Russia’s economy has weathered the West’s sanctions – but how?

Published

2 years ago

February 24, 2023

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In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders heralded a sanctions regime that would cripple the country’s war machine.

Joe Biden claimed Russia’s economy would be “cut in half”, while Boris Johnson spoke of squeezing it “piece by piece.”

A year has passed, but that great promise has been slow to deliver.

“The Russian economy and system of government have turned out to be much stronger than the West believed,” President Vladimir Putin said in a speech to the country’s parliament on Tuesday.

He was also flexing his muscles at an economic cabinet meeting last month: “Remember, some of our experts here in the country – I’m not even talking about Western experts – thought [gross domestic product] would fall by 10%, 15%, even 20%.”

Instead, Russia shrunk by a relatively modest 2.2% and it is expected to grow by 0.3% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

It means the sanctions-hit country will outperform Britain.

Among Western leaders, these predictions will make for unpleasant reading.

Over the past year, sanctions have descended on Russia’s economy but, to the surprise of most economists, it has weathered the storm.

This is largely down to the country’s oil and gas reserves. Although Europe turned its back on Russian energy exports, the country was able to exploit delays in imposing the ban, which helped bolster its public finances.

Revenues held up strongly thanks to a global spike in energy prices and a successful reorientation of trade to China and India.

Russia was already sitting on a comfortable cushion.

Record high trade surpluses following the invasion came after years of conservative fiscal policies which allowed the country to amass a fund that it is now deploying in the war against Ukraine.

The country has been quietly sanctions proofing its economy for years.

Russians are enjoying record low unemployment and wage growth that has helped them to weather the worst of rising inflation.

They’re still cautious about spending during times of economic uncertainty, but the government is trying its best to encourage them by hiking minimum wages and pensions.

While economic data is not wholly reliable, nor does it provide a full view of the strains Russian society is under, the domestic economy has not collapsed in the way some had warned.

President Putin is in a triumphant mood but it may not last for long as cracks are starting to show.

Oil revenues are slipping now that Western countries have introduced a price cap on Russian Urals, its main crude export blend, and the country’s public finances are deteriorating as a result.

At the same time Russia is having to ramp up military spending and is relying on sales of foreign currency – Chinese yuan – to support the rouble. Last year may have exceeded expectations, but the sting of Western sanctions is only just starting to be felt.

Jobs

Living standards in Russia have been supported by record high wage growth and low unemployment.

When the war first broke out, analysts expected the departure of foreign companies to lead to mass job losses.

Instead, unemployment fell to a record low of 3.7% as Western firms handed over their businesses to local partners, which helped to maintain employment.

However, the headline unemployment rate is disguising a massive drop in the size of the workforce.

Hundreds and thousands of skilled workers have left or fled the country, either to fight or find work elsewhere – estimates range from 0.4% to 1.4% of Russia’s workforce. This is weighing on economic growth, with the country’s central bank warning recently: “The capacity to expand production in the Russian economy is largely limited by the labour market conditions.”

As in Britain, where a shrinking labour market is affecting the country’s economic outlook and putting pressure on inflation, Russia’s fortunes will also depend on how well the size of its workforce recovers.

Tatiana Orlova, economist at Oxford Economics, said: “There is anecdotal evidence that some of those who left in panic in March or September have since returned, due perhaps to their being unable to find an equivalent job abroad or because they still had family and property back in Russia.”

Wages

The tight labour market has led to robust wage growth – especially for IT professionals, construction workers and hospitality staff – which is boosting living standards. Wage growth in Russia is almost keeping pace with inflation and the government is hiking pensions and the national minimum wage, which will go up by another 10% next January after rising by 20% last year.

Consumer spending

Oil revenues get a lot of attention but consumer spending is still the dominant part of the country’s economy and the government is hoping that the extra money will encourage Russians to go out and spend, something they have been cautious about indulging in over the past year.

It may have a large task on its hands, however. Many analysts expect Russia to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks in an effort to capture the whole of Donbas. If the country’s leadership announce a new wave of mobilisation then consumer confidence will likely drop again, causing households to prioritise saving over spending.

“The savings-to-disposable income ratio will rise again and stay elevated until the fighting abates, hampering authorities’ efforts to revive household demand,” Ms Orlova said.

Business investment

Another round of mobilisation could also start weighing on business confidence. In the early days of the conflict economists were convinced that business investment would collapse at its fastest pace in decades but that did not happen.

Bumper profits for oil, gas and fertiliser producers helped fund business plans, with fixed investment increasing by 6% in 2021.

As Russia diverted its energy exports to Asia, the country required a massive increase in infrastructure.

This also helped boost the country’s manufacturing sector, although not uniformly. The country’s car industry, for example, collapsed last year as manufacturers struggled to access key component parts and tools from the west. Others are coping by accessing parts from Turkey, which is yet to participate in the international sanctions.

Oil and gas

Attempts to strangle Russia’s economy were immediately stifled by Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas exports, which make up about 40% of the country’s revenues.

Russia successfully exploited this.

