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close video Ron DeSantis is Republican’s early 2024 frontrunner: GOP pollster Lee Carter

GOP pollster Lee Carter discusses potential 2024 presidential candidates, telling ‘Cavuto: Coast to Coast’ you can always tell who’s leading by who gets attacked the most, and Gov. DeSantis is that guy.

Wall Street is starting to love Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s prospects in the 2024 presidential election so much that it is already eyeing stocks that will benefit, as well as those that could tank, if he wins the White House.

Strategas Research Partners, an economic and market advisory firm run by the well-known market analyst Jason Trennert, is among the firms gauging the market impact of a DeSantis presidency, with a client report titled "DeSantis Winners & Losers Baskets." 

The report, published last week, was obtained and reviewed by Fox Business. It bases its research primarily on DeSantis’s policy positions as governor of Florida. It is yet another indication that major financial players are betting that DeSantis runs for President in 2024, can beat former President Trump in the GOP primary, and beat Joe Biden in the general election. 



Republican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis with his wife Casey DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022. – Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has been tipped (Giorgio Viera/Getty Images / Getty Images)

It’s also a sign that Wall Street thinks there will be market implications with a DeSantis victory given his record as Florida governor. According to the report, stocks it identifies as DeSantis winners are already outperforming those it identifies as DeSantis losers.

DESANTIS WARNS OVER CHINA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS: 'GOBBLING UP LAND' NOT IN FLORIDA'S BEST INTEREST

The report added that DeSantis is a slight favorite in the betting odds to win the Republican primary against Trump. "After DeSantis’ landslide victory in Florida, client interest about a DeSantis candidacy has increased, particularly around company risks and opportunities," the report said. "This makes sense, with DeSantis having non-traditional Republican policies."

"We expect President Biden to announce his candidacy following his State of the Union on February 7th," the report stated. "Former President Trump was out campaigning this past weekend. Nikki Haley will likely announce her candidacy in two weeks, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is indicating he is likely to get in the race." 



Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley makes a speech at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, United States on November 01, 2018. Nikki Haley is expected to throw her name in the hat for the Repbulican Presidential Nominatio (Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Financial advisers who have read Strategas research urge caution about making big market bets based on the report. First, while certainly considering a presidential run, DeSantis has yet to declare. In recent weeks he has been meeting with enthusiastic financial industry fundraisers, who believe he can beat Joe Biden or any other Democrat, while Trump can’t. The former President remains mired in various scandals and his reputation tarnished by his role in the January 6 riots.

US President Donald Trump speaks during a retreat with Republican lawmakers at Camp David in Thurmont, Maryland, January 6, 2018. Former President Trump remains mired in controversy. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

STUART VARNEY: FLORIDA’S GOV. RON DESANTIS LOOKS LIKE A FUTURE PRESIDENT

But as Fox Business has reported, DeSantis has told donors it’s not his preference to get embroiled in a nasty primary battle with Trump for the GOP nomination, raising some doubts he will challenge the former President in a primary. Trump is the only GOP candidate to formally announce his intentions, and has already been targeting DeSantis with his well-known vitriol.

Also, financial advisers say some of the report’s conclusions are nebulous. Energy company ConocoPhillips is a DeSantis "winner" because of the Florida governor’s support of drilling of "fossil fuels like natural gas and crude." DeSantis is likely to reduce regulations that have curtailed drilling. 

But oil company profits have been soaring amid restrictions the Biden Administration has placed on the industry and its embrace of Environmental Social Governance investment mandates that are designed to reduce carbon emissions by restricting supply. The result has been an increase in energy prices, profits and soaring energy-company stocks. Since Joe Biden took office in January 2021, shares of ConocoPhillips have more than doubled to $108 per share, far outperforming the Standard and Poor’s 500 index of large company stocks.

Moreover, DeSantis’s market-related policies may not deviate much from Trump who during his four years in office where the former President cut taxes, reduced regulations but also picked fights with big businesses like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, who owns the Washington Post, and AT&T, which until recently owned the left-leaning CNN cable network. 

