification are driving the adoption of electric mining machines while a persistent operator shortage is boosting demand for autonomous tech in those machines.
The combined factors listed above are rapidly accelerating the rate at which machines that are already in service are becoming obsolete – and, while some companies are exploring the cost/benefit of converting existing vehicles to electric or, in some cases, hydrogen, the general consensus seems to be that more companies will be be buying more new equipment more often in the years ahead.
What’s more, more of that equipment will be more and more likely to be autonomous as time goes on.
We covered the market outlook for autonomous and electric mining equipment earlier this summer, and I posted an episode exploring the growing demand for electric equipment on an episode of Quick Charge I’ve embedded, below. Check it out, then let us know what you think of the future of electric mining in the comments.
More EVs means more mines, equipment
SOURCE | IMAGES: Sandvik, via LinkedIn.
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European logistics firm Contargo is adding twenty of Mercedes’ new, 600 km-capable eActros battery electric semi trucks to its trimodal delivery fleet, bringing zero-emission shipping to Germany’s hinterland.
With over 300 miles of all-electric range, the new Mercedes eActros 600 electric semi truck was designed for (what a European would call) long-haul trucking. Now, after officially entering production at the company’s Wörth plant in Bavaria last month, the eActros 600 is reaching its first customer: Contargo.
With the addition of the twenty new Mercedes, Contargo’s electric truck fleet has grown to 60 BEVs, with plans to increase that total to 90. And, according to Mercedes, Contargo is just the first.
The German truck company says it has plans to deliver fifty (50) of the 600 kWh battery-equipped electric semi trucks to German shipping companies by the close of 2024.
Contargo’s 20 eActros 600 trucks were funded in part by the Federal Ministry for Digital Affairs and Transport as part of a broader plan to replace a total of 86 diesel-engined commercial vehicles with more climate-friendly alternatives. The funding directive is coordinated by NOW GmbH, and the applications were approved by the Federal Office for Logistics and Mobility.
Electrek’s Take
Electric semi trucks are racking up millions of miles in the US, and abroad. As more and more pilot programs begin to pay off, they’re going to lead to more orders for battery electric trucks and more reductions in both diesel demand and harmful carbon emissions.
We can’t wait to see more.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Contargo, via Electrive.
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