Rivian (RIVN) is set to release Q4 and full year results for 2022 on Tuesday, February 28, after the market close in what is shaping up to be a significant one as the young EV maker looks to overcome recent hurdles as it ramps production.
Here’s a brief preview of what Wall St and investors expect from Rivian’s fourth quarter results.
Rivian Q4 2022 deliveries
Rivian revealed last month it had produced 10,020 electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois manufacturing facility during Q4 2022 while delivering 8,054 during the same period.
For the full year, Rivian produced 24,337 EVs and delivered 20,332. Despite slightly missing the company’s 25,000 full-year production guidance, it’s still an impressive accomplishment, given it only produced 1,015 vehicles by the end of 2021 (delivering 920).
Rivian’s Illinois factory will be capable of producing 150,000 EVs annually when it’s fully operational (with plans to increase it to 200,000), but until then, the automaker continues to burn through cash.
Rivian profitability
On a recent analyst call, Rivian’s CEO RJ Scaringe said it’s been a “challenging year” as the company launched four products (two versions of the EV van, the R1T, and the R1S) while trying to scale production.
In the third quarter of 2022, Rivian’s losses widened to $1.7 billion, as the company said on its Q3 earnings call:
As we produce vehicles at low volumes on production lines designed for higher volumes, we have and will continue to experience negative gross profit related to labor, depreciation, and overhead costs.
Rivian is working to improve its capital efficiency by ramping up manufacturing capabilities. The company recently added a second shift to accelerate production.
The company has noted it has the funds ($13.3 billion cash and equivalent) necessary to continue operations until at least 2025 with a substantial long-term contract from Amazon to supply over 100,000 Rivian EDVs, slated to roll out by 2030.
Rivian Q4 and full-year 2022 earnings expectations
Analysts expect Rivian to report earnings-per-share (EPS) of $-1.94 compared to $-1.88 in the third quarter.
In addition, Rivian is forecasted to report Q4 revenue of $742 million, up from $536 million in the third quarter and only $52 million in the same period last year.
Wall Street is expecting Rivian to continue burning cash with losses to remain around the same as in Q3 with about $1.7 billion.
Rivian Q4 earnings preview: What to look for
The biggest issue Rivian is facing right now is that it’s losing money on every vehicle it produces. The company was losing as much as three times ($1.7 billion loss with just over $500 million in revenue) what it was charging per vehicle in the third quarter, and that trend is expected to continue for some time.
Scaringe says these issues are “well understood” as the company shifts its focus to reducing costs and driving volume this year, which will steer them toward positive gross margins.
As the company works to lower costs and improve operating efficiency, Rivian announced earlier this month it would be laying off 6% of its workforce.
RIVN stock is down over 70% in the past year as investors have fled for safer assets.
If the company wants to regain investor confidence, it will start by showing it has a clear path toward positive gross margins. Even if Rivian makes great EVs, if it can’t build them profitably, investors will not be interested.
Check back tomorrow for Rivian’s Q4 earnings results.
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National Grid Renewables has broken ground on its 100 MW Apple River Solar Project in Polk County, Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin solar farm, which will use US-made First Solar Series 6 Plus bifacial modules, will be constructed by The Boldt Company, creating 150 construction and service jobs. Apple River Solar will generate over $36 million in direct economic benefits over its first 20 years.
Once it comes online in late 2025, Apple River Solar will supply clean energy to Xcel Energy, which serves customers throughout the Upper Midwest. According to National Grid Renewables, the solar farm will generate enough energy to power around 26,000 homes annually. It will also offset about 129,900 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year – equivalent to taking 30,900 cars off the road.
“We are excited to see this project begin as it underscores our dedication to delivering clean, reliable and affordable energy to our customers,” said Karl Hoesly, President, Xcel Energy-Wisconsin and Michigan. “This project is an important step in those goals while bringing significant economic benefits to Polk County and the local townships.”
Electrekreported in February that Xcel Energy, Minnesota’s largest utility, expects to cut more than 80% – and possibly up to 88% – of its emissions by 2030, putting it on track to hit Minnesota’s goal of net zero by 2040. It also says it’s on track to achieve its clean energy goals for all the Upper Midwest states it serves – Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Michigan.
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Tesla has announced that it will finally deliver 500 kW charging as it is about to install its long-awaited V4 Supercharger cabinets.
