Of all the conversations I had at All-Star weekend in Florida, one with Sidney Crosby stuck out. He told me, multiple times, that the league feels more competitive than it has ever been. In 18 years in the NHL, Crosby said he has never seen anything like it. Sure, Boston has run away with the top record in the league, but there are so many teams clustered behind the Bruins, and any team can win on any night, meaning it’s hard to determine the true favorites.
So as we approach the trade deadline (March 3) — compounded with a stagnant salary cap that has limited so many of the contenders — teams are being cautious on going all-in. Teams seemingly in the mix might end up trading away veterans. Teams arriving ahead of schedule or surging up the standings (see: New Jersey, Buffalo) are being cautious about giving up too much this year, knowing it’s more important for their franchises to build sustainably for the future. And we still aren’t sure which players are available, as some of the top pending unrestricted free agents, such as Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, have yet to announce their intentions. How it all shakes out will make for an intriguing lead-up to the deadline.
Here’s what I’m hearing about storylines to follow over the next month.
Latest on Dylan Larkin in Detroit
At All-Star weekend, Dylan Larkin lamented what he said was misinformation about his contract talks. “It just seems people are fishing and speculating,” Larkin said. “I don’t really want my business out there. I understand we’re in the spotlight and fans want to know. They deserve to know. But I think it’s not really the most truthful, you know?”
As the captain of the Red Wings, Larkin doesn’t want his situation to go public. He hates being a distraction to the team. He has handled the situation as well as he can, but it has to be frustrating. Because in talking to people close to Larkin, nobody really knows where this is going.
So without going into numbers, here’s what I can tell you about the dynamics going on behind the scenes:
Big picture, Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman has a price in mind for what he’s willing to pay for Larkin, and it’s not in line with what some other No. 1 centers around the league are making. Yzerman is sticking to that number. Larkin’s camp is arguing: What does it cost to replace Larkin? They feel strongly about his worth, and it’s more than Yzerman has been willing to budge. So we’re between a rock and a hard place.
The one thing I’ve heard consistently about Yzerman as a general manager is that he works slow. He grinds things out. He and Larkin’s camp haven’t talked in a few days. In that time, the Islanders offered Horvat the $8.5 million AAV. So when Larkin’s reps and Yzerman reconnect — likely sometime this week — they’ll see if that comp helps their case.
Ideally Yzerman wants to get this deal done before the March 3 deadline so he can plan other moves — and also ensure his 26-year-old captain doesn’t walk away this summer for nothing. Larkin has full control here with a no-trade clause in his deal. As of now, Larkin doesn’t have an appetite for moving, either at the deadline or this summer. He’s a hometown kid who has played his entire life in the state of Michigan. He takes pride in leading Detroit. But it’s becoming apparent other teams might be willing to give him more money on the open market. And if there isn’t progress, his agent can talk to other teams and broker a deal to where Larkin wants to go. But they are hopeful it doesn’t get to that. Based on how things are going, there’s a very good chance this doesn’t get resolved until the summer.
David Pastrnak close to getting paid?
On the David Pastrnak contract talks, I’ve been told the Bruins and their star winger are “financially very close.” Though Pastrnak admitted during All-Star weekend that there is no rush and he is focusing on hockey, this is tracking to get done this season, after some progress the past few weeks. It sounds like Pastrnak will get paid on level with the top stars in the league, and for more money than Boston’s front office was originally budgeting. I have heard that Pastrnak also wanted to be comfortable with the Bruins’ long-term vision so they can stay competitive in the next era after Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci and Brad Marchand are done.
To that end, it sounds like the Bruins have been very hesitant to give up a first-round pick or too many assets for rental players at this year’s deadline. They’ve been burned before, and need to build back up their prospect pool. The Bruins are looking to make depth additions for the playoff push, but ideally would pick up a player who fits into their long-term plans as well. Cost certainty is also a big priority for two other top Eastern Conference contenders: the New Jersey Devils and Carolina Hurricanes.
Islanders needed to overpay Bo Horvat
If Horvat’s eight-year, $8.5 million AAV extension reaffirmed anything, it’s the importance of market dynamics. Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello said it himself: “It’s too long and it’s too much money.” But the Islanders were desperate for a jolt. When I was in Long Island the week before the All-Star break, players were saying they didn’t believe the Islanders were as bad as their record suggested. They just were in a rut, struggling to score — Mathew Barzal told me he thought he should have three more goals and 15 more assists — and the power play was brutal. Lamoriello gave up significant assets to obtain Horvat, and needed to overpay to ensure it wasn’t for naught.