DeSantis has famously feuded with Disney over its attacks against a state law that bans teaching sex education to toddlers. Strategas places Disney among the 19 DeSantis "loser" stocks. 

That said, the four-page report is a sign that Wall Street increasingly believes DeSantis could win the White House in 2024, and that clients should begin planning their portfolios to benefit from his policies.

Likewise, they should avoid and "short" or bet against stocks that will face DeSantis related headwinds, or those Strategas includeed in its "DeSantis loser basket." These are companies that Strategas says adhere to "woke," corporate policies, like the aforementioned Disney. Other companies in that basket include "vaccine makers," those that embrace so-called Environmental Social Governance or ESG investment policies, and those with substantial operations in China.













Ticker Security Last Change Change % DIS THE WALT DISNEY CO. 111.65 +1.80 +1.64%

Recall how DeSantis took on Disney even though it was one of the state’s largest employers but lost a major tax subsidy because of its opposition to the sex-ed law by removing its favorable tax status in the state. Strategas says DeSantis will probably use the Disney template nationally against companies that adopt similarly left-wing policies including an embrace of so-called Environmental Social Governance or ESG investing. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks on Nov. 19, 2022, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher / AP Newsroom)

ESG promotes the reduction in the carbon footprint of asset-managers’ portfolio companies and other progressive political stances. But these mandates have increasingly come under attack from GOP elected officials who say it has led to higher gas prices and pushes a left-wing political agenda.

As governor DeSantis has recently targeted BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager that has been at the forefront of ESG, pulling $2 billion in state money that was being managed by the firm. Strategas sees additional national regulations curtailing ESG if DeSantis gets elected. Because ESG investments often charge higher management fees than other stock-picking methods, BlackRock becomes a "loser" as those new regulations could depress profits.



Ticker Security Last Change Change % BLK BLACKROCK INC. 740.96 -1.47 -0.20%

Also on the loser list is Amazon and Apple, two corporate whipping boys of the right because they’re seen as woke Silicon Valley enterprises that have stifled conservative speech. Aple, meanwhile, has substantial manufacturing ties to China. Companies with ties to China are seen as "losers" in the Strategas report, given the nation’s geo-political ambitions and its role in the Covid pandemic. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change % AMZN AMAZON.COM INC. 102.11 -0.07 -0.07%AAPL APPLE INC. 154.65 +2.92 +1.92%

Meta, the holding company for Facebook, makes the loser list as well for censoring conservative opinions. Drug makers Pfizer and Moderna become DeSantis losers as well; Strategas sees a DeSantis administration as far less draconian in terms of COVID vaccine mandates, thus these companies will see falling profit margins. His Justice Department may also pursue claims that the companies inflated their efficacy, the report says.

Ticker Security Last Change Change % META META PLATFORMS INC. 191.62 +5.56 +2.99%PFE PFIZER INC. 43.60 -0.17 -0.38%MRNA MODERNA INC. 171.06 +0.79 +0.46%

The 19 DeSantis winners are stocks in the border security, defense and energy sectors, Strategas said. "We expect DeSantis to be a strong proponent of fossil fuels, but he is not opposed to renewables," the report added. "Other areas where DeSantis could be a positive are financial companies that avoid ESG and could benefit from deregulation."

 Of the latter, the big bank JP Morgan run by CEO Jamie Dimon, who has publicly criticized ESG, makes the list of stocks that will win under a President DeSantis. Defense manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies are winners as well because DeSantis is seen as increasing the defense budget.


Ticker Security Last Change Change % JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 143.65 +1.72 +1.21%LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP. 468.33 -1.03 -0.22%RTX RAYTHEON TECHNOLOGIES CORP. 97.87 +0.22 +0.23%CXW CORECIVIC INC. 10.19 +0.09 +0.89%SOFI SOFI TECHNOLOGIES 7.38 -0.03 -0.40%

A company named CoreCivic Inc., that owns and manages private prisons, could see its business expand dramatically — and its share prices soar — as DeSantis focuses on policies to secure the southern border from migrant surges and the company benefits from government contracting.

