Expect a steady the ship budget with promises of jam tomorrow from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt | Beth Rigby
After the debacle of Liz Truss’s September mini-budget, with all its mega ramifications, and an autumn statement eight weeks later that performed an about-turn so big that the country’s tax burden hit a 70-year-high, Wednesday’s budget will be all about stability and sticking to the plan.
“No big bangs in this budget,” is how one senior government insider put it to me last week. “It’s got to be a growth budget.
“We’re fighting to be competitive again with Labour. If we can get to next summer and the economy is ticking up, and we can narrow the gap to five to eight points behind in the polls, there’s a chance in an election campaign we can shift the dial.”
Tax cuts, I’m told, will have to wait.
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What the chancellor and prime minister want to project this week is the sense that they are getting the economy back on track, and working towards Rishi Sunak’s pledges to halve inflation, get debt down and get the UK economy growing again.
Do that, argue his allies, and the tax cuts will come – just in time for a general election.
But there is pressure, and lots of it, from voters and from the Tory backbenchers to do more on tax cuts and cost-of-living now, not tomorrow.
And that pressure is all the more palpable after the chancellor received a £30bn windfall in the public finances last month, after it emerged that in the year to January, the public sector had borrowed less than forecast in November by the UK’s official fiscal watchdog.
Floating voters we spoke to in a focus group in one Tory shire seat last week told us that struggling with the cost-of-living and a buckling NHS were top of their concerns, and they expressed scepticism that the government was up to the job.
One voter in the Wycombe constituency in Buckinghamshire described the government as “stale”, with another telling us: “The current crisis emphasises that our government is fairly broken.”
On the cost-of-living, our group of floating voters spoke of their anxiety around energy bills, food prices and childcare.
Charlotte, a working mum, told us she had to change her working hours because she couldn’t afford childcare costs.
“I can’t afford to work full time anymore,” she told us. “It’s not feasible for our family, so I’ve had to rope my mum in to do childcare.
“I wouldn’t say we’re a low earning family. That’s just the way it is now.”
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Voters talk about their priorities with our political editor Beth Rigby.
Food bills were also a concern, with voters saying they’d switched to cheaper supermarkets and cut back in the face of galloping food price inflation.
Ashley, who in the past has voted Conservative but is now undecided, told us he’d switched his weekly shop from Tesco and M&S to Aldi, while energy bills were a problem all round.
“I’ve voted Conservative a long time,” the father-of-two told us. “And then I got a bit tired of, you know, Boris and the promises.
“We need to have some results and I want to see some improvement, not the deflection bit around immigration, [but] some real positive on the cost of living. For me, that’s the most key…it’s what’s important to people.”
Short and long term plans
The Treasury is alive to the pressure, with insiders telling me there will be two parts to Mr Hunt’s budget on Wednesday: a short-term support plan to provide immediate relief on the cost-of-living crisis and then the long-term plan for growth.
On the first part of that, the government is expected to extend the £2,500 energy price guarantee for another three months from April (where there had been a planned rise to £3,000) to give people support on their bills.
The chancellor is also under pressure to again freeze fuel taxes in this budget, at a cost of £6bn.
When it comes to childcare, a key battleground in the next election, the chancellor is expected to change the rules so that parents on Universal Credit are given more childcare and given the funding upfront.
The Treasury is also believed to be planning a hundreds of millions cash injection into expanding access to 30 hours of free access to the over threes.
The chancellor also plans to loosen staff to child ratios for two-year-olds, which could make the cost of childcare a little cheaper.
He is also planning to extend the provision of up to 30 hours a week to one and two-year-olds which could form a central plank in his pitch of helping with the cost of living and getting parents into work.
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These are some predictions for the budget.
And when it comes to the most obvious way of helping people manage their bills – wage packets – the government is standing firm, with Treasury insiders insisting there will be no above inflation pay sector awards.
Neither is the chancellor expected to offer voters any cuts to personal taxes.
“We haven’t got £30bn to cut taxes,” is how one government insider put it to me, in a nod to the boost from revised public finances.
“What we’ve got to do is get people back into work, be that through better childcare support or incentives to get those in their 50s back into work.
“That is where we have to focus policy, and that could amount to say £5bn and that comes out of the [£30bn] headroom.”
Because beyond the short-term support measures, the focus for this budget will be on trying to get the economy moving and getting people back to work post-pandemic, with a package of measures to try to shift parents, the sick, disabled and older workers back into jobs.
To that end, the chancellor is expected to raise the lifetime allowance for pension savings from £1m to an expected £1.8m – a record level – in order to try to incentivise doctors and other professionals out of retirement and back into work.
He could also lift the annual tax-free allowance for pensions from £40,000 to £60,000.
It’s a package that could cost £2bn a year and would be much welcomed by higher earners, but also opens the chancellor up to criticism that he is giving a tax break to the rich while offering nothing to basic rate taxpayers.
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And when it comes to the other group of voters the chancellor and PM need to placate, his backbenchers, there is disquiet over the high level of tax burden, with many Tory MPs keen for tax cuts.