Market for Timo Meier
With Horvat moved, all eyes are on Timo Meier as the top forward available. He’s 26, and scoring at a career pace (0.55 goals per game through his first 51 games) at exactly the right time. Meier is a restricted free agent this summer (albeit with a $10 million qualifying offer). But teams around the league are hoping to negotiate a new contract with Meier’s camp in facilitating the trade, hoping they can get him in the $8 million to $9 million range. The Metro rival Devils and New York Rangers are both very interested, though cautious about getting into a bidding war, because they’re not alone in that interest. “Everyone is talking to San Jose about Timo Meier,” one Eastern Conference executive told me. “Everyone is monitoring it.”
Thatcher Demko on the move?
There has been a lot of speculation about Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko ahead of the trade deadline. Per sources, at least four teams have called Vancouver asking about Demko’s availability — and the Canucks haven’t said no to any of those teams. If Vancouver is serious about a rebuild, it could get a lot of assets for Demko, who is just 27 and under contract for three more years on a team-friendly $5 million per season.
The goalie hasn’t played since Dec. 1 because of a lower body injury, and he’s about a week and a half away from getting back on the ice. Should he get in a couple of good starts and look like the old, dominant Demko again, that interest would probably increase. So it’s a situation to monitor, but not necessarily one that’s imminent.
It’s not as hot of a goalie market as it was last year, though there will be teams looking for some assurance in net, especially if injuries pop up over the next few weeks. The two veterans most likely to be on the move are Cam Talbot out of Ottawa and James Reimer out of San Jose. The Canes have three NHL goalies, and given the emergence of Pyotr Kochetkov, they might be willing to move pending UFA Antti Raanta should the right offer emerge.
Kevin Hayes and latest on Flyers
One of the best stories of the weekend was Kevin Hayes, the 30-year-old forward making his first All-Star appearance in his ninth year of the league. Hayes’ late brother, Jimmy, always told Kevin he believed he was an All-Star.
“I never really thought that something like this would happen,” Kevin said. “He would always just say, ‘This is the year, it’s going to happen.’ I think he was just saying it to be a good guy.”
It was clearly an emotional weekend for Hayes, who shared the ice with his cousins, Matthew and Brady Tkachuk, as well as his former Boston College teammate, Johnny Gaudreau. A large contingent of the Hayes family was on hand, including Jimmy’s son, Beau, whose No. 1 goal of the weekend was meeting his favorite player, David Pastrnak, in the locker room.
The Flyers had practice Sunday afternoon in Voorhees, and I’m told Hayes switched flights to a 7 a.m. departure to rush back to make it. That’s an example of Hayes’ character, and the way he’s working hard to set an example for the new culture of the Flyers under John Tortorella. That type of discipline didn’t always exist on the team.
On Monday, Tortorella sent a letter to Flyers season-ticket holders, being transparent about where the team was in its journey. The key line: “I’m not going to lie to you — and I want to be clear about this — we’re not there yet. This year was the first step in building the future of the Flyers and restoring our reputation as one of the most respected teams in hockey.” That signals the Flyers are going to once again be sellers at this year’s deadline.
I have heard there are some teams interested in Hayes, who has three years remaining on his contract with an average annual value of $7.1 million, though the Flyers would undoubtedly need to retain some salary should they move him. The more likely Philly forward to get traded is James van Riemsdyk, a pending unrestricted free agent (who would also require some retention on his $7 million salary). And while the Flyers would like to move Ivan Provorov ($6.75 million, under contract through 2024-25), I was told by an Eastern Conference executive that there’s a lot more league-wide interest in Nick Seeler ($750,000, under contract through 2023-24) as a diamond-in-the-rough option on a budget contract. Philadelphia could be inclined to move the 29-year-old Seeler to open up spots for younger players in the final stretch.
LOS ANGELES — A flare-up of the wildfire on the west side of Los Angeles that prompted new evacuations has caused Santa Anita to cancel horse racing this weekend.
The track in Arcadia, near the smoldering Eaton fire that decimated Altadena, had said Friday that it would go ahead with Saturday racing, pending air quality conditions.
However, track officials said early Saturday that given the Friday night developments involving the Palisades fire, there will be no racing this weekend.
