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This winter parts of the UK have already been hit by freezing temperatures and heavy snow – but a weather event expected to take place in the coming days has sparked fears the country could soon face an icy blast.

A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is “now likely”, according to forecasters – and could bring the return of bitterly cold conditions before spring.

Sky News weather producer Chris England says “sudden stratospheric warmings can lead to colder conditions over parts of the Northern Hemisphere through their interaction with the jet stream”.

But he warned these high pressure systems which are formed feeding cold air down from the north and east are not guaranteed.

What is a sudden stratospheric warming event?

SSW describes an event when “rapid warming occurs high up in the stratosphere”, according to the Met Office, but it can have consequences in our weather down on the surface in the weeks that follow.

This rapid warming in the stratosphere – between around 10km and 50km above the earth’s surface – is so high we don’t feel it on the ground.

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The event follows a weakening of winds in what’s called the stratospheric polar vortex, high over the Arctic.

“The cold air then descends very rapidly in the polar vortex and this causes the temperature in the stratosphere to rise very rapidly, as much as 50C over only a few days; hence the term sudden stratospheric warming,” the Met Office says.

This event can impact the shape of the jet stream as the cold air sinks – sometimes leading to a long spell of dry, cold weather across the UK and northern Europe.

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Does it happen every year and will it happen this year?

SSW doesn’t happen every year, and when it does, it doesn’t always influence our weather.

According to Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, “there is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring” this year.

The UK has been hit by extreme winter snow events in recent years, for example the so-called Beast from the East – which occurred in 2018.

But just because much of Britain was coated in snow back then due to a link with a SSW event – it doesn’t mean it will happen again this year.

What could it mean for the UK’s weather and when?

As mentioned, a major SSW event can be linked to freezing temperatures such as the ones seen in 2018 – but there are no guarantees.

Prof Scaife says: “Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”

Sky’s England adds: “Other factors such as the distribution of warm and cold areas across the globe also have an influence.

“When they do develop they may push the cold weather across other parts of the world, e.g. China, North America, rather than Europe.

“And even when Europe is impacted, relatively small changes may mean that central and eastern Europe bear the brunt of the cold.”

Read more from Sky News:
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Cold weather alert across England as ‘snow moon’ set to delight sky-gazers

Snow and ice blanket Marine park on the coast at South Shields in the North East. Snow and ice have swept across parts of the UK, with cold wintry conditions set to continue for days. Picture date: Tuesday December 13, 2022.
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Snow and ice blanket Marine Park on the coast at South Shields in the North East in December 2022

So can the UK bank on heavy snow falling in the next few weeks?

In short, no.

Unfortunately, it’s too early to tell how weather forecasts will change following a SSW event.

Current forecasts “are not showing any major cold snap for the UK as a result of the current SSW”, England says.

“That doesn’t mean we won’t have cold spells – it’s cold now, after all, but that’s due to the normal progression of high and low pressure systems and nothing to do with an SSW.”

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Police separate anti-immigration and anti-racism protesters across the country

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Police separate anti-immigration and anti-racism protesters across the country

Protesters have gathered across the country as groups demonstrated against asylum seeker housing and were met by anti-racism campaigners.

Demonstrations under the Abolish Asylum System slogan were held in England, Scotland and Wales, including in Bristol, Exeter, Tamworth, Cannock, Aberdeen, Mold, Perth, Nuneaton, Liverpool, Wakefield, Newcastle, Horley and Canary Wharf.

Counter-protests were also organised by campaign group Stand Up to Racism.

Police officers scuffle with demonstrators during protests at Castle Park in Bristol. Pic: PA
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Police officers scuffle with demonstrators during protests at Castle Park in Bristol. Pic: PA

In Bristol, mounted police separated the two groups in the Castle Park, with officers scuffling with protesters.

Police kept around 200 anti-immigration protesters draped in English flags away from roughly 50 Stand Up to Racism protesters in Horley, Surrey.

People take part in a protest outside the Sheraton Four Points Hotel in Horley, Surrey. Pic: PA
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People take part in a protest outside the Sheraton Four Points Hotel in Horley, Surrey. Pic: PA

One man, wearing a West Ham United football shirt, was held by police as he yelled: “You’re not welcome here, you’re not welcome here, you’re not welcome here” at anti-racism protesters.

