In the year since Russia launched a full-scale attack on its neighbour, Ukrainian troops have retaken huge swathes of territory and look to be preparing for a fresh counterattack.
Armed with NATO battle tanks (and perhaps eventually F-16 fighter jets), will Ukraine’s armed forces be able to once again punch through Russian lines in the east or liberate all of occupied Zaporizhzhia? What about taking back Crimea?
Sky News spoke to military experts about the year ahead – and there was some disagreement about who would be in control of several Ukrainian cities by the end of February.
Will Ukraine start the year with a loss?
Russian forces continue to send unrelenting attacks against Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut on the eastern frontline.
Image: Ukrainian soldiers artillery near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region as they face relentless attacks
It appears that the tide there may be beginning to turn against Ukraine, but doubt has been cast on whether Bakhmut has much tactical or strategic importance.
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Whatever happens, Ukraine’s defence of the city has inflicted horrific numbers of casualties on Russia
Now as the muddy ground hardens, attention is turning to possible spring offensives – when tanks and vehicles will be able to move off-road once more.
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2:23
Injured soldiers return to frontline
Could Putin claim success and call for a ceasefire?
Military analyst Sean Bell says Vladimir Putin could keep his focus on the Donbas region – most of which it occupies – and call for a ceasefire.
“If Putin could take the whole of the Donbas there is the potential for him to declare success in this war and say “I’m going to sue for peace now” which buys him time, adds Mr Bell.
“Would Zelenskyy want that? Absolutely not.”
But the West could apply pressure to President Zelenskyy to call an end to a war and tell him “you can’t win this”.
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‘We are working very hard with Britain’
At the same time, explains Mr Bell, the West would promise the Ukrainian leader that they would help rebuild his country and provide security guarantees.
He adds: “Russia has tried to stop the expansion of NATO. It has failed.
“Russia wants to be great again. It has failed.
“Russia wants its economy to grow. It has been damaged.
“So Russia has lost this even if it ends up taking some gains.”
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0:35
‘UK will support others to send jets’
Ukraine to push Russians out of almost all territory?
So does that mean Ukraine does not have a chance of liberating the Donbas? Military analyst Phil Ingram believes that Kyiv’s forces could accomplish that feat, however daunting it may look.
He tells Sky News that the “best” Ukraine can hope for is pushing Russian forces out of all of the mainland, including parts of the east that have been occupied since 2014.
“They could do that in two or three big operations,” he says.
But he adds: “I don’t think they will have the wherewithal to be able to attack and recapture Crimea at this stage.
“I think that is a 2024 initiative, but is firmly on the cards for them to do.”
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1:16
Putin: ‘There is a fight on our historic borders’
Will there be an ‘off-ramp’ for Putin to end the war?
There’s often talk that in order for Vladimir Putin to agree to stop his war in Ukraine, he needs to be given an option that will allow him to save face. An “off-ramp” from the road to more destruction, some have called it.
But is this at all likely?
“One of the key problems with the search for ‘off-ramps’ is the way that both sides’ red lines clash with one another,” says Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody, a lecturer in politics and international studies at the Open University.
Image: Putin attends a wreath laying ceremony in Moscow
Giving the examples of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the bogus referenda in the Donbas last year, she said Russia tries to create legal cover for its actions.
She told Sky News: “When you look at how these episodes transpired, Putin’s actions give no indication that he’s interested in an off-ramp. He seems constantly to be doubling down.
“But I think it’s important not to interpret this as a need to make concessions – after all, this invasion went ahead precisely because the more conciliatory approach to previous Russian provocations essentially showed that strategic gains can be made at little lasting cost. That not – and shouldn’t be – the case here.”
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Putin says Russia is to strengthen its nuclear potential.
Is China going to send arms to Moscow?
The last few weeks have not been the best for China-US relations, to put it mildly.
There was the spy balloon(s)which resulted in American fighter jets shooting down at least one suspected Chinese surveillance balloon in US airspace. And then there were warnings about Ukraine.
“There are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons,” Antony Blinken told NBC last week, adding that Washington would soon release more details.
Western intelligence indicates that the kind of supplies China is considering giving Russia would be aimed at backfilling stocks of weapons that Russia was using up on the battlefield in Ukraine, a European official told the Associated Press.
Speaking at a security conference in Munich, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi called for dialogue and suggested European countries “think calmly” about how to end the war.
He added that there were “some forces that seemingly don’t want negotiations to succeed, or for the war to end soon”, without specifying who those forces were.