They said air quality standards at the track remain well within the limits set by the California Horse Racing Board and the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, but cited the growing impact of the fires throughout Los Angeles County.
The sprawling 90-year-old track is being used to support several relief efforts.
The charity drop-off that was set up at the Rose Bowl was relocated to Santa Anita’s south parking lot on Friday. Southern California Edison is using the entire north parking lot as its base camp to restore power to those in the affected areas. The track is working with other organizations requesting space.
Morning training will continue as scheduled Saturday and Sunday. The track has its own security staff and does not use local first responders for normal events.
Rescheduled dates for the postponed races will be announced later.
The first 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final two contenders: Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish and eighth-seeded Buckeyes will meet Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T. Whichever team wins will end a championship drought. Notre Dame aims for its first title since 1988. Ohio State’s lull isn’t nearly as long, as the Buckeyes won the first CFP championship a decade ago, but given how consistently elite they are, it seems like a while.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Ohio State’s Ryan Day are also aiming for their first championships as head coaches, and Freeman’s past will be in the spotlight. Freeman and the Irish lost to the Buckeyes and Day in each of the past two seasons. But after a masterful coaching job this season, Freeman now will face his alma mater — he was an All-Big Ten linebacker for Ohio State under coach Jim Tressel — with everything on the line. Day, meanwhile, can secure the loftiest goal for a team that fell short of earlier ones, but never stopped swinging.
Here’s your first look at the championship matchup and what to expect in the ATL. — Adam Rittenberg
When: Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the semifinal: Notre Dame’s resilience and situational awareness/execution are undeniably its signature traits and could propel the team to a title. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and did so again against Penn State. They also erased two deficits and continued to hold the edge in the “middle eight” — the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half — while dominating third down on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame can rely on front men such as quarterback Riley Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Jack Kiser, but also on backup QB Steve Angeli, wide receiver Jaden Greathouse and kicker Mitch Jeter. These Irish fight, and they’re very hard to knock out.
X factor: Greathouse entered Thursday with moderate numbers — 29 receptions, 359 yards, one touchdown — and had only three total catches for 14 yards in the first two CFP games. But he recorded career highs in both receptions (7) and receiving yards (105) and tied the score on a 54-yard touchdown with 4:38 to play. A Notre Dame offense looking for more from its wide receivers, especially downfield, could lean more on Greathouse, who exceeded his receptions total from the previous five games but might be finding his groove at the perfect time. He also came up huge in the clutch, recording all but six of his receiving yards in the second half.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish won’t have the talent edge in Atlanta, partly because they’ve lost several stars to season-ending injuries, but they have the right traits to hang with any opponent. Notre Dame needs contributions in all three phases and must continue to sprinkle in downfield passes, an element offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has pushed. And they finally did start seeing results against Penn State. The Irish likely can’t afford to lose the turnover margin, although they can help themselves by replicating their third-down brilliance — 11 of 17 conversions on offense, 3 of 11 conversions allowed on defense — from the Penn State win. — Rittenberg
What we learned in the semifinal: The Buckeyes have a defense with championship mettle, headlined by senior defensive end Jack Sawyer, who delivered one of the biggest defensive plays in Ohio State history. On fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes remaining, Sawyer sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, forcing a fumble that he scooped up and raced 83 yards for a game-clinching touchdown, propelling Ohio State to the national title game. The Buckeyes weren’t perfect in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and they struggled offensively for much of the night against a talented Texas defense. But Ohio State showed late why its defense is arguably the best in college football, too.
X factor: The play two snaps before the Sawyer scoop-and-score set the table. On second-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line, unheralded senior safety Lathan Ransom dashed past incoming blockers and dropped Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for a 7-yard loss. After an incomplete pass, the Longhorns were forced into desperation mode on fourth-and-goal down a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. All-American safety Caleb Downs, who had an interception on Texas’ ensuing drive, rightfully gets all the headlines for the Ohio State secondary. But the Buckeyes have other veteran standouts such as Ransom throughout their defense.
How Ohio State wins: Texas took away Ohio State’s top offensive playmaker, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had only one reception for 3 yards on three targets. As the first two playoff games underscored, the Buckeyes offense is at its best when Smith gets the ball early and often. Notre Dame is sure to emulate the Texas blueprint, positioning the defensive backs to challenge Smith. Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has to counter with a plan that finds ways to get the ball into Smith’s hands, no matter what the Fighting Irish do. — Jake Trotter
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.