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The anti-strikes bill has been branded “shoddy and unworkable” after an independent watchdog ruled the impact assessment of the policy was “not fit for purpose”.

The Regulatory Policy Committee (RPC), a panel that analyses new laws, said ministers have not considered all the effects of its controversial Minimum Service Levels Bill and has not backed up its assumptions with evidence.

The legislation seeks to ensure a legally mandated level of service across key sectors like the NHS, and will allow bosses to fire employees who ignore notices ordering them to work on strike days.

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Unions and Labour fiercely oppose the bill, which they say is an attack on the right to strike.

The legislation has passed through the Commons and is now facing scrutiny in the House of Lords.

The RPC criticised ministers for not submitting the impact assessment (IA) of the legislation before it was debated by MPs – as is required under the government’s “own policy for timely submission”.

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The watchdog said it received the assessment several weeks later and what was produced was not good enough – resulting in a “red rating”.

“The RPC found that the IA is not-fit-for-purpose and, therefore red rated,” it said.

The body said the rating “reflects the insufficient assessment of the impacts of the bill on small and micro-businesses”.

Labour called it a “damning judgement by independent experts on the government’s ‘Sacking Nurses’ Bill”.

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Mhari Aurora explains all you need to know about the bill

Deputy leader Angela Rayner said: “Tory ministers have failed utterly to do due diligence on this shoddy, unworkable policy, breaking their own rules and failing to provide evidence for their claims.

“Clearly the government is trying to hide the severe and disproportionate impacts its legislation will have on small businesses.

“It’s little wonder they’re trying to rush this legislation through parliament because not one bit of it stands up to scrutiny. This is a complete dereliction of ministerial duty.”

Ministers ‘should drop bill entirely’

Pat Cullen, chief executive of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN), said: “This is a damning assessment of the government’s attempt to stifle the rights of workers. The independent committee is saying it is not fit for purpose and should essentially go ‘back to the drawing board’.

“The government is ploughing ahead with an ill thought through bill that allows for nursing staff to be sacked for taking otherwise lawful strike action.

“Ministers would be better listening to the mounting opposition, drop the bill entirely and work with unions to resolve these disputes.”

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The government has insisted the legislation – being tabled at a time of widespread action across the public sector – hits the right balance between the right to strike and ensuring public safety during walkouts.

The RPC noted that while work notices have been proposed to stop employees from striking to ensure minimum service levels, the IA “does not consider these impacts in any detail”.

It said the government “must ensure that all direct business impacts (including those to trade unions) have been clearly identified and discussed” and called the cost-benefit analysis of the policy “weak”.

A Downing Street spokesperson said further impact assessments on the bill will be published by the government.

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Kemi Badenoch needs to pick her battles – and decide how dirty she wants to get

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Kemi Badenoch needs to pick her battles - and decide how dirty she wants to get

Never wrestle with a pig. You get dirty. And besides, the pig likes it.

Looking at the festive ding-dong that’s broken out between Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, you do wonder if the Tory leader should take on board this famous quote – because there was only ever going to be one winner from this spat.

The Reform UK leader has spent the thick end of three decades dragging his political opponents into fights that ultimately benefit his cause. This is no different.

What would have been a relatively low-key Christmas stunt has been elevated into literal front page news.

Reform UK insiders say that, in turn, is driving more people to the party and pushing up their member count further.

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Nigel Farage after his interviews to reporters.
Pic: Reuters
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Nigel Farage has spent his career dragging opponents into fights. Pic: Reuters

Part of this is down to news editors grabbing on to any bit of politics that’s around during the quiet period between Christmas and New Year.

Why Badenoch and her team didn’t clock this and hold back will likely bewilder some in her party.

An argument the Tories should have swerved

What’s more, the Tory leader is also currently on the back foot regarding her central accusation that the Reform membership number is fake.

Reform agreed to show Sky News details of their account on NationBuilder – a platform that manages memberships and donations for many political parties.

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From September – Farage: I could become prime minister

The number of active memberships in the account portal matched the figure on the ticker – with their website count growing in size shortly after the NationBuilder tally increased.