In the nine months that it took for the EU to agree and implement a bloc-wide ban on Russian oil exports, Putin’s regime enjoyed record fiscal surpluses as the country benefited from soaring wholesale prices, with its current account surplus jumping by 86% to $227.4bn.

This gave Russia a giant cushion to help fund the war effort and strengthened its currency, helping keep the price of imports low and dampening inflation.

During this time the country was also able to redirect supply to India and China, where its overall crude and fuel oil exports reached a record high of 1.66 million barrels a day last month.

A more challenging 2023

This year will be more challenging.

The country’s public finances are already starting to weaken as lower energy prices weigh on revenues. A $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude oil – imposed by the EU, G7 and Australia in December – means the country is being forced to sell oil at a considerably discounted price compared to the global Brent benchmark.

The cap was recently extended to refined petroleum products as well.

Russia’s budget deficit came in at £20.8bn in January as income from oil and gas fell by 46% over the year. At the same time, government spending increased by 59% over the year.

Economists identified these as early signs of strain, with the country having to sell more Chinese currency and issue local debt to support itself.

However, they were still relatively sanguine about the country’s prospects.

Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, said: “The fiscal deficit expanded in 2022 but remained still moderate at 2% – below the pandemic or the great financial crisis levels.”

She added: “With the public debt below 20% of GDP the financing is hardly an immediate source of the stress, though a sustainable decrease in oil and gas revenues will call for a medium-term fiscal consolidation and non-oil tax increase, we believe.

“This consolidation, however, is yet not that urgent and could be delayed by up to two years, we assume.”

Analysts said the country had scope to increase the tax intake by levelling windfall tax on energy and fertiliser producers.

Crucially, Russia is able to meet its financing needs comfortably at home.

Both the government and corporations have very low levels of external debt and the government has built up a robust sovereign wealth fund.

“We need to remember Russia has spent the best part of 10 years sanctions proofing its economy,” said Liam Peach of Capital Economics.

“What all this meant was being cut out of global capital markets and sanctions on various corporates, banks and the government didn’t really have much of an impact on their financial needs, because they were quite low. So Russia’s government, for example, could go eight months without issuing any debt.”

Business

United Utilities increases profit by more than £100m as it seeks more bill rises

Published

6 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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United Utilities increases profit by more than £100m as it seeks more bill rises

Water company United Utilities has reported hundreds of millions in profit as it seeks to further increase customer bills.

The utility serving seven million customers in the northwest of England recorded £335.7m in underlying operating profits for the first half of this year, up nearly 23% from £271.1m a year ago.

It comes as the firm has requested bills rise 32% to make them among the most expensive in England and Wales.

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The proposed average annual bill would increase to £584 by 2030 from the £443 typical yearly charge in the 2023/2024 financial year. Since April 2023 bills have been upped 6.4% and then 7.9%.

Bills hikes were behind the rise in revenue to more than £1.08bn from £975.4m in 2023.

Other ways of assessing profit were lower than the underlying operating sum. Profit before tax reached £140.6m while after tax profit topped £103.1m for the six months to the end of September 2024, both lower than a year earlier.

Boss’s pay

Bonus and benefits payments worth £1.416m were paid to two executives on top of £1.128m in base pay, according to analysis of company filings done by the Liberal Democrats.

It’s down compared with 2022/2023 when three executives were given £1.6m in base pay and £2.456m in bonuses and benefits.

The environment

In a year of record sewage outflows into waterways the company was one of just three firms that met the Environment Agency’s top four-star performance ranking.

United Utilities in July came under investigation by water regulator Ofwat for not meeting its obligation to minimise pollution.

In response the company said at the time: “We understand and share people’s concerns about the health of the environment and the operation of wastewater systems, including combined sewer overflows.”

Business

Rachel Reeves to create pension ‘mega funds’ to invest in infrastructure

Published

9 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Rachel Reeves to create pension 'mega funds' to invest in infrastructure

Pension “mega funds” will be created under government plans to increase infrastructure investment.

Reforms could “unlock £80 billion” of investment, according to Treasury plans, which say fewer but larger funds can get greater returns.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to imitate the way large Canadian and Australian pension schemes work.

She said it marks “the biggest set of reforms to the pensions market in decades” ahead of providing more details in a speech at Mansion House on Thursday evening.

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Almost 90 local government pension pots will be grouped together, with defined contribution schemes merged and assets pooled together.

This is part of the government’s plan to increase economic growth through investing in infrastructure.

Pension schemes get greater returns when they reach around £20bn to £50bn as they are “better placed to invest in a wider range of assets”, according to the government.

This is backed up by evidence from Canada and Australia, the government argues – with Canada’s schemes investing four times more in infrastructure, and Australia three times more than the UK’s defined contribution schemes.

Pensions minister Emma Reynolds told Sky News larger pension schemes are able to invest “in a more diverse range of assets, including private equity, which are higher risk, but over time give a higher return”.

She said the government will not tell pension fund managers they must invest more in private equity but due to the larger scale they will be able to invest in a “broader range of assets, and that’s what we see in Canada and Australia”.

Ms Reynolds added that a Canadian teacher or an Australian professor is currently more likely to be invested in British infrastructure or British high-growth companies than a British saver, which she said is “wrong”.

