NHL playoff watch: Examining the Rangers’ and Penguins’ postseason outlooks
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Tim KavanaghESPN.com
As the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins get set for Saturday night’s game (8 ET, ABC and ESPN+), they are both in great shape to qualify for the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Rangers have a greater than 99% chance of making the postseason, while the Penguins’ chances are 73%. But what happens when they get there? And could they meet again for another epic showdown like last year’s?
The Rangers are on track for a first-round matchup against their Hudson River rival New Jersey Devils. The Devils won the first tilt between the teams 5-3 on Nov. 28. Each has won a 4-3 overtime decision in the time since, and they’ll play again on March 30.
Money Puck gives the Rangers a 26.1% chance of making the second round of the playoffs (where they’d potentially meet the Penguins again), 15.8% chance of making the conference final, 2.0% chance of making the Stanley Cup Final, and 0.7% chance of winning it all.
As for the Penguins, they appear poised to take on the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. The Pens have lost two games cleanly to the Canes and two other games in OT; however, all of those were during the “we have Andrei Svechnikov in the lineup” era of Canes 2022-23 hockey. A lineup without Svechnikov would theoretically be less powerful.
Despite Svechnikov’s absence, Money Puck doesn’t love the Pens’ chances of winning the series, but it does offer a slightly rosier picture than the Rangers’ if they do get past the Metro Division: It’s a 25.2% chance for a trip to the second round, 10.6% chance of making the conference final, 4.4% chance of making the Stanley Cup Final, and 1.9% chance of winning the Cup.
As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Pittsburgh Penguins
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers
Western Conference
C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Saturday’s games
Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings, 1 p.m. (NHLN)
Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild, 2 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators, 2 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, 4 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, 5 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers, 6 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames, 10 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes, 10:30 p.m.
New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m. (NHLN)
Friday’s scoreboard
Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
St. Louis Blues 5, Washington Capitals 2
Anaheim Ducks 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 107
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 131
Next game: @ MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 55%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. BOS (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 8%
Tragic number: 22
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84
Next game: vs. TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. COL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 71
Next game: @ TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 8
Metropolitan Division
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 118
Next game: @ PHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 95
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 115
Next game: @ FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. PIT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 73%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 50%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 6%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. BOS (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 11
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ VGK (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Central Division
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ CGY (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ DET (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 58%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. WPG (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 27%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 78
Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 75
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 65
Next game: @ ARI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3
Pacific Division
Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. CBJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 100
Next game: @ SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 100
Next game: vs. EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 93%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. DAL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 26%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 77
Next game: @ LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 67
Next game: vs. VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 62
Next game: vs. NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25
Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16:
NEW YORK — Vegas Golden Knights forward Nicolas Roy was fined but not suspended Friday for cross-checking the Edmonton Oilers‘ Trent Frederic in the face in overtime of Game 2 of the teams’ second-round playoff series.
The NHL Department of Player Safety announced the fine of $7,813, the maximum allowed under the collective bargaining agreement, after a disciplinary hearing with him.
Roy attempted to play the puck while it was airborne but made contact with Frederic’s head instead, resulting in a laceration for the Oilers forward.
Frederic briefly exited the game before making a quick return to the ice. Edmonton, however, failed to capitalize on the ensuing five-minute power play but won not long after on a goal by Leon Draisaitl from Connor McDavid.
Vegas trails the best-of-seven series 2-0 with Game 3 on Saturday night at Edmonton.
Information from The Associated Press and Field Level Media was used in this report.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Boston Red Sox owner John Henry met with disgruntled star Rafael Devers on Friday afternoon, making a rare trip to meet the team on the road after Devers expressed disillusionment with the organization’s suggestion he switch positions for the second time in two months.
Joined by Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and president Sam Kennedy, Henry flew to Kansas City on Friday to address the firestorm after Devers objected to moving from designated hitter to first base after Triston Casas‘ season-ending knee injury.
Devers, who signed a 10-year, $313.5 million contract with Boston in January 2023, told reporters Thursday that he would not move to first base and criticized Breslow, saying: “I don’t understand some of the decisions that the GM makes.” During spring training, Devers said he did not want to move off third base — the position he had played in his first eight major league seasons — after the free agent signing of reigning American League Gold Glove winner Alex Bregman. Eventually, Devers agreed to become Boston’s DH, where he has played in each of the team’s 40 games this season.
Devers met with Henry and manager Alex Cora before Friday’s game and had what Breslow deemed “an honest conversation about what we value as an organization and what we believe is important to the Boston Red Sox.” The Red Sox have been using Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro — both utility men — to plug the hole at first base amid a 20-19 start.
“He expressed his feelings. John did the same thing,” Cora said. “I think the most important thing here is we’re trying to accomplish something big here. And obviously there’s changes on the roster, situations that happened, and you have to adjust.”
Breslow had introduced the possibility of moving to first base to the 28-year-old Devers, a three-time All-Star who, after a poor start, entered Friday’s game against the Kansas City Royals hitting .255/.379/.455 with 6 home runs, 25 RBIs and an AL-leading 29 walks.
Devers did not take kindly to the idea, saying Thursday: “They told me that I was going to be playing this position, DH, and now they’re going back on that. So, I just don’t think they stayed true to their word.”
The pointedness of Devers’ comments prompted Henry, who declined to comment, to fly halfway across the country and attempt to put to bed issues that have festered since spring training.
The signing of Bregman, who has been the Red Sox’s best player, accelerated moving Devers off third base, which evaluators long thought was an inevitability, even with his improvements at the position. First base had been viewed as his likeliest landing spot, but the presence of Casas pushed Devers to DH, a move he rebuffed at first before eventually complying.
Devers’ disappointment during the spring, sources said, stemmed from feeling blindsided by the lack of communication regarding the initial position switch.
“It’s my job to always put the priorities of the organization first,” Breslow said, “but I should also be evaluating every interaction I have with players, and I’ll continue to do that.”
Whether Devers eventually accepts moving to first — which could free up a lineup spot for Roman Anthony, the top prospect in baseball, or incumbent DH Masataka Yoshida after he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery — is a “secondary” issue at the moment, Breslow said.
“That decision was never going to be made on a couch in an office in Kansas City,” he said, “and that conversation is ongoing. The most important thing here is we believe that we’ve got a really good team that’s capable of winning a bunch of games and playing meaningful games down the stretch. That’s what we need to remain focused on.”
Added Cora: “The plan is to keep having conversations.”
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