MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
Who will be the best player of the 2023 MLB season?
Opening Day is almost here, which means it’s time to break down how baseball’s elite stack up against each other.
To create our annual MLB Rank list of the top 100 players in the sport, we presented a panel of ESPN baseball experts with pairings upon pairings of the biggest names in the game and asked one simple question: Which player will be better in 2023?
But it raises the question: How do you compare a player like Shohei Ohtani to Mike Trout? Or Aaron Judge? And where do baseball’s best pitchers land? It seems impossible to pit these stars against one another, but we did it — and one player came out on top.
Our list features Cy Young Award winners, MVPs, veterans building Hall of Fame résumés and young megastars who could dominate MLB for years to come. But who’s No. 1? And where does the best player on your team rank?
ESPN MLB experts Alden Gonzalez, Dave Schoenfield, Joon Lee, Jesse Rogers and Brad Doolittle broke down why each player is ranked where they are and what to expect from them in the upcoming season.
Watch: “Baseball Tonight” MLB Rank special, Sunday at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN
More: Snubs, surprises
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Ohtani ranks first heading into the 2023 season. He is the most uniquely talented player in baseball history, and it took a historic offensive season from Aaron Judge to prevent him from becoming a back-to-back MVP. Ohtani, still only 28, is both one of the most dominant starting pitchers and one of the most feared hitters in the sport, along with being one of the fastest runners. (And if he wanted to be an outfielder, coaches believe he could become an excellent defender, too.)
From 2021 to 2022, Ohtani put up a higher wRC+ than Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, and a lower xFIP than Max Scherzer, Max Fried and Sandy Alcantara. Outside of Babe Ruth, briefly a two-way player more than 100 years ago, nobody has even attempted both traits at this level, let alone excelled at it. — Gonzalez
Season prediction: As the years go on, Ohtani seems to grow more comfortable in a two-way role. His command on the mound continually evolves, his familiarity with opposing pitchers only grows. It has become clear while watching him perform in the World Baseball Classic that Ohtani is the best baseball player in the world. Expect another MVP-worthy season — with a $500 million-plus contract to follow. — Gonzalez
CF | Los Angeles Angels
Perhaps the only man who can challenge Ohtani as the game’s best player is a healthy Mike Trout. Health, though, has been an issue of late. Trout has played in fewer than 70% of the Angels’ games over the last five years, most notably missing the last four and a half months of the 2021 season with a troublesome calf. When he does play, however, he resembles the best player on the planet.
Last year, Trout appeared in only 119 games but still managed 40 home runs and a .999 OPS and won his ninth Silver Slugger. His 81.4 FanGraphs WAR since his first full season in 2012 is laughably beyond anybody else’s grasp (second place is Max Scherzer, at 60.1). At 31, Trout should still have a few prime years left. He just needs to stay off the injured list.
Season prediction: Trout is still fully capable of standing out even among the game’s best players, and he should continue to do so. If he stays healthy, he might lead the majors in every major offensive category. Just don’t expect a bunch of stolen bases or acrobatic catches; Trout, rightly, has become conscious of the importance of preserving his body. — Gonzalez
Putting together a historic season is going to vault someone right up this list. Judge captivated the sports world by breaking Rogers Maris’ American League home run record. Now, armed with an enormous contract, Judge enters the second phase of his career. While he is one of the sport’s most recognizable faces and biggest stars, a World Series title has eluded him. And while Judge will always be remembered for his historic 2022 season, the success of the Yankees during this contract will ultimately determine his legacy.
Season prediction: Judge lives up to his new contract by continuing as the heartbeat of the Yankees’ lineup. That lineup went where Judge went last season. In the moments where he struggled, so did the entire offense. When he flourished, so did the Yankees. The outfielder has put together two straight seasons of strong health and New York will need him to continue that, especially as the rotation is plagued by injuries. — Lee
Machado turned 30 during the 2022 season, and if that midcareer performance was any indication, he’s well on his way to Cooperstown. Machado is one of baseball’s most consistent stars, not just in terms of production but also — and perhaps more importantly — durability.
On his way to finishing second in National League MVP balloting, Machado created more runs than ever in 2022 and reached triple digits in both runs and RBIs in the same season for the first time. His defense isn’t as off-the-charts as it once was, but he remains an excellent defender with the arm and speed to suggest he’s not going to have to move off the hot corner any time soon. Also, Machado’s sprint speed has remained largely unchanged and, over the past two seasons, he has stolen 21 bags in 25 attempts. Thus, the new rules could portend a career season on the basepaths for him.
