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Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s aggression over Taiwan threaten to create a world “defined by danger, disorder and division”, the UK prime minister has warned.

Rishi Sunak predicted a “difficult and dangerous decade” as his government published a long-awaited update to a major defence, security and foreign policy review on Monday.

The 63-page document signalled that the world faced the biggest risk in decades of security threats escalating, including into “uncontrolled conflict” with nuclear weapons.

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The most immediate security priority was to tackle the threat posed by Russia’s war in Europe, the Integrated Review Refresh said.

But it warned that any future war in the Indo-Pacific, where tensions have increased with China over Taiwan, could have “global consequences greater than the conflict in Ukraine“.

The paper did not change the fundamental assessments of the original review, published in 2021, before Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the language was starker.

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Mr Sunak described the Chinese Communist Party as posing an “epoch-defining challenge”. It was previously described only as a “systemic challenge”.

He also set out how Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine was an assault on UK and wider European security.

The prime minister explained how the security environment has changed over the past two years, with threats and challenges intensifying.

“Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, weaponisation of energy and food supplies and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, combined with China’s more aggressive stance in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, are threatening to create a world defined by danger, disorder and division – and an international order more favourable to authoritarianism,” he wrote in a foreword.

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£3bn more for nuclear weapons and submarine fleet

As a result of the evolving threats, Mr Sunak announced an extra £3bn over the next two years for the UK’s nuclear weapons and submarine fleet as well as an extra £1.9bn for ammunition stockpiles.

The document was released ahead of the government’s budget on Wednesday. It set out a plan to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, up from just over 2%, but without setting a timeframe.

Warning of future threats, the review said: “There is a growing prospect that the international security environment will further deteriorate in the coming years, with state threats increasing and diversifying in Europe and beyond.

“The risk of escalation is greater than at any time in decades, and an increasing number of advanced weapons systems have been developed and are being tested or adopted.”

It raised concern about the impact of a weakening in a set of arms control agreements between the United States and Russia.

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“The strategic stability mechanisms that helped in the 21st century to mitigate the risks of misunderstanding, miscalculation and unintended escalation have not developed at the pace needed to ensure that competition does not spill over into uncontrolled conflict,” the text said.

It added: “Tensions in the Indo-Pacific are increasing and conflict there could have global consequences greater than the conflict in Ukraine.”

Warnings about Iran and North Korea

The Integrated Review Refresh also cautioned about an increasing threat from Iran, which is advancing a nuclear weapons programme.

In addition, North Korea is “seeking to develop its nuclear capabilities while pursuing regionally destabilising activity through missile tests that threaten its neighbours”.

Much of the text reaffirmed and strengthened findings from the previous review.

But the 2023 update also include a specific section on UK policy towards China, balancing security concerns with a desire to engage with Beijing in areas of mutual interest such as climate change.

This nuanced approached may meet with criticism from certain members of the Conservative Party, including former prime minister Liz Truss, who have been much more hawkish.

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China ‘likely’ to invade Taiwan

‘Grow concerns’ over China’s government

The review talked about “growing concerns” over the actions of the Chinese government, including its strengthening relationship with Russia despite the war in Ukraine.

It also highlighted how China has pursued “rapid and opaque military modernisation with huge new investments, militarised disputed islands in the South China Sea, and refused to renounce the use of force to achieve its objectives with regard to Taiwan“.

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Specifically on Taiwan, the UK reaffirmed its position that tensions over the self-governed island should be settled peacefully.

But Mr Sunak’s review also focused on the reality of Beijing’s size and significance. China accounts for being a fifth of the world economy.

The text said Britain would “engage constructively” with the Chinese government, business and people when it serves the national interest but would take “robust action” to tackle any threats.

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‘The future is in our hands’ scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold

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'The future is in our hands' scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold

Last year was the warmest on record, the first to breach a symbolic threshold, and brought with it deadly impacts like flooding and drought, scientists have said.

Two new datasets found 2024 was the first calendar year when average global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.

The record heat has not only has real-world implications, as it contributed to deadly flooding in Spain and vicious drought in places like Zambia in southern Africa.

It is also highly symbolic.

Countries agreed in the landmark Paris Agreement to limit warming ideally to 1.5C, because after that the impacts would be much more dangerous.

The news arrives as California battles “hell on earth” wildfires, suspected to have been exacerbated by climate change.

And it comes as experts warn support for the Paris goals is “more fragile than ever” – with Donald Trump and the Argentinian president poised to row back on climate action.

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What caused 2024 record heat – and is it here to stay?

Friends of the Earth called today’s findings from both the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change service and the Met Office “deeply disturbing”.

The “primary driver” of heat in the last two years was climate change from human activity, but the temporary El Nino weather phenomenon also contributed, they said.

