Windsor Framework: What role will EU rules continue to play in Northern Ireland?
Forget the politics. The plaudits. The tiny number of entries on the rebellion spreadsheets. The cries that Brexit is over. Forget the reports saying it’s been Rishi Sunak’s best day since becoming prime minister.
Arguably what matters much more is the massive further constitutional and political change set to be enacted within our borders – largely affecting Northern Ireland. Just how big a deal is this really?
The PM announced a deal on Monday that will change Northern Ireland’s place within the EU’s single market by eradicating some EU-imposed checks that had to be carried out on goods heading west over the Irish sea.
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However, this deal will not end EU law in Northern Ireland nor the ultimate oversight of EU judges in limited circumstances – something which Rishi Sunak has been candid about, but nevertheless places that nation on a different course from the rest of the UK.
And far from playing down the differences across the Union of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak has been selling Northern Ireland’s special status and different constitutional arrangements very hard – telling everyone it is an advantage.
In Belfast, the PM described it as an “unbelievably special position” and a “unique position in the entire world” because Northern Ireland retains “privileged access” to “the European Union single market.”
Mr Sunak makes it sound so good that some people on the British mainland might start getting jealous – perhaps an odd stance coming from a Brexiteer who purported to want to leave the single market.
There is no question Sunak has negotiated an ambitious deal out of reach of his predecessors. But just how much EU law is left, and could Northern Ireland still look very different to the rest of the UK in 20 years?
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shake hands. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS
No more new EU laws?
The most remarkable part of the negotiation is the “veto” on new EU single market laws which will apply in Northern Ireland. This has attracted plaudits from Brexiteers and unionists.
However, it is unclear how often it will be applied. Might it be in practice that only a handful of new EU laws are blocked this way, and the vast majority are still implemented? Early signs suggest this is the case, rather than it being used as a wholesale blocking mechanism.
The EU briefing paper on the Commission website says of the new veto: “This mechanism would be triggered under the most exceptional circumstances and as a matter of last resort”, making clear there is no expectation that it should be used regularly.
The details set out in the UK paper also make this obvious. Firstly, the entire mechanism requires the Stormont assembly to be back up and running to work, which – as things stand – still seems unlikely.
It can only be used on “non-trivial” issues, with the UK government, not Northern Irish politicians, determining what is “trivial”.
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It requires 30 members of two parties in the Assembly to agree for the “brake” to be triggered.
The UK government must be minded to agree too, aware of the diplomatic wrangling and blowback it will cause and often having different policy goals. EU trade deals cannot be subject to a veto, or measures to prevent fraud.
And it must be proved in writing that the veto is being used as a last resort, with other measures – like the whole of the UK implementing the EU rule – having to be considered first.
Finally, if Northern Ireland does use its veto, it can be punished by the EU by imposing other sanctions.
The UK document says: “It is important to note that the permanent disapplication of the rules would mean divergence between Northern Ireland and Ireland (and the broader EU), and thus it would be a matter for the EU how to deal with the consequent impact on their market. Recognising this, the EU will have the ability to take ‘appropriate remedial measures’.”
As a consequence, none of this makes it sound like the veto at the heart of the deal will be in regular use: is it really a lever to look at and admire rather than pull?
What happens to existing single market goods laws?
They remain in place for firms in Northern Ireland. The documentation makes clear that as part of this process, the EU will now be “disapplying over 1,700 pages of EU law in the process, and the ECJ oversight which comes with it”.
However, the law being disapplied is not EU law in force in Northern Ireland, but instead the EU rules on trade introduced as part of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal introducing checks on goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
Or, in the words of the UK government document: “disapplication (is) of core parts of the EU customs code and SPS rules for internal UK trade”. This new policy – green lanes with almost no checks for GB goods going to Northern Ireland – is a big win, but the EU can remove it at any time if they are unhappy with its operation.
Sunak welcomes Ursula von der Leyen to Windsor to discuss the Northern Ireland talks. Pic: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
Has the UK got complete control of VAT and subsidy policy?
The headline is simple enough – that Westminster has taken back control from Brussels of the ability to set certain tax rates and determine state aid levels for business, something which bothered Rishi Sunak back when he was chancellor.
The reality is, of course, less straightforward. In practice, Westminster has much more freedom than it did – but it is not sovereign in these areas in the way Brexiteers would like. Rather than blanket changes, the EU has granted specific exemptions on VAT – for instance, the UK can apply reduced VAT rates on goods such as heat pumps supplied and installed in properties and does not need to apply the special EU VAT scheme for small enterprises in Northern Ireland provided the business turnover is not bigger than an EU-wide set level.
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Sky’s political correspondent Rob Powell explains what this new Brexit deal means, and what happens next.
However, the EU and UK have only agreed to “explore establishing” a list of goods not being at risk of entering the EU which would not be subject to EU VAT rules. And while alcohol taxes will in future be levied in Northern Ireland by strength, the same way they are in the rest of Britain, “the UK will not be able to apply any duty rate below the EU minima.”
These are all limits that Northern Ireland politicians will have to put up with for generations to come. On state aid, a new declaration clarifies and narrows the scope of what Brussels can determine on state aid but, according to the EU Commission document, it is still the case “Article 10(1) of the Protocol makes EU State aid rules applicable in Northern Ireland.”
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The prime minister champions the new Brexit deal
What happens in the future?