Season prediction: Given the way the ball was flying off Machado’s bat during the WBC, he seems poised for another run at his first MVP award. He has continued to evolve as a hitter, adding more launch without becoming too pull-oriented. Machado’s RBI count in this particular San Diego lineup could be eye-popping, and if he does tack on some steals, his stat line in the context of a Padres run to the NL West title will be too much for NL MVP voters to ignore. — Doolittle
Freeman put together one of the best seasons of his career in the first year of his new contract in Los Angeles, hitting .325/./407/.511 with 21 homers and a 5.9 bWAR, the third-best mark of his 13-year career. The Dodgers’ lineup will be leaning on him even more this season with the departures of Trea Turner and Justin Turner. Freeman has been among the most durable players in baseball since he entered the league in 2010, playing fewer than 147 games just twice, in 2015 and 2017 (with the exception of the COVID-shortened 2020 season). Freeman’s exceptional ability to make contact will likely have him aging better than most hitters heading into their mid-30s.
Season prediction: Freddie Freeman continues being Freddie Freeman. Since 2013, he has hit below .300 just thrice. The Dodgers will need him to keep that level of production up, as the division gets tougher with the Padres’ recent big-ticket additions. — Lee
RF | San Diego Padres
How do you know you’re a future Hall of Famer? When you post clearly the worst season of your five-year career and you still have a .401 on-base percentage, an OPS+ that rates you as 49% better than a league-average hitter and you win your third straight Silver Slugger award.
Soto’s NL-leading 135 walks were paired with just 96 whiffs, underscoring his status as the game’s most disciplined hitter. But it’s not just take, take, take. When Soto gets a pitch to hit, he makes contact, usually hard contact. His dip in 2022 can be traced to a BABIP (.249) that was 60 points under his career mark. Part of that was because he became a little more launch-and-pull oriented but that need not be a permanent change. And even if it is, his in-play numbers in a post-shift world could be frightening.
Season prediction: Soto looked like he was in midseason form during the WBC — as in the middle of a career season — and after last season’s flirtation with playing like a mere mortal, expect a monster campaign as his future free agency (or a record contract extension before then) looms. What does a monster season look like for this guy? Something like .340, 45 homers, 150 walks, 8.0 WAR. And those estimates could be modest. — Doolittle
It’s hard not to go there. He was one of the game’s biggest stars as a rookie. He plays center field for the Mariners. He hits tape-measure home runs and makes impossible catches. He has the million-dollar megawatt smile. Ken Griffey Jr. had his own candy bar; J-Rod has his own cooking show.
At age 21, Griffey produced a 155 OPS+; Rodriguez, in his rookie season at age 21, produced a 147 OPS+. Griffey finished ninth in the MVP voting; J-Rod finished seventh. After going homerless in April and hitting just one in his first 34 games, Rodriguez hit .297/.358/.567 the rest of the way with 27 home runs in 99 games. Now imagine that over a full season. Enjoy, Mariners — and baseball — fans.
Season prediction: It’s hard to predict an MVP award in a league with Ohtani, but let’s go with Rodriguez hitting 35-plus home runs and finishing in the top three while leading the Mariners to — surprise! — a division title. — Schoenfield
Turner is the complete package. His combination of speed and power at shortstop is the reason why the Phillies invested $300 million in him. At various times in his career, he led the league in games played, plate appearances, at-bats, stolen bases, triples, batting average and total bases.
Last year might have been his best on the basepaths, as he stole 27 of 30 — good for a 90% success rate. He also hit 21 home runs, producing yet another season with an OPS over .800. He’s done it in four consecutive years, helping him to his huge new contract.
Season prediction: The new rules — starting with the bigger bases — will be a godsend for the speedy Turner. He’ll set a career high in steals with at least 50. — Rogers
RF | Los Angeles Dodgers
Betts, venturing into his age-30 season, is among the few legitimate five-tool players in the sport, despite being listed at 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds. He’s a gifted defender with a cannon for an arm, but he’s also one of the game’s fastest players and best all-around hitters, bringing elite bat-to-ball skills and, yes, power. Betts has finished within the top five in MVP voting four times over the past seven seasons, including last year, when he won his sixth Gold Glove and his fifth Silver Slugger. He is the only player to accumulate more than 200 home runs and more than 150 stolen bases from 2015 to 2022. The Dodgers will play him some at second base this year — and he’ll probably be great at that, too.
