Ukraine war: What lies ahead in year two? Here is what the experts think

Published

2 years ago

February 25, 2023

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In the year since Russia launched a full-scale attack on its neighbour, Ukrainian troops have retaken huge swathes of territory and look to be preparing for a fresh counterattack.

Armed with NATO battle tanks (and perhaps eventually F-16 fighter jets), will Ukraine’s armed forces be able to once again punch through Russian lines in the east or liberate all of occupied Zaporizhzhia? What about taking back Crimea?

Sky News spoke to military experts about the year ahead – and there was some disagreement about who would be in control of several Ukrainian cities by the end of February.

Will Ukraine start the year with a loss?

Russian forces continue to send unrelenting attacks against Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut on the eastern frontline.

The city was razed to the ground during eight months of brutal fighting, drawing comparisons with the desolation of the First World War.

It appears that the tide there may be beginning to turn against Ukraine, but doubt has been cast on whether Bakhmut has much tactical or strategic importance.

Whatever happens, Ukraine’s defence of the city has inflicted horrific numbers of casualties on Russia

Now as the muddy ground hardens, attention is turning to possible spring offensives – when tanks and vehicles will be able to move off-road once more.

Could Putin claim success and call for a ceasefire?

Military analyst Sean Bell says Vladimir Putin could keep his focus on the Donbas region – most of which it occupies – and call for a ceasefire.

“If Putin could take the whole of the Donbas there is the potential for him to declare success in this war and say “I’m going to sue for peace now” which buys him time, adds Mr Bell.

“Would Zelenskyy want that? Absolutely not.”

But the West could apply pressure to President Zelenskyy to call an end to a war and tell him “you can’t win this”.

At the same time, explains Mr Bell, the West would promise the Ukrainian leader that they would help rebuild his country and provide security guarantees.

He adds: “Russia has tried to stop the expansion of NATO. It has failed.

“Russia wants to be great again. It has failed.

“Russia wants its economy to grow. It has been damaged.

“So Russia has lost this even if it ends up taking some gains.”

Ukraine to push Russians out of almost all territory?

So does that mean Ukraine does not have a chance of liberating the Donbas? Military analyst Phil Ingram believes that Kyiv’s forces could accomplish that feat, however daunting it may look.

He tells Sky News that the “best” Ukraine can hope for is pushing Russian forces out of all of the mainland, including parts of the east that have been occupied since 2014.

“They could do that in two or three big operations,” he says.

But he adds: “I don’t think they will have the wherewithal to be able to attack and recapture Crimea at this stage.

“I think that is a 2024 initiative, but is firmly on the cards for them to do.”

Will there be an ‘off-ramp’ for Putin to end the war?

There’s often talk that in order for Vladimir Putin to agree to stop his war in Ukraine, he needs to be given an option that will allow him to save face. An “off-ramp” from the road to more destruction, some have called it.

But is this at all likely?

“One of the key problems with the search for ‘off-ramps’ is the way that both sides’ red lines clash with one another,” says Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody, a lecturer in politics and international studies at the Open University.

Giving the examples of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the bogus referenda in the Donbas last year, she said Russia tries to create legal cover for its actions.

She told Sky News: “When you look at how these episodes transpired, Putin’s actions give no indication that he’s interested in an off-ramp. He seems constantly to be doubling down.

“But I think it’s important not to interpret this as a need to make concessions – after all, this invasion went ahead precisely because the more conciliatory approach to previous Russian provocations essentially showed that strategic gains can be made at little lasting cost. That not – and shouldn’t be – the case here.”

Is China going to send arms to Moscow?

The last few weeks have not been the best for China-US relations, to put it mildly.

There was the spy balloon(s) which resulted in American fighter jets shooting down at least one suspected Chinese surveillance balloon in US airspace. And then there were warnings about Ukraine.

In a dramatic move, the US Secretary of State told China there will be “consequences” if Beijing provides material support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

“There are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons,” Antony Blinken told NBC last week, adding that Washington would soon release more details.

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Western intelligence indicates that the kind of supplies China is considering giving Russia would be aimed at backfilling stocks of weapons that Russia was using up on the battlefield in Ukraine, a European official told the Associated Press.

Speaking at a security conference in Munich, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi called for dialogue and suggested European countries “think calmly” about how to end the war.

