Taxpayers’ Bulb bailout cost plunges after Octopus supply deal with government
The cost to taxpayers of rescuing the biggest residential energy supplier to collapse during the recent industry crisis has plunged – a rare glimmer of good news after two years of turmoil.
Sky News has learnt that the latest figures sourced from insiders suggest that the demise of Bulb, which became insolvent in November 2021, will have been far less costly than forecast.
According to industry figures close to the situation, the bill to taxpayers between the timing of Bulb’s special administration and its takeover by Octopus Energy in December totalled £1.45bn.
However, executives close to the buyer are now said to believe that the government is expected to make a profit of up to £1.2bn on the supply of energy to Bulb between the date of the takeover and the end of March.
This unexpected windfall for the state has been caused by the difference between the wholesale prices paid by the government – which have plunged in recent months – and the fixed price, set at the level of the current industry cap, paid by Octopus to obtain that energy.
Sources said that dynamic was likely to reduce the overall cost of the Bulb bailout to several hundred million pounds, although the ultimate figure remains subject to change.
On a per customer basis, that would make the Bulb rescue cheaper than some of the supplier of last resort (SOLR) deals struck with Ofgem, the energy regulator, during the last two years.
Octopus Energy was appointed to take on Bulb, the first energy supplier to be put under ‘special administration’
Bulb, with more than 1.5m customers, was by far the largest residential energy player to collapse as wholesale prices soared.
At the time, it was the UK’s seventh-biggest gas and electricity supplier.
The reduced taxpayer bill may be relevant in the context of judicial reviews lodged by rival energy suppliers including Centrica, the owner of British Gas, which alleged that the sale of Bulb to Octopus Energy had been unfairly handled.
A three-day hearing has been scheduled to hear the suppliers’ challenged beginning on 28 February.
On Thursday, Centrica sparked a new political row when it reported record annual profits of over £3bn.
In December, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) said it had been advised by Bulb’s special administrator to set an upper limit for the post-takeover funding facility of £4.5bn.
“The £4.5bn figure represents an estimated upper limit of the support based on forecasted energy costs during the period until 31 March 2023, which reflects the current volatility in global energy prices, BEIS said at the time.
Greg Jackson is Octopus Energy’s chief executive
“The extent of government support could be lower than £4.5bn, depending on energy prices this winter.”
The £4.5bn estimate was in addition to the estimated £1.45bn pre-sale cost to taxpayers, but the government’s fiscal watchdog – the Office for Budget Responsibility – went even further, suggesting that the Bulb bailout could ultimately cost the public purse as much as £6.5bn.
In a more recent statement provided to Sky News, a government spokesman said: “The sale of Bulb to Octopus Energy concluded on 20 December 2022 and the transfer of customers is now in progress. Ensuring that we get the best outcome for Bulb’s customers and the British taxpayer remains our priority.
“We worked with Special Administrators to ensure fair and open competition to give Bulb’s 1.5 million customers much needed reassurance, while providing best value for taxpayers.
“The government will provide the remaining funding necessary to ensure that the special administration is wound up in a way that protects customers’ energy supply. We will recoup these costs at a later date.”
As part of the sale to Octopus, it is said to have agreed to pay between £100m and £200m to take on Bulb’s customer base, with a separate profit-share agreement giving the government a return for several years on earnings from Bulb customers.
An Octopus Energy spokesperson said: “Octopus always said this is a fair deal and good value for taxpayers.
“It’s becoming increasingly clear how good a deal the government have got.”
Sir Keir Starmer has said his government stands ready to use industrial policy to “shelter British business from the storm” after Donald Trump’s new 10% tariff kicked in.
The UK was among a number of countries hit with the lowest import duty rate following the president’s announcement on 2 April – which he called ‘Liberation Day’, while other nations, such as Vietnam, Cambodia and China face much higher US levies.
But a global trade war will hurt the UK’s open economy.
The prime minister said “these new times demand a new mentality”, after the 10% tax on British imports into America came into force on Saturday. A 25% US levy on all foreign car imports was introduced on Thursday.
It comes as Jaguar Land Rover announced it would “pause” shipments to the US for a month, as firms grapple with the new taxes.
On Saturday, the car manufacturer said it was working to “address the new trading terms” and was looking to “develop our mid to longer-term plans”.
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Jobs fears as Jaguar halts shipments
Referring to the tariffs, Sir Keir said “the immediate priority is to keep calm and fight for the best deal”.
Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, he said that in the coming days “we will turbocharge plans that will improve our domestic competitiveness”, adding: “We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm.”
It is believed a number of announcements could be made soon as ministers look to encourage growth.
NI contribution rate for employers goes up
From Sunday, the rate of employer NICs (national insurance contributions) increased from 13.8% to 15%.
At the same time, firms will also pay more because the government lowered the salary threshold at which companies start paying NICs from £9,100 to £5,000.
Also, the FTSE 100 of leading UK companies had its worst day of trading since the start of the pandemic on Friday, with banks among some of the firms to suffer the sharpest losses.
Sir Keir said: “This week, the government will do everything necessary to protect Britain’s national interest. Because when global economic sands are shifting, our laser focus on delivering for Britain will not. And these new times demand a new mentality.”
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Trump defiant despite markets
UK spared highest tariff rates
Some of the highest rates have been applied to “worst offender” countries including some in Southeast Asia. Imports from Cambodia will be subject to a 49% tariff, while those from Vietnam will face a 46% rate. Chinese goods will be hit with a 34% tariff.
Imports from France will have a 20% tariff, the rate which has been set for European Union nations. These will come into effect on 9 April.
Read more:
Red wall on Wall Street – but Trump undeterred
How will UK respond to Trump’s tariffs?
Sir Keir has been speaking to foreign leaders on the phone over the weekend, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, to discuss the tariff changes.
A Downing Street spokesperson said of the conversation between Sir Keir and Mr Macron: “They agreed that a trade war was in nobody’s interests but nothing should be off the table and that it was important to keep business updated on developments.
“The prime minister and president also shared their concerns about the global economic and security impact, particularly in Southeast Asia.”
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Trump’s warning
Mr Trump has warned Americans the tariffs “won’t be easy”, but urged them to “hang tough”.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said: “We are bringing back jobs and businesses like never before.
“Already, more than FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS OF INVESTMENT, and rising fast!
“THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic.”
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