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President Vladimir Putin might have hoped for a swift and decisive invasion of Ukraine; instead, a year on, Russia has paid a huge price for his imperial ambition.

However, time is a powerful ally for Mr Putin, and victory could still be secured.

What would some form of Russian success mean for Western security?

Putin’s frustration at Russian military incompetence will be tempered by knowing this is a David vs Goliath battle, in which Russia should prevail.

Notwithstanding Western support – upon which Ukraine is utterly dependent – Putin will know that precision weapons have a finite supply, are not easily replaced, and that Western cohesion is fragile.

Leopard 2 tank
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Leopard 2 tanks are being sent to the conflict zone

Further, NATO has no mandate, and Western nations have no appetite, to commit combatants to this conflict.

Time is Putin’s friend, and the longer the war continues, Russia regenerates as the West wearies.

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Ukraine will struggle to expel all Russian forces, so some form of victory for Russia – however unthinkable by the West – seems inevitable.

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Ukrainians defiant on anniversary

Emboldened and inspired, Putin’s Russia would present an existential threat to its westerly neighbours.

Russia’s grip around Belarus would tighten, and the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia would be vulnerable – could or would NATO resist, given the risk of escalation?

Further, a new “axis of evil” – China, Russia, North Korea and Iran – would gain traction as an ideological counter to NATO.

Defence spending is an insurance premium against an uncertain future – Putin’s invasion demonstrates the West can no longer afford to be complacent about defence, and the Cold War Peace Dividend has left significant gaps in our collective military capability.

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Analysis: A year of war

Read more:
One year of war: This is how many civilians have lost their lives
The war in Ukraine is of a kind the world has never seen before
Rishi Sunak leads minute’s silence as UK shows solidarity with Ukraine on war anniversary

Western technology has proven decisive, but precision weapons are difficult to produce, expensive to procure and with long lead times to replace.

Larger stockpiles, a greater commonality between allies, and a defence industrial strategy able to respond swiftly to changing demand, are all viable options, but at what cost?

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Minute’s silence held for Ukraine

And what is the West’s off-ramp from Ukraine, or is the West now committed to a conflict it cannot afford to lose?

NATO/Western Air Power would be decisive in this conflict, so is it inevitable that in time the West will be obliged to commit fighter pilot combatants to bring the war to an end, despite the risks?

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Ukrainians on life without war

One year on, the Ukraine conflict has evolved from a strategic Russian failure into a robust and brutal challenge to the established world order.

Ukraine has survived so far – perhaps even turned the tide – but that will be of little consequence should the international community not see the conflict through – whatever it takes.

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Australia shooting suspect identified as manhunt continues into a second day

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Australia shooting suspect identified as manhunt continues into a second day

A suspect who shot and killed two police officers and seriously injured a third in Australia’s rural south-east has been identified, police said. 

A manhunt is underway for Dezi Freeman, 56, who is heavily armed and experienced in wilderness survival skills, Victoria state’s chief commissioner of police Mike Bush told reporters.

The local residents have been urged to stay indoors.

The whereabouts of Freeman’s wife and two children were initially unknown, but Mr Bush said they had visited a police station and spoken to officers late on Tuesday night.

The shooting happened earlier on Tuesday, when 10 armed police officers tried to execute a search warrant at Freeman’s property in Porepunkah, a town of just over 1,000 people located 200 miles north-east of Melbourne.

The suspect killed two officers and injured a third. Pic: Reuters
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The suspect killed two officers and injured a third. Pic: Reuters

Porepunkah Primary School in Porepunkah, Victoria, was locked down for several hours. Pic: Reuters
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Porepunkah Primary School in Porepunkah, Victoria, was locked down for several hours. Pic: Reuters

The officers “were met by the offender and they were murdered in cold blood,” the police chief said.

Freeman killed a 59-year-old detective and a 35-year-old senior constable, Mr Bush said. Another detective was shot, but his wounds are not life-threatening.

