New Western measures aim to turn up the heat on Putin’s oil revenues. Analysts are underwhelmed
Freight wagons carrying oil and fuel at a petroleum products terminal in Riga, Latvia, on Feb. 2, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The West’s latest attempt to ramp up its oil war against Russia may cause some market dislocation, but some energy analysts remain far from convinced that the restrictions will constitute a “transformative event.”
An EU ban on Russian oil product imports came into effect on Feb. 5, following similar restrictions on EU crude oil intake, implemented on Dec. 5. The Group of Seven wealthy countries, the European Union and Australia on Friday on Friday set a ceiling for the price at which nations outside of the coalition may purchase seaborne Russian diesel and other refined petroleum products and still benefit from Western shipping and financial facilities.
The price cap coalition, which is composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., seeks to deplete Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest amid Moscow’s ongoing hostilities in Ukraine.
The EU and its G-7 allies said last week that it had set two price caps for Russian petroleum products — one is a $100 per barrel cap on products that trade at a premium to crude, like diesel, and the other is a $45 cap for petroleum products that trade at a discount to the same basis.
Some analysts warned that the measures could cause “significant market dislocations” and that the EU embargo was more complex and more disruptive than what had come before.
Not everyone shares this assessment.
“There is an overwhelming assumption that this will be a huge disruption to everything. I don’t really think this will be a transformative event,” Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
“I don’t really think that this will have the impact that a lot of people can imagine, and the main driver for this will be actually human creativity — and the constant search for a new solution, for a new supply chain or for a new route,” Katona said.
“This will bring us basically into the same story that we had with the oil price cap back in December. People expected a lot of things. In the end, it never really happened,” he added.
‘Russia may struggle to compensate fully’
As part of the sixth EU package of sanctions against Russia that was adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia. The restrictions applied in early December and February, respectively.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via a video conference on Feb. 3, 2023.
Pavel Byrkin | Afp | Getty Images
Asked whether those predicting significant market disruption because of the measures targeting Russia’s refined oil products were likely to be wide of the mark, Katona replied, “I think they are. I would say that the main development of the past two weeks when it comes to Russian diesel has been happening not in Europe, but in North Africa.”
Katona said North African countries were expected to receive at least 6 million barrels of ultra-low sulfur diesel from Russia, estimating that this was roughly one-quarter of what the European Union used to purchase from Moscow.
He explained that a “substantial transformation clause” remains under question because North African countries are not members of the price cap coalition.
“Basically, you drip one droplet of something else into a cargo of Russian diesel and it is already Moroccan, it is already Algerian, it is already Tunisian,” Katona said. “All of these countries have seen quite a substantial uptick in Russian diesel flows. And our expectation is that Feb. 5 kicks in, and there will be a lot of flows from North Africa, basically Russian in all but name.”
Ahead of the Western ban on its oil supplies, the Kremlin reaffirmed its opposition to the measures and warned that it would cause further market imbalances.
“It will lead to further imbalances on the international energy markets,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Friday, according to Russian news agency Tass. “Naturally, we are taking precautions to protect our interests from the risks associated with it.”
Energy analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said that the latest wave of Western sanctions was likely to dislocate flows rather than cause a severe disruption of supplies, noting that oil-product markets have had several months of advance notice to prepare for the restrictions.
“Still, while flows are readjusting, some disruption is possible, especially in the middle distillate market, which was already tight before the latest sanctions,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note.
“Russia may struggle to compensate fully for the loss of EU buyers, especially if a recovering China stops exporting so much surplus fuel and instead starts to import significant quantities again,” they added.
‘Shipments will take longer’
“This is a very substantial disruption to really a key industrial field across much of the euro zone,” Edward Bell, commodities analyst at Emirates NBD, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday.
“Russia was the dominant external supplier of diesel to euro zone economies, so the fact that this embargo is now in place means that there will be a little bit of a readjustment and scrambling to get those additional barrels.”
