New York is bracing itself for chaos after Donald Trump claimed he will soon be arrested there.
It comes after a grand jury investigating the former president’s business affairs invited him to testify – often a sign an indictment is close.
The Manhattan criminal case centres around alleged ‘hush’ money sent to former adult film star Stormy Daniels after she said they had an affair.
As well as the New York case, Mr Trump also faces probes in Florida, Georgia and over the insurrection in Washington DC.
Stormy Daniels (criminal)
Image: Stormy Daniels claims she had an affair with Donald Trump
Ms Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, claims she had an affair with Mr Trump in 2006, which the former US president denies.
In 2016 when he was running for president, she offered to sell her story to the press.
Mr Trump’s then-lawyer Michael Cohen was notified of her plans, resulting in a $130,000 (£105,000) payment being made to keep Ms Daniels quiet.
Once he was elected, Mr Trump reimbursed Mr Cohen by paying him more than double the original amount. He continued to deny the affair, however.
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New York investigators have been looking into the former president’s finances for years – originally led by former District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr.
But when he was replaced with Alvin Bragg in 2022, Mr Bragg decided to drop the grand jury investigation into claims the Trump empire fraudulently inflated its real estate value.
Instead he decided to focus on the silence money case last summer, impanelling a grand jury (one assembled in secret to determine whether there’s enough evidence to prosecute) in January.
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According to court documents, Mr Trump falsely listed his former lawyer’s reimbursement as “legal services”.
If the grand jury is persuaded, this could result in an accounting fraud charge.
They could also decide to indict him on campaign fraud charges – as silencing Ms Daniels’s claims could have helped propel him to power.
The former president has claimed he is likely to be arrested, but no indictment has been issued.
He describes the investigation as a politically motivated “witch hunt”.
The grand jury will reconvene next week, while New York authorities prepare for unrest after Mr Trump urged his supporters to protest there.
Trump Organization fraud (civil)
Image: Trump Tower in New York
In a separate case the New York attorney general Letitia James is pursuing a civil lawsuit against the Trump Organization for overvaluing its real estate assets by billions.
Lodged last September, Ms James alleges members of the Trump group lied to lenders about the group’s net worth to get bigger loans.
Documents see her accuse Mr Trump, his sons Donald Jr, Eric, and daughter Ivanka of “astounding” fraud.
She is also seeking $250m (£226m) she claims the Trumps obtained fraudulently.
The case is set to go to court in October, and while it is not a criminal case at this stage, Ms James has referred it to the district attorney as such.
The lawsuit could however ban Mr Trump and his children from owning real estate in New York for five years – or being business directors or officers there.
Classified documents (criminal)
Image: Trump’s home in Florida was raided in August last year
The US Justice Department (DoJ) launched a criminal investigation into Mr Trump after he was found to have removed classified documents from the White House when he left in 2021.
It is being led by special counsel Jack Smith – an independent lawyer hired by the DoJ.
According to court documents, Mr Trump resisted federal government efforts to retrieve official paperwork for more than a year.
This could open him up to separate allegations of obstructing justice.
In August the FBI obtained a court warrant to raid his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, where they found 11,000 documents – more than 100 of which were marked as classified.
Mr Trump has claimed he “declassified” some of the documents, although there is no evidence for this.
He also says some of them were subject to privilege, which stops them being used in legal proceedings.
Mr Smith’s investigation is ongoing.
Georgia election result (criminal)
Image: Mr Trump disputed the Georgia results in the 2020 presidential election
Mr Trump disputed the results in several states after he lost the 2020 presidential election, including Georgia where the close margin triggered a run-off.
Ahead of the Democratic victory on 5 January 2021, a phone call between Mr Trump and Republican secretary of state Brad Raffensperger was leaked to the media.
In it, Mr Trump told Mr Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes”.
This sparked a 26-member grand jury investigation into electoral fraud, racketeering and making false statements to government officials – led by Fani Willis, top prosecutor for Georgia’s Fulton County.
They spent eight months interrogating more than 70 witnesses and filed a lengthy report earlier this year.
It is not clear whether Mr Trump would be indicted as around 20 of his allies have also been named as potential targets of the probe.
The report is being kept secret, but Ms Willis will decide whether to prosecute later this year.
Mr Trump rejects the investigation, calling Ms Willis a “young, ambitious, Radical Left Democrat… who is presiding over one of the most Crime Ridden and Corrupt places”.
