The breakup of the UK is “at stake” if a new deal on post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland is not reached, a senior DUP politician warned.
Sammy Wilson MP said his party will continue with its protest at Stormont if EU rules aren’t removed in the region – saying this threatens Northern Ireland’s place in the union.
This has been a key sticking point for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is battling to reach a new settlement with Brussels to fix issues with the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol.
The mechanism was agreed as part of the Brexit deal to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland – which all parties agreed was necessary to preserve peace.
But because the Republic is in the EU, it means traders in Northern Ireland have to comply with single market rules, creating friction on the flow of goods between the region and the rest of the UK.
Mr Wilson told Sky News the DUP wants Northern Ireland to be “treated in the exactly the same way as the rest of the United Kingdom. In other words, that the laws which apply in Northern Ireland are UK laws, not EU laws”.
He added: “Essentially if a deal is agreed which still keeps us within the EU Single Market, as ministers in the Northern Ireland Assembly we would be required by law to implement that deal.
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“And we’re not going to do that because we believe that such an arrangement is designed to take us out of the United Kingdom and indeed would take us out of the United Kingdom, because increasingly we would have to agree EU laws which diverge from UK laws and in doing so would separate our own country from the rest of the United Kingdom.”
Mr Wilson said the prime minister has a choice whether to “protect the union or the European Union”.
“It’s unreasonable to ask unionists to participate in an arrangement which is designed for the break-up of the union, and that’s what’s at stake here. And that’s why this is a historic moment for the prime minister,” he said.
Asked if he thought there would be a deal this week, as reports have suggested, he said: “No I don’t. He (Mr Sunak) realises that there are barriers and hills to climb. He knows the kind of issues that have to be dealt with. I hope he does go into negotiations with a full understanding of what is required.”
No ‘final deal’ yet
Image: The NI Protocol has effectively created a customs border in the Irish Sea
Downing Street has kept quiet about the details of what could be in the new deal.
On Monday, the prime minister’s official spokesperson said negotiations were continuing to resolve the outstanding issues and “you will hear our position should a deal be agreed”.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris and the European Commission’s Maros Sefcovic will hold talks by video link on Monday afternoon.
The PM’s spokesman insisted there was not yet a “final deal” – and refused to say whether MPs will get to vote on it should there be one.
It comes amid mounting concerns a Tory civil war will stop an agreement getting over the line.
Pressure mounts on Sunak
Veteran Tory Eurosceptic Sir Bernard Jenkin said that any deal which did not lead to a return to powersharing at the Stormont Assembly by the DUP – which walked out in protest at the protocol early last year – would be “completely disastrous”.
However, ex-justice secretary and Brexit critic David Gauke said the DUP “cannot accept any realistically negotiable outcome and nor can some Tory MPs because they’re purists or opportunists”.
“He has to do a deal without them,” he tweeted.
It is understood Mr Sunak’s officials held talks with their Brussels counterparts on Sunday on how to give local politicians a greater say in the application of EU law in the region, addressing what unionists call the “democratic deficit”.
While it is thought the EU and UK are close to signing off a deal that would reduce protocol red tape on the movement of goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, there is no expectation that Brussels is willing to agree to end the application of EU law in the region.
The EU contends that a fundamental part of the protocol – namely that Northern Ireland traders can sell freely into the European single market – is dependent on the operation of EU rules in the region.
What is the Brexit deal being discussed between UK and EU?
The talks that are ongoing are about part of the existing Brexit deal that relates to Northern Ireland.
Dubbed the “Northern Ireland Protocol”, it was agreed with the EU by Boris Johnson in 2020 – alongside the wider trade and cooperation treaty.
The point of it is to avoid a hard physical border on the island of Ireland – the only place where there is a land frontier between the UK and EU.
All parties agreed this was necessary to preserve peace on the island, and the protocol does this by placing Northern Ireland in a far tighter relationship with the EU, compared with the rest of the UK (because the Republic of Ireland is in the EU).
This led to goods travelling into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK being subject to EU import checks – effectively turning the Irish Sea into a trade border, which former prime minister Boris Johnson promised would not happen.
Unionists say this puts Northern Ireland at an economic disadvantage while threatening its place in the UK – and are refusing to cooperate with forming a powersharing government as a result.
There’s also concern over a so-called “democratic deficit” whereby Northern Ireland takes on rules from Brussels that it has no say over.
The role played by the European Court of Justice is a big sticking point: Because Northern Ireland is still subject to EU rules, Brussels believes its court should have a heavy involvement in resolving disputes.
But the DUP and some Conservative MPs see this as an erosion of the UK’s sovereignty and incompatible with the aims of Brexit.
Downing Street has kept quiet about the details of what could be in the new deal – but it is expected to include measures that reduce red tape on goods travelling to Northern Ireland and the UK, as well as some sort of compromise on the role of the ECJ.