All MPs are, understandably, evaluating the new Windsor Framework on the basis of what it means for the politics of today and the next election. But what about 20 years time?
In particular, what if Britain wants to take bolder advantage of its Brexit freedoms? Here the UK document is fascinatingly mercurial. It says it understands the EU has made compromises in protecting the EU single market and adds that the UK government moving away from EU standards remains a possibility.
“Inherent in this new way forward is the prospect of significant divergence between the two distinct economies on the island of Ireland – from food and drink to plants and pets, building on the existing differences in every area of economic and political life such as services, migration, currency and taxation.”
The answer to that prospect of divergence is potentially more intense monitoring of goods moving between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
“This will require increased market surveillance North-South in some instances to ensure that there is no abuse of these arrangements to move goods across the international border from Northern Ireland into Ireland, and new requirements on Ireland and other EU Member States to ensure that sensitive products such as food are not moved illegally across that international border.”
It is not, however, clear what that “market surveillance” will amount to.
Sunak has solved many of today’s problems left behind by Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal in Northern Ireland. However, nobody can say what this week’s deal means for the constitutional, political economic status of Northern Ireland in 20 years time – that can only be guesswork.
World
Body pulled from mine after police cut off supplies to ‘smoke out’ thousands of illegal miners
A body has been recovered from a South African mine after police cut off basic supplies in an effort to force around 4,000 illegal miners to resurface.
The body has emerged from the closed gold mine in the northwest town of Stilfontein a day after South Africa’s government said it would not help the illegal miners.
Around 20 people have surfaced from the mineshaft this week as police wait nearby to arrest all those appearing from underground.
It comes a day after a cabinet minister said the government was trying to “smoke them [the miners] out”.
The move is part of the police’s “Close the Hole” operation, whereby officers cut off supplies of food, water and other basic necessities to get those who have entered illegally to come out.
Local reports suggest the supply routes were cut off at the mine around two months ago, with relatives of the miners seen in the area as the stand-off continues.
Relatives of miners and community members wait at the mine shaft. Pic: AP
A decomposed body was brought up on Thursday, with pathologists on the scene, police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said.
It comes after South African cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told reporters on Wednesday that the government would not send any help to the illegal miners, known in the country as zama zamas, because they are involved in a criminal act.
“We are not sending help to criminals. We are going to smoke them out. They will come out. Criminals are not to be helped; criminals are to be prosecuted. We didn’t send them there,” Ms Ntshavheni said.
An aerial view of a mineshaft. Pic: AP
Senior police and defence officials are expected to visit the area on Friday to “reinforce the government’s commitment to bringing this operation to a safe and lawful conclusion”, according to a media advisory from the police.
In the last few weeks, over 1,000 miners have surfaced at various mines in South Africa’s North West province, where police have cut off supplies.
Many of the miners were reported to be weak, hungry and sickly after going for weeks without basic supplies.
Illegal mining remains common in South Africa’s old gold-mining areas, with miners going into closed shafts to dig for any possible remaining deposits.
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Relatives of miners and community members wait near the mine shaft. Pic: AP
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The illegal miners are often from neighbouring countries, and police say the illegal operations involve larger syndicates that employ the miners.
Their presence in closed mines has also created problems with nearby communities, which complain that the illegal miners commit crimes ranging from robberies to rape.
Illegal mining groups are known to be heavily armed and disputes between rival groups sometimes result in fatal confrontations.
World
Ukrainian frontline commander warns: ‘The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem’
In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.
We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.
The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.
They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.
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The captain known by his men as ‘Genius’
In the summer, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, in Kursk
Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.
Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.
He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.
His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.
Captain Sasha Shyrshyn and Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay
‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’
Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.
We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.
“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.
He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.
Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.
Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.
“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.
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‘The world is scared of Russia’
It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.
The disguised American Bradley vehicle hidden in the forest
Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.
A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.
He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.
“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”
The American Bradley fighting vehicle that Ukrainian soldiers have found vital in their efforts
Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.
Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.
If President-elect Donald Trump cuts the supply of military aid, the Ukrainians will lose – it’s that simple.
US President-elect Donald Trump has been clear he intends to change his nation’s policy on the war in Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.
“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”
Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.
He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.
“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.
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‘Losing will be not only our problem’
These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.
Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.
Barbed wire rolled out in the Sumy region ahead of expected fighting
Tank traps in the Sumy region
Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.
“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.
But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.
“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”
Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.
A weather warning has been issued for parts of Spain, as the country counts the cost of recent flooding.
The orange warnings are in place for parts of southwestern Spain – the area around Seville down towards Gibraltar.
Up to 8cm (3ins) of rain could fall within 12 hours, but the weekend looks much more settled in the country.
The latest warnings come just two weeks after flash flooding in Valencia and other parts of the country killed more than 200 people.
Malaga saw 14.2cm (5.6ins) of rainfall on Wednesday – Spain’s highest of the day – most of which fell in six hours.
All train services were halted in Malaga. Some flights have now resumed after the initial disruption.
Pic: Jamie Marchant
Emergency services in the province have moved 3,000 people from homes at risk of flooding close to the Guadalhorce River in the west of the city.
Jamie Marchant, 29, from Caerphilly in South Wales travelled to Malaga last Wednesday.
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He told Sky News that “debris” had been left behind by the recent rainfall in the region.
“Everyone is pitching in to clean up and some shops are opening as usual,” he added.
Orange warnings for the Valencia region in eastern Spain expired earlier on Thursday.
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The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.
Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.
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