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SoFi Technologies makes money processing student loans. A possible lift to its business, Strategas says, will be the end of President Biden’s student-loan forgiveness program under DeSantis. That means more fees for processing those loans. Strategas also predicts that President Joe Biden will announce his plans to run again in 2024 after tonight's State of the Union speech.

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Kenya drafts legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies

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Kenya drafts legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies

Kenya is preparing legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies with a draft proposal open for public feedback until Jan. 24.

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Why Meta had to ‘bend the knee to Trump’ ahead of his inauguration

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Why Meta had to 'bend the knee to Trump' ahead of his inauguration

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Mark Zuckerberg’s announcement this week that Meta would pivot its moderation policies to allow more “free expression” was widely viewed as the company’s latest effort to appease President-elect Donald Trump. 

More than any of its Silicon Valley peers, Meta has taken numerous public steps to make amends with Trump since his election victory in November.

That follows a highly contentious four years between the two during Trump’s first term in office, which ended with Facebook — similar to other social media companies — banning Trump from its platform.

As recently as March, Trump was using his preferred nickname of “Zuckerschmuck” when talking about Meta’s CEO and declaring that Facebook was an “enemy of the people.”

With Meta now positioning itself to be a key player in artificial intelligence, Zuckerberg recognizes the need for White House support as his company builds data centers and pursues policies that will allow it to fulfill its lofty ambitions, according to people familiar with the company’s plans who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.

“Even though Facebook is as powerful as it is, it still had to bend the knee to Trump,” said Brian Boland, a former Facebook vice president, who left the company in 2020.

Meta declined to comment for this article.

In Tuesday’s announcement, Zuckerberg said Meta will end third-party fact-checking, remove restrictions on topics such as immigration and gender identity and bring political content back to users’ feeds. Zuckerberg pitched the sweeping policy changes as key to stabilizing Meta’s content-moderation apparatus, which he said had “reached a point where it’s just too many mistakes and too much censorship.”

The policy change was the latest strategic shift Meta has taken to buddy up with Trump and Republicans since Election Day.

A day earlier, Meta announced that UFC CEO Dana White, a longtime Trump friend, is joining the company’s board.

And last week, Meta announced that it was replacing Nick Clegg, its president of global affairs, with Joel Kaplan, who had been the company’s policy vice president. Clegg previously had a career in British politics with the Liberal Democrats party, including as a deputy prime minister, while Kaplan was a White House deputy chief of staff under former President George W. Bush.

Kaplan, who joined Meta in 2011 when it was still known as Facebook, has longstanding ties to the Republican Party and once worked as a law clerk for the late conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. In December, Kaplan posted photos on Facebook of himself with Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump during their visit to the New York Stock Exchange.

Joel Kaplan, Facebook’s vice president of global policy, on April 17, 2018.

Niall Carson | PA Images | Getty Images

Many Meta employees criticized the policy change internally, with some saying the company is absolving itself of its responsibility to create a safe platform. Current and former employees also expressed concern that marginalized communities could face more online abuse due to the new policy, which is set to take effect over the coming weeks. 

Despite the backlash from employees, people familiar with the company’s thinking said Meta is more willing to make these kinds of moves after laying off 21,000 employees, or nearly a quarter of its workforce, in 2022 and 2023. 

Those cuts affected much of Meta’s civic integrity and trust and safety teams. The civic integrity group was the closest thing the company had to a white-collar union, with members willing to push back against certain policy decisions, former employees said. Since the job cuts, Zuckerberg faces less friction when making broad policy changes, the people said.

Zuckerberg’s overtures to Trump began in the months leading up to the election.

Following the first assassination attempt on Trump in July, Zuckerberg called the photo of Trump raising his fist with blood running down his face “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.”

A month later, Zuckerberg penned a letter to the House Judiciary Committee alleging that the Biden administration had pressured Meta’s teams to censor certain Covid-19 content.