The armed man fled alone on foot into the nearby forest, where an intensive search for him continued through the night and into Wednesday.

Porepunkah is located 200 miles north-east of Melbourne, Australia.
Image:
Porepunkah is located 200 miles north-east of Melbourne, Australia.

Mr Bush would not elaborate on the search warrant for Freeman’s property and said it was “too soon to say” if his attack on the officers was ideologically motivated.

But he told reporters that some of the officers who tried to execute the search warrant included members of a unit that investigates sexual offences and child abuse.

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Australian media widely reported that Freeman expressed so-called sovereign citizen beliefs, referencing a 2021 video from Wangaratta Magistrates’ Court in which he is seen representing himself and unsuccessfully trying to arrest a magistrate and police officers.

Members of self-proclaimed sovereign citizen movements use debunked legal theories to reject government authority.

A manhunt in Australia continues into its second day. Pic: Simon Dallinger/AAP Image/AP
Image:
A manhunt in Australia continues into its second day. Pic: Simon Dallinger/AAP Image/AP

In a 2024 finding from Victoria’s Supreme Court, where Freeman attempted to challenge a lengthy suspension of his driver’s licence, a judge noted that the man had “a history of unpleasant encounters with police officers”.

In his submissions to the court, Freeman referred to the officers as “Nazis” and “terrorist thugs”.

The chief commissioner would not say how much was known of Freeman’s beliefs before the visit to his property.

Porepunkah, famous for its vineyards and beautiful views, is a gateway to Victoria’s alpine tourist region.

On Tuesday, public buildings and the nearby airfield were shut, and the local school, with just over 100 students, was locked down for several hours before children and staff were permitted to leave.

“Be vigilant, keep yourselves safe,” Mr Bush urged residents on Wednesday. “Please don’t go outside if you don’t need to.”

Mr Bush said the suspect’s knowledge of outdoor survival skills posed a “challenge” to authorities.

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Gaza hospital rejects Israel’s claim troops ‘saw Hamas camera’ before deadly attack

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Gaza hospital rejects Israel's claim troops 'saw Hamas camera' before deadly attack

A hospital in Gaza that was hit in an Israeli strike, killing 20 people including five journalists, has rejected the Israeli military’s claim it struck the facility because it was targeting what it believed was a Hamas surveillance camera as well as people identified as militants.

The statement was part of the military’s initial inquiry into the attack on Nasser hospital in Khan Younis, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called a “tragic mishap”.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the back-to-back strikes on the largest hospital in southern Gaza were ordered because soldiers believed militants were using the camera to observe Israeli forces.

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Who were the journalists killed by Israel?

It also said it was because Israel has long believed Hamas and other militant groups are present at hospitals – though Israeli officials have rarely provided evidence to support such claims.

“This conclusion was further supported, among other reasons, by the documented military use of hospitals by the terrorist organisations throughout the war,” the IDF claimed.

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Nasser hospital in Gaza after it was damaged by an Israeli strike. Pic: AP
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Nasser hospital in Gaza after it was damaged by an Israeli strike. Pic: AP

It said six of those killed in the strike were “terrorists”.

The military chief of general staff acknowledged several “gaps” in the investigation so far, including the kind of ammunition used to take out the camera.

The military also said there is an ongoing investigation into the chain of command that approved the strike.

However, the army added: “The chief of the general staff emphasised that the IDF directs its activities solely toward military targets.”

Pics: Reuters
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Pics: Reuters

In a statement, the hospital said: “Nasser hospital categorically reject these claims and any claims made by Israeli authorities to justify attacks on hospital premises.”

Among those killed was 33-year-old Mariam Dagga, a journalist who worked for the Associated Press, Al Jazeera cameraman Mohammed Salama, Reuters contractor Hussam al Masri, Reuters photographer Moaz Abu Taha and Middle East Eye freelancer Ahmed Abu Aziz.

The IDF said journalists working for Reuters and the Associated Press “were not a target of the strike”.

Read more: Who are the journalists killed in the attack?

