Ukraine stands firm a year into the fight – but the war is likely to grind on

Published

2 years ago

February 25, 2023

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Ukraine hopes to defeat Russia’s invasion this year but, unless the West provides sufficient weapons to achieve a decisive victory or Vladimir Putin gives up, this war is set to grind on.

One year into a full-scale invasion intent on toppling the government and imposing a pro-Russia regime, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was standing firm on Friday.

But this was a day for commemoration, not celebration as the nation observed a one minute’s silence to remember the tens of thousands of Ukrainian service personnel who gave their lives to protect Ukraine’s freedom.

Ukraine – latest: Zelenskyy describes his toughest moment during the war

They also know that there are many more days, months – even years – of tough fighting ahead.

The Ukrainian leader awarded medals to soldiers – including those who died – at a ceremony in Kyiv.

“We withstand all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, blackouts and cold,” he told lines of troops as well as families.

“And we will do everything to gain victory this year.”

Mr Zelenskyy knows that he must keep strong.

His country withstood the shock on 24 February 2022 of the biggest invasion in Europe since the Second World War.

But his people are exhausted and there is no end in sight to the threat, with battles raging in the east.

Ukraine’s military is unwavering in their determination to fight.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing no sign of giving up despite repeated defeats and setbacks.

His forces still hold about one fifth of Ukrainian territory, with up to 300,000 troops on the ground – double the initial invading force – according to Western officials.

It means the fighting this year is only set to worsen.

Neither side appears to have the capability to achieve a decisive victory. But no one is in the mood for compromise.

Asked by Sky News whether Ukraine could win on the battlefield or whether he might have to consider a negotiation – possibly even with Mr Putin – Mr Zelenskyy said: “Despite everybody seeing how they kill, torture and everything else, they’re not even trying to hide their attacks…They [Russians] don’t care.

“And seeing the world this way, do you think we Ukrainians can sit and negotiate with all of this?”

He continued: “Firstly – please respect our right to live on our land. Leave our territory.

“Stop shelling us, stop killing civilians, stop destroying our infrastructure, energy sector, drinking water, stop airstrikes on the cities, villages, stop killing dogs, cats, just animals, stop burning the forests.

“So you go ahead and stop doing all of that, and only after that, we’ll tell you what format will be used to diplomatically put an end to this.”

But the Kremlin believes the numbers – time and sheer mass of manpower – are on its side.

The Russian president has likely calculated that his Western foes lack the strategic patience to commit to a war that will outlast most election cycles.

He is pitching himself against European nations, in particular those that chose to take a peace dividend after the end of the Cold War and disinvest significantly in their armed forces.

However, Moscow’s decision to launch its illegal invasion has galvanised Western allies in a way not seen since the Cold War.

Countries like Germany and France that for years have failed to meet a minimum requirement of the NATO military alliance to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence are suddenly digging into their coffers and pledging to rebuild their militaries, while also supplying an increasingly lethal array of arms to Ukraine.

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There is a belated realisation that a world order that grew from the ashes of the Second World War, which benefitted democracies to the detriment of authoritarian regimes, is suddenly at peril.

The big question, though, is whether this will be enough to enable Ukraine to claw back all of its land or whether some kind of messy accommodation may ultimately have to be reached.

World

Body pulled from mine after police cut off supplies to ‘smoke out’ thousands of illegal miners

Published

5 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Body pulled from mine after police cut off supplies to 'smoke out' thousands of illegal miners

A body has been recovered from a South African mine after police cut off basic supplies in an effort to force around 4,000 illegal miners to resurface.

The body has emerged from the closed gold mine in the northwest town of Stilfontein a day after South Africa’s government said it would not help the illegal miners.

Around 20 people have surfaced from the mineshaft this week as police wait nearby to arrest all those appearing from underground.

It comes a day after a cabinet minister said the government was trying to “smoke them [the miners] out”.

The move is part of the police’s “Close the Hole” operation, whereby officers cut off supplies of food, water and other basic necessities to get those who have entered illegally to come out.

Local reports suggest the supply routes were cut off at the mine around two months ago, with relatives of the miners seen in the area as the stand-off continues.

A decomposed body was brought up on Thursday, with pathologists on the scene, police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said.

It comes after South African cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told reporters on Wednesday that the government would not send any help to the illegal miners, known in the country as zama zamas, because they are involved in a criminal act.

“We are not sending help to criminals. We are going to smoke them out. They will come out. Criminals are not to be helped; criminals are to be prosecuted. We didn’t send them there,” Ms Ntshavheni said.

Senior police and defence officials are expected to visit the area on Friday to “reinforce the government’s commitment to bringing this operation to a safe and lawful conclusion”, according to a media advisory from the police.

In the last few weeks, over 1,000 miners have surfaced at various mines in South Africa’s North West province, where police have cut off supplies.

Many of the miners were reported to be weak, hungry and sickly after going for weeks without basic supplies.

Illegal mining remains common in South Africa’s old gold-mining areas, with miners going into closed shafts to dig for any possible remaining deposits.

The illegal miners are often from neighbouring countries, and police say the illegal operations involve larger syndicates that employ the miners.

Their presence in closed mines has also created problems with nearby communities, which complain that the illegal miners commit crimes ranging from robberies to rape.

Illegal mining groups are known to be heavily armed and disputes between rival groups sometimes result in fatal confrontations.

World

Ukrainian frontline commander warns: ‘The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem’

Published

8 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Ukrainian frontline commander warns: 'The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem'

In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.

We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.

The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.

They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.

War latest: Russia ready to carry out ‘massive attack’

Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.

Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.

He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.

His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.

‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’

Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.

We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.

“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.

He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.

Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.

Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.

“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.

‘The world is scared of Russia’

It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.

Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.

A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.

He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.

“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”

Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.

Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.

If President-elect Donald Trump cuts the supply of military aid, the Ukrainians will lose – it’s that simple.

Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.

“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”

Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.

He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.

“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.

‘Losing will be not only our problem’

These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.

Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.

Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.

“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.

But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.

“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”

Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.

World

Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued – as country counts flooding cost

Published

8 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued - as country counts flooding cost

A weather warning has been issued for parts of Spain, as the country counts the cost of recent flooding.

The orange warnings are in place for parts of southwestern Spain – the area around Seville down towards Gibraltar.

Up to 8cm (3ins) of rain could fall within 12 hours, but the weekend looks much more settled in the country.

The latest warnings come just two weeks after flash flooding in Valencia and other parts of the country killed more than 200 people.

Malaga saw 14.2cm (5.6ins) of rainfall on Wednesday – Spain’s highest of the day – most of which fell in six hours.

All train services were halted in Malaga. Some flights have now resumed after the initial disruption.

Emergency services in the province have moved 3,000 people from homes at risk of flooding close to the Guadalhorce River in the west of the city.

Jamie Marchant, 29, from Caerphilly in South Wales travelled to Malaga last Wednesday.

He told Sky News that “debris” had been left behind by the recent rainfall in the region.

“Everyone is pitching in to clean up and some shops are opening as usual,” he added.

Orange warnings for the Valencia region in eastern Spain expired earlier on Thursday.

The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.

Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.