Bell said it appears as though Russia has so far been able to find new markets or expand diesel exports to historical markets, such as to Turkey and partners in North Africa and Asia. “All this means those shipments will take longer,” he added.
“This is not a positive indicator in terms of the direction for prices going downward and easing the burden of energy prices on consumers but in terms of actually disrupting supply it doesn’t like we are in any kind of panic stations just yet.”
Bell suggested Saudi Arabia’s diesel exports to Europe could be set for a “big uptick,” following the West’s embargo on Russian petroleum products.
BMW Motorrad’s futuristic electric scooter just got its first real refresh since beginning production in 2021. The BMW CE 04, already one of the most capable and stylish electric maxi-scooters on the market, now gets a set of upgraded trim options, new aesthetic touches, and a more robust list of features that aim to make this urban commuter even more appealing to riders looking for serious electric performance on two wheels.
The BMW CE 04 has always stood out for its sci-fi styling and high-performance drivetrain. It’s built on a mid-mounted liquid-cooled motor that puts out 31 kW (42 hp) and 62 Nm of torque. That’s enough to rocket the scooter from 0 to 50 km/h (31 mph) in just 2.6 seconds – quite fast for anything with a step-through frame.
The top speed is electronically limited to 120 km/h (75 mph), making it perfectly capable for city riding and fast enough to hold its own on highway stretches. Range is rated at 130 km (81 miles) on the WMTC cycle, thanks to the 8.9 kWh battery pack tucked low in the frame.
But while the core performance hasn’t changed, BMW’s 2025 update focuses on refining the package and giving riders more options to tailor the scooter to their taste. The new CE 04 is available in three trims: Basic, Avantgarde, and Exclusive.
The Basic trim keeps things clean and classic with a Lightwhite paint scheme and a clear windshield. It’s subtle, sleek, and very much in line with the CE 04’s clean-lined aesthetic. The Avantgarde model adds a splash of color with a Gravity Blue main body and bright São Paulo Yellow accents, along with a dark windshield and a laser-engraved rim. The top-shelf Exclusive trim is where things get fancy, with a premium Spacesilver metallic paint job, upgraded wind protection, heated grips, a luxury embroidered seat, and its own unique engraved rim treatment.
There are also a few new tech upgrades baked into the options list. Riders can now spec a 6.9 kW quick charger that reduces the 0–80% charge time to just 45 minutes (down from nearly 4 hours with the standard 2.3 kW onboard charger). Tire pressure monitoring, a center stand, and BMW’s “Headlight Pro” adaptive lighting system are also available as add-ons, along with an emergency eCall system and Dynamic Traction Control.
BMW has kept the core riding components in place: a steel-tube chassis, 15-inch wheels, Bosch ABS (with optional ABS Pro), and the impressive 10.25” TFT display with integrated navigation and smartphone connectivity. The under-seat storage still swallows a full-face helmet, and the long, low frame design means the scooter looks like something out of Blade Runner but rides like a luxury commuter.
With these updates, BMW seems to be further cementing the CE 04’s role at the high end of the electric scooter market. It’s not cheap, starting around €12,000 in Europe and around US $12,500 in the US, with prices going up from there depending on configuration. However, the maxi-scooter delivers real motorcycle-grade performance in a package that’s easier to live with for daily riders.
Electrek’s Take
I believe that the CE 04’s biggest strength has always been that it’s not trying to be a toy or a gimmick. It’s a real vehicle. Sure, it’s futuristic and funky looking, but it delivers on its promises. And in a market that’s still surprisingly sparse when it comes to premium electric scooters, BMW has had the lane mostly to itself. That may not last forever, though. LiveWire, Harley-Davidson’s electric spin-off brand, has teased plans for a maxi-scooter-style urban electric vehicle in the coming years, but as of now, it remains something of an undefined future plan.
