Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks during a press conference at The MGM during CES 2018 in Las Vegas on January 7, 2018.
Mandel Ngan | AFP | Getty Images
Software that can write passages of text or draw pictures that look like a human created them has kicked off a gold rush in the technology industry.
Companies like Microsoft and Google are fighting to integrate cutting-edge AI into their search engines, as billion-dollar competitors such as OpenAI and Stable Diffusion race ahead and release their software to the public.
Powering many of these applications is a roughly $10,000 chip that’s become one of the most critical tools in the artificial intelligence industry: The Nvidia A100.
The A100 has become the “workhorse” for artificial intelligence professionals at the moment, said Nathan Benaich, an investor who publishes a newsletter and report covering the AI industry, including a partial list of supercomputers using A100s. Nvidia takes 95% of the market for graphics processors that can be used for machine learning, according to New Street Research.
The A100 is ideally suited for the kind of machine learning models that power tools like ChatGPT, Bing AI, or Stable Diffusion. It’s able to perform many simple calculations simultaneously, which is important for training and using neural network models.
The technology behind the A100 was initially used to render sophisticated 3D graphics in games. It’s often called a graphics processor, or GPU, but these days Nvidia’s A100 is configured and targeted at machine learning tasks and runs in data centers, not inside glowing gaming PCs.
Big companies or startups working on software like chatbots and image generators require hundreds or thousands of Nvidia’s chips, and either purchase them on their own or secure access to the computers from a cloud provider.
Hundreds of GPUsare required to train artificial intelligence models, like large language models. The chips need to be powerful enough to crunch terabytes of data quickly to recognize patterns. After that, GPUs like the A100 are also needed for “inference,” or using the model to generate text, make predictions, or identify objects inside photos.
This means that AI companies need access to a lot of A100s. Some entrepreneurs in the space even see the number of A100s they have access to as a sign of progress.
“A year ago we had 32 A100s,” Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque wrote on Twitter in January. “Dream big and stack moar GPUs kids. Brrr.” Stability AI is the company that helped develop Stable Diffusion, an image generator that drew attention last fall, and reportedly has a valuation of over $1 billion.
Now, Stability AI has access to over 5,400 A100 GPUs, according to one estimate from the State of AI report, which charts and tracks which companies and universities have the largest collection of A100 GPUs — although it doesn’t include cloud providers, which don’t publish their numbers publicly.
Nvidia’s riding the A.I. train
Nvidia stands to benefit from the AI hype cycle. During Wednesday’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, although overall sales declined 21%, investors pushed the stock up about 14% on Thursday, mainly because the company’s AI chip business — reported as data centers — rose by 11% to more than $3.6 billion in sales during the quarter, showing continued growth.
Nvidia shares are up 65% so far in 2023, outpacing the S&P 500 and other semiconductor stocks alike.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang couldn’t stop talking about AI on a call with analysts on Wednesday, suggesting that the recent boom in artificial intelligence is at the center of the company’s strategy.
“The activity around the AI infrastructure that we built, and the activity around inferencing using Hopper and Ampere to influence large language models has just gone through the roof in the last 60 days,” Huang said. “There’s no question that whatever our views are of this year as we enter the year has been fairly dramatically changed as a result of the last 60, 90 days.”
Ampere is Nvidia’s code name for the A100 generation of chips. Hopper is the code name for the new generation, including H100, which recently started shipping.
More computers needed
Nvidia A100 processor
Nvidia
Compared to other kinds of software, like serving a webpage, which uses processing power occasionally in bursts for microseconds, machine learning tasks can take up the whole computer’s processing power, sometimes for hours or days.
This means companies that find themselves with a hit AI product often need to acquire more GPUs to handle peak periods or improve their models.
These GPUs aren’t cheap. In addition to a single A100 on a card that can be slotted into an existing server, many data centers use a system that includes eight A100 GPUs working together.
This system, Nvidia’s DGX A100, has a suggested price of nearly $200,000, although it comes with the chips needed. On Wednesday, Nvidia said it would sell cloud access to DGX systems directly, which will likely reduce the entry cost for tinkerers and researchers.
It’s easy to see how the cost of A100s can add up.
For example, an estimate from New Street Research found that the OpenAI-based ChatGPT model inside Bing’s search could require 8 GPUs to deliver a response to a question in less than one second.
