The China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal has big repercussions for the Middle East — and the U.S.
A man in Tehran holds a local newspaper reporting on its front page the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.
Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — When arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they were restoring diplomatic relations, much of the world was stunned — not only because of the breakthrough after years of mutual animosity, suspected attacks and espionage between the two countries, but because of who brokered the deal: China.
Taking up a specific role that the U.S. could not have fulfilled, this was Beijing’s first foray into Middle East mediation, an area that for the past few decades was largely occupied by Washington.
As tensions simmer between the world’s two largest economies and U.S. policymakers sound the alarm over competition and security concerns with China, what does Beijing’s ascendance in the region mean for the Middle East — and for U.S. interests?
“Many are breathing a sigh of relief [with] today’s official Iran-Saudi agreement,” Bader al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, wrote on Twitter after the news was announced. “All 3 parties to the deal can claim victory, but Saudis are arguably the biggest winner,” he contended.
From the Saudi perspective, normalization with Iran — a country that’s long been seen by the Saudi monarchy as one of its greatest security threats — removes obstacles in its reform and economic transformation journey, according to Joseph Westphal, a former U.S. ambassador to the kingdom.
“I think the leadership there believes that this is a very important moment for Saudi Arabia as it emerges … as a real leader in the world on many issues,” Westphal told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday. “A constant struggle with Iran delays that and impedes the progress that they made.”
“Obviously, the United States could not have made this agreement possible because we don’t have a relationship with Iran,” the ambassador added. “I think China was a good partner to do this. I think they’re the right people,” he said, noting that China invests heavily in Saudi Arabia and is its top trading partner.
“So I think this is a very good thing all the way around.”
Hopes for de-escalation in areas like Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has carried out a brutal war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels since 2015, are now more realistic than before, analysts say. Risks to shipping and oil supplies in the region may be reduced, and trade and investment between the countries could add to growth.
Reduced risk of direct military confrontation
At the very least, improved communication will reduce risks of confrontation, said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, who called the deal “a much needed pressure valve amid heightened regional tensions.”
Still, it’s a mistake to assume that everything is solved.
“Due to the ongoing shadow war between Iran and Israel – and sporadic Iran-backed attacks against shipping and energy infrastructure throughout the region – the risk of escalation due to miscalculation is still uncomfortably high,” he said.
In the past few years, the region has seen numerous attacks, particularly on Saudi and Emirati ships and energy infrastructure, which Riyadh and Washington blamed on Iran. Tehran rejects the accusations.
“Riyadh and Tehran will remain adversaries with competing visions for the region,” Soltvedt stressed. “But improved channels for communication have the potential to reduce the risk of a direct military confrontation between the two states.”
Iran is also now enriching uranium at its highest level ever, and is believed to be just months away from nuclear bomb-making capability. Rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran may mean little if the latter’s nuclear program isn’t addressed.
Has Washington been snubbed?
The White House’s seeming reluctance to praise China was hard not to notice.
“We support any effort to de-escalate tensions in the region. We think it’s in our interests,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said of the news on Friday, adding that the Biden administration had made similar efforts in that direction.
But when asked about Beijing’s role, Kirby replied: “This is not about China and I’m not going to characterize here whatever China’s role is.”
Chinese President, Xi Jinping (L) is welcomed by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (R) at the Palace of Yamamah in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 8, 2022.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The news signaled the growing influence of China in the Arab region. And not just economically, as it already exports an immense amount of goods to the Middle East and is the largest importer of Saudi oil – but politically. Leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made concerted efforts to diversify their foreign relations and move away from being overly dependent on the U.S., as successive American administrations treat the Middle East as less of a priority.
“I think it demonstrates that U.S.’s influence and credibility in that region has diminished and that there is a new sort of international regional alignment taking place, which has empowered and given both Russia and China newfound influence and status,” Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Middle East policy advisor for the State Department, told NBC News.
He called the fact that China brokered the deal “stunning.”
US Marine Corps General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. (C, behind), commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and Lieutenant General Fahd bin Turki bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (front), commander of the Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen, are shown reportedly Iranian weapons seized by Saudi forces from Yemen’s Huthi rebels, during his visit to a military base in al-Kharj in central Saudi Arabia on July 18, 2019.
Fayez Nureldine | AFP | Getty Images
Still, there seems to be a consensus that in terms of military power and security alliances in the region, U.S. influence is in no danger.
“No Chinese mediation — or any diplomatic involvement — will threaten US primacy in the region. All states, Iran included, know that,” Khalifa University’s Al-Saif said. The U.S.-Saudi Arabia security partnership spans nearly three-quarters of a century, and Saudi Arabia’s military arsenal is overwhelmingly supplied and maintained by the U.S. and American military personnel.
