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The cost of the government’s plan to clamp down on Channel migrant crossings could amount to more than £9billion in the first three years, according to a refugee charity.

The estimates, from the Refugee Council, are based on up to 250,000 people having their asylum claims deemed inadmissible in the first three years under the Illegal Migration Bill.

The charity, which has publicly opposed the legislation, also estimates 10,000 people per year being sent to Rwanda.

“In total, between £8.7 billion and £9.6 billion will have been spent on detaining and accommodating people impacted by the Bill in the first three years of its operation,” the charity said.

However, the government says it “does not recognise” the figures used in the Refugee Council’s report.

The Home Office also says the current asylum system costs £3billion a year, including around £6million a day on hotel accommodation.

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‘We are being forced’ into Rwanda plan

The Refugee Council’s policy experts came up with the estimates as part of an impact assessment of the consequences of the first three years of the Illegal Migration Bill.

“In the first three years of the legislation coming into effect, between 225,347 and 257,101 people will have their asylum claims deemed inadmissible. This includes between 39,500 and 45,066 children,” it said in its assessment.

“At the end of the third year, between 161,147 and 192,670 people will have had their asylum claims deemed inadmissible but not have been removed.

“They will be unable to have their asylum claims processed, unable to work and will be reliant on Home Office support and accommodation indefinitely.”

‘We do not recognise these figures’

The charity estimates the Home Office being able to remove 10,000 people to Rwanda in each of the three years, detaining people for an average of 28 days and accommodating those who are not detained.

The charity said it used available data and some assumptions to come up with the cost figure.

Among the assumptions are that 88% of people who cross the Channel in a small boat each year will subsequently apply for asylum and it costs £120.42 to detain someone each day.

However, it said its cost estimates are likely to still be conservative “based on our experience at the Refugee Council of working with people who arrive in the UK”.

Responding to the Refugee Council’s analysis, a Home Office spokesman said: “We do not recognise the figures used in this report.

“The aim of the Illegal Migration Bill is to act as a deterrent and significantly reduce illegal migration when it comes into force.”

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Why do migrants cross the Channel?

The Home Office currently has a backlog of more than 160,000 immigration cases and only a small number of countries available to which the government can send failed asylum seekers.

The Illegal Migration Bill grants the government the power to deny asylum applications from those who have entered the UK illegally, most notably by arriving in small boats.

The home secretary’s outline of the bill states that if you arrive illegally in the UK “you will be detained with no recourse to immigration bail or judicial review within the first 28 days”.

It adds: “We can maintain detention thereafter so long as we have a reasonable prospect of removal.”

Read more:
Asylum seekers are going ‘underground’ in fear of being deported to Rwanda
Is the government’s new Illegal Migration Bill legal?

People in immigration detention in the UK are housed at immigration removal centres, residential short-term holding facilities or holding rooms at ports and airports.

The government also routinely houses refugees in hotels and hostels but the prime minister said in December this will stop and “disused holiday parks, surplus military sites and university halls” will be used instead.

Rwanda flights ‘by the summer’

It comes after a government source told Sky News that it hoped to start getting deportation flights to Rwanda “by the summer”.

The home secretary signed an update to the government’s migrants agreement with the central African country last weekend, expanding its scope to “all categories of people who pass through safe countries and make illegal and dangerous journeys to the UK”.

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A Home Office statement said it would allow the government to deliver on its new Illegal Migration Bill as it would mean those coming to the UK illegally, who “cannot be returned to their home country”, will be “in scope to be relocated to Rwanda”.

No one has made the journey yet.

A flight was stopped at the eleventh hour in June last year after an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights.

Earlier this month, the prime minister announced a package that will see a new detention centre established in France as well as the deployment of more French personnel and enhanced technology to patrol beaches in a shared effort to drive down illegal migration.

Throughout 2022, some 45,728 people crossed to the UK via the Channel – up 60% on the previous year.

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes ‘Putin is afraid’ that Donald Trump could still supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes 'Putin is afraid' that Donald Trump could still supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not ruled out the possibility that he can secure long-range Tomahawk missiles from the US, adding that he believes “Putin is afraid” of the consequences.

In an exclusive interview with NBC News’s Meet the Press, Ukraine’s president discussed some of the details of his two-hour meeting with Donald Trump on Friday, including his desire for the weapons after three years of war with Russia.