Meanwhile, BMW is delivering not just a concept bike but a mature, well-equipped, and ready-to-ride electric scooter that keeps improving. For riders who want something faster and more capable than a Class 3 e-bike but aren’t ready to jump to a full-size electric motorcycle, the CE 04 hits a sweet spot. It delivers the performance and capability of a commuter e-motorcycle, yet with the approachability of a scooter. And with these new trims and upgrades, it’s doing it with even more style.
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If you’ve ever wondered what happens when you combine a fruit cart, a cargo bike, and a Piaggio Ape all in one vehicle, now you’ve got your answer. I submit, for your approval, this week’s feature for the Awesomely Weird Alibaba Electric Vehicle of the Week column – and it’s a beautiful doozie.
Feast your eyes on this salad slinging, coleslaw cruising, tuber taxiing produce chariot!
I think this electric vegetable trike might finally scratch the itch long felt by many of my readers. It seems every time I cover an electric trike, even the really cool ones, I always get commenters poo-poo-ing it for having two wheels in the rear instead of two wheels in the front. Well, here you go, folks!
Designed with two front wheels for maximum stability, this trike keeps your cucumbers in check through every corner. Because trust me, you don’t want to hit a pothole and suddenly be juggling peaches like you’re in Cirque du Soleil: Farmers Market Edition.
To avoid the extra cost of designing a linked steering system for a pair of front wheels, the engineers who brought this salad shuttle to life simply side-stepped that complexity altogether by steering the entire fixed front end. I’ve got articulating electric tractors that steer like this, and so if it works for a several-ton work machine, it should work for a couple hundred pounds of cargo bike.
Featuring a giant cargo bed up front with four cascading fruit baskets set up for roadside sales, this cargo bike is something of a blank slate. Sure, you could monetize grandma’s vegetable garden, or you could fill it with your own ideas and concoctions. Our exceedingly talented graphics wizard sees it as the perfect coffee and pastry e-bike for my new startup, The Handlebarista, and I’m not one to argue. Basically, the sky is the limit with a blank slate bike like this!
Sure, the quality doesn’t quite match something like a fancy Tern cargo bike. The rim brakes aren’t exactly confidence-inspiring, but at least there are three of them. And if they should all give out, or just not quite slow you down enough to avoid that quickly approaching brick wall, then at least you’ve got a couple hundred pounds of tomatoes as a tasty crumple zone.
The electrical system does seem a bit underpowered. With a 36V battery and a 250W motor, I don’t know if one-third of a horsepower is enough to haul a full load to the local farmer’s market. But I guess if the weight is a bit much for the little motor, you could always do some snacking along the way. On the other hand, all the pictures seem to show a non-electric version. So if this cart is presumably mobile on pedal power alone, then that extra motor assist, however small, is going to feel like a very welcome guest.
The $950 price is presumably for the electric version, since that’s what’s in the title of the listing, though I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. I’ve bought a LOT of stuff on Alibaba, including many electric vehicles, and the too-good-to-be-true price is always exactly that. In my experience, you can multiply the Alibaba price by 3-4x to get the actual landed price for things like these. Even so, $3,000-$4,000 wouldn’t be a terrible price, considering a lot of electric trikes stateside already cost that much and don’t even come with a quad-set of vegetable baskets on board!
I should also put my normal caveat in here about not actually buying one of these. Please, please don’t try to buy one of these awesome cargo e-trikes. This is a silly, tongue-in-cheek weekend column where I scour the ever-entertaining underbelly of China’s massive e-commerce site Alibaba in search of fun, quirky, and just plain awesomely weird electric vehicles. While I’ve successfully bought several fun things on the platform, I’ve also gotten scammed more than once, so this is not for the timid or the tight-budgeted among us.
That isn’t to say that some of my more stubborn readers haven’t followed in my footsteps before, ignoring my advice and setting out on their own wild journey. But please don’t be the one who risks it all and gets nothing in return. Don’t say I didn’t warn you; this is the warning.
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