January 6 riots (criminal and civil)
Image: A congressional committee has recommended Trump is indicted on four criminal charges
In December, a congressional committee filed an 845-page report on the insurrection at the White House on 6 January 2021.
They concluded that Mr Trump and his allies had a “multipart plan to overturn the 2020 presidential election”, including the attack on the Capitol.
It recommended Mr Trump be indicted on four criminal charges – but this is largely symbolic as only the DoJ can do so.
Separately, DoJ special counsel Jack Smith is still carrying out a criminal investigation into the Capitol assault.
While Mr Trump could be charged – he hasn’t been called for questioning yet – it is not clear what the exact focus is. But hundreds of people involved on the day have already been indicted or jailed.
Two congressmen have pursued civil lawsuits for inciting the riots on 6 January.
The first – by Mississippi Democrat Bernie Thompson – was dropped while the House committee gained momentum. But the second – by California Democrat Eric Swalwell – is ongoing.
Mr Trump has continued to claim widescale voter fraud took place.
Mr Trump is expected to travel to Scotland in the coming weeks to visit his golf courses ahead of an official state visit in September.
“We’re going to be meeting with the British prime minister, very respectful, and we are going to have a meeting with him, probably in Aberdeen, and we’re going to do a lot of different things.
“We’re going to also refine the trade deal that we’ve made.
“So we’ll be meeting mostly […] at probably one of my properties, or maybe not, depending on what happens, but we’ll be in Aberdeen, in Scotland, meeting with the prime minister.”
Image: Donald Trump speaks to reporters outside the White House. Pic: Reuters
The UK and US signed a trade deal earlier this year that reduced car and aerospace tariffs, but questions have remained about a promise from Washington to slash steel tariffs.
In May, the White House said it would exempt the UK from plans for a 25% tariff on global steel imports but that is yet to be ratified and the levy has since been doubled on all other countries.
Mr Trump had insisted that unless Britain could finalise the details of a metals trade deal with the US by 9 July, when wider “Liberation Day” tariff pauses were expected to expire, he would slap the UK with a 50% rate as well.
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2:49
Who will be positively impacted by the UK-US trade deal?
However that pause was extended until 1 August, with the US president saying nations would instead get letters informing them of his plans.
Downing Street is still hoping it can secure 0% tariffs on steel.
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On Tuesday, a Downing Street spokesperson played down the significance of the meeting in Scotland, stressing it was a private trip so it “will not be a formal bilateral”.
Since taking office in January, Mr Trump has imposed tariffs on countries across the world in a bid to boost domestic production and address trade deficits.
As well as sector specific tariffs, there is a baseline tariff of 10% for most other imports, though some countries face higher rates.
The UK was the first to hash out a deal on exemptions after a successful charm offensive by Sir Keir.
Mr Trump has praised the PM, telling the BBC earlier on Tuesday: “I really like the prime minister a lot, even though he’s a liberal.”
There are also plans for Scottish First Minister John Swinney to meet Mr Trump during his trip.
It will be followed by the official state visit between 17-19 September, when Mr Trump will be hosted by the King and Queen at Windsor Castle and accompanied by his wife Melania.
It will be Mr Trump’s second state visit to the UK, having previously been hosted during his first term in 2019.
Donald Trump has agreed to send “top of the line weapons” to NATO to support Ukraine – and threatened Russia with “severe” tariffs if it doesn’t agree to end the war.
Speaking with NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte during a meeting at the White House, the US president said: “We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons, and they’re going to be paying for them.
“This is billions of dollars worth of military equipment which is going to be purchased from the United States, going to NATO, and that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.”
Weapons being sent include surface-to-air Patriot missile systems and batteries, which Ukrainehas asked for to defend itself from Russian air strikes.
Mr Trump also said he was “very unhappy” with Russia, and threatened “severe tariffs” of “about 100%” if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days.
The White House added that the US would put “secondary sanctions” on countries that buy oil from Russia if an agreement was not reached.
Later on Monday, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Mr Trump and said he was “grateful” for the US president’s “readiness to help protect our people’s lives”.
Analysis: Will Trump’s shift in tone make a difference?
As ever, there is confusion and key questions are left unanswered, but Donald Trump’s announcement on Ukraine and Russia today remains hugely significant.
His shift in tone and policy on Ukraine is stark. And his shift in tone (and perhaps policy) on Russia is huge.
After criticising Vladimir Putin’s “desire to drag it out”, he said he appreciated “preparing a new decision on Patriots for Ukraine” – and added Kyiv is “working on major defence agreements with America”.