The chancellor has said the changes would “unlock tens of billions of pounds of investment in business and infrastructure, boost people’s savings in retirement and drive economic growth so we can make every part of Britain better off”.

However, Tom Selby, the director of public policy at financial company AJ Bell, said: “There needs to be some caution in this push to use other people’s money to drive economic growth. It needs to be made very clear to members what is happening with their money.”

The government says the funds will be regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and will need to “meet rigorous standards to ensure they deliver for savers”.

Local government pensions v defined contributions

The Local Government Pension Scheme in England and Wales will manage assets worth around £500bn by 2030.

These assets are currently split across 86 different administering authorities, with local government officials and councillors managing each fund.

Under the government plans, the management of local government pensions and what they invest in will be moved from councillors and local officials to “professional fund managers”.

This will allow them to invest more in assets such as infrastructure, supporting economic growth and local investment on behalf of the 6.7 million public servants, the government said.

Defined contribution pension schemes are set to manage £800bn worth of assets by the end of the decade.

There are around 60 different multi-employer schemes, each investing savers’ money into one or more funds. The government will consult on setting a minimum size requirement for these funds.

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Businesses cautious – but pensions sector backs plans

Businesses will need to be reassured that the government’s plans are watertight following the fallout from the budget, according to the trade group the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

The CBI’s chief economist Louise Hellem said: “While the chancellor is right to concentrate on mobilising investment, putting pension reform to work for the government’s growth mission, unlocking investment also needs competitive and profitable businesses.

“With the budget piling additional costs on firms and squeezing their headroom to invest, the government needs to work hard to regain the confidence in the UK as a place businesses and communities can succeed.

“Pension schemes will want to operate within a UK economy that is prospering.”

But key parts of the pensions sector gave their backing to the government’s plans, including Standard Life, Royal London, Local Pensions Partnership Investments and the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association.

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said: “This is about harnessing the untapped potential of the pensions belonging to millions of people, and using it as a force for good in boosting our economy.”

Business

Apple sued by Which? over iCloud use – with potential payout for 40 million UK customers

Published

12 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Apple sued by Which? over iCloud use - with potential payout for 40 million UK customers

Consumer rights group Which? is suing Apple for £3bn over the way it deploys the iCloud.

If the lawsuit succeeds, around 40 million Apple customers in the UK could be entitled to a payout.

The lawsuit claims Apple, which controls iOS operating systems, has breached UK competition law by giving its iCloud storage preferential treatment, effectively “trapping” customers with Apple devices into using it.

It also claims the company overcharged those customers by stifling competition.

The rights group alleges Apple encouraged users to sign up to iCloud for storage of photos, videos and other data while simultaneously making it difficult to use alternative providers.

Which? says Apple doesn’t allow customers to store or back-up all of their phone’s data with a third-party provider, arguing this violates competition law.

The consumer rights group says once iOS users have signed up to iCloud, they then have to pay for the service once their photos, notes, messages and other data go over the free 5GB limit.

“By bringing this claim, Which? is showing big corporations like Apple that they cannot rip off UK consumers without facing repercussions,” said Which?’s chief executive Anabel Hoult.

“Taking this legal action means we can help consumers to get the redress that they are owed, deter similar behaviour in the future and create a better, more competitive market.”

Apple ‘rejects’ claims and will defend itself

Apple “rejects” the idea its customers are tied to using iCloud and told Sky News it would “vigorously” defend itself.

“Apple believes in providing our customers with choices,” a spokesperson said.

“Our users are not required to use iCloud, and many rely on a wide range of third-party alternatives for data storage. In addition, we work hard to make data transfer as easy as possible – whether it’s to iCloud or another service.

“We reject any suggestion that our iCloud practices are anti-competitive and will vigorously defend against any legal claim otherwise.”

It also said nearly half of its customers don’t use iCloud and its pricing is inline with other cloud storage providers.

How much could UK Apple customers receive if lawsuit succeeds?

The lawsuit will represent all UK Apple customers that have used iCloud services since 1 October 2015 – any that don’t want to be included will need to opt out.

However, if consumers live abroad but are otherwise eligible – for example because they lived in UK and used the iCloud but then moved away – they can also opt in.

The consumer rights group estimates that individual consumers could be owed an average of £70, depending on how long they have been paying for the services during that period.

Apple is facing a similar lawsuit in the US, where the US Department of Justice is accusing the company of locking down its iPhone ecosystem to build a monopoly.

Apple said the lawsuit is “wrong on the facts and the law” and that it will vigorously defend against it.

Big tech’s battles

This is the latest in a line of challenges big tech companies like Apple, Google and Samsung have faced around anti-competitive practices.

Most notably, a landmark case in the US earlier this year saw a judge rule that Google holds an illegal monopoly over the internet search market.

The company is now facing a second antitrust lawsuit, and may be forced to break up parts of its business.

And in December last year, a judge declared Google’s Android app store a monopoly in a case brought by a private gaming company.

“Now that five companies control the whole of the internet economy, there’s a real need for people to fight back and to really put pressure on the government,” William Fitzgerald, from tech campaigning organisation The Worker Agency, told Sky News.