Season prediction: Two traditional numbers to keep an eye on with Betts: stolen bases and RBIs. Betts hasn’t reached 20 stolen bases since swiping 30 in 2018, but the bigger bases and the limited pickoffs should present more opportunities. He hasn’t driven in 100 runs since 2017, but the Dodgers would love to put him in more run-producing situations this season — if they can find someone else to lead off. — Gonzalez
Pitchers fear Arenado as much as anyone in the game: He’s hit at least 30 home runs in seven consecutive seasons (not including 2020). He also only struck out 72 times in 2022 while drawing 52 walks. In this era of baseball, that’s a great ratio for a power hitter.
There are some pitchers that like him: His own. It’s because he’s a vacuum at third base, winning the Gold Glove there in every year he’s been in the league. He also has five silver slugger awards, including last season when he finished third in MVP voting.
Arenado is arguably the best combination of offense and defense in the entire game — easily placing him in the top 20 players in MLB.
Season prediction: Arenado will swap with teammate Paul Goldschmidt and win the MVP in 2023. — Rogers
There was an early-20th-century pitcher known as Iron Man McGinnity. We might as well start calling the Marlins ace Iron Man Alcantara. He easily led the majors in innings pitched last season and is the only pitcher to top 200 innings each of the past two seasons. That’s fun, but you have to dominate to rank high on this list.
In 2022, Alcantara transformed from quality innings-eater to Cy Young winner — and don’t bet against him repeating. It all starts with a beautiful delivery from a lean, 6-foot-5 frame. If Michelangelo were to sculpt a pitcher, Alcantara would be his model. He throws 98 mph and that helps set up one of the most devastating pitches in baseball, his unhittable, nod-your-head-and-walk-back-to-the-bench changeup. Batters went 36-for-248 against it with 78 strikeouts and nary a home run.
Season prediction: Alcantara leads the majors once again in innings pitched, makes the All-Star Game and finishes in the top five of the Cy Young voting, although his ERA rises half a run (thanks, shaky Marlins defense!). — Schoenfield
1B | St. Louis Cardinals
At 34, baseball’s perennial MVP bridesmaid finally broke through with a season that really was another representative campaign for a player who posts nothing but terrific stat lines. Now a first-time reigning MVP, Goldschmidt will have his own tough act to follow after landing in the top three of the NL in all the slash categories and leading in slugging, OPS and OPS+ (a career-best 180). He also finished the season with an MVP-esque 7.8 WAR, according to Baseball Reference. While that 180 OPS+ is a high bar, don’t expect a collapse: Goldschmidt has posted 140 or better nine of his 11 full seasons. He’ll spend the next few years burnishing what is shaping up as a Hall-worthy resume.
Season prediction: Goldschmidt turned 35 late last season and eventually, his game will start to fray. There was no sign of that last season, but expecting a repeat of those numbers is probably unrealistic. Expect more of an “average” Goldschmidt season — 140-145 OPS+ — which is still awfully good. — Doolittle
Mr. Consistency. Ramirez is a baseball player in the way grizzled old scouts might describe a player who isn’t the strongest or the fastest or the biggest or the flashiest. Other than an inexplicable slump in the first half of 2019, he has been one of baseball’s best hitters — and best all-around players — since 2017. We can see that respect in his results in the MVP voting: third, third, second, sixth and fourth in five of the past six seasons. Ramirez already has 2.54 MVP Award Shares in his career — more than Rickey Henderson, Chipper Jones or Cal Ripken Jr.
He’s durable, he steals 20 bases every year, he strikes out fewer than 100 times a season, he swats doubles and home runs and he’s a solid defender. Nobody ever seems to call him one of the top 10 best players in baseball, but at the end of the season, he’s always right there.
Season prediction: This one is easy. Ramirez hits 32 home runs (give or take a few), drives in over 100 runs, leads the league in doubles for the third time and finishes in the top six in MVP voting. — Schoenfield
His sublime 2019 season at 21 years old — when he hit .280 with 41 home runs while leading the NL in stolen bases (37) and runs (127) and played with the frenetic enthusiasm of a pack of Shiba Inu puppies — is now a few years in the rearview mirror, but this ranking shows we haven’t forgotten about him.