At that rate, Microsoft would need over 20,000 8-GPU servers just to deploy the model in Bing to everyone, suggesting Microsoft’s feature could cost $4 billion in infrastructure spending.
“If you’re from Microsoft, and you want to scale that, at the scale of Bing, that’s maybe $4 billion. If you want to scale at the scale of Google, which serves 8 or 9 billion queries every day, you actually need to spend $80 billion on DGXs.” said Antoine Chkaiban, a technology analyst at New Street Research. “The numbers we came up with are huge. But they’re simply the reflection of the fact that every single user taking to such a large language model requires a massive supercomputer while they’re using it.”
The latest version of Stable Diffusion, an image generator, was trained on 256 A100 GPUs, or 32 machines with 8 A100s each, according to information online posted by Stability AI, totaling 200,000 compute hours.
At the market price, training the model alone cost $600,000, Stability AI CEO Mostaque said on Twitter, suggesting in a tweet exchange the price was unusually inexpensive compared to rivals. That doesn’t count the cost of “inference,” or deploying the model.
Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, said in an interview with CNBC’s Katie Tarasov that the company’s products are actually inexpensive for the amount of computation that these kinds of models need.
“We took what otherwise would be a $1 billion data center running CPUs, and we shrunk it down into a data center of $100 million,” Huang said. “Now, $100 million, when you put that in the cloud and shared by 100 companies, is almost nothing.”
Huang said that Nvidia’s GPUs allow startups to train models for a much lower cost than if they used a traditional computer processor.
“Now you could build something like a large language model, like a GPT, for something like $10, $20 million,” Huang said. “That’s really, really affordable.”
New competition
Nvidia isn’t the only company making GPUs for artificial intelligence uses. AMD and Intel have competing graphics processors, and big cloud companies like Google and Amazon are developing and deploying their own chips specially designed for AI workloads.
Still, “AI hardware remains strongly consolidated to NVIDIA,” according to the State of AI compute report. As of December, more than 21,000 open-source AI papers said they used Nvidia chips.
Most researchersincluded in the State of AI Compute Index used the V100, Nvidia’s chip that came out in 2017, but A100 grew fast in 2022 to be the third-most used Nvidia chip, just behind a $1500-or-less consumer graphics chip originally intended for gaming.
The A100 also has the distinction of being one of only a few chips to have export controls placed on it because of national defense reasons. Last fall, Nvidia said in an SEC filing that the U.S. government imposed a license requirement barring the export of the A100 and the H100 to China, Hong Kong, and Russia.
“The USG indicated that the new license requirement will address the risk that the covered products may be used in, or diverted to, a ‘military end use’ or ‘military end user’ in China and Russia,” Nvidia said in its filing. Nvidia previously said it adapted some of its chips for the Chinese market to comply with U.S. export restrictions.
The fiercest competition for the A100 may be its successor. The A100 was first introduced in 2020, an eternity ago in chip cycles. The H100, introduced in 2022, is starting to be produced in volume — in fact, Nvidia recorded more revenue from H100 chips in the quarter ending in January than the A100, it said on Wednesday, although the H100 is more expensive per unit.
The H100, Nvidia says, is the first one of its data center GPUs to be optimized for transformers, an increasingly important technique that many of the latest and top AI applications use. Nvidia said on Wednesday that it wants to make AI training over 1 million percent faster. That could mean that, eventually, AI companies wouldn’t need so many Nvidia chips.
But the first full trading week of the month saw stocks caught in November rains.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each lost more than 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed around 3% — that’s its largest weekly loss since the tech-heavy index slumped 10% in the week ended April 4.
A few months ago, tariffs were the shadows that stalked stocks. Now, it’s fears that artificial intelligence-related stocks are trading at prices disconnected from what the firms are actually worth.
“You’ve got trillions of dollars tied up in seven stocks, for example. So, it’s inevitable, with that kind of concentration, that there will be a worry about, ‘You know, when will this bubble burst?‘” CEO of DBS, Southeast Asia’s largest bank,Tan Su Shan told CNBC.
“It’s likely there’ll be a 10 to 20% drawdown in equity markets sometime in the next 12 to 24 months,” Solomon said Tuesday at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong.