One former cabinet minister told me last week that they wanted to see the £30bn windfall in the public finances used to reverse the planned increase in corporation tax from 19p to 25p in April.
It is a pretty popular refrain.
But Treasury insiders insist the tax hike will go ahead and instead the chancellor will offer business tax breaks to try to encourage growth.
When Mr Sunak was chancellor back in March 2021, he created the £25bn “super-deduction” tax allowance for capital investment – a two-year measure offering 130% tax relief on companies’ purchases of equipment – in order to try to boost investment and growth.
Mr Hunt is coming up with a new set of plans to try to support business and could give firms much more generous capital allowances to incentivise investment.
Watch too for policies and reforms targeting certain industries and sectors, from artificial intelligence to green energy and advanced manufacturing: all of it will be framed as the government’s long-term plan for growth.
Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will be hoping to reassure people they are making the right choices for the UK economy.
Wednesday will be, if you like, the third act of the prime minister’s performance over the past few weeks to try and win a jaded public back around by trying to convince them he will stick to his plan and deliver on promises.
On the international stage, he has rehabilitated the UK with allies after the bumpy years of Prime Minister Johnson and then Prime Minister Truss, symbolised most strongly in a deal with the EU over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland – where even his foes conceded Mr Sunak had got more than they expected.
At home, the PM has put forward his plan to “stop the boats” – a key priority of many of the voters he needs to keep onside or win back in 2024.
Whether the plan, surrounded in legal and practical controversies, will come off remains to be seen.
But Mr Sunak will at least be able, to quote one of his allies, “build a narrative” that blames the failure of the policy around France and the EU refusing to grant the UK a returns agreement and the international courts blocking his plans.
“At least he can then make the argument it wasn’t his fault,” they said.
Narrow path back
On Wednesday, the focus will be on the PM’s three economic targets – halving inflation, cutting debt and growing the economy – as the chancellor tries to lay down the best conditions he can for the Conservatives’ run into the general election in 2024.
Mr Sunak’s allies tell me they think there is a way back to victory for this government at the ballot box once again, but the “path is very narrow”.
A budget then building the foundations rather than lighting the fireworks, all of this the groundwork for the pre-election showstopper next year.
But with the cost-of-living squeeze so acute, the promise of jam tomorrow is unlikely to satisfy the public, particularly if those being given some of the spoils this time around look to be business and the wealthy.
Mr Hunt may be charged with steadying the ship, but he’ll have to be skilful on Wednesday not to lose more ground.
Oasis have reunited on stage for the first time in almost 16 years – with brothers Liam and Noel Gallagher sharing a high five and the briefest of hugs as they closed a performance that for fans was more than worth the wait.
After the split in 2009, for many years Noel said he would never go back – and for a long time, as the brothers exchanged insults through separate interviews (and on social media, for Liam), it seemed pretty unlikely to ever happen.
But now, here they are. As they walked out on stage at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium, all eyes were on the Gallaghers for a sense of their relationship – dare we say it, friendship? – now after all these years.
There was no reference to their fall-out or making up, but the gestures were there – lifting hands together as they walked out for the first time.
The headline “OASIS REUNITED” was shown on stage at the gig. Pic: PA
Fans at the Oasis gig. Pic: PA
Headlines and tweets of speculation and then confirmation of the reunion filled the screens as the show started. “This is happening,” said one, repeatedly.
In the end, it was all about the music.
Liam has received criticism in the past for his voice not being what it once was during his solo or Beady Eye performances, but back on stage with his brother tonight he delivered exactly what fans would have hoped for – a raw, steely-eyed performance, snarling vocals, and the swagger that makes him arguably the greatest frontman of his day.
This was Oasis sounding almost as good as they ever have.
Fans sang along and held up their phones to film as Oasis performed. Pic: PA
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Oasis: ‘It’s good to be back’
They opened with Hello, because of course, “it’s good to be back”. And then Acquiesce, and those lyrics: “Because we need each other/ We believe in one another.”
The song is said to be about friendship in the wider sense, rather than their brotherly bond and sibling rivalry, but you can’t help but feel like it means something here.
Over two hours, they played favourite after favourite – including Morning Glory, Some Might Say, Cigarettes & Alcohol, Supersonic and Roll With It.
Liam Gallagher as Oasis takes to the stage in Cardiff. Pic: PA
In the mid-section, Liam takes his break for Noel to sing Talk Tonight, Half The World Away and Little By Little; the tempo slows but there is by no means a lull, with the fans singing all his words back to him.
Liam returns for hits including Stand By Me, Slide Away, Whatever and Live Forever, before sending the crowd wild (or even wilder) with Rock And Roll Star.
Noel Gallagher performing on stage. Pic: PA
An Oasis fan is pointing at the stage during the gig. Pic: PA
When the reunion announcement was made last summer, it quickly became overshadowed by the controversy of dynamic pricing causing prices to rocket. As he has done on X before, Liam addressed the issue on stage with a joke.