When Acuña tore his ACL on July 10, 2021, he ranked fifth in the majors in home runs, fourth in stolen bases and fourth in OPS. When he returned last season, he wasn’t that same player. He had trouble elevating the ball and his power declined. By the end of August, he described his knee as “terrible,” but played through it. He now says he’s completely healthy — the Braves even let him play in the World Baseball Classic — and we’re betting on him finding that power stroke again and returning as one of the sport’s elite all-around talents.
Season prediction: I’d love to be bold here and say 40-40 — he did steal 29 bases last year despite not being 100% — but let’s go with a 30-30 season and his third All-Star Game start (and fourth appearance). — Schoenfield
At the All-Star break last season, a case could have been made for Alvarez to win the AL MVP. Judge changed all of that, but the fact remains, Alvarez has become one of the most dangerous lefties in the game. He and Judge were the only two players in baseball last season with an OPS over 1.000. And now he has done that twice in his career — not an easy stat line to achieve even one time.
Alvarez isn’t a great outfielder, but he has improved over time. With Jose Abreu entrenched at first base — and needing some at-bats at DH — it’s possible Alvarez plays more in left field. But he’s not being paid for his defense. The former rookie of the year will certainly have multiple chances at winning his first MVP because of his offensive prowess after finishing third in 2022.
Season prediction: Alvarez will lead the league in hit by pitches and intentional walks. — Rogers
Guerrero was one of the more difficult players to assess: Is he the absolute basher of 2021 when he was the best hitter in baseball and finished second in the MVP voting? Or the mere masher of 2022 who dropped to 29th among qualified hitters in wRC+ (weighted runs created)? That level of production greatly affects his value. A first baseman who is the 29th-best hitter isn’t one of the top 20 players in the game.
Guerrero does present a high offensive floor, however, and few batters can match his combination of power (94th percentile in hard-hit rate) and contact ability (79th percentile in strikeout rate). He ended up chasing out of the zone more often last year, leading to more weak contact, especially on the ground. He’s only 24, so our panel predicts he’ll make the necessary adjustments.
Season prediction: I’m going with the middle ground here between his superlative 2021 season and 2022, so that gives us 40 home runs with a .293 average and over 100 ribbies. That should make him one of the top 10 hitters in the game. — Schoenfield
After putting together the worst season of his career in 2021, Lindor looked much more like himself in 2022, slashing .270/.339/.448 with 26 homers and 16 stolen bases while putting together a strong season defensively. Since he entered the league in 2015, Lindor has been the game’s best shortstop with a 42.0 fWAR, which is 8.0 WAR more than Xander Bogaerts, the second-most productive shortstop in the same time period. While we still haven’t seen the 30-homer shortstop Lindor was in Cleveland, he remains among the most impactful players in the game and someone who will be critical for New York’s success if the team hopes to live up to its massive payroll.
Season prediction: Now with three seasons in New York under his belt and fully comfortable in that setting, Lindor puts together his best season as a Met. The dynamic shortstop finds more of a power stroke and continues his reign of elite defense. — Lee
3B | Atlanta Braves
When Riley broke out with a .303/.367/.531 season in 2021, that sparkling line was underpinned by a .368 BABIP. So what would a season look like if that number returned to earth? It would look like Riley’s 2022 season in which he led the NL in total bases, made the All-Star team and finished sixth in MVP balloting.
After two seasons of this, there’s no doubt that Riley has become one of the game’s shining stars and is perhaps even a little underrated from an attention standpoint. He is a pure basher who ranks in the top five percentile in Statcast metrics like exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. He swings big to generate that power and has the strikeout and swing-and-miss rates to show it. Those are the last dominoes to fall before Riley really makes a push for MVP and the time is right — he’s just hitting the prime of his career.
Season prediction: Now at a lofty, established performance level, expect Riley to make additional marginal gains. Look for him to tack on 20-25 walks and for a few more of his doubles to clear the fence, allowing him to reach the 40-homer mark for the first time in his career. — Doolittle
SP | New York Yankees
The Yankees signed Cole to a nine-year, $324 million contract in December 2019 and — in the aggregate, at least — have received everything they could have hoped for in a staff ace pitching within the nation’s largest market. Cole finished fourth, second and ninth, respectively, in AL Cy Young Award voting from 2020 to 2022. During that time, he has ranked first in the AL in wins (36) and innings (455), fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.50), fifth in WHIP (1.02) and 19th in ERA (3.28). He’s in his early 30s now, but his fastball velocity has maintained itself in the upper 90s. He hasn’t been able to match the eye-popping strikeout rates of his Houston days, but he has come close.