The breach in 2024 does not mean the world has forever passed 1.5C of warming – as that would only be declared after several years of doing so, and warming may slightly ease this year as El Nino has faded.

But the world is “teetering on the edge” of doing so, Copernicus said.

Prof Piers Forster, chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, called it a “foretaste of life at 1.5C”.

Dr Gabriel Pollen, Zambia’s national coordinator for disasters, said “no area of life and the economy is untouched” by the country’s worst drought in more than 100 years.

Six million people face starvation, critical hydropower has plummeted, blackouts are frequent, industry is “decimated”, and growth has halved, he said.

Paris goal ‘not obsolete’

Scientists were at pains to point out it is not too late to curb worse climate change, urging leaders to maintain and step up climate action.

Professor Forster said temporarily breaching 1.5C “does not mean the goal is obsolete”, but that we should “double down” on slashing greenhouse gas emissions and on adapting to a hotter world.

The Met Office said “every fraction of a degree” still makes a difference to the severity of extreme weather.

Firefighters battle the Palisades fire as it burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles.
Pic: Reuters
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The California fires were whipped up by strong, dry winds and likely worsened by climate change. Pic: Reuters

Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo added: “The future is in our hands: swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate”.

Climate action is ‘economic opportunity’

Copernicus found that global temperatures in 2024 averaged 15.10°C, the hottest in records going back to 1850, making it 1.60°C above the pre-industrial level during 1850-1900.

The Met Office’s data found 2024 was 1.53C above pre-industrial levels.

The figures are global averages, which smooth out extremes from around the world into one number. That is why it still might have felt cold in some parts of the world last year.

Greenpeace campaigner Philip Evans said as “the world’s most powerful climate denier” Donald Trump returns to the White House, others must “take up the mantle of global climate leadership”.

The UK’s climate minister Kerry McCarthy said the UK has been working with other countries to cut global emissions, as well as greening the economy at home.

“Not only is this crucial for our planet, it is the economic opportunity of the 21st century… tackling the climate crisis while creating new jobs, delivering energy security and attracting new investment into the UK.”

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Picture shows baby girl moments after birth on packed migrant dinghy heading for Canary Islands

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Picture shows baby girl moments after birth on packed migrant dinghy heading for Canary Islands

Photographs have captured the moments after a baby girl was born on a packed migrant dinghy heading for the Canary Islands.

The small boat was carrying 60 people and had embarked from Tan-Tan – a Moroccan province 135 nautical miles (250km) away.

One image shows the baby lying on her mother’s lap as other passengers help the pair.

The boat’s passengers – a total of 60 people, including 14 women and four children – were rescued by a Spanish coastguard ship.

Coastguard captain Domingo Trujillo said: “The baby was crying, which indicated to us that it was alive and there were no problems, and we asked the woman’s permission to undress her and clean her.

“The umbilical cord had already been cut by one of her fellow passengers. The only thing we did was to check the child, give her to her mother and wrap them up for the trip.”

Pic: Salvmento Maritimo/Reuters

Spanish coast guards wearing white suits work on a rescue operation as they tow a rubber boat carrying migrants, including a newborn baby, off the island off the Canary Island of Lanzarote, in Spain, in this handout picture obtained on January 8, 2025. SALVAMENTO MARITIMO/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT
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Coastguards rescued all 60 people aboard the boat. Pic: Salvmento Maritimo/Reuters


The mother and baby were taken for medical checks and treated with antibiotics, medical authorities said.

Dr Maria Sabalich, an emergency coordinator of the Molina Orosa University Hospital in Lanzarote, said: “They are still in the hospital, but they are doing well.”

When they are discharged from hospital, the pair will be moved to a humanitarian centre for migrants, a government official said.

They will then most likely be relocated to a reception centre for mothers and children on another of the Canary Islands, they added.

Thousands of migrants board boats attempting to make the perilous journey from the African coast to the Spanish Canaries each year.

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In 2024, a total of 9,757 people died on the route, according to Spanish migration charity Walking Borders.

Mr Trujillo said: “Almost every night we leave at dawn and arrive back late.

“This case is very positive, because it was with a newborn, but in all the services we do, even if we are tired, we know we are helping people in distress.”

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It’s not ‘traditional’ wildfire season – so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

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It's not 'traditional' wildfire season - so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?

What caused the California wildfires?

There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.

The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.

But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.

However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.

The main culprit so far is the Santa Ana winds.

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LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’

What are Santa Ana winds?

So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.

Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.

It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.

These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.

They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.

The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.

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Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared

The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect

The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.

“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”

What role has climate change played?

California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.

Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.

But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.

But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.

Read more:
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A U.S flag flies as fire engulfs a structure while the Palisades Fire burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles, California.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.

“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.

“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”

The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.

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