The rollout of Supercharger V4 has been a strange one, to say the least.
Tesla has been deploying the new charging stations for two years and calling them “Supercharger V4”, but it has only been deploying the charging stalls.
Supercharger stations are made of two main parts: the stalls, which are where the charging cable is located, and the cabinets, which are generally located further back and include all the power electronics.
For all these new “Supercharger V4”, Tesla was actually using Supercharger V3 cabinets. This has been limiting the power output of the charging stations to 250 kW – although
Today, Tesla officially announced its “V4 Cabinet”, which the automaker claims will enable of “delivering up to 500kW for cars and 1.2MW for Semi.”
Here are the main features of the V4 Cabinet as per Tesla:
Faster charging: Supports 400V-1000V vehicle architectures, including 30% faster charging for Cybertruck. S3XY vehicles enjoy 250kW charge rates they already experience on V3 Cabinet — charging up to 200 miles in 15 minutes.
Faster deployments: V4 Cabinet powers 8 posts, 2X the stalls per cabinet. Lower footprint and complexity = more sites coming online faster.
Next-generation hardware: Cutting-edge power electronics designed to be the most reliable on the planet, with 3X power density enabling higher throughput with lower costs.
Tesla reports that its first sites with the new V4 Cabinets are going into permitting now. The company expects its first sites to open next year.
We recently reported about Tesla’s new Oasis Supercharger project, which includes larger solar arrays and battery packs to operate the charging station mostly off-grid.
Early in the deployment of the Supercharger network, Tesla promised to add solar arrays and batteries to all Supercharger stations, and Musk even said that most stations would be able to operate off-grid.
While Tesla did add solar and batteries to a few stations, the vast majority of them don’t have their own power system or have only minimal solar canopies.
Back in 2016, I asked Musk about this, and he said that it would now happen as Tesla had the “pieces now in place” with Supercharger V3, Powerpack V2, and SolarCity:
It took about 8 years, but it sounds like the pieces are now getting actually in place with Supercharger V4, Megapacks, and this new Oasis project.
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Hyundai has a new secret weapon it’s about ready to unleash. To revamp the brand in China and counter BYD’s surge, Hyundai is launching a new AI-powered EV next year. The new model will be Hyundai’s first dedicated electric car for the world’s largest EV market.
With the help of Haomo, a Chinese autonomous startup, Hyundai will launch its first EV equipped with generative AI. It will also be its first model designed specifically for China.
A Hyundai Motor official said (via The Korea Herald) the company is “working to load the software” onto the new EV model, “which will be released in the Chinese market next year.” The spokesperson added, “The level of autonomous driving is somewhere between 2 and 2.5.”
In comparison, Tesla’s Autopilot is considered a level 2 advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) on the SAE scale (0 to 5), meaning it offers limited hands-free features.
With Autopilot, you still have to keep your eyes on the road and hands on the steering wheel, or the system will notify you and eventually disengage.
Haomo’s system, DriveGPT, unveiled last spring, takes inspiration from the OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT.
The system can continuously update in real-time to optimize decision-making by absorbing traffic data patterns. According to Haomo, DriveGPT is used in around 20 models as it looks to play a bigger role in China.
Hyundai hopes new AI-powered EV boosts sales in China
Electric vehicle sales continue surging in China. According to Rho Motion, China set another EV sales record last month with 1.2 million units sold, up 50% from October 2023.
Over 8.4 million EVs were sold in China in the first ten months of 2024, a notable 38% increase from last year.
BYD continues to dominate its home market. According to Autovista24, BYD accounted for 32.9% of all PHEV and EV (NEV) sales in China through September, with over half of the top 20 best-selling EV models.
Tesla was second with a 6.5% share of the market, but keep in mind these numbers only include plug-in models (PHEV).
Like most foreign automakers, Hyundai is struggling to keep up with the influx of low-cost electric models in China. Beijing Hyundai’s sales have been slipping since 2017. Through September, Korean automaker’s share of the Chinese market fell to just 1.2%.
According to local reports, Hyundai is partnering with other local tech companies like Thundersoft, a smart cockpit provider, and others in China to power up its next-gen EVs
With its first AI-powered EV launching next year, Hyundai hopes to turn things around in the region quickly. The new model will be one of five to launch in China through 2026.
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