He added that there were “some forces that seemingly don’t want negotiations to succeed, or for the war to end soon”, without specifying who those forces were.

Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the war have hampered its economy and its ability to replace the resources it is losing in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has turned to countries like Iran and North Korea for help so far, but if China were to step up its support to include weapons for use in Ukraine it could change the course of the war – and likely provoke a response from NATO.

Unity of the West will affect battles to come

Professor Michael Clarke says the resolve of Western nations who have been supporting Ukraine will be important in the year ahead.

Countries are being tested by shortages and high energy prices, he says.

He tells Sky News: “If the West can remain cohesive, if it can remain united in its opposition and its determination to make sure that the Ukrainians prevail in this conflict, then things will get a lot better.

“Because the balance of advantages turns against the Russians from the spring… if the Ukrainians can hold the big (Russian) offensive.”

As we saw with the Kharkiv offensive in September 2022, one push at the right time can see thousands of square miles of territory liberated – or captured.

With Ukraine soon to be armed with NATO tanks, authorities in Kyiv will be hoping their armed forces can build on their victories over the last year and recapture still more of their country.

World

US envoy meets Putin for talks – as Trump urges Russia to ‘get moving’ on Ukraine

Published

6 hours ago

April 11, 2025

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US envoy meets Putin for talks - as Trump urges Russia to 'get moving' on Ukraine

Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has met Vladimir Putin for talks in Russia – as the US president called on Moscow to “get moving” with ending the war in Ukraine.

Mr Witkoff, who has been pressing the Kremlin to accept a truce, visited Mr Putin in St Petersburg after earlier meeting the Russian leader’s international co-operation envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

Mr Putin was shown on state TV greeting Mr Witkoff at the city’s presidential library at the start of the latest discussions about the search for a peace deal on Ukraine.

Before Friday’s meeting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov played down expectations of a breakthrough and told state media the visit would not be “momentous”.

Follow the latest updates on the war in Ukraine

However, Sky News Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett said he believes the meeting – Mr Witkoff’s third with Mr Putin this year – is significant as a sign of the Trump administration’s “increasing frustration at the lack of progress on peace talks”.

Earlier on Friday, Mr Trump issued his latest social media statement on trying to end the war, writing on Truth Social: “Russia has to get moving. Too many people ere [sic] DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war – A war that should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened, if I were President!!!”

Dialogue between the US and Russia, aimed at agreeing a ceasefire ahead of a possible peace deal to end the war, has recently appeared to have stalled over disagreements around conditions for a full pause.

Secondary sanctions could be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil, Mr Trump has said, if he feels Moscow is dragging its feet on a deal.

Mr Putin has said he is ready in principle to agree a full ceasefire, but argues crucial conditions have yet to be agreed – and that what he calls the root causes of the war have yet to be addressed.

The Russian president wants to dismantle Ukraine as an independent, functioning state and has demanded Kyiv recognise Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and other partly occupied areas, and pull its forces out, as well as a pledge for Ukraine to never join NATO and for the size of its army to be limited.

Zelenskyy renews support calls after attack on home city

Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has renewed his appeals for more Patriot air defence systems after the deaths of 20 people, including nine children, who were killed when a Russian missile hit apartment buildings and a playground in his home city of Kryvyi Rih last week.

Speaking online at a meeting of the so-called Ramstein group of about 50 nations that provide military support to Ukraine, named after a previous meeting at America’s Ramstein air base in Germany in 2022, Mr Zelenskyy said recent Russian attacks showed Moscow was not ready to accept and implement any realistic and effective peace proposals.

Mr Zelenskyy also made his evening address to the nation, saying: “Ukraine is not just asking – we are ready to buy appropriate additional systems.”

The UK’s defence secretary, John Healy, has said this is “the critical year” for Ukraine – and has confirmed £450m in funding for a military support package.

World

Tech executive and his family die after sightseeing helicopter crashes in New York

Published

6 hours ago

April 11, 2025

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Tech executive and his family die after sightseeing helicopter crashes in New York

A family of five Spanish tourists, including three children, have been killed in a helicopter crash in New York City.

A New York City Hall spokesman identified two of those killed as Agustin Escobar, a Siemens executive, and Merce Camprubi Montal – believed to be his wife, NBC News reported.

The pilot was also killed as the aircraft crashed into the Hudson River at around 3.17pm on Thursday.

