Iraq War 20 years on: How Ukraine conflict, growing power of Iran and rise of Trump can be traced back to 2003 invasion
At the turn of the century, America had emerged victorious from the Cold War and stood unchallenged.
It had greater power and influence than any other nation in history. It could have wielded that power judiciously to protect the American-led post-war world order and inspire other countries to follow its values of freedom and democracy.
Instead, it squandered that supremacy embarking on a calamitous misadventure in Iraq that was ill-advised and disastrously executed. It would be the beginning of the end of the pax Americana.
A direct line can be drawn between that debacle, which began on 20 March 2003 and others that followed, right up to the perilous state of the world today.
The war in Ukraine, the unchecked ascendancy of China, the growing power of Iran, and even the rise of Trump and the politics of populism all have roots that can be traced back to America’s folly in Iraq.
Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein standing by an Iraqi flag in 2002
George W Bush had the support of Britain’s Tony Blair in his decision to invade Iraq
The falsehoods and delusions that led to war
America went to war led by ideologues who believed they could refashion the Middle East in their own likeness and bring democracy and a more pro-Western outlook to the region.
The failure of that neoconservative project has done lasting damage to Americans’ claims of exceptionalism, and their belief that their form of governance is an example to the rest of the world. And that has by extension done enduring harm to the American-led world order.
The failings of that project in Iraq are well documented. The false premise of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, the delusion that invaders would be welcomed as liberators, the absence of any plan for the day after. The damage to America’s standing in the world has been incalculable.
Equally, human rights violations, violations of democratic norms, targeted killings, and the atrocities of Abu Ghraib prison, from where photographs showing abuse of inmates by US soldiers emerged, tarnished America’s image as the standard-bearer of democracy and human rights.
This has weakened Washington’s influence in the world. When India and other countries in the global south sit on the fence in UN resolutions on Ukraine, their ambivalence can in part be traced back to America’s record in Iraq.
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US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
An Iraqi man cries in front of a house damaged by a missile in Baghdad in 2003
A lasting impact on US foreign policy
The failure undermined America’s own self-confidence. The spectre of Iraq made Barack Obama reluctant to be drawn into the Syria conflict and punish its leader’s diabolical use of chemical weapons.
That reluctance was seen in Moscow as an American weakness, and arguably emboldened it to defy the West and seize Crimea with relative impunity a few years later. And that in turn encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine in earnest last year.
The distraction of Iraq led to failure in Afghanistan, a protracted two decades of occupation and a disastrous withdrawal.
Iraq sucked up what policymakers in Washington call bandwidth year after year, while in the east a far greater challenge was rising. The West would take years to wake up to the threat posed by China.
Closer to Iraq, Iran was strengthened. Before the invasion, its regional influence was limited to a militia in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah. Today it has clout in capitals from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.
The war in Iraq has done damage to America’s belief in itself. The conflict cost a trillion dollars and thousands of American lives. It has fuelled opposition to any more military adventures abroad.
And it has undermined Americans’ faith in both government and the political and media elites meant to hold it to account. That only in part helps explain the rise of populism that ultimately brought Trump to the White House.
An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003
US military escort a group of Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilian clothes north of Basra, Iraq, in 2003
Iraq still recovering from journey to hell and back
In Iraq, people are now no longer living under tyranny. There is reportedly some sense of hope and renewal, but only recently. And the country has literally been to hell and back to get there.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the war and the waves of sectarian violence that followed. The country has been broken, its institutions destroyed and its economy ravaged.
It is only just beginning to recover from all that trauma. But perhaps it can now look forward cautiously to a slightly better future. That is more than might have been said had Saddam Hussein remained in power or any of his impulsive, venal sons.
Another view of Saddam Hussein’s statue being pulled down
Thousands of crosses at a memorial for US troops killed in the Iraq war, in Lafayette, California
Ten years ago, George W Bush said the final verdict on his actions in Iraq would come long after his death.
That may be true, and it may take more time to judge whether the removal of one of the worst tyrants in history in any way justified the enormous cost and pain that then ensued.
Twenty years on, though, we can say the invasion and occupation have had a lasting legacy on the region and the world, and much of that has not been for the better.
Donald Trump has said his second state visit to the UK could take place in September.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer handed over an invitation from the King when he visited Washington in February.
Trump teases return to UK – latest updates
Buckingham Palace previously only said the visit would happen “when diaries allow”, but Mr Trump told reporters on Thursday: “I think they are setting a date for September.”
“I don’t know how it can be bigger than the last one,” he said.
“The last one was incredible, but they say the next one will be even more important.”
Sir Keir Starmer handed Trump the invite earlier this year. Pic: PA
Mr Trump will become the only elected political leader in modern times to be invited to two state visits by a British monarch.
The president called the UK a “great country” in his comments at the White House on Thursday and said it was “an honour to be a friend of King Charles and the family, William”.
His first state visit was in 2019, when he was hosted by the late Queen.
Second-term US presidents who have already made a state visit usually get tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle, as was the case for George W Bush and Barack Obama.