“It’s good that President Trump didn’t say ‘no’, but for today, didn’t say ‘yes’,” he said about the supply of the missiles, as part of a discussion which will air on Sunday.

Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy proposes ‘drone for Tomahawk’

He admitted the US president was concerned about a potential escalation with Russia, but Mr Zelenskyy told NBC, Sky News’s US partner, that the weapons are a genuine concern for Vladimir Putin.

“I think that Putin [is] afraid that United States will deliver us Tomahawks. And I think that he [is] really afraid that we will use them,” he said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy still hopes the US will supply Tomahawks. Pic: Meet the Press/NBC News
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy still hopes the US will supply Tomahawks. Pic: Meet the Press/NBC News

The weapons have a significantly longer range than any other missiles in Ukraine’s armoury and have the potential to be a game-changer in the war against Russia.

More on Russia

While Mr Trump did not rule out providing the Tomahawk missiles, he appeared cool to the prospect as he looked ahead to a meeting with the Russian president in Hungary in the coming weeks.

‘US doesn’t want escalation’

Following the meeting with Mr Trump, who held a phone call with Mr Putin on Thursday, Mr Zelenskyy told reporters: “We spoke about long-range (missiles) of course. And I do not want to make statements about it.”

But he added: “We don’t speak about it because… United States doesn’t want this escalation”.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's plans to secure new missiles had worried Russia. Pic: Reuters
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plans to secure new missiles had worried Russia. Pic: Reuters

Later in a post on X, Mr Zelenskyy said he was counting on President Trump to “bring this war closer to an end”.

“We discussed all key issues – our positions on the battlefield, long-range capabilities and air defence, and, of course, diplomatic prospects,” he said.

“Russia must end the aggression it started and continues to deliberately prolong. We count on the United States’ pressure.”

In a roundtable with journalists following the meeting, Mr Trump confirmed that hitting targets deep inside Russian territory would be an “escalation”.

Donald Trump said hitting targets deep inside Russian territory would be an 'escalation'. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump said hitting targets deep inside Russian territory would be an ‘escalation’. Pic: Reuters

He also said he was hesitant to tap into the US’ supply of Tomahawks, saying: “I have an obligation also to make sure that we’re completely stocked up as a country, because you never know what’s going to happen in war and peace.

“We’d much rather have them not need Tomahawks. We’d much rather have the war be over to be honest.”

Analysis: Is Trump being ‘played’ by Putin?

Before Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he hosted one of his favourite singers, Andrea Bocelli, in the Oval Office.

The Italian tenor serenaded him with the signature track Time To Say Goodbye, a song about hope and new beginnings.

But the next event on his agenda suggested antipathy between Trump and the Ukrainian president are firmly lodged in the past.

On the key issue of whether Vladimir Putin actually wants peace, the pair continue to fundamentally disagree.

Trump repeated several times his belief that Putin is committed to ending the war, which may come as a surprise to the people of eastern Ukraine, being pummeled by an expanded Russian offensive in the past few months.

Trump also spoke about “bad blood on both sides”, again inferring equal blame on Zelenskyy, whose sovereign nation was invaded, and Putin, who is doing the invading.

It’s in Putin’s gift to stop the fighting immediately, but that was glossed over.

Read more from Martha .

At Mr Trump and Mr Putin’s last meeting in Alaska in August, there were hopes that the conflict may finally be coming to an end.

But the US president was unable to pressure the Russian leader into accepting a ceasefire or a one-on-one meeting with Mr Zelenskyy.

Read more from Sky News:
Putin’s challenge ahead of summit
Was Putin forced back to talks?
Listen: Trump-Putin – Friends reunited?

Following Friday’s meeting at the White House, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer confirmed he had called Mr Zelenskyy to reiterate his support.

Ukraine has UK’s ‘resolute support’

A Downing Street spokesperson said: “The prime minister spoke to the president of Ukraine, European leaders and the NATO secretary general this evening following President Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House today.

“The leaders reiterated their unwavering commitment to Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression. A just and lasting peace for Ukraine was the only way to stop the killing for good, they agreed.

“Further discussions about how they could support Ukraine in the lead up to, and following, a ceasefire would continue this week, including in a Coalition of the Willing call on Friday, the leaders agreed.