That said, a pullback isn’t necessarily bad for stocks. It could even present “buying opportunities” for investors, according to Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management.
After all, earnings have been “reassuring” despite worries about tech stocks’ high valuations, Kiran Ganesh, multi-asset strategist at UBS, told CNBC. That means the rain might not last and the rally could find a way to run a little longer.
— CNBC’s Lee Ying Shan, Hugh Leask and Lim Hui Jie contributed to this report.
China consumer prices pick up in October. The consumer price index, released Sunday, showed a 0.2% growth year on year. It beats analysts’ expectations of zero growth and is the first month since June that prices rose.
U.S. government on track to end shutdown. Enough Democratic senators had agreed to vote for a deal that would fund the U.S. government through the end of January, a person familiar with the deal told CNBC.
Another missed jobs report. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown — which is now the longest ever — means the Bureau of Labor Statistics couldn’t release its monthly employment data. Here’s what economists would have expected the report to show.
[PRO] Stocks that could bounce after sell-off. Using CNBC Pro’s stock screener tool, we found several names that are oversold, according to their 14-day relative strength index. This implies they could be due for a recovery in prices.
Fundraisers and fraudsters are presenting themselves as family office representatives, seeking to dupe gullible investors — and then there are also imposters who are in it just for an “ego boost,” several industry veterans told CNBC.
An information vacuum seems to have encouraged imposters. In many markets, genuine single family offices, or SFOs, are exempt from registering so long as they manage only family money. That privacy norm often makes verification hard, said industry experts.
It was a terrible start to November on Wall Street. The tech-heavy Nasdaq sank just over 3% in its worst weekly performance since early April. The S & P 500 fell 1.6% for the week. Both stock measures broke three-week winning streaks.This week’s market decline, which followed a strong October, can be chalked up to two reasons. First, investors grew concerned about the eye-watering valuations of stocks tied to artificial intelligence. Case in point: Nvidia lost its $5 trillion market cap designation in a weekly loss of 7%. The weakness in Nvidia was exacerbated by the realization that China would not be opening back up in a meaningful way for the powerhouse of AI chips. While management has not included China sales in its outlook for months, many investors still thought it could happen. Still, we maintain our long-held “own it, don’t trade” thesis on Nvidia. .SPX .IXIC 5D mountain S & P 500 and Nasdaq weekly performance Second, there were emerging signs that the government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history, was starting to harm the economy. Job cuts last month reached their highest levels for any October in 22 years, according to Thursday’s reading from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. A day later, the latest monthly consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan registered nearly its worst reading ever. These reports from private organizations have taken on added importance since the shutdown, which started on Oct. 1 and has delayed most government economic data. During this week of market turmoil, we executed three trades. On Monday, we added to our Starbucks position. The stock has taken a beating with other restaurant names on fears of a weakening consumer. In this case, we think the decline is overblown. After all, the turnaround story under CEO Brian Niccol remains strong. “With shares trading back to their ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs lows in early April, we see this recent weakness as an opportunity to slowly scoop up more,” Jeff Marks, the Investing Club’s director of portfolio analysis, wrote in a trade alert. “Niccol has embarked on an ambitious plan to bring back the coffeehouse atmosphere and fix its stores through a new operating and staffing model called Green Apron Service . It’s taken a few quarters, but the turn has finally started.” The Club also snapped up more Boeing stock Tuesday. Shares dropped significantly after the aircraft maker’s earnings report last week, caused by a larger-than-expected charge on its 777X program. Yes, the quarter was a frustrating setback. But the decline presented a great opportunity for long-term investors like us. “The turnaround under Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg is still progressing nicely, driven by better execution on its 737 program,” Marks wrote in a trade alert. “With production moving from 38 airplanes per month to 42 — then eventually 47 and 52 under FAA guidance in the future — Boeing’s ability to make and deliver more planes will lead to strong free cash flow generation in the years ahead.” The market’s pullback Thursday gave us a chance to buy more GE Vernova stock. Shares have tumbled as AI-linked names have been scrutinized for their valuations. That’s because GE Vernova is one of the world’s largest producers of gas-fired turbines, which are used to create electricity and electrification products found in data centers. The company’s sales heavily benefit