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More on Migrant Crossings

Anti-immigration protesters also chanted: “Tommy, Tommy, Tommy, Tommy Robinson” in support of the far-right activist, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon.

A confrontation between a protester and a counter-protester outside the Sheraton Four Points Hotel in Horley, Surrey. Pic: PA
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A confrontation between a protester and a counter-protester outside the Sheraton Four Points Hotel in Horley, Surrey. Pic: PA

The anti-racism protesters chanted “say it loud, say it clear, refugees are welcome here” and held signs calling for solidarity and to “stop deportations”.

The Stand Up to Racism protesters were shepherded into a smaller area as they continued to chant: “No hate, no fear, refugees are welcome here”, which was met with “No they’re f****** not” from the other side of the street.

People inside the hotel look at protesters outside the Radisson Hotel in Perth. Pic: PA
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People inside the hotel look at protesters outside the Radisson Hotel in Perth. Pic: PA

In Perth, protesters gathered outside the Radisson Hotel.

The anti-migration protesters held up signs with slogans such as “Perth is full – empty the hotels” and “get them out”.

People take part in a counter-protest outside the Radisson Hotel in Perth. Pic: PA
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People take part in a counter-protest outside the Radisson Hotel in Perth. Pic: PA

Stand Up to Racism Scotland said it had achieved “victory” in Perth, with more than 200 gathering to oppose the Abolish Asylum System demonstration.

In Liverpool, a dispersal order was issued to try and contain the protests.

Saturday’s events come amid continued tension around the use of the hotels for asylum seekers.

Regular protests had been held outside the Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex, which started after an asylum seeker housed there was charged with sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl on 10 July.

Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, 38, was charged with trying to kiss a teenage girl and denies the allegations. He is due to stand trial later this month.

In the wake of those protests, Epping Forest District Council sought and won an interim High Court injunction to stop migrants from being accommodated there – a decision which the government is seeking permission to appeal.

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Reform UK’s new immigration plans would’ve been extreme just a few years ago

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Reform UK's new immigration plans would've been extreme just a few years ago

Mass deportations. Prison camps. Quitting the Refugee Convention and the UN Convention on Torture.

A shrug of the shoulders at the idea of the UK sending asylum seekers back to places like Afghanistan or Eritrea, where they could be tortured or executed.

“I’m really sorry, but we can’t be responsible for everything that happens in the whole of the world,” says Nigel Farage.

“Who is our priority?”

The Reform UK leader has been setting out his party’s new plans to address illegal migration in an interview with The Times newspaper – a set of policies, and a use of language, which would surely have been seen as extreme just a few years ago.

Only last autumn the Reform leader repeatedly shied away from the concept of “mass deportations”, describing the idea as “a political impossibility”.

But now he’s embraced Trump-style immigration rhetoric.

More on Asylum

It’s not surprising that Reform want to capitalise on the outpouring of public anger over the use of hotels to house asylum seekers. The policy was started by the previous Conservative government, in response to housing shortages – and Labour has failed to make significant progress on its promise to stop it.

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Asylum hotel protests set to rise

But all the major parties have shifted firmly to the right on this issue.

There’s been very little political criticism of the aggressiveness of Farage’s policy suggestions, and the premise that the UK should no longer offer sanctuary to anyone who arrives here illegally.

The Tory response has been to complain that he’s just copying the ideas they didn’t quite get round to implementing before calling the general election.

“Four months late, this big reveal is just recycling many ideas the Conservatives have already announced,” said Chris Philp MP, the shadow home secretary.

“Labour’s border crisis does urgently need to be fixed with tough and radical measures, but only the Conservatives have done – and will continue to do – the detailed work to deliver a credible plan that will actually work in practice.”

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Certainly, the ambition to arrest and deport everyone who arrives in a small boat – regardless of whether or not they have legitimate grounds for asylum – has clear echoes of the Tories’ Rwanda policy.

Despite spending £700m on the controversial idea, only four volunteers were ever sent to Kigali before it was cancelled by Sir Keir Starmer, who branded it a gimmick.

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Reform putting ‘wheels in motion’ for migrant hotel legal challenges

Labour have suggested they’ve diverted Home Office resources that were freed up by that decision into processing asylum claims more quickly and increasing deportations.

They’re hoping tougher action against the criminal gangs and the new “one in one out” deal with France will help deter the number of people crossing the Channel in small boats in the first place, currently at record levels.