It comes after weeks of frustration from Mr Trump over Mr Putin’s refusal to agree to an end to the conflict, with the Russian leader telling the US president he would “not back down”from Moscow’s goals in Ukraine at the start of the month.
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1:28
Trump threatens Russia with ‘severe’ tariffs’
During the briefing on Monday, Mr Trump said he had held calls with Mr Putin where he would think “that was a nice phone call”, but then “missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city, and that happens three or four times”.
“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy,” he added.
After Mr Trump’s briefing, Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev said on Telegram: “If this is all that Trump had in mind to say about Ukraine today, then all the steam has gone out.”
Meanwhile, Mr Zelenskyy met with US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, where they “discussed the path to peace” by “strengthening Ukraine’s air defence, joint production, and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe”.
He thanked both the envoy for the visit and Mr Trump “for the important signals of support and the positive decisions for both our countries”.
As ever, there is confusion and key questions are left unanswered, but Donald Trump’s announcement on Ukraine and Russia today remains hugely significant.
His shift in tone and policy on Ukraine is stark. And his shift in tone (and perhaps policy) on Russia is huge.
Ever since Mr Trump returned to the White House he has flatly refused to side with Ukraine over the Russian invasion.
He has variously blamed Ukraine for the invasion and blamed Joe Biden for the invasion, but has never been willing to accept that Russia is the aggressor and that Ukraine has a legitimate right to defend itself.
Today, all that changed. In a clear signal that he is fed up with Vladimir Putin and now fully recognises the need to help Ukraine defend itself, he announced the US will dramatically increase weapons supplies to Kyiv.
Image: Pic: Reuters
But, in keeping with his transactional nature and in a reflection of the need to keep his isolationist “America-First” base on side, he has framed this policy shift as a multi-billion dollar “deal” in which America gains financially.
American weapons are to be “sold” to NATO partners in Europe who will then either transfer them to Ukraine or use them to bolster their own stockpiles as they transfer their own existing stocks to Kyiv.
“We’ve made a deal today,” the president said in the Oval Office. “We are going to be sending them weapons, and they are paying for them. We are manufacturing, they are going to be paying for it. Our meeting last month was very successful… these are wealthy nations.”
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2:27
What will Trump’s weapons deal mean for Ukraine?
This appears to be a clever framing of the “deal”. Firstly, America has always benefited financially by supplying weapons to Ukraine because much of the investment has been in American factories, American jobs and American supply chains.
While the details are not entirely clear, the difference now appears to be that the weapons would be bought by the Europeans or by NATO as an alliance.
The Americans are the biggest contributor to NATO, and so if the alliance is buying the weapons, America too will be paying, in part, for the weapons it is selling.
However, if the weapons are being bought by individual NATO members to replenish their own stocks, then it may be the case that the US is not paying.
NATO officials referred all questions on this issue to the White House, which has not yet provided clarity to Sky News.
It is also not yet clear what type of weapons will be made available and whether it will include offensive, as well defensive, munitions.
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1:49
Will Trump’s deal make a difference?
A key element of the package will likely be Patriot missile batteries, 10 to 15 of which are believed to be currently in Europe.
Under this deal, it is understood that some of them will be added to the six or so batteries believed to be presently in Ukraine. New ones would then be purchased from US manufacturers to backfill European stocks. A similar arrangement may be used for other weapons.
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The president also issued the Russian leader with an ultimatum, saying that Putin had 50 days to make a peace deal or else face 100% “secondary tariffs”. It’s thought this refers to a plan to tariff, or sanction, third countries that supply Russia with weapons and buy Russian oil.
This, the Americans hope, will force those countries to apply pressure on Russia.
But the 50-day kicking of the can down the road also gives Russia space to prevaricate. So, a few words of caution: first, the Russians are masters of prevarication. Second, Trump tends to let deadlines slip. And third, we all know Trump can flip-flop on his position repeatedly.
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2:00
‘Trump sides with the Ukrainian cause’
Maybe the most revealing aspect of all this came when a reporter asked Mr Trump: “How far are you willing to go if Putin sends more bombs in the coming days?”
“Don’t ask me questions like that…”
Mr Trump doesn’t really know what to do if Mr Putin continues to take him for a ride.
Mr Biden, before him, supplied Ukraine with the weapons to continue fighting.
If Mr Trump wants to end this, he may need to provide Ukraine with enough weapons to win.
But that would prolong, or even escalate, a war he wants to end now.