Neither KSA nor Iran will change overnight.
Bader Al-Saif
Assistant professor of history, Khalifa University
In any case, China’s gain doesn’t have to mean a loss for the U.S., many believe.
“This shouldn’t be a zero sum game for the US. It can serve US interests: Iran nuclear deal, Yemen, Lebanon for starters can benefit from the agreement,” Al-Saif said.
“A quick move should follow on these files [because] the agreement may not last long,” he added. “Might as well reap benefits while it lasts.”
Will the deal hold?
It’s yet to be seen whether the agreement between the two Middle Eastern powers – and the mutual goodwill expressed in its wake – will last.
Many regional watchers are skeptical.
“Iran’s opting for engagement here should not be misinterpreted as a de-escalation,” Behnam ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNBC. “Tehran is capitalizing on deeper Chinese enmeshment in Persian Gulf trade as well as increased Saudi hedging of the pro-American order in the region.”
“There was zero political cost to the Islamic Republic to this agreement, whereas the mere optics and politics of it, let alone the substance, are in Iran’s favor,” he said, stressing his doubt that Iran will stop meddling in regional conflicts and other countries via proxies and militant activity.
Ben Taleblu also argued that Iran’s enmity with Israel played a role in its calculations as “Tehran is trying to show that it beat Jerusalem to Riyadh, and is trying to push back and break out of the diplomatic isolation it felt due to the Abraham Accords” when the UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel.
For al-Saif, there is “certainly hope for the agreement to live on” and lead to the prosperity that people of both countries deserve. “But,” he said, “neither KSA nor Iran will change overnight.”
Following a lawsuit brought against the California Air Resources Board (CARB) by major heavy truck manufacturers over California’s emissions requirements, CARB has struck back with fresh lawsuit of its own alleging that the manufacturers violated the terms of the 2023 Clean Truck Partnership agreement to sell cleaner vehicles.
Daimler Truck North America, International Motors, Paccar and Volvo Group North America sued the California Air Resources Board in federal court this past August, seeking to invalidate the Clean Truck Partnership emissions reduction deal they signed with the state in 2023 to move away from traditional trucks and toward zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). The main point of the lawsuit was that, because the incoming Trump Administration rolled back Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) policies that had previously given individual states the right to set their own environmental and emissions laws, the truck makers shouldn’t have to honor the deals signed with individual states.
“Plaintiffs are caught in the crossfire: California demands that OEMs follow preempted laws; the United States maintains such laws are illegal and orders OEMs to disregard them,” the lawsuit reads. “Accordingly, Plaintiff OEMs file this lawsuit to clarify their legal obligations under federal and state law and to enjoin California from enforcing standards preempted by federal law.”
After several weeks of waiting for a response, we finally have one: CARB is suing the OEMs right back, claiming that the initial suit proves the signing manufacturers, “(have) unambiguously stated that they do not intend to comply.”
They want to sell Americans more diesel
In its lawsuit, CARB argues that monetary damages alone would not make the people of the State of California whole as far as damages are concerned, citing that the stated goal of the 2023 Clean Truck Partnership was, “to achieve emissions reductions that cannot be measured strictly in financial terms,” according to ACT-News.
The agency is asking the court to compel the truck companies to perform on their 2023 obligations or, failing that, to allow CARB to rescind the contract and recover its costs. A hearing on the truck makers’ request for a preliminary injunction was held Friday, with another court date set for November 21, when CARB will seek to dismiss the case brought forth by the truck brands. The outcome of these cases could shape how state and federal government agencies cooperation on emissions rules in the future.
You can read the full 22-page lawsuit, below, then let us know what you think of CARB’s response (and their chances of succeeding) in the comments.
SOURCES: CARB; via ACT-News, Trucking Dive.
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Starting this month, parking lots in South Korea with more than 80 spaces will be required to install solar canopies and carports. But, unlike similar laws that have been proposed in the US, this new law doesn’t just apply to new construction – existing lots will have to comply as well!
South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced in August that it has prepared an amendment to the Enforcement Decree of the Act on the Promotion of the Development, Use, and Diffusion of New and Renewable Energy to the effect that all publicly- and privately-owned parking lots in the Asian country with room for more than 80 vehicles will be compelled to add solar panels to their lots in a move designed to proactively expand renewable energy and create more solar and construction jobs.
In addition to creating jobs and working to stabilize the local grid with more renewable energy, the proposed solar canopies will offer a number of practical, day-to-day benefits for Korean drivers, as well.
The shaded structures will protect vehicles from heavy rain, snow, and the blistering summer sun — keeping interiors cooler, extending the life of plastics and upholstery, and even helping to preserve battery range in EVs and PHEVs by reducing their AC loads (and, of course, provide charging while the cars are parked).