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Relatives and friends pray over the body of journalist Mariam Dagga. Pic: AP
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Relatives and friends pray over the body of journalist Mariam Dagga. Pic: AP

The strikes have been condemned by international leaders and human rights groups.

“The killing of journalists in Gaza should shock the world,” said United Nations Human Rights Office spokesperson Thameen Al-Kheetan.

“Not into stunned silence but into action, demanding accountability and justice.”

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The attack was described as a “double-tap” attack, which sees civilians or medical workers rushing to help those injured hit in a second strike. They have previously been seen in the wars in Ukraine and Syria.

Hospitals have been repeatedly attacked by Israeli forces throughout the 22-month war in Gaza.

The war began on 7 October 2023 when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.

Israel’s military offensive against Hamas has killed at least 62,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and militants in its count but says the majority are women and children.

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Israeli protesters demand Netanyahu does whatever it takes to bring hostages home – but is he listening?

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Israeli protesters demand Netanyahu does whatever it takes to bring hostages home - but is he listening?

Nadav is tired, frustrated and haunted, yet he smiles when we meet. For 690 days, he has been waiting for the world to change, and he’s still waiting, and hoping.

Back on 7 October 2023, his father Tal was seized by Hamas and taken to Gaza. Tal is now dead – it’s not clear when he died, but the simple, brutal fact of his death is not in doubt.

What is unknown – indeed, what cannot be known – is when Tal’s body will be returned to Israel.

“My dad is still being held captive, although he is not alive. My life is stuck,” Nadav tells me. “In order to continue living and start the healing process, we need them home and we need the war to be over.”

Pic: Ilia Yefimovich/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
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Pic: Ilia Yefimovich/picture-alliance/dpa/AP

Around him, banners, signs and the sounds of another day of national protest. Motorways were brought to a halt, huge numbers of people went on strike, all in the name of demanding that the Israeli government do more to prioritise the return of all the hostages.

In Nadav’s mind, that means searching for compromise and negotiating a ceasefire that ends the war and allows for the return of all the hostages – believed to number 20 who are still alive, and a further 30 who have died.

“We have seen that just using military strength is not enough,” he says. “We now have to do whatever it takes, even if it’s not perfect.”

“Even if that means negotiating with Hamas?” I ask. He nods. “This war has to come to an end.”

It is a theme we hear again and again. In the crowds that pour into Hostages Square, there is almost unanimity.

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Protests in Israel ‘lack sufficient backing’

“The prime minister is acting like a tyrant,” declares one man as he marches down the street. “He doesn’t listen to us – his subjects. He just listens to the people in his cabinet who think that war is always the answer.”

Around us, we regularly see people wearing T-shirts with the slogan “Stam Wars”, written in the familiar Star Wars style.

Protesters in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. Pic: Ilia Yefimovich/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
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Protesters in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. Pic: Ilia Yefimovich/picture-alliance/dpa/AP

It is a biting comment dressed up as a joke – stam is a derogatory slang word, basically meaning pointless. “Our soldiers are being sacrificed,” says Yoram, as he strolls down the road towards the square.

This, of course, is no random sample. Among the crowd are many who viscerally dislike Benjamin Netanyahu, and the truth is that his supporters would be unlikely to join this crowd.

Read more:
Analysis: Israel says it’s not targeting journalists – but it is certainly killing a lot of them
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And yet they all want the same thing. The prime minister insists that the return of the hostages is his driving motivation, just as the people we spoke to told us that getting back the hostages was their ambition.

The difference is that Netanyahu seems unwilling to negotiate, and is convinced that the way to push Hamas into submission is to attack them relentlessly. Those on the protest, including relatives and loved ones of the hostages, are calling for talks to be placed ahead of tanks.

Is Netanyahu worried? Probably not. Just as the protesters were gathering in Hostages Square, Israel’s security cabinet was meeting to discuss the future of the war. Plans to encircle and occupy Gaza City were discussed. Proposals for a ceasefire were, apparently, not even mentioned.

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