The Kremlin has turned to countries like Iran and North Korea for help so far, but if China were to step up its support to include weapons for use in Ukraine it could change the course of the war – and likely provoke a response from NATO.
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Former US National Security Adviser John Bolton on China and Russia relations
Unity of the West will affect battles to come
Professor Michael Clarke says the resolve of Western nations who have been supporting Ukraine will be important in the year ahead.
Countries are being tested by shortages and high energy prices, he says.
He tells Sky News: “If the West can remain cohesive, if it can remain united in its opposition and its determination to make sure that the Ukrainians prevail in this conflict, then things will get a lot better.
“Because the balance of advantages turns against the Russians from the spring… if the Ukrainians can hold the big (Russian) offensive.”
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6:01
Ukraine war a ‘battle of logistics’
As we saw with the Kharkiv offensive in September 2022, one push at the right time can see thousands of square miles of territory liberated – or captured.
With Ukraine soon to be armed with NATO tanks, authorities in Kyiv will be hoping their armed forces can build on their victories over the last year and recapture still more of their country.
Australia’s prime minister was met with boos and insults when he arrived at a Bondi Beach vigil for victims of last week’s gun attack.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was booed when his name was announced on the stage set up in front of the crowd – amid anger that the premier hasn’t done more to tackle rising antisemitism in Australia.
In contrast, New South Wales Premier Chris Minns’s name was greeted with cheers and a standing ovation.
The premier was thanked for his leadership and for not missing “a funeral, synagogue service, or an opportunity to be with the Jewish community this week”.
Before going to the vigil, Albanese had announced a review of the country’s police and intelligence agencies a week after the deadly Bondi Beach gun attack.
Albanese said the review, led by a former chief of Australia’s spy agency, would probe whether federal police and intelligence agencies have the “right powers, structures, processes and sharing arrangements in place to keep Australians safe”.
Authorities invited Australians to light a candle on Sunday evening, the start of the eighth and final day of the Jewish festival of lights, “as a quiet act of remembrance with family, friends or loved ones” of the victims.
Image: Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his wife arrive at a Bondi Beach attack vigil
An evening memorial event at Bondi Beach will take place under a heavy police presence, including officers carrying long-arm firearms, police said in a statement.
A minute’s silence was also held at 6.47pm (7.47am UK time).
Earlier this week, around 700 people on paddle boards and surfboards took to the sea at Bondi Beach, forming a huge circle in a show of solidarity.
A minute of reflection
As the heat of Sydney’s summer started to drop away, thousands of people came out to Bondi to support the Jewish community in a day of National Reflection.
They covered the hillside above Bondi. A sea of people standing in solidarity.
There was a minute of silence, though it felt much longer as the usual din of Bondi faded away to stillness.
People hugged each other, sat quietly and there were also tears.
It has been a confronting and deeply emotional week for the Jewish community in Bondi, as they struggle to comprehend the scale of the tragedy that has struck them.
The rest of Australia has struggled too. People are shocked that a mass shooting could happen in this normally peaceful country.
People are angry that the strict gun laws failed to keep firearms out of people with extremist ideology.
Jewish people are angry at the government for failing to curb a rise of antisemitic attacks since the Israel-Gaza war started.
After the memorial I spoke with three of Sydney’s Jewish rabbis from the Emmanuel Synagogue. They said that when it comes to hate speech and antisemitism “words matter”.
But there are few words of comfort to offer a community still so shaken and raw from the massacre of one week ago.
Gaps in the system
The attack exposed gaps in gun-license assessments and information-sharing between agencies that politicians have said they want to plug.
Albanese has announced a nationwide gun buyback, while gun safety experts say the nation’s gun laws, among the world’s toughest, are full of loopholes.
Authorities believe the gunmen were inspired by Islamic State.
“The ISIS-inspired atrocity last Sunday reinforces the rapidly changing security environment in our nation.
“Our security agencies must be in the best position to respond,” Albanese said in a statement, adding that the review would conclude by the end of April.
Albanese has been under pressure from critics who say his centre-left government has not done enough to curb a surge in antisemitism since the start of the war in Gaza.
The prime minister has since vowed to strengthen hate laws in the wake of the attack.
On Saturday, the government of New South Wales, which includes Sydney, committed to introducing a bill to ban the display of symbols and flags of “terrorist organisations”, including those of Islamic State, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Authorities say Islamic State flags were found in the car the attackers took to Bondi.
One of the alleged gunmen, Sajid Akram, 50, was shot dead by police at the scene.
