Critical for Kazakhstan to pursue oil export options outside of Russia, investor says
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Kazakhstan’s ability to diversify its seaborne crude oil export routes away from Russian territory is critical to the country’s economy, the developer of an alternative port told CNBC.
“I believe it’s less political, more existential question, and we hope that also international community is going to support that initiative to have alternative routes in order to minimize the effects of any supply shortages,” Nurzhan Marabayev, CEO of Kazakh infrastructure investor Semurg Invest, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy and Hadley Gamble.
His company has been working to develop the Kuryk port on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea — a project that includes a bulk cargo terminal, designed for the transshipment of oil, bulk oil cargo and liquefied petroleum gas.
Once complete, the port could provide an alternative to Kazakhstan’s main seaborne crude oil export route, which currently transports volumes across Russian territory via the 1,511-kilometer (939-mile) Caspian Pipeline Corporation’s pipeline, for later shipment from the CPC terminal near Russian port Novorossiysk.
Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, concerns have mounted that Kazakhstan’s reliance on cooperation with Russia — with whom Kazakhstan shares a 7,644-kilometer (4,750 miles) border and a history of close political alignment — could endanger its oil supplies. Exports from the CPC terminal were intermittently disrupted in 2022, with Russia citing technical and regulatory issues. This included a delay in the port’s restart after storm damage, while Russian technical watchdog Rostekhnadzor carried out an unscheduled inspection, and a brief and unenforced Russian court ruling for CPC to halt exports for 30 days.
“Approximately 95% of oil is going through Russian territory, and we have seen some disturbance last year, and actually … it’s quite a threat to the Kazakhstan economy, because we are depending on the oil revenues,” Marabayev told CNBC on Wednesday.
Oil major ExxonMobil — which holds a 16.8% interest in the Kasahagan field and a 25% stake in the Tengizchevroil consortium that operates the Tengiz and Korolev fields — signaled similar concerns in a Feb. 22 securities filing.
“In the event that Russia takes countermeasures in response to existing sanctions related to its military actions in Ukraine, it is possible that the transportation of Kazakhstan oil through the CPC pipeline could be disrupted, curtailed, temporarily suspended, or otherwise restricted,” the company said, warning of a “loss in cash flows of uncertain duration” under such circumstances. ExxonMobil’s after-tax earnings linked to its Kazakh interests were roughly $2.5 billion in 2022.
Kazakhstan is the second largest producer of the non-OPEC contingent of the OPEC+ coalition and has typically aligned itself with Russia in the group’s petropolitics. Kazakh output slipped to 1.66 million barrels per day in January, according to the February issue of the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report.
The country has been studying potential alternative transport routes beyond Moscow’s borders, including the possibility of sending oil shipments via Azerbaijan’s Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and through the incomplete Kuryk port project.
“Major infrastructure has been done, but still we need more support and attention to the port in order to fast-track the development of the private terminals,” Marabayev said. Development began in 2010, with operations starting six years ago.
U.S. outreach
Russia and Kazakhstan have historically observed a tight alliance, with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last year calling on the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization to send paratroopers into Kazakh territory after nationwide protests erupted over fuel price increases.
But Russia’s war in Ukraine has stranded Kazakhstan in a precarious balancing act between Western powers and the Moscow administration of Vladimir Putin. Tokayev deepened engagement with Washington during the Tuesday visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who repeatedly stressed that the U.S. backed Kazakhstan’s “territorial integrity.”
“Ever since being the first nation to recognize Kazakhstan in December of 1991, the United States has been firmly committed to the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Kazakhstan – and countries across the region,” Blinken said.
“In our discussions today, I reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Kazakhstan, like all nations, to freely determine its future, especially as we mark one year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in a failed attempt to deny its people that very freedom.”
Russian flows
The world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia has found its footing in the crude markets destabilized by EU and G-7 sanctions implemented against its seaborne exports of crude oil and oil products in December and February, respectively. Kazakh oil has been exempted from the measures despite transiting and exiting a port on Russian grounds.
The G-7 has put in place a scheme that allows Western providers to facilitate critical financial and shipping services to non-G-7 countries that purchase Russian volumes below a specific price. Moscow has repeatedly denounced this measure and threatened to deny its crude and oil products to those who observe such a price cap.
The withdrawal has pressured its production levels, which the IEA pegged down to 9.77 million barrels per day in January. Moscow announced it would reduce crude oil output by 500,000 barrels per day in March.
Russia has also been pushed farther into the Asia markets, now primarily relying on Chinese and Indian purchases:
“I think Russia, effectively, is an Asian nation by now. I think India and China will, for a long period, be the main buyers of Russia. It’s going to become the new norm,” Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
“I think that’s going to be the end result Russia out of Europe, Russia perennially into Asia, there’s going to be new links into those countries, and that’s pretty much it.”
National Grid Renewables has broken ground on its 100 MW Apple River Solar Project in Polk County, Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin solar farm, which will use US-made First Solar Series 6 Plus bifacial modules, will be constructed by The Boldt Company, creating 150 construction and service jobs. Apple River Solar will generate over $36 million in direct economic benefits over its first 20 years.