To their credit, Ministry officials absolutely get it. “Through this mandatory installation,” one unnamed official told Asia Business Daily, “we expect to expand the distribution of eco-friendly renewable energy generation facilities while providing tangible benefits to the public. By utilizing idle land such as parking lots, we can maximize land use efficiency. In addition, installing canopy-type solar panels can provide shade underneath, offering noticeable comfort to people using parking lots during hot weather.”
The new rule was approved in late September, and is expected to go into effect later this month, with new installation projects set to begin immediately.
It could work here
South Korea is proving that an idea like is practical. Here in the US, we’re proving that out, too – the Northwest Fire District in Arizona partnered with Standard Solar to build a conceptually similar, 657 kW solar carport system across 12 parking lots (shown, above) that delivers more than 1.23 million kWh of clean, emissions-free power annually and offsets the equivalent of 185,000 vehicles’ worth of harmful carbon emissions.
That’s just Arizona. In New York, a new initiative to help expand solar into parking lots has more than doubled commercially zoned land where EV charging stations can be sited, “freeing up” an additional 400 million square feet of space throughout the city.
Sun-rich states like Texas, New Mexico, and Florida could also benefit, and even if we’re “just” adding fresh energy sources to municipal parking, dealer lots, and public schools, we could do a lot to reduce the cost of energy generation for the entire community. And, for what it’s worth, that seems to be right in line with the big reasons why people are choosing to add solar to their homes today.
What do you guys think – would something like this work in the US, or are we too far gone down the sophomoric, pseudo-libertarian rabbit hole to ever dig our way out? Let us know your take in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Asia Business Daily, via LinkedIn; Standard Solar.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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Autonomous taxi company Waymo faced scrutiny last month when a car was caught on video illegally passing a stopped school bus that was letting children off in Atlanta. Now, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is looking into it.
Georgia State Representative Clint Crowe seemed stunned after being presented with video of a Waymo driverless car illegally passing a stopped school bus on Briarcliff Road in Atlanta last month. “I’m a big fan of new technologies and emerging technologies and I think that driverless cars are going to become more prevalent,” he told local NBC news affiliate WBIR. “But we got [sic] to think about how they’re going to comply with the law.”
WBIR | Waymo illegally passes school bus
Crowe co-sponsored Addy’s Law in 2024. The legislation was named after 8-year-old Addy Pierce, who was killed in Henry County after being struck while crossing the street to get to her bus. The law stiffened penalties for illegally passing a stopped school bus, carrying penalties of up to $1,000 in fines and even jail time.
According to Crowe, those rules still apply to autonomous vehicles. “The majority of our traffic laws, the penalty is usually a fine and or driver’s license suspension. These cars don’t have a driver, so they don’t have a driver’s license and so we’re really going to have to rethink who’s the responsible party, who’s going to be responsible for being in control of that vehicle and who’s going to be the operator of that vehicle,” he said.
Crowe believes manufacturers should face stronger consequences when their vehicles break the law, saying the $1,000 fine doesn’t go far enough.
Now, thanks to pressure from social media and politicians like Crowe and Geoirgia State Senator Rick Williams, who helped co-author Addy’s Law, it seems like NHTSA is getting involved.
Prompted by media reports, the US Department of Transportation issued an investigation regarding Waymo’s AV, which states that, “the AV initially stopped, but then drove around the front of the bus by briefly turning right to avoid running into the bus’s right front end, then turning left to pass in front of the bus, and then turning further left and driving down the roadway past the entire left side of the bus. During this maneuver, the Waymo AV passed the bus’s extended crossing control arm near disembarking students (on the bus’s right side) and passed the extended stop arm on the bus’s left side.”
While it remains to be seen how much work NHTSA is actually doing amid the ongoing shutdown of the Federal government, it’s worth noting that, regardless of the outcome, Senator Williams said he plans to introduce new legislation that would hold driverless car companies accountable with higher fines if their vehicles violate traffic laws. If that passes in Georgia, it could set the stage for politicians across the US and even abroad to use similar fins to halt the spread of autonomous taxis in their states.
“Driverless cars should be stopped until it can be figured out,” said Williams. “We should not have this on the road. It’s too dangerous for our children.”
You can read NHTSA summary, below.
We’re typically pretty tech- and autonomous-forward here, but as a parent I would absolutely lose my s*** if a Waymo or Robotaxi or whatever else ran over my kid. but I’ve also seen plenty of human drivers blow past a school bus with a knee on the steering wheel and both eyes glued firmly to their phones. Let us know who you’d be more ready to trust with your kids’ lives in the comments.
SOURCES: WBIR, NHTSA, via School Transportation News.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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