Sky News also conducted its own analysis on the ticker and found nothing suspicious as it stands (read the full analysis here).

Kemi Badenoch has said Reform changed the coding when people began to point out the alleged discrepancy, but has yet to provide any evidence to back this up.

Either way, this is still an argument the Tories should probably have swerved.

All politicians need to pick their battles

Yes, signed-up members mean more income for a party, but they don’t necessarily translate into wider electoral success. After all, Labour’s membership surged under Jeremy Corbyn, but he still lost two elections.

But that’s not to say both main parties shouldn’t be looking very closely in their rearview mirror at Reform.

The party’s reaction to this row shows a far more professional behind-the-scenes operation than the previous, more ramshackle incarnations of the Farage-led political machine.

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Is Reform UK winning the ‘bro vote’?

Talk to long time allies of the Reform leader, and even they sound somewhat surprised by how slick their project has got.

They also point to electoral milestones on the horizon where the party’s results at the ballot box can be objectively tracked – beginning with May’s local elections next year and running through the Welsh Assembly vote in 2026.

There’ll be many more attempts by Nigel Farage to wrestle with his political opponents before then.

The task for the Tory and indeed Labour leaders is to pick their fights and judge how dirty they are prepared to get.

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Nigel Farage threatens legal action if Kemi Badenoch doesn’t apologise for saying membership ticker was ‘fake’

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Nigel Farage threatens legal action if Kemi Badenoch doesn't apologise for saying membership ticker was 'fake'

Nigel Farage has threatened to take legal action against Tory leader Kemi Badenoch if she does not apologise for accusing him of publishing a “fake” ticker showing Reform UK’s membership increasing to overtake the Conservatives.

The Reform UK leader has reacted furiously to Ms Badenoch’s assertion that he was “manipulating [his] own supporters” with a ticker that is “coded to tick up automatically” after it showed the insurgent right-wing party had gone past 131,680 members – the number of eligible Conservative Party members in its leadership election in the autumn.

He is demanding an apology from Ms Badenoch for the “accusations of fraud and dishonesty” that he labelled “disgraceful”, and said he is “not going to take it lying down”.

Asked by Sky News in a call with journalists if he is going to sue the Tory leader for libel, Mr Farage said: “I’m going to take some action in the next couple of days. I’ve got to decide exactly what it is, but I’m certainly not going to take it lying down.”

“I think it’s an absolutely outrageous thing for her to have said,” he continued. “I know she’s got a very bad temper. I know she’s well known for lashing out at people, but I am not at all happy, and I’m going to take some action.”

He added that he will confirm within two days exactly what this action will be if she does not apologise for the “intemperate outburst”.

Analysis: Badenoch needs to pick her battles

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Reform showed Sky News the coding used to link the ticker to the member count within their account on the platform NationBuilder. The demonstration provided strong evidence that the ticker was not automated. Scroll down for the full analysis.

A Tory source told Sky News: “Fake Farage is clearly rattled that his Boxing Day Publicity Stunt is facing serious questions over a fake clock and hundreds of ‘members’ seemingly joining in the middle of the night.

“Like most normal people around the UK, Kemi is enjoying Christmas with her family and looking forward to taking on the challenges of renewing the Conservative Party in the New Year.”

‘It’s a fake’

The row started after Reform UK said on Boxing Day that it officially had more members than the Conservative Party, which Mr Farage, party leader and MP for Clacton-on-Sea, hailed as a “historic moment”, describing his party as “the real opposition”.

Reform UK also shared a video of the membership tracker being projected on to the Conservative Party headquarters in London.

But Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused the party of issuing misleading figures: “Manipulating your own supporters at Xmas eh, Nigel?. It’s not real. It’s a fake… [the website has been] coded to tick up automatically.”

Posting on X, she added that the Tories had “gained thousands of new members since the leadership election”.

Reform UK hit back at Ms Badenoch, publishing a screenshot of an online register claiming to show “active memberships”.