Once it comes online in late 2025, Apple River Solar will supply clean energy to Xcel Energy, which serves customers throughout the Upper Midwest. According to National Grid Renewables, the solar farm will generate enough energy to power around 26,000 homes annually. It will also offset about 129,900 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year – equivalent to taking 30,900 cars off the road.
“We are excited to see this project begin as it underscores our dedication to delivering clean, reliable and affordable energy to our customers,” said Karl Hoesly, President, Xcel Energy-Wisconsin and Michigan. “This project is an important step in those goals while bringing significant economic benefits to Polk County and the local townships.”
Electrek reported in February that Xcel Energy, Minnesota’s largest utility, expects to cut more than 80% – and possibly up to 88% – of its emissions by 2030, putting it on track to hit Minnesota’s goal of net zero by 2040. It also says it’s on track to achieve its clean energy goals for all the Upper Midwest states it serves – Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Michigan.
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Tesla has announced that it will finally deliver 500 kW charging as it is about to install its long-awaited V4 Supercharger cabinets.
The rollout of Supercharger V4 has been a strange one, to say the least.
Tesla has been deploying the new charging stations for two years and calling them “Supercharger V4”, but it has only been deploying the charging stalls.
Supercharger stations are made of two main parts: the stalls, which are where the charging cable is located, and the cabinets, which are generally located further back and include all the power electronics.
For all these new “Supercharger V4”, Tesla was actually using Supercharger V3 cabinets. This has been limiting the power output of the charging stations to 250 kW – although
Today, Tesla officially announced its “V4 Cabinet”, which the automaker claims will enable of “delivering up to 500kW for cars and 1.2MW for Semi.”
Here are the main features of the V4 Cabinet as per Tesla:
- Faster charging: Supports 400V-1000V vehicle architectures, including 30% faster charging for Cybertruck. S3XY vehicles enjoy 250kW charge rates they already experience on V3 Cabinet — charging up to 200 miles in 15 minutes.
- Faster deployments: V4 Cabinet powers 8 posts, 2X the stalls per cabinet. Lower footprint and complexity = more sites coming online faster.
- Next-generation hardware: Cutting-edge power electronics designed to be the most reliable on the planet, with 3X power density enabling higher throughput with lower costs.
Tesla reports that its first sites with the new V4 Cabinets are going into permitting now. The company expects its first sites to open next year.
We recently reported about Tesla’s new Oasis Supercharger project, which includes larger solar arrays and battery packs to operate the charging station mostly off-grid.
Early in the deployment of the Supercharger network, Tesla promised to add solar arrays and batteries to all Supercharger stations, and Musk even said that most stations would be able to operate off-grid.
While Tesla did add solar and batteries to a few stations, the vast majority of them don’t have their own power system or have only minimal solar canopies.
Back in 2016, I asked Musk about this, and he said that it would now happen as Tesla had the “pieces now in place” with Supercharger V3, Powerpack V2, and SolarCity:
It took about 8 years, but it sounds like the pieces are now getting actually in place with Supercharger V4, Megapacks, and this new Oasis project.
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Hyundai has a new secret weapon it’s about ready to unleash. To revamp the brand in China and counter BYD’s surge, Hyundai is launching a new AI-powered EV next year. The new model will be Hyundai’s first dedicated electric car for the world’s largest EV market.
With the help of Haomo, a Chinese autonomous startup, Hyundai will launch its first EV equipped with generative AI. It will also be its first model designed specifically for China.
A Hyundai Motor official said (via The Korea Herald) the company is “working to load the software” onto the new EV model, “which will be released in the Chinese market next year.” The spokesperson added, “The level of autonomous driving is somewhere between 2 and 2.5.”
In comparison, Tesla’s Autopilot is considered a level 2 advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) on the SAE scale (0 to 5), meaning it offers limited hands-free features.
With Autopilot, you still have to keep your eyes on the road and hands on the steering wheel, or the system will notify you and eventually disengage.
Haomo’s system, DriveGPT, unveiled last spring, takes inspiration from the OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT.
The system can continuously update in real-time to optimize decision-making by absorbing traffic data patterns. According to Haomo, DriveGPT is used in around 20 models as it looks to play a bigger role in China.
Hyundai hopes new AI-powered EV boosts sales in China
Electric vehicle sales continue surging in China. According to Rho Motion, China set another EV sales record last month with 1.2 million units sold, up 50% from October 2023.
Over 8.4 million EVs were sold in China in the first ten months of 2024, a notable 38% increase from last year.
BYD continues to dominate its home market. According to Autovista24, BYD accounted for 32.9% of all PHEV and EV (NEV) sales in China through September, with over half of the top 20 best-selling EV models.
Tesla was second with a 6.5% share of the market, but keep in mind these numbers only include plug-in models (PHEV).
Like most foreign automakers, Hyundai is struggling to keep up with the influx of low-cost electric models in China. Beijing Hyundai’s sales have been slipping since 2017. Through September, Korean automaker’s share of the Chinese market fell to just 1.2%.
Last month, Hyundai opened its first overseas digital R&D center in China to help kick off its return to the region.
According to local reports, Hyundai is partnering with other local tech companies like Thundersoft, a smart cockpit provider, and others in China to power up its next-gen EVs
With its first AI-powered EV launching next year, Hyundai hopes to turn things around in the region quickly. The new model will be one of five to launch in China through 2026.
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