“I believe the government pressure was wrong, and I regret that we were not more outspoken about it,” he wrote. 

After Trump’s presidential victory, Zuckerberg joined several other technology executives who visited the president-elect’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Meta also donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.

On Friday, Meta revealed to its workforce in a memo obtained by CNBC that it intends to shutter several internal programs related to diversity and inclusion in its hiring process, representing another Trump-friendly move.

The previous day, some details of the company’s new relaxed content-moderation guidelines were published by the news site The Intercept, showing the kind of offensive rhetoric that Meta’s new policy would now allow, including statements such as “Migrants are no better than vomit” and “I bet Jorge’s the one who stole my backpack after track practice today. Immigrants are all thieves.”

Recalibrating for Trump

Zuckerberg, who has been dragged to Washington eight times to testify before congressional committees during the last two administrations, wants to be perceived as someone who can work with Trump and the Republican Party, people familiar with the matter said.

Though Meta’s content-policy updates caught many of its employees and fact-checking partners by surprise, a small group of executives were formulating the plans in the aftermath of the U.S. election results. By New Year’s Day, leadership began planning the public announcements of its policy change, the people said. 

Meta typically undergoes major “recalibrations” after prominent U.S. elections, said Katie Harbath, a former Facebook policy director and CEO of tech consulting firm Anchor Change. When the country undergoes a change in power, Meta adjusts its policies to best suit its business and reputational needs based on the political landscape, Harbath said. 

“In 2028, they’ll recalibrate again,” she said.

After the 2016 election and Trump’s first victory, for example, Zuckerberg toured the U.S. to meet people in states he hadn’t previously visited. He published a 6,000-word manifesto emphasizing the need for Facebook to build more community.

The social media company faced harsh criticism about fake news and Russian election interference on its platforms after the 2016 election.

Following the 2020 election, during the heart of the pandemic, Meta took a harder stand on Covid-19 content, with a policy executive saying in 2021 that the “amount of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation that violates our policies is too much by our standards.” Those efforts may have appeased the Biden administration, but it drew the ire of Republicans.

Meta is once again reacting to the moment, Harbath said.

“There wasn’t a business risk here in Silicon Valley to be more right-leaning,” Harbath said.

While Trump has offered few specific policy proposals for his second administration, Meta has plenty at stake.

The White House could create more relaxed AI regulations compared with those in the European Union, where Meta says harsh restrictions have resulted in the company not releasing some of its more advanced AI technologies. Meta, like other tech giants, also needs more massive data centers and cutting-edge computer chips to help train and run their advanced AI models.

“There’s a business benefit to having Republicans win, because they are traditionally less regulatory,” Harbath said.

Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg reacts as he testifies during the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on online child sexual exploitation at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2024. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Meta isn’t alone in trying to cozy up to Trump. But the extreme measures the company is taking reflects a particular level of animus expressed by Trump over the years.

Trump has accused Meta of censorship and has expressed resentment over the company’s two-year suspension of his Facebook and Instagram accounts following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

In July 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social that he intended to “pursue Election Fraudsters at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time,” adding “ZUCKERBUCKS, be careful!” Trump reiterated that statement in his book, “Save America,” writing that Zuckerberg plotted against him during the 2020 election and that the Meta CEO would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if it happened again.

Meta spends $14 million annually on providing personal security for Zuckerberg and his family, according to the company’s 2024 proxy statement. As part of that security, the company analyzes any threats or perceived threats against its CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. Those threats are cataloged, analyzed and dissected by Meta’s multitude of security teams.

After Trump’s comments, Meta’s security teams analyzed how Trump could weaponize the Justice Department and the country’s intelligence agencies against Zuckerberg and what it would cost the company to defend its CEO against a sitting president, said the person, who asked not to be named because of confidentiality.

Meta’s efforts to appease the incoming president bring their own risks.

After Zuckerberg announced the new speech policy Tuesday, Boland, the former executive, was among a number of users who took to Meta’s Threads service to tell their followers that they were quitting Facebook. 