“Following the call with world leaders this evening, the prime minister then spoke to President Zelenskyy bilaterally to underscore the United Kingdom’s resolute support for Ukraine.”

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Donald Trump admits it’s possible he’s being ‘played’ by Vladimir Putin over Ukraine

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Donald Trump admits it's possible he's being 'played' by Vladimir Putin over Ukraine

Before Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he hosted one of his favourite singers, Andrea Bocelli, in the Oval Office.

The Italian tenor serenaded him with the signature track Time To Say Goodbye, a song about hope and new beginnings.

But the next event on his agenda suggested antipathy between Trump and the Ukrainian president are firmly lodged in the past.

On the key issue of whether Vladimir Putin actually wants peace, the pair continue to fundamentally disagree.

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What happened at the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting?

Trump repeated several times his belief that Putin is committed to ending the war, which may come as a surprise to the people of eastern Ukraine, being pummeled by an expanded Russian offensive in the past few months.

Trump also spoke about “bad blood on both sides”, again inferring equal blame on Zelenskyy, whose sovereign nation was invaded, and Putin, who is doing the invading.

It’s in Putin’s gift to stop the fighting immediately, but that was glossed over.

More on Donald Trump

Zelenskyy, clearly contorted by a need to put the record straight but not anger the famously mercurial man on the other side of the table, fired back that it is the Ukrainians who are committed to a ceasefire, a trilateral meeting and ultimately, an end to this war.

Ukraine war: Zelenskyy proposes ‘drone for Tomahawk’ deal

Relations between Zelenskyy and Trump have, obviously, improved from February when the Ukrainian president was berated and left the White House early.

On that occasion, he was mocked for wearing a T-shirt and so, the next two visits, he has sported an all black suit. He has also learned that Trump responds to flattery and, accordingly, he peppered the president with compliments.

Zelenskyy, pictured following his meeting with Trump, has learned that the president responds to flattery. Pic: AP
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Zelenskyy, pictured following his meeting with Trump, has learned that the president responds to flattery. Pic: AP

He credited him with “managing the ceasefire in the Middle East”, and said he believes he has a “chance” to do the same in Ukraine.

Trump came into the meeting buoyed by the diplomatic success of the past fortnight in the Middle East, intoxicated by the praise he has received from all sides for brokering the hostage deal. But the war, he said he could solve in 24 hours, is proving a tougher nut to crack, and he’s growing frustrated with everyone involved.

That much could be gleaned from his Truth Social post after the meeting, which implored Putin and Zelenskyy to end the war along its current lines. “Let both claim Victory, let History decide!” he wrote.

Read more from Sky News:
Zelenskyy on US ‘long-range’ weapons
Putin faces difficult trip to summit
Trump’s ‘game of diplomatic chess’

It was a marked shift from less than a month ago, when Trump, at that point more angered by Putin, suggested Ukraine could potentially win back all its territory.

As recently as Sunday, he was threatening to send long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine but he made clear after their meeting that he wouldn’t be doing that right now. It’s likely he will wait until at least after his trailed meeting with Putin in Budapest.

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I was in Alaska in August when Trump hosted Putin and laid out the literal and metaphorical red carpet for him.

The US president went in with two aims: to broker a ceasefire and a one-on-one meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy. He left with neither and there is no public sign that Putin has shifted from his maximalist aims in Ukraine.

Trump greets Putin on the red carpet in Alaska in August. Pic: AP
Image:
Trump greets Putin on the red carpet in Alaska in August. Pic: AP

Even by Trump’s own measurement, the summit was a failure.

Yet he seems determined to take the Russian president at his word, granting him first a phone call ahead of the Zelenskyy visit to Washington DC and now another meeting.

Putin was first successful in getting Trump to hold off on more severe sanctions on Russia, which were crippling economically. Now he has, seemingly, played a role in persuading Trump to hold off on sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

The US president was asked by a journalist whether it was possible he was being played by Putin. He admitted it was possible but said he usually comes out of these things pretty well. Time will tell.

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Videos show fresh evidence of Israeli support for Gaza militia

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Videos show fresh evidence of Israeli support for Gaza militia

It’s the dead of night, and a convoy is driving along a road in Gaza’s far north, 1.4km inside the Israeli area of control.