from the insatiable demand for more energy due to the frantic AI infrastructure race. “We are using this downturn to buy more shares since we still have a positive long-term outlook on the need for increased electricity investment,” Marks wrote in another trade alert. Eli Lilly made headlines this week. President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a GLP-1 pricing deal with Lilly and rival drugmaker Novo Nordisk that would lower prices for certain weight-loss treatments in exchange for coverage in Medicare and Medicaid programs. This was huge news for Lilly because it can expand access to Zepbound, increasing the blockbuster weight-loss drug’s total addressable market. Eli Lilly is also behind GLP-1 Mounjaro, but it was not included in the deal. That’s not the only piece of good news for Lilly. Management announced positive mid-stage trial results for its experimental amylin obesity drug. The once-a-week shot called eloralintide was shown to help patients shed pounds while maintaining muscle mass. Shares of Eli Lilly were up 7% for the week. this week. Quarterly earnings and spinoff news were also in focus. Eaton delivered a mixed third-quarter report Tuesday morning, which beat on adjusted earnings per share (EPS) but missed on revenue and organic sales. Although the headline results were uneven, the Club still found bright spots in the release. Overall segment profit and profit margin, for example, beat expectations and reached new quarterly records. DuPont posted a beat on the top and bottom line Thursday morning — less than a week after the spinoff of Qnity Electronics. Shares of DuPont slipped right after because of noise around quarterly numbers due to the split and divestiture of its Aramids business. Still, the underlying fundamentals for the new DuPont look strong, and the stock was our biggest winner on the week, up 16.5% to nearly $40. The Club downgraded shares to our 2 rating . We also adjusted our price target to $44. Solstice Advanced Materials, which recently split from Club name Honeywell , reported earnings on Thursday with no major surprises. There was a 7% topline growth, which was provided when Honeywell posted its own results just two weeks ago. Plus, it was all fairly consistent with what was said at an investor day last month. Texas Roadhouse shared a mixed earnings report Thursday night, posting better-than-expected comps despite concerns of softening consumer spending. However, higher beef prices caused the steakhouse chain to raise its commodity inflation outlook, which has weighed on Texas Roadhouse’s profitability for some time. We’re not giving up on the Club stock yet. Wall Street heard from Qnity on Thursday night, too. Not earnings, we learned about those numbers when DuPont reported, but management delivered a business update after the close, which made us hopeful of the company’s position to keep growing from secular trends like AI in the years ahead. The Club issued a buy-equivalent 1 rating on the stock and a price target of $110. Qnity stock has been volatile and closed Friday just over $92. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
State Street is reiterating its bullish stance on the artificial intelligence trade despite the Nasdaq’s worst week since April.
Chief Business Officer Anna Paglia said momentum stocks still have legs because investors are reluctant to step away from the growth story that’s driven gains all year.
“How would you not want to participate in the growth of AI technology? Everybody has been waiting for the cycle to change from growth to value. I don’t think it’s happening just yet because of the momentum,” Paglia told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” earlier this week. “I don’t think the rebalancing trade is going to happen until we see a signal from the market indicating a slowdown in these big trends.”
Paglia, who has spent 25 years in the exchange-traded funds industry, sees a higher likelihood that the space will cool off early next year.
“There will be much more focus about the diversification,” she said.
Her firm manages several ETFs with exposure to the technology sector, including the SPDR NYSE Technology ETF, which has gained 38% so far this year as of Friday’s close.
The fund, however, pulled back more than 4% over the past week as investors took profits in AI-linked names. The fund’s second top holding as of Friday’s close is Palantir Technologies, according to State Street’s website. Its stock tumbled more than 11% this week after the company’s earnings report on Monday.
Despite the decline, Paglia reaffirmed her bullish tech view in a statement to CNBC later in the week.
Meanwhile, Todd Rosenbluth suggests a rotation is already starting to grip the market. He points to a renewed appetite for health-care stocks.
“The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund… which has been out of favor for much of the year, started a return to favor in October,” the firm’s head of research said in the same interview. “Health care tends to be a more defensive sector, so we’re watching to see if people continue to gravitate towards that as a way of diversifying away from some of those sectors like technology.”
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, which has been underperforming technology sector this year, is up 5% since Oct. 1. It was also the second-best performing S&P 500 group this week.