“Last post before deleting,” Boland wrote in his post.

Before the post could be seen by any of his Threads followers, Meta’s content moderation system had taken it down, citing cybersecurity reasons. 

Boland told CNBC in an interview that he couldn’t help but chuckle at the situation. 

“It’s deeply ironic,” Boland said.

— CNBC’s Salvador Rodriguez contributed to this report.

WATCH: Meta is returning to free speech tradition, says Facebook’s former chief privacy officer Chris Kelly

Meta is returning to free speech tradition, says Facebook's former chief privacy officer Chris Kelly

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LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history

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LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of 'most destructive' blazes in modern US history

The fires that have been raging in Los Angeles County this week may be the “most destructive” in modern US history.

In just three days, the blazes have covered tens of thousands of acres of land and could potentially have an economic impact of up to $150bn (£123bn), according to private forecaster Accuweather.

Sky News has used a combination of open-source techniques, data analysis, satellite imagery and social media footage to analyse how and why the fires started, and work out the estimated economic and environmental cost.

More than 1,000 structures have been damaged so far, local officials have estimated. The real figure is likely to be much higher.

“In fact, it’s likely that perhaps 15,000 or even more structures have been destroyed,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather.

These include some of the country’s most expensive real estate, as well as critical infrastructure.

Beachfront properties are left destroyed by the Palisades Fire, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 in Malibu, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Image:
Beachfront properties in Malibu were destroyed by the Palisades fire. Pic: PA

Accuweather has estimated the fires could have a total damage and economic loss of between $135bn and $150bn.

“It’s clear this is going to be the most destructive wildfire in California history, and likely the most destructive wildfire in modern US history,” said Mr Porter.

“That is our estimate based upon what has occurred thus far, plus some considerations for the near-term impacts of the fires,” he added.

The calculations were made using a wide variety of data inputs, from property damage and evacuation efforts, to the longer-term negative impacts from job and wage losses as well as a decline in tourism to the area.

The Palisades fire, which has burned at least 20,000 acres of land, has been the biggest so far.

Sentinel
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades Fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub
Image:
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub

Satellite imagery and social media videos indicate the fire was first visible in the area around Skull Rock, part of a 4.5 mile hiking trail, northeast of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighbourhood.

These videos were taken by hikers on the route at around 10.30am on Tuesday 7 January, when the fire began spreading.

At about the same time, this footage of a plane landing at Los Angeles International Airport was captured. A growing cloud of smoke is visible in the hills in the background – the same area where the hikers filmed their videos.

The area’s high winds and dry weather accelerated the speed that the fire has spread. By Tuesday night, Eaton fire sparked in a forested area north of downtown LA, and Hurst fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.

These images from NASA’s Black Marble tool that detects light sources on the ground show how much the Palisades and Eaton fires grew in less than 24 hours.

 

On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had covered 772 acres. At the time of publication of Friday, the fire had grown to cover nearly 20,500 acres, some 26.5 times its initial size.

The Palisades fire was the first to spark, but others erupted over the following days.

At around 1pm on Wednesday afternoon, the Lidia fire was first reported in Acton, next to the Angeles National Forest north of LA. Smaller than the others, firefighters managed to contain the blaze by 75% on Friday.

Fires map

On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2.40pm local time, according to Ventura County Fire Department, near a place called Victory Trailhead at the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

This footage from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley shows plumes of smoke billowing from the Kenneth fire.

Sky News analysed infrared satellite imagery to show how these fires grew all across LA.

The largest fires are still far from being contained, and have prompted thousands of residents to flee their homes as officials continued to keep large areas under evacuation orders. It’s unclear when they’ll be able to return.

“This is a tremendous loss that is going to result in many people and businesses needing a lot of help, as they begin the very slow process of putting their lives back together and rebuilding,” said Mr Porter.

“This is going to be an event that is going to likely take some people and businesses, perhaps a decade to recover from this fully.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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