Few people remain in this part of Gaza, near the Erez border crossing.

Almost all buildings here have been destroyed, and official data says that no aid has come through the crossing since February. These vehicles, however, are loaded with supplies.

They stop briefly as a child and two men disembark to collect water bottles and plastic jerrycans that had fallen off one of the overburdened pickup trucks.

The convoy moves south, past destroyed buildings and debris, ending at an abandoned school.

This is the headquarters of the militia led by Ashraf Al Mansi, which calls itself the People’s Army.

Earlier this week, Al Mansi released a video statement warning Hamas against approaching the areas under his control.

The armed group is one of four active anti-Hamas militias identified by Sky News – all of them based inside parts of Gaza still controlled by Israel.

Hamas has sought to reassert its authority in recent days by clamping down on such groups. Sky News has verified footage of gun battles and public executions on the streets of Gaza City.

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Sky’s Dominic Waghorn reports on violence between Palestinians.

Last week, a Sky News investigation revealed that Israel has been facilitating the supply of guns, vehicles, cash and food to the most influential of these militias, Yasser Abu Shabab’s Popular Forces, based in Gaza’s far south.

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A Sky News investigation has uncovered new details about Israel’s support for a Palestinian rebel group.

The new footage viewed by Sky News suggests a similar arrangement has been set up in Gaza’s far north to supply Al Mansi’s militia.

The IDF and Al Mansi did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Why are the videos important?

Two videos, uploaded by a member of Al Mansi’s militia on 9 and 11 October, show convoys taking an identical route down to the militia’s headquarters.

Neither video shows the supplies being loaded onto the trucks, but both videos begin at a point less than 400 metres from an IDF outpost.

Pic: Planet Labs PBC
Image:
Pic: Planet Labs PBC

To the north of this point, the road branches off in two. The western branch leads to the IDF outpost, while the eastern branch leads to the Erez border crossing.

It’s not possible to determine exactly what is being transported, but we can see food, water bottles and a large amount of fuel.

Water, food and fuel are visible on board the trucks.
Image:
Water, food and fuel are visible on board the trucks.

At one point in one of the videos, the back of a car is shown filled with plastic jerrycans. These are marked with the branding of SOS Energy, an Israeli fuel supplier.

Hamas is cracking down on the militias

The new evidence of Israeli backing for Gaza’s militias comes as Hamas is attempting to reassert its authority through a violent crackdown on suspected collaborators.

On Thursday, Israeli news website Mako reported that Hamas had managed to take control of at least 45 pickup trucks, cash and hundreds of weapons from militias backed by Israel, citing IDF sources.

The crackdown has included a multi-day assault on Gaza City’s Al Sabra neighbourhood, home to the Doghmosh clan – an influential extended family with a long history of tensions with Hamas.

Clan members told Sky News that Hamas’s attack, which began as an attempt to arrest members of an anti-Hamas militia, had morphed into an indiscriminate campaign of revenge against the family as a whole.

“Hamas has not targeted any family,” Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told Sky News.

“The occupation has formed armed militias loyal to it, and these militias are accused of high treason – the most severe charge in Palestinian revolutionary law.”

Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasam told Sky News that Gaza's government was attempting to restore order.
Image:
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasam told Sky News that Gaza’s government was attempting to restore order.

The head of Gaza’s Supreme Council for Tribal Affairs Hosni Al Mughanni tells Sky News that Yasser Abu Shabab “deserves the harshest punishment for his crimes” and that he “threw himself into the enemy’s arms”.

Hosni Al Mughanni, head of Gaza's Supreme Council for Tribal Affairs, spoke to Sky News in Gaza.
Image:
Hosni Al Mughanni, head of Gaza’s Supreme Council for Tribal Affairs, spoke to Sky News in Gaza.

“These rogue groups terrified us more than the enemy at times, violating people’s sanctities and property, stripping them of cash, phones, even watches, and shooting legs,” he says.

We asked Al Mughanni about the summary executions that have taken place in recent days in Gaza City.

“With no functioning courts, prosecution, or police stations, all of which are destroyed, how can formal justice proceed?

“We are for restoring security, security is the basis of life.”

Additional reporting by Celine Alkhaldi, Middle East producer.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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