But rather than offering any defence of the principle of offering asylum to genuine refugees – Labour’s Angela Eagle MP, the border security minister, has also focused on the feasibility of Farage’s policies.

“Nigel Farage is simply plucking numbers out of the air, another pie in the sky policy from a party that will say anything for a headline,” she said.

“We are getting a grip of the broken asylum system. Making sure those with no right to be here are removed or deported.”

Even the Liberal Democrats have taken a similar approach.

“This plan sums up Nigel Farage perfectly, as like him it doesn’t offer any real solutions,” they said.

“Whilst Farage continues to stoke division, we Liberal Democrats are more interested in delivering for our local communities.”

It’s been left to the Refugee Council to defend the principle of asylum.

“After the horrors of the Second World War, Britain and its allies committed to protecting those fleeing persecution,” said CEO Enver Solomon.

“The Refugee Convention was our collective vow of ‘never again’ – a legal framework ensuring that people who come to our country seeking safety get a fair chance to apply for asylum.

“That commitment remains vital today. Whether escaping conflict in Sudan or repression under regimes like the Taliban, people still need protection.

“Most find refuge in neighbouring countries. But some will seek sanctuary in Europe, including Britain.

“We can meet this challenge by upholding a fair, managed system that determines who qualifies for protection and who does not.”

But with Reform leading in the polls, and protests outside hotels across the country – politicians of all stripes are under pressure to respond to public frustration over the issue.

A recent YouGov poll found half of voters now believe immigration over the last ten years has been mostly bad for the country – double the figure just three years ago.

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While the government has made some progress in reducing the cost of asylum hotels – down from £8.3m a day in 2023/4 to £5.77m a day in 2024/5 – the overall numbers accommodated in this way have gone up by 8% since Labour took charge, thanks to the surge in new claims.

Sir Keir has previously said he won’t make a promise he can’t keep.

But current efforts to end the use of asylum hotels by 2029 are clearly not working.

That’s a credibility gap Farage is more than ready to exploit.

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Three people in a life-threatening condition after ‘arson attack’ at restaurant

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Three people in a life-threatening condition after 'arson attack' at restaurant

Three people are in a life-threatening condition after a suspected arson attack at a restaurant in Ilford, say police.

Five people – three women and two men – were injured in the fire, which broke out shortly after 9pm on Friday at Indian Aroma on Woodford Avenue, Gants Hill.

No arrests have been made.

Hospital porter Edward Thawe, 43, went to help with his son after hearing screams from his nearby home.

Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures
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Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures

He described the scene as “horrible” and “more than scary and the sort of thing that you don’t want to look at twice”.

He said: “I heard screaming and people saying they had called the police.”

He said he saw a woman and a severely burned man who may have been customers.

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He said the man’s “whole body was burnt”, including his shirt, but he was still wearing his trousers.

After being treated at the scene by paramedics from the London Ambulance Service, the victims were taken to hospital.

Indian Aroma in Ilford after the fire. Pic: UK News and Pictures
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Indian Aroma in Ilford after the fire. Pic: UK News and Pictures

Nine others were able to get out beforehand, London Fire Brigade (LFB) said in a statement.

“The brigade’s control officers received seven calls about the fire and mobilised crews from Ilford, Hainault, Leytonstone and Woodford fire stations to the scene. The fire was extinguished by 10.32pm,” said an LFB spokesperson.

“We understand this incident will cause concern within the community. My team of specialist detectives are working at speed to piece the incident together,” said Detective Chief Inspector Mark Rogers, of the Met’s Central Specialist Crime North unit.

“Locals can expect to see a large police presence in the area. If you have any concerns, please speak to those officers on the ground.”

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The London Ambulance Service told Sky News: “We sent resources to the scene, including ambulance crews, an advanced paramedic, an incident response officer and paramedics from our hazardous area response team.

Indian Aroma in Ilford after the fire. Pic: UK News and Pictures
Image:
Indian Aroma in Ilford after the fire. Pic: UK News and Pictures

“We treated five people for burns and smoke inhalation. We took two patients to a major trauma centre and three others to local hospitals.”

Health secretary Wes Streeting, who is the MP for Ilford North, posted on X to thank the emergency services for their response to the fire.

He also asked his constituents to “please avoid the area for now”.

Anyone with information is urged to contact the Met via 101, quoting 7559/22AUG. If you wish to remain anonymous, please speak with Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

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