His 24-year-old son Naveed Akram, who was also shot by police and emerged from a coma on Tuesday, has been charged with 59 offences, including murder and terrorism, according to police.
Several victims of Jeffrey Epstein have told Sky News that the incomplete release of the files relating to the dead paedophile financier have left them feeling shocked, outraged and disappointed.
Thousands of files relating to Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, were made public late on Friday – but only a fraction of them have been released so far, with many heavily redacted.
‘Nothing transparent about release’
Marina Lacerda, a Brazilian-born survivor who suffered sexual abuse by Epstein as a teenager, expressed her disappointment over the incomplete release, calling it “a slap in our faces”.
“We were all excited yesterday before the files came out,” she told Sky News presenter Anna Botting.
“And when they did come out, we were just in shock, and we see that there is nothing there that is transparent. So it’s very sad, it’s very disappointing.”
Ms Lacera said she had just turned 14 when she met Epstein before “our relationship, our friendship I should say” ended when she was 17.
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There is nothing transparent about Epstein files release, Marina Lacerda says
“At that point, he had made it very clear to me that I was old, that I was no longer fun for him. So, he booted me out, and I was no longer needed for him,” she said.
The Department of Justice (DoJ) suggests that 1,200 victims and their families have effectively been shielded from view in the released documents.
Ms Lacera said: “From what I know, [the number of Epstein victims] is over a thousand, but that’s just what the DoJ can collect or the FBI can collect, but I presume there may be more than that.”
Image: Marina Lacerda spoke outside the US Capitol in favour of the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Pic: AP
‘No way it’s not a cover-up’
Ashley Rubright met the late sex offender when she was just 15 in Palm Beach and was subject to abuse over several years.
Asked about her dissatisfaction with yesterday’s government release and if there was a sense of a cover-up operation, she noted that there had been knowledge of Epstein’s crimes “for so, so long”.
“There’s no way that there’s not a cover-up – what it is, I don’t know,” she told Sky News’ US correspondent James Matthews.
“I just hope that nobody’s allowed to fly under the radar with their involvement.”
Ashley Rubright says ‘there’s no way there’s not a cover-up’
Regarding the extent of the redactions, she said: “I’m so not shocked, but let down. Disappointed.
“Seeing […] completely redacted pages, there’s no way that that’s just to protect the victims’ identities, and there better be a good reason. I just don’t know if we’ll ever know what that is.
“We’ve been left behind since day one. That’s why I think we’re all fighting so loud now, because we’re tired of it.”
Image: Ashley Rubright speaks at a rally in support of Epstein victims. Pic: Reuters
‘He wanted to man-handle me’
Another survivor, Alicia Arden, told Sky News that she met Epstein in a California hotel room in 1997 for an audition, when she was a 25-year-old model and actress.
“He let me in and he started looking over my portfolio, which is customary to do in a talent audition, and then he insinuated, ‘oh, you should come closer to me and let me see your body’,” she said.
Epstein then started “taking off my top and my pants and touching my rear end and my breasts”.
“He goes, ‘let me come over here and spin for me and let me man-handle you. Let me man-handle you.’ And I got very nervous and started to cry. I said, ‘I have to go, Jeffrey. I don’t really think this is gonna work out’,” Ms Arden said.
“He got a phone call and I was crying in front of him. And he said, ‘I have this beautiful girl in front of me and she’s very upset’. I said ‘I’m gonna leave’ and he offered me $100 and I said ‘I’m not a prostitute’.”
Image: Alicia Arden
She said she went to the Santa Monica Police Department to file a report.
“That was as difficult, and I’m like shaking telling you, but as difficult as being in the hotel room with him because they weren’t supportive at all about it,” she said. Her redacted report was included in previous files.
‘Epstein was a monster’
Asked what she thought about Epstein now, she said: “He’s a monster […] and just horrible. I mean, I’m trembling thinking about him and talking about him.
“If I could do anything, I’m happy I got the police report filed. If they would have pursued him and maybe gone over the hotel [where he was] essentially living, then I could have maybe saved the girls. I’ve always thought that.”
Image: Ms Arden’s redacted police report. Pic: AP
Ms Arden does not believe she has seen justice as one of Epstein’s victims.
“I want to see all of the files come out. I want all of the men in there or women that were trafficking these girls, and they shouldn’t be able to walk around free and not pay for if they did something,” she said.
“They should be actually arrested if they’re in the files and it’s proven that they did horrible things to these girls, and they should lose their jobs, their lives, their homes, their money, and pay for what they did, and it was all supposed to come out, and it hasn’t.”
