Sanctions on Russian oil are having the ‘intended effect,’ IEA says
Russia announced that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March after the West slapped price caps on Russian oil and oil products.
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Bans and price caps targeting Russian oil are having the “intended effect” despite surprisingly resilient production and exports in recent months, according to Toril Bosoni from the International Energy Agency.
The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil products came into effect on Feb. 5, building on the $60 oil price cap implemented by the G-7 (Group of Seven) major economies on Dec. 5.
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Bosoni, who’s head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Wednesday that Russian oil production and exports had held up “much better than expected” in recent months. This is because Moscow has been able to reroute much of the crude that previously went to Europe to new markets in Asia.
China, India and Turkey in particular ramped up purchases to partially offset the 400,000-barrel-per-day fall in Russian crude exports to Europe in January, according to the IEA’s oil market report published Wednesday. Some Russian oil is also still making its way to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline and Bulgaria, both of which are exempt from EU embargo.
As such, Russian net oil output fell by only 160,000 barrels a day from pre-war levels in January, with 8.2 million barrels of oil shipped to markets worldwide, the IEA said. The agency added that G-7 price caps may also be helping to bolster Russian exports to some extent, as Moscow is forced to sell its Urals oil at a lower price to those countries complying with the caps, which potentially makes it more attractive than other sources of crude.
Despite Russia’s substantial export volumes, Bosoni argued that this did not mean the sanctions had failed.
“The price cap was put in place to allow for Russian oil to continue to flow to market, but at the same time reducing Russian revenues. Even though Russian production is coming to market, we’re seeing that the revenues that Russia receives from its oil and gas have really come down,” Bosoni said.
“For instance in January, export revenues for Russia were about $13 billion, that’s down 36% from a year ago,” she said. “Russian fiscal receipts from the oil industry is down 48% in the year, so in that sense we can say that the price cap is having its intended effect.”
She also highlighted the growing discrepancy between Russian Urals crude prices and international benchmark Brent crude. The former averaged $49.48 per barrel in January, according to the Russian Finance Ministry, while Brent was trading above $85 a barrel on Thursday.
Importantly, Russia’s 2023 budget is based on a Urals price average of $70.10/bbl, so plunging fiscal revenues from oil operations year-on-year are leaving a substantial hole in public finances.
Bosoni also noted that the indications are that Moscow may not be able to reallocate the trade of oil products in the same way as it has crude exports, which is why the IEA expects exports and production to fall further in the coming months.
“We’re seeing now some reallocation of trade of the products but we haven’t seen the same shift as we saw for crude, which is why we’re expecting Russian exports to fall and production to fall,” she said.
Production cut
Russia announced last week that it would cut production by 500,000 barrels a day in March in response to the latest round of Western bans, amounting to around 5% of its latest crude output.
However, Bosoni said this was in line with the IEA’s expectations.
“This is included in our balances that still see the markets relatively well supplied through the first half of the year, so we’re not too concerned about this decline, we think there’s enough supply to meet demand for the coming months,” she said.
“The question will be when summer comes around, refinery activity picks up to meet summer driving and China rebound really takes off, this is when we can see the market tighten really through the rest of the year.”
In its report, the IEA suggested the production cut may be less about retaliation and more an attempt by Moscow to shore up pricing by curbing output rather than continuing to sell at a large discount to countries complying with the G-7 price caps.
Global oil demand
Global oil demand growth is expected to pick up in 2023 after a sharp slowdown in the second half of 2022, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the projected increase.
The IEA said a pronounced uptick in air traffic in recent weeks highlighted the central role of jet fuel deliveries in 2023 growth. Oil deliveries are expected to surge by 1.1 million barrels a day to hit 7.2 million barrels a day over the course of 2023, with total demand hitting a record 101.9 million barrels a day.
The effects of the West’s latest oil embargo and price cap will be a key factor in meeting that demand growth, the IEA report noted.
“So will Beijing’s stance on domestic refinery activity and product exports amid its reopening. New refineries in Africa and the Middle East as well as China are expected to step in to cater for the growth in refined product demand,” it said.
“If the price cap on products is half as successful as the crude cap, product markets may well weather the storm – but more crude supplies would be required to prevent renewed stock draws later in the year.”
Isuzu is giving Red Bull electrified wings – the iconic drinks company is officially the first to put the production version of its new-for-2025 Isuzu NRR-EV medium duty electric box truck to work in North America.
Deployed by Red Bull North America, these first-ever customer Isuzu NRR-EV medium duty trucks are busy delivering cans of Red Bull products throughout Southern California with zero tailpipe emissions, marking the first time the best-selling low-cab/cabover box truck brand in the US can make such a claim.
“Today marks a major milestone for the industry and for us. Watching the NRR-EV evolve from a concept to a viable operating product is a big deal,” explains Shaun Skinner, President of Isuzu Commercial Truck of America. “Our teams and our clients have put so much time and effort into making this happen, and it speaks to our teamwork and dedication to more sustainable transportation solutions. It is no longer just a plan, we have zero-emission trucks serving our customers’ needs!”
The NRR-EV is available with a number of different battery configurations, ranging from three 20 kWh battery packs (60 kWh total) up to nine 20 kWh battery packs, with five and seven pack options in between. The nine-pack version is good for up to 235 miles of range with a 19,500 lb. GVWR. The batteries, regardless of configuration, send power to a 150 kW (200 hp) electric motor with 380 lb-ft. of torque available at 0 rpm.