There may be a “green lane” and “red lane” system to separate goods destined for Northern Ireland from those at risk of being transported to the Republic and on to the EU, which should reduce the need for physical checks and paperwork.
There could potentially be a mechanism whereby the ECJ can only decide on a dispute after a referral from a separate arbitration panel or a Northern Irish court.
The big unknown is whether the DUP will support the deal. The party has come up with seven “tests” that it will apply to any deal when deciding whether to back it, including no checks on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and no border in the Irish Sea.
If they don’t back a deal and continue their protest at Stormont – then a government in Northern Ireland can’t be formed.
That’s because the DUP is one of two parties that shares power in the devolved government in Northern Ireland – an arrangement made under the Good Friday Agreement which ended decades of violence in Northern Ireland.
Because the DUP are boycotting the Northern Ireland Assembly, this has meant the democratic institutions that are supposed to be running public services in Northern Ireland and representing voters haven’t been functioning properly for more than a year.
Pressure on Mr Sunak is mounting after his predecessor-but-one made a weekend intervention calling for him to take a tougher line with the EU.
A source close to Mr Johnson said his view was that “it would be a great mistake to drop the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill” – which would empower the UK to scrap parts of the treaty without the EU’s permission.
A senior government official indicated that a successful outcome of the negotiations would mean the controversial legislation – tabled at Westminster under Mr Johnson’s leadership but paused when Mr Sunak entered No 10 – would no longer be needed.
But some Tories quickly sided with the former prime minister, with Conservative former cabinet minister Simon Clarke and Lord Frost – who negotiated Mr Johnson’s original Brexit deal – urging the government to push ahead with the protocol bill.
Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt also said Mr Johnson’s warning was “not entirely unhelpful”, while Home Secretary Suella Braverman said on Monday that the legislation was “one of the biggest tools” at the government’s disposal for “solving” the issues in the Irish Sea.
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Boris Johnson is bitterly opposed to Rishi Sunak’s plans to abandon the NI Protocol Bill
Labour will vote with government on protocol
On Monday Sir Keir Starmer repeated that the opposition would back the government to get any deal through.
Speaking to reporters during a visit to Thurrock in Essex, the Labour leader said: “There is a window of opportunity to move forward…the question now is whether the prime minister is strong enough to get it through his own backbenches.
“What I have said on Northern Ireland, the national interest comes first. So we will put party politics to one side. We will vote with the government and so the prime minister doesn’t have to rely on his backbenches.”
The Trump-Putin summit is pitched as “transparent” but it’s difficult to find any path to peace right now.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has reduced it to a “listening exercise” where Donald Trump will seek a “better understanding” of the situation.
There isn’t much to understand – Russia wants territory, Ukraine isn’t ceding it – but Ms Levitt rejects talk of them “tempering expectations”.
It’s possible to be both hopeful and measured, she says, because Mr Trump wants peace but is only meeting one side on Friday.
It’s the fact that he’s only meeting Vladimir Putin that concerns European leaders, who fear Ukraine could be side-lined by any Trump-Putin pact.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims Mr Putin wants the rest of Donetsk and, in effect, the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
He’s ruled out surrendering that because it would rob him of key defence lines and leave Kyiv vulnerable to future offensives.
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‘Steps have been taken to remedy the situation’ in Pokrovsk
European leaders – including Sir Keir Starmer – will hold online talks with Mr Zelenskyy twice on Wednesday, on either side of a virtual call with Mr Trump and US Vice President JD Vance.
Their concerns may be getting through, hence the White House now framing the summit as a cautious fact-finding exercise and nothing more.
The only thing we really learned from the latest news conference is that the first Trump-Putin meeting in six years will be in Anchorage.
A White House official later confirmed it would be at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, a US military facility.
Any agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin when they meet on Friday could leave Ukraine in an impossible position after three years of brutal, grinding war for survival.
There has been speculation the two leaders could agree a so-called ‘land for peace’ deal which could see Ukraine instructed to give up territory in exchange for an end to the fighting.
That would effectively be an annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory by Russia by force.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyysaid on Tuesday evening that MrPutin wants the rest of Donetsk – and in effect the entire eastern Donbas region – as part of a ceasefire plan.
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Sky’s Michael Clarke explains in more detail what territories are under possible threat.
But the Ukrainian leader said Kyiv would reject the proposal and explained that such a move would deprive them of defensive lines and open the way for Moscow to conduct further offensives.
Russia currently occupies around 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea and the parts of the Donbas region it seized prior to the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
In this story, Sky News speaks to experts about what the highly-anticipated meeting between the Russian and American presidents could mean for the battlefield.
Image: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska. Pic: Reuters
A ceasefire along the frontline?
The range of outcomes for the Trump-Putin meeting is broad, with anything from no progress to a ceasefire possible.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, for instance, said this week that he has “many fears and a lot of hope” for what could come out of it.
Military analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News that the summit “certainly won’t create peace, but it might create a ceasefire in place if Putin decides to be flexible”.