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The president was hosted by the Queen in June 2019. Pic: Reuters
But Mr Trump is set to get all the pomp and ceremony laid on again in his honour – with another state banquet likely at Buckingham Palace.
The Royal Family‘s soft power diplomacy is viewed as a way of currying favour with the president, who’s known for his love of the monarchy and links to the UK through his mother, who was born on the Isle of Lewis in Scotland.
It comes as the government seeks an economic deal with the US, in the hope of potentially lessening the impact of the president’s tariffs.
Four people are in hospital as police deal with an active shooter on a university campus in Florida.
Videos showed people running through traffic, fleeing the scene, around the time of the shooting at the student union at Florida State University’s campus in Tallahassee.
Local police were “on the scene or on the way”, according to an alert sent out by the school and students have been told to “shelter in place”.
The FBI is also said to be responding to the incident.
Florida State University students wait for news amid an active shooter incident at the school.
Pic: AP/Kate Payne
In a statement, Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare said it was “actively receiving and caring for patients” from the incident.
“At this time, details are still unfolding, and we do not yet have specific information to share. However, we want to assure the community that our teams are fully mobilised and prepared to provide the highest level of care and support to all those affected,” it added.
President Donald Trump said he was fully briefed on the incident and described it as “a shame”.
He added: “It’s a horrible thing. Horrible that things like this take place.”
Florida governor Ron DeSantis, in a statement posted on X, said: “Our prayers are with our FSU family and state law enforcement is actively responding.”
Ambulances, fire trucks and police vehicles raced to the campus around midday local time (5pm UK time) on Thursday.
As students streamed away from the area of the student union in their hundreds, some were visibly emotional and others were glued to their phones.
Dozens later gathered near the university’s music school, waiting for news.
Florida State University student Daniella Streety told NBC News of the chaos that unfolded at the scene.
She remained on lockdown in a campus building and said: “I did see them carry out one student in what looked like on a stretcher and kept them in the road until an ambulance was able to pick them up.”
Joshua Sirmans, 20, was in the university’s main library when he said alarms began going off warning of an active shooter.
Police escorted him and other students out of the library with their hands over their heads, he said.
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A US federal judge has warned that he could hold the Trump administration in contempt for violating his orders to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador.
US District Judge James E. Boasberg said he had found “probable cause” to hold the administration in criminal contempt and warned he could refer the matter for prosecution if it does not “purge” its contempt.
If the government doesn’t purge the contempt, charges could be brought forward by the Justice Department, NBC News reported.
And if the executive-led Justice Department refused to prosecute the matter, Judge Boasberg said he would appoint another attorney to prosecute the contempt.
Mr Boasberg said the administration could “purge contempt by returning those who were sent to El Salvador prison, in violation of his order, to the US.
This, he said, “might avail themselves of their right to challenge their removability”.
“The Constitution does not tolerate wilful disobedience of judicial orders – especially by officials of a coordinate branch who have sworn an oath to uphold it,” the judge wrote.
Executive vs judicial
This marks a notable escalation in the ongoing tensions between the judicial and executive branches of the US government during Donald Trump’s second term.
Parts of the US president’s legislative programme have been halted by judges, as the administration strains against the restraints of the separation of powers.
Mr Trump previously called for Judge Boasberg to be impeached while the Justice Department claimed he overstepped his authority – both reflecting the administration’s attempts to overcome perceived obstacles to the implementation of its agenda.
Mr Trump’s administration has also argued it did not violate any orders.
It claimed the judge didn’t include a turnaround directive in his written order and said the planes had already left the US by the time the order came down.
‘Administrative error’
At the heart of the legal wrangling is Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man who was sent to El Salvador by the Trump administration in March despite an immigration court order preventing his deportation.
Washington acknowledged that Mr Garcia was deported due to an “administrative error”.
The US Supreme Court has called on the administration to facilitate his return, upholding a court order by Judge Paula Xinis, but Trump officials have claimed that Mr Garcia has ties to the MS-13 gang.
Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA/AP
Mr Garcia’s lawyers have argued there is no evidence of this.
This all comes after El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele visited the White House earlier this week.
During his time with Mr Trump, Mr Bukele said that he would not return Mr Garcia, likening it to smuggling “a terrorist into the United States.”
The US and El Salvador presidents in the Oval Office.
Pic: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque
Along with Mr Garcia, the Trump administration has deported hundreds of people, mostly Venezuelans, whom it claims are gang members without presenting evidence and without a trial.
Democrat senator travels to El Salvador
Meanwhile, Democratic senator Chris Van Hollen arrived in El Salvador on Wednesday, saying he would seek a meeting with the country’s officials to secure Mr Garcia’s release.
“I just arrived in San Salvador a little while ago and look forward to meeting with the US embassy team to discuss Mr. Abrego Garcia’s release,” Mr Van Hollen said on social media.
Deportations have been an important part of Mr Trump’s second term, with him being vocal on the issue throughout the campaign trail and into office.
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