For “Red Bull” duty, the Isuzu trucks ship with a 100 kWh total battery capacity, and are fitted a lightweight, all-aluminum 6-bay beverage body, the vehicle’s design maintains its cargo capacity. The NRR-EV’s 19,500 lb. GVWR (Class 5) chassis, combined with the lightweight body and “big enough” battery spec provides Red Bull’s delivery drivers a hefty, 9,000 lb. payload.
Isuzu began assembling NRR-EV trucks at its Charlotte, Michigan assembly plant in August 2024. Customer deliveries are set to begin nationally in Q1 of 2025.
Electrek’s Take
Isuzu’s N-series trucks are everywhere – and for good reason. They’re dependable, they’re affordable, and they have a nationwide network of GM dealers supporting them. I am a huge fan of these trucks, and can’t wait to sample the electric version from behind the wheel.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Isuzu.
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Hyundai is gearing up to launch its first all-electric minivan. Production is set to begin next year, and the EV minivan is expected to play a key role in its global expansion. Here’s what to expect.
Hyundai will launch its first EV minivan in 2025
The Staria is Hyundai’s successor to the Starex, its multi-purpose vehicle (MPV), launched in 2021. Like its replacement, the Staria is offered in a minivan, minibus, van, pickup, and several other configurations like limousines and ambulances.
Although the Staria was launched with only diesel and gas-powered powertrain options, Hyundai added its first hybrid model in February.
Hyundai will introduce the Staria Electric, its first electric minivan, next year. In March, Hyundai unveiled its new ST1 electric business van, which is based on the Staria. However, the minivan will get its own EV model in 2025. The ST1 is Hyundai’s first commercial EV. It’s available in refrigerated van and basic chassis cab options.
Hyundai is already building gas-powered and hybrid Staria models at its Ulsan plant in Korea, but it is preparing to begin producing the EV version.
According to the Korean media outlet Newsis, sources close to the matter on Friday said Hyundai will begin converting a production line (Line 1) at its Ulsan Plant 4 for Staria Electric around January 25, 2024.
The expansion is part of Hyundai’s broader plan to introduce 21 electric vehicles by 2030, accounting for over 2 million in sales.
A report from The Korean Economic Daily in June claimed Hyundai would expand Staria EV production into Europe starting in the first half of 2026. European-made models will be sold domestically and overseas, like in Australia and Thailand. Hyundai aims to sell 15,000 to 20,000 of the EV model annually.
The Staria Electric will be powered by Hyundai’s fourth-generation 84 kWh EV batteries and will have over 10% more capacity than the ST1.
Hyundai sold 37,769 Starias through the first 11 months of 2024. Last year, Hyundai Staria sales reached 39,780, including domestic and export sales. By the end of the year, Staria sales are expected to exceed 40,000 for the first time.
Hyundai’s sister company also has big plans to expand its commercial business with a new lineup of EVs based on its PBV (Platform Beyond Vehicle). Its first electric van, the PV5, was spotted earlier this year as a potential Volkswagen ID.Buzz challenger.
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Just a year after it hit the 1 million electric mile mark, Schneider National ($SNDR) and its unmistakable orange semi trucks have thrown down the gauntlet – adding more than 5 million miles to its BEV tally and crossing the 6 million electric mile mark!
The company says this latest all-electric milestone means Schneider has cut more than 20 million pounds of harmful carbon emissions. A total it says is equivalent to removing more than 2,100 gas-powered passenger cars from the road.
“Reaching 6 million zero-emission miles is a testament to our steadfast dedication to sustainability and innovation,” said Schneider President and CEO, Mark Rourke. “Leading the way in adopting electric vehicle technology not only benefits the environment but also serves as an example of the broad service capabilities and flexibility we can offer to customers.”
Schneider operates one of the largest fleets of Freightliner eCascadia electric semi trucks in the country, with fully 92 of the BEVs deployed (so far). The trucks have been operating in and around the ports of Southern California, where they have significantly reduced emissions and contributed to cleaner air quality while reliably transporting freight and saving SNDR money.
“Schneider is a great example of the kind of forward-thinking entrepreneurship our industry needs,” says David Carson, Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing at DTNA. “They’ve achieved over 6 million zero emission miles, which is a reminder for us all to keep working on overcoming challenges together on the path to zero emissions. At DTNA, we’re committed to the shift to zero emissions, alongside pioneers like Schneider, who are showing us what’s possible.”
Fifty of Schneider’ 92 eCascadias were funded by JETSI – a California-wide initiative working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Of the remaining 42 five are jointly funded by the EPA’s FY18 Targeted Airshed Grant, seven are funded by the Volkswagen Environmental Mitigation Trust, and 30 are funded by California’s HVIP incentive program.
Electrek’s Take
Schneider is among the many global fleets that are proving the reliability and efficacy of battery-electric semi trucks every day, racking up millions of miles faster than many of the nay-sayers thought would be possible. The only real question facing the world of electric trucking now is whether the legacy brands like Freightliner and Volvo have established an insurmountable lead over Tesla.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Schneider, via BusinessWire.
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