“So far he hasn’t shown any flexibility at all,” he added.
A ceasefire along the frontline, with minimal withdrawals on both sides, would be “structurally changing” and an “astonishing outcome”, he said.
However he doubts this will happen. Mr Clarke said a favourable outcome could be the two sides agreeing to a ceasefire that would start in two weeks time (for instance) with threats of sanctions from the US if Russia or Ukraine breaks it.
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President Zelenskyy: ‘Path to peace must be determined together’
Will Ukraine be forced to give up territory to Russia?
While President Trump’s attitude to Ukrainian resistance appears possibly more favourable from his recent comments, it’s still possible that Kyiv could be asked to give up territory as part of any agreement with Russia.
Moscow has been focussed on four oblasts (regions) of Ukraine: Luhansk and Donetsk (the Donbas), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
President Putin’s forces control almost all of Luhansk, but about 30% of the others remain in Ukrainian hands and are fiercely contested.
“Russian rates of advance have picked up in the last month, but even though they are making ground, it would still take years (three or more) at current rates to capture all this territory,” Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the RUSI thinktank, told Sky News.
He says it “wouldn’t be surprising” if Russia tried to acquire the rest of the Donbas as part of negotiations – something that is “highly unattractive” for Ukraine that could leave them vulnerable in future.
This would include surrendering some of the ‘fortress belt’ – a network of four settlements including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – that has held back Russian forces for 11 years.
Michael Clarke said this might well satisfy President Putin “for now”, but many believe that he would return for the rest of Ukraine – possibly after President Trump leaves office.
It’s unclear if President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could accept such a painful concession – or indeed, survive it politically – or if the wider Ukrainian public would support it in return for a pause in the fighting.
Would Russia have to return any territory to Ukraine?
The White House appears to have been briefing that it might, though the situation is very unclear.
Mr Savill added: “The Ukrainians might want to even up the situation in the north, by removing Russian incursions into Sumy and near Kharkiv, but of greater importance would be getting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant back under Ukrainian control, given how much it would contribute to Ukrainian power needs.”
It’s also possible that Russia could be willing to withdraw from the areas of Kherson region that it controls.
It’s “plausible” they could get the power plant back, Mr Clarke said, but Russia would likely insist on maintaining access to Crimea by land.
This would mean that cities Mariupol and Melitopol – would remain in Russian hands, with all that that entails for the people living there.
Settlements are illegal under international law and have been condemned by the UN. They are, however, authorised by the Israeli government.
As well as official, government-approved settlements, there are also Israeli outposts.
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Israeli settlers attack Palestinian villages
These are established without government approval and are considered illegal by Israeli authorities. But reports suggest the government often turns a blind eye to their creation.
Israel began building settlements shortly after the 1967 Six-Day War.
The Etzion Bloc in Hebron, which was established that year, now houses around 40,000 people.
According to the Israel Policy Forum, the settlement programme is intended to protect Israel’s security, with settlers acting as the first line of defence “against an invasion”.
The Israeli public appears divided on the effectiveness of the settlements, however.
Image: A Palestinian man walks next to a wall covered with sprayed Hebrew slogans. Pic: Reuters
A 2024 Pew Research Centre poll found that 40% of Israelis believe settlements help Israeli security, 35% say they hurt it, and 21% think they make no difference.
Why are they controversial?
Israeli settlements are built on land that is internationally recognised as Palestinian territory.
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The activists trying to stop Israeli settlers
Sky News has spoken to multiple Palestinians who say they were forced out of their homes by Israeli settlers, despite having lived there for generations.
“They gradually invade the community and expand. The goal is to terrorise people, to make them flee,” Rachel Abramovitz, a member of the group Looking The Occupation In The Eye, told Sky News in May.
Settlers who have spoken to Sky News say they have a holy right to occupy the land.
American-born Israeli settler Daniel Winston told Sky’s chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay: “God’s real, and he wrote the Bible, and the Bible says, ‘I made this land, and I want you to be here’.”
Settlers make up around 5% of Israel’s population and 15% of the West Bank’s population, according to data from Peace Now.
How have things escalated since 7 October 2023?
Since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent military bombardment of Gaza, more than 100 Israeli outposts have been established, according to Peace Now.
In May, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government approved 22 new settlements, including the legalisation of outposts that had previously been built without authorisation.
Settler violence against Palestinians has also increased, according to the UN, with an average of 118 incidents each month – up from 108 in 2023, which was already a record year.
The UN’s latest report on Israeli settlements notes that in October 2024, there were 162 settler attacks on Palestinian olive harvesters, many of them in the presence of IDF soldiers.
Of the 174 settler violence incidents studied by the UN, 109 were not reported to Israeli authorities.
Most Palestinian victims said they didn’t report the attacks due to a lack of trust in the Israeli system; some said they feared retaliation by settlers or the authorities if they did.