New York Police commissioner Jessica Tisch said divers had recovered all those on board from the helicopter, which was upside down in the water.

“Four victims were pronounced dead on scene and two more were removed to local area hospitals, where sadly both succumbed to their injuries,” she said.

The Spanish president Pedro Sanchez called the news “devastating”.

“An unimaginable tragedy. I share the grief of the victims’ loved ones at this heartbreaking time,” he wrote on X.

Rotor blade ‘flew off’

The aircraft was on a tourist flight of Manhattan, run by the New York Helicopters company.

Witnesses described seeing the main rotor blade flying off moments before it dropped out the sky.

Lesly Camacho, a worker at a restaurant along the river in Hoboken, said she saw the helicopter spinning uncontrollably before it slammed into the water.

“There was a bunch of smoke coming out. It was spinning pretty fast, and it landed in the water really hard,” she said.

Another witness said “the chopper blade flew off”.

“I don’t know what happened to the tail, but it just straight up dropped,” Avi Rakesh told Sky’s US partner, NBC News.

Video on social media showed parts of the Bell 206 helicopter tumbling through the air and landing in the river.

New York Mayor Eric Adams confirmed the six deaths and said authorities believed the tourists were from Spain.

He said the flight had taken off from a downtown heliport at around 3pm.

The crash happened close to Pier 40 and the Holland tunnel, which links lower Manhattan’s Tribeca neighbourhood with Jersey City to its west.

Tracking service Flight Radar 24 published what it said was the helicopter’s route, with the aircraft appearing to be in the sky for 15 minutes before the crash.

The Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board have started an investigation.

Thursday’s incident comes less than three month after 67 people died when an army helicopter and American Airlines jet collided over the Potomac River in Washington DC.

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Ksenia Karelina: Ballerina arrives home in US after ‘nightmare’ of Russian penal colony

Published

6 hours ago

April 11, 2025

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Ksenia Karelina: Ballerina arrives home in US after 'nightmare' of Russian penal colony

A former ballerina who spent more than a year in a Russian jail for donating £40 to a charity supporting Ukraine has returned home to the US after being freed in a prisoner exchange.

Ksenia Karelina landed at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland at around 11pm, local time, on Thursday.

A smiling Ms Karelina was greeted on the runway by her fiance, the professional boxer Chris van Heerden, and given flowers by Morgan Ortagus, President Donald Trump’s deputy special envoy to the Middle East.

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Van Heerden said in a statement he was “overjoyed to hear that the love of my life, Ksenia Karelina, is on her way home from wrongful detention in Russia.

“She has endured a nightmare for 15 months and I cannot wait to hold her. Our dog, Boots, is also eagerly awaiting her return.”

He thanked Mr Trump and his envoys, as well as prominent public figures who had championed her case, including Dana White, a friend of Mr Trump and CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC).

Ms Karelina, 34, a US-Russian citizen also identified as Ksenia Khavana, was accused of treason when she was arrested in Yekaterinburg, in southwestern Russia, while visiting family in February last year.

Investigators searched her mobile phone and found she made a $51.80 (£40) donation to Razom, a charity that provides aid to Ukraine, on the first day of Russia’s invasion in 2022.

She admitted the charge at a closed trial in the city in August last year and was later jailed for 12 years, to be served in a penal colony.

At a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Mr Trump, who wants to normalise relations with Moscow, said the Kremlin “released the young ballerina and she is now out, and that was good. So we appreciate that”.

He said the release followed conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian security services accused her of “proactively” collecting money for a Ukrainian organisation that was supplying gear to Kyiv’s forces.

The First Department, a Russian rights group, said the charges stemmed from a $51.80 donation to a US charity aiding Ukraine.

Washington, which had called her case “absolutely ludicrous”, released Arthur Petrov, who it was holding on charges of smuggling sensitive microelectronics to Russia, in the prisoner swap in Abu Dhabi.

Karelina was among a growing number of Americans arrested in Russia in recent years as tensions between Moscow and Washington spiked over the war in Ukraine.

Her release is the latest in a series of high-profile prisoner exchanges Russia and the US carried out in the last three years – and the second since Mr Trump took office.

White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said members of the Trump administration “continue to work around the clock to ensure Americans detained abroad are returned home to their families”.