Image: Jeffrey Epstein died in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on federal sex trafficking charges
‘I feel redeemed’ by file release
Maria Farmer, who made a complaint to the Miami FBI in 1996 in which she alleged that Epstein stole and sold photos she had taken of her 12- and 16-year-old sisters, expressed gratitude for the release of the files.
“This is amazing. Thank you for believing me. I feel redeemed. This is one of the best days of my life,” she said in a statement through her lawyers.
“I’m crying for two reasons. I want everyone to know that I am shedding tears of joy for myself, but also tears of sorrow for all the other victims that the FBI failed.”
Image: Annie Farmer holds a photo of herself and her sister, Maria Farmer, when they were victims of Epstein. Pic: AP
A positive-leaning reaction also came from Dani Bensky, who said she was sexually abused by Epstein when she was 17 years old.
She told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News: “There is part of me that feels a bit validated at this moment, because I think so many of us have been saying, ‘No, this is real, like, we’re not a hoax’.
“There’s so much information, and yet not as much as we may have wanted to see.”
‘It is not over’
Lawyer Gloria Allred, who has represented several Epstein victims, told Sky News about the partial release on Friday: “It’s very disappointing that all of the files were not released yesterday as required and, in fact, mandated by law.
“The law didn’t say they could do this over a period of time, it didn’t say that weeks could go by.”
Image: Lawyer Gloria Allred
Deputy attorney general Mr Blanche said additional file disclosures can be expected by the end of the year.
“But that’s not what the law says. So clearly, the law has been violated. And it’s the Department of Justice letting down the survivors once again,” Ms Allred said.
The lawyer labelled the incomplete release of the files a “distraction”, adding: “This is not over, and it won’t be over until we get the truth and transparency for the survivors.”
The tranche of material was released just hours before a legal deadline in the US following the passing of the Epstein Files Transparency Act – and at the same time as a US strike targeting Islamic State fighters in Syria.
The US deputy attorney general, Todd Blanche, said the justice department was continuing to review the remaining files and was withholding some documents under exemptions meant to protect the victims.
Epstein files release has become ‘a political football’
Meanwhile, the justice department has defended the redactions made in the released files.
“The only redactions being applied to the documents are those required by law – full stop. Consistent with the statute and applicable laws, we are not redacting the names of individuals or politicians unless they are a victim,” it quoted deputy attorney general Mr Blanche in a post on X.
The Trump administration has claimed to be the most transparent in history.
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In a statement, the White House claimed the release also demonstrated its commitment to justice for Epstein’s victims, criticising previous Democratic administrations for not doing the same.
But that statement ignored that the disclosures only happened because Congress forced the administration’s hand with a bill demanding the release, after Trump officials declared earlier this year that no more Epstein files would be made public.
Initial searches for Trump’s name within the Department of Justice search function returned nothing, while the presence of former president Bill Clinton, on the other hand, was everywhere.
It is PR strategy 101 – front-load the release of documents with the Democrat stuff and save any possible Trump content for a soft landing sometime between Christmas and New Year.
By that time, the public will have softened its focus on the story – it’s what the festive season does.
The presence of celebrity in the latest release might also feather Trump’s bed.
It’s clear that iconic superstars like Mick Jagger and Diana Ross were courted by Epstein as innocents, ignorant of his criminality. To see them in the files cements a narrative of a monster who lured the unsuspecting into his orbit.
We support Jagger and Ross as treasured icons, so we remind ourselves that simply being included in the files doesn’t equate to wrongdoing or knowledge of it. In turn, it shapes an empathy around the predicament that will extend to Trump and, perhaps, the benefit of any doubt.
Of course, not everyone will see it that way – the people who see a cynical exercise in delay and obfuscation, constituting a gross insult to the Epstein survivors at the heart of the story.
Image: Jeffrey Epstein and Michael Jackson. Pic: US DoJ
For all the talk (by the Trump administration) of a tight time scale and a willingness to act transparently, survivors and their supporters point out that Donald Trump could have published all the Epstein files long ago, never mind drip feed them with wide-ranging redactions.
Not to have done so is an affront to them and an attempt to evade accountability.
For all the talk about the release of the files, their significance is undermined by the lack of context. We are shown pictures and documents that reflect the life of a thoroughly unpleasant individual who inflicted suffering on an industrial scale. But with redactions, and without explanations, we are left having to join the dots in an effort to establish criminal behaviour and blame.
It is a level of uncertainty surrounding the Epstein files and a source of dissatisfaction to survivors, for whom justice further delayed is justice further denied.