Do Reform’s claims stack up?

Ben van der Merwe

Data journalist

@_bvdm

Some tickers are indeed “coded to tick up automatically”. This is often done when the data isn’t updated regularly and so, in the meantime, the counter is made to increase at realistic intervals.

Any ticker showing government debt, unemployment or global temperatures, for instance, is almost certainly going up at a regular, pre-programmed rate.

Sky News analysed Reform UK’s ticker to see if this was the case for their membership ticker.

Specifically, we looked at a video posted by Nigel Farage on X, which shows an uninterrupted view of the counter from 4pm on Christmas Day to 2pm on Boxing Day.

The chart above shows the number of new members added every 30 minutes during that 22-hour stretch.

What we can see is that it varies a lot – very few people join overnight, and there is a big surge from around 11am on Boxing Day.

This was around the time that it was first reported Reform UK had acquired more members than the Conservatives, which provided a burst of publicity to the party.

If the ticker was simply increasing automatically, we would expect a much flatter line.

Political parties in the UK aren’t required to reveal their membership numbers, much less provide data that can be independently verified.

However, Reform UK did show Sky News its account on Nation Builder, an independent platform widely used by political parties and campaigns to track and manage their memberships.

Sky News was able to verify that the number of memberships in Reform’s NationBuilder account matched the number presented on their on-site ticker.

The Conservative Party had 131,680 members as of the November leadership contest, while Labour had 366,604 members as of March 2024.

Reform UK chair Zia Yusuf also waded into the row, claiming that people whose memberships of the Tory party had lapsed voted in the autumn leadership election that saw Ms Badenoch elected to the role.

In a call with journalists earlier, he repeated the assertion, and after putting out a call on social media for people to contact him if they had voted in the leadership election but are no longer party members, he said he has received “just so many” that he has not yet been able to verify their claims.

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Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party have been contacted for comment.

Reform UK has said it will submit to an audit of its membership numbers by one of the “big four” accountancy firms if the Tories do the same.

Farage gets personal

Speaking to journalists earlier, Mr Farage was very critical of Ms Badenoch personally, saying her claim that their membership number ticker had been faked “reflects her personality”.

He labelled her “aggressive” and “liable to lashing out”, and said he thinks she wrote her tweet out of a “slight sense of anger”.

“She’s got to fully disprove this, and she’s going to find life a lot more difficult and bitterly regret putting this out on Boxing Day afternoon,” he added.

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Man charged with attempted murder after group hit by car in London’s West End on Christmas Day

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Man charged with attempted murder after group hit by car in London's West End on Christmas Day

A man has been charged with four counts of attempted murder after a car collided with a group of people in London’s West End on Christmas Day.

Anthony Gilheaney, 30, will appear before Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Friday and has also been charged with causing serious injury by driving whilst disqualified, driving a motor vehicle dangerously and possession of a bladed article in a public place, the Metropolitan Police said.

Forensic investigators collect evidence at the scene on Shaftesbury Avenue.
Pic: PA
Image:
Forensic investigators collect evidence at the scene on Christmas Day. Pic: PA


The scene on Shaftesbury Avenue in central London after four people were injured, one seriously, by a car which was driven onto a pavement in central London in the early hours of Christmas Day. A 31-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder. Picture date: Wednesday December 25, 2024.
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Items of clothing and blood are seen on the pavement. Pic: PA

Four people were taken to hospital after the incident, with one in a life-threatening condition.

Metropolitan Police officers were called to reports of a crash and a car driving on the wrong side of the road at 12.45am.

The incident occurred outside the Sondheim Theatre, which is the London home of the musical Les Miserables.

Shaftesbury Avenue is at the heart of London‘s West End and the city’s theatre district.

Deputy Assistant Commissioner Stuart Cundy said the suspect was arrested within minutes of the incident “in the early hours of Christmas Day”.

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“Since then, investigators have worked tirelessly to build the case and have today charged Anthony Gilheaney with four counts of attempted murder.

“Our thoughts now are with the victims, one of which remains in critical condition in hospital.”

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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