“Was it worth the £4,000 you paid for the ticket?” he shouted at one point. “Yeah,” the crowd shouts back; seemingly all is forgiven.
After Rock And Roll Star, the dream that very quickly became a reality for this band, Noel introduced the rest of the group, calling Bonehead a “legend”.
Paul ‘Bonehead’ Arthurs of Oasis. Pic: PA
Liam Gallagher carried a tambourine in his mouth during the concert. Pic: PA
Then he acknowledges all their young fans, some who maybe weren’t even born when they split. “This one is for all the people in their 20s who’ve never seen us before, who’ve kept this shit going,” he says before the encore starts with The Masterplan.
Noel follows with Don’t Look Back In Anger, and the screens fill with Manchester bees in reference to the arena bombing and how the song became the sound of hope and defiance for the city afterwards.
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‘I’d have paid £10,000 to see them’
Two fans sat on their friends’ shoulders as Oasis performed. Pic: PA
During Wonderwall, there’s a nice touch as Liam sings to the crowd: “There are many things I would like to say to you, but I don’t speak Welsh.”
It is at the end of Champagne Supernova, which closes the set, that it happens; Noel puts down his guitar, and they come together for a high-five and a back-slap, a blink-and-you’d miss it hug.
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“Right then, beautiful people, this is it,” Liam had told the crowd as he introduced the song just a few minutes earlier. “Nice one for putting up with us over the years.”
From the roar of the audience, it’s safe to say most people here would agree it’s been worth it.
UK
Met Police release footage as more than 1,000 arrests made using live facial recognition technology
More than 1,000 criminals, including a paedophile found with a six-year-old girl, have been arrested by the Metropolitan Police using live facial recognition (LFR) cameras.
David Cheneler, 73, was among 93 registered sex offenders held by Met officers using the controversial technology since the start of last year.
He was discovered with the girl after he was identified by a camera on a police van in Camberwell, south London, in January.
Cheneler, from Lewisham, was jailed for two years in May after admitting breaching his sexual harm prevention order by being with a child under the age of 14.
The Met said a total of 1,035 arrests have been made using live facial recognition technology – where live footage is recorded of people as they walk past, capturing their faces, which are then compared against a database of wanted offenders.
If a match is determined, the system creates an alert which is assessed by an officer, who may decide to speak to the person.
They include more than 100 people alleged to have been involved in serious violence against women and girls (VAWG) offences such as strangulation, stalking, domestic abuse, and rape.
Adenola Akindutire admitted charges including robbery. Pic: Met Police
Adenola Akindutire was stopped during an operation in Stratford and arrested over the machete robbery of a Rolex watch, which left the victim with life-changing injuries after the attack in Hayes, west London.
Police said the 22-year-old, who was linked to a similar incident and had been released on bail, was in possession of a false passport and could have evaded arrest if it wasn’t for the technology.
Akindutire, of no fixed address, admitted charges including robbery, attempted robbery, grievous bodily harm, possession of a false identity document and two counts of possession of a bladed article and faces sentencing at Isleworth Crown Court.
Darren Dubarry was stopped on his bike. Pic: Met Police
Dubarry was caught with stolen designer clothes. Pic: Met Police
Darren Dubarry, 50, was already wanted for theft when he was caught with stolen designer clothing in Dalston, east London, after riding past an LFR camera on his bike.
The 50-year-old, from Stratford, east London, was fined after pleading guilty to handling stolen goods.
Lindsey Chiswick, the Met’s LFR lead, hailed the 1,000 arrest milestone as “a demonstration of how cutting-edge technology can make London safer by removing dangerous offenders from our streets”.
“Live Facial Recognition is a powerful tool, which is helping us deliver justice for victims, including those who have been subjected to horrendous offences, such as rape and serious assault,” she said.
“It is not only saving our officers’ valuable time but delivering faster, more accurate results to catch criminals – helping us be more efficient than ever before.”
The Met say “robust safeguards” are in place, which ensure no biometric data is retained from anyone who walks past an LFR camera who isn’t wanted by police.
Almost 2 million faces scanned
But human rights group Liberty is calling for new laws to be introduced to govern how police forces use the technology after Liberty Investigates found almost 1.9 million faces were scanned by the Met between January 2022 and March this year.
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Charlie Whelton, Liberty policy and campaigns officer, said: “We all want to feel safe in our communities, but technology is advancing quickly, and we need to make sure that our laws keep up.
“Any tech which has the potential to infringe on our rights in the way scanning and identifying millions of people does needs to have robust safeguards around its use to protect us all from abuse of power as we go about our daily lives.
“There is currently no overarching law governing police use of facial recognition in the UK, and we shouldn’t leave police forces to come up with these frameworks on their own.
“Almost two million faces have been scanned in London before Parliament has even decided what the laws should be.
“We need to catch up with other countries, and the law needs to catch up with the use. Parliament must legislate now and ensure that safeguards are in place to protect people’s rights where the police use this technology.”
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