Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion
At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.
It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.
Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.
A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.
The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein standing by an Iraqi flag in 2002
George W Bush had the support of Britain’s Tony Blair in his decision to invade Iraq
The falsehoods and delusions that led to war
America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.
The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.
The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.
Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.
This has weakened Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.
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US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
An Iraqi man cries in front of a house damaged by a missile in Baghdad in 2003
A lasting impact on US foreign policy
The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.
That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.
The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.
Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.
Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.
The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.
And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.
An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003
US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back
In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.
It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.
Another view of Saddam Hussein’s statue being pulled down
Thousands of crosses at a memorial for US troops killed in the Iraq war, in Lafayette, California
Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.
That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.
Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.
Police in Tennessee have discovered 14 improvised explosive devices in a man’s home as they were arresting him, the local sheriff’s office said.
Officers were executing a warrant in the home of Kevin Wade O’Neal in Old Fort, about 45 miles (70km) east of Chattanooga, after he had threatened to kill public officials and law enforcement personnel in Polk County.
After arresting the 54-year-old, officers noticed “something smouldering” in the bedroom where he was found.
Kevin Wade O’Neal. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
On closer inspection, they discovered an improvised explosive device and evacuated the house until bomb squad officers arrived at the scene.
Fourteen devices were found inside the property – none of which detonated.
Improvised explosive devices were found in Kevin Wade O’Neal’s home. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
Kevin Wade O’Neal’s home in Old Fort, Tennessee. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
O’Neal was charged with 11 counts of attempted first-degree murder, corresponding to nine officers and two other people inside the property when the suspect tried to detonate the devices.
He also faces 14 counts of prohibited weapons and one count of possession of explosive components.
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O’Neal is being held at the Polk County jail and his bond is yet to be determined.
Donald Trump says he has ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the “appropriate regions” in a row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.
It comes after Mr Medvedev, who is now deputy chair of Russia‘s Security Council, told the US president on Thursday to remember Moscow had Soviet-era nuclear strike capabilities of last resort.
On Friday, Mr Trump wrote on social media: “Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.
“Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
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Trump: ‘We’re going to protect our people’
Speaking outside the White House later in the day, Mr Trump was asked about why he had moved the submarines and replied: “We had to do that. We just have to be careful.
“A threat was made and we didn’t think it was appropriate, so I have to be very careful. So I do that on the basis of safety for our people. A threat was made by a former president of Russia and we’re going to protect our people.”
The spat between Mr Trump and Mr Medvedev came after the US president warned Russia on Tuesday it had “10 days from today” to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or face tariffs, along with its oil buyers.
Moscow has shown no sign that it will agree to Mr Trump’s demands.
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On Thursday, Mr Medvedev reminded Mr Trump that Russia possessed a Soviet-era automated nuclear retaliatory system – or “dead hand”.
Mr Medvedev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was referring to a secretive semi-automated Soviet command system designed to launch Russia’s missiles if its leadership was taken out in a decapitating strike.
He made the remarks after Mr Trump told him to “watch his words” after Mr Medvedev said the US president’s threat of hitting Russia and its oil buyers with punitive tariffs was “a game of ultimatums” and added that “each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war” between Russia and the US.
Dmitry Medvedev. Pic: Reuters
Mr Medvedev served as Russia’s president from 2008 and 2012, when Mr Putin was barred from seeking a third consecutive term, but then stepped aside to let him run again.
As deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, he has become known for his provocative and inflammatory statements since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Donald Trump has said “nobody has asked” him to pardon Ghislaine Maxwell, but insisted he has “the right to do it” as US president.
Jeffrey Epstein’s former girlfriend is currently serving a 20-year sentence after being convicted of helping the paedophile financier traffic and sexually abuse underage girls in 2021.
Prosecutors have said Epstein’s sex crimes could not have been done without Maxwell, but her lawyers have maintained that she was wrongly prosecuted and denied a fair trial, and have floated the idea of a pardon from Mr Trump.
Last week, they asked the US Supreme Court to take up her case.
When pressed on the possibility of pardoning Maxwell, Mr Trump told reporters: “I’m allowed to do it, but nobody’s asked me to do it.”
He continued: “I know nothing about it. I don’t know anything about the case, but I know I have the right to do it. I have the right to give pardons, I’ve given pardons to people before, but nobody’s even asked me to do it.”
Mr Trump also said he would not pardon Sean “Diddy” Combs, who was convicted in July on two charges of transportation to engage in prostitution.
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Trump ‘never visited Espstein island’
His comments came shortly after the federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) said Maxwell has been moved to a minimum-security prison camp in Texas.
She was being held at a low-security prison in Tallahassee, Florida, that housed men and women, but has now been transferred to a prison camp in Bryan, Texas.
When asked why Maxwell was transferred, BOP spokesperson Donald Murphy said he could not comment on the specifics, but that the BOP determines where inmates are sent based on such factors as “the level of security and supervision the inmate requires”.
Maxwell’s lawyer confirmed the move but also declined to discuss the specific reasons for it.
The Texas camp houses solely female prisoners, the majority of whom are serving time for nonviolent offences and white-collar crimes, Sky’s US partner NBC News reports.
Trump and Epstein at a party together in 1992. Pic: NBC News
Minimum-security federal prison camps house inmates considered to be the lowest security risk and some facilities do not even have fences.
A senior administration official told NBC: “Any false assertion this individual was given preferential treatment is absurd.
“Prisoners are routinely moved in some instances due to significant safety and danger concerns.”
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Maxwell has received renewed attention in recent weeks, after the US Justice Department said it would not be releasing the so-called ‘Epstein files’.
The department said a review of the Epstein case had found “no incriminating ‘client list'” and “no credible evidence” the jailed financier – who killed himself in prison in 2019 – had blackmailed famous men.
Officials from the Trump administration have since tried to cast themselves as promoting transparency in the case.
Last month, they lodged a request to unseal grand jury transcripts – which was denied – and Maxwell was last week interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.
Epstein survivor’s family criticises move
Maxwell’s move to a lower security facility has been criticised by the family of Epstein abuse survivor Virginia Giuffre, who died in April, and accusers Annie and Maria Farmer.
They said in a statement: “It is with horror and outrage that we object to the preferential treatment convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell has received.
“Ghislaine Maxwell is a sexual predator who physically assaulted minor children on multiple occasions, and she should never be shown any leniency.
“Yet, without any notification to the Maxwell victims, the government overnight has moved Maxwell to a minimum security luxury prison in Texas.”
The statement concluded: “This move smacks of a cover up. The victims deserve better.”
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