Season prediction: Cole was helped by a stellar defense behind him and gave up more home runs than anybody in the AL last year. At 32, he’s still a legitimate ace; but he might be starting to fade in the conversation for the game’s best pitcher. Others might replace him in 2023. — Gonzalez
While the Boston front office had felt hesitant in the past to give out long-term contracts, Devers is the homegrown star entering 2023 with a 10-year, $313.5 million deal. The reason is simple: Boston views his bat as a generational talent and something that will age well as he enters his age-26 season in the big leagues. While Devers has shown a power stroke at the plate early in his career, his ability to hit the ball to all fields is what makes him one of the game’s biggest offensive threats, slashing .295/.358/.521 in 2022. While his defense still ranks average among third basemen, he made large strides last season by improving his range and consistency on throws to first base.
Season prediction: Devers will keep chugging along as one of the game’s most dynamic offensive hitters. He’ll continue to work hard on improving his defense, so another step forward could be possible. — Lee
C | Philadelphia Phillies
The best catcher in the game isn’t far off from being a top-20 player but it won’t be his defense he needs to improve on to make the leap. As much as he provides at a weak offensive position, Realmuto will probably have to produce a near .900 OPS season to jump into that top 20. His career high is .840, achieved in the shortened 2020 season. Again, a great number for a catcher but below the top hitters in the game. He finished seventh in MVP voting in 2022, a career year where he won the gold glove and silver slugger award. It’s why he’s on the verge of being one of the best 20 players in the game.
Season prediction: With the new rules in play and Bryce Harper out of the lineup for several months, the Phillies might run more — and that would include Realmuto, who stole 21 last season. In 2023, he’ll become just the third catcher in MLB History to steal 30 bases in a single season. — Rogers
SP | New York Mets
Verlander won a Cy Young Award as a 39-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery. That alone should be enough to crack the top 25 on this list. What Verlander did as a member of the Astros in 2022 should go down as one of the most impressive seasons in baseball history. He did so while striking out more than a batter per inning, throwing his fastball in the mid-90s and accumulating 175 innings, during which he boasted a major league-best 1.75 ERA. The list of power pitchers who have excelled into their 40s is predictably short, featuring the likes of Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. There’s no reason Verlander can’t join them.
Season prediction: There wasn’t really anything from 2022 that would indicate Verlander is anything but a top-shelf starting pitcher again in 2023. But this is still his reality: He’s 40 years old, coming off a season in which he pitched into November and accumulated nearly 200 innings when you count the playoffs. Expect some regression. — Gonzalez
Since the beginning of the 2020 season, only four pitchers have more bWAR than Burnes and only Cole has struck out more batters. While Burnes wasn’t quite as dominant last season as he was during his Cy Young campaign of 2021, he still managed to lead the NL with 243 strikeouts while topping 200 innings for the first time. He improved his third-time-through-the-order numbers and perhaps because of that, he worked deeper into games. Burnes’ homer rate more than doubled but some of that might have been some ill luck with his homers-per-flyball ratio. If that comes back in line and the workload stays as high, he could post his best season yet and push even farther up this list.
Season prediction: Burnes will be eligible for free agency after the 2024 season. Because of that, this will be a key campaign for his future earnings potential. He was terrific last season but his velocity was down a half-tick and he was hit hard more often. With a lot on line, look for Burnes to clean that up and once again figure prominently in NL Cy Young balloting. — Doolittle
Correa’s offseason adventure makes him one of the most intriguing players to watch in 2023. After all, the Twins were his default third choice. Everyone seems happy with the reunion, however, and the Twins end up getting an elite player at a discount — as long as the old ankle injury that scared off the Giants and Mets doesn’t prove problematic.
It’s hard to believe Correa is still just 28 years old. He remains in the prime of his career and shows the value of a player who hits — and hits for some power, at that — and plays good defense at a premium position: He has averaged 7.2 bWAR per 162 games in his career. His raw OPS last season was only the fifth highest of his career, but his adjusted OPS was the second highest. He has batted 600 times just twice in his career; if he can do that, he can be a top-20 player.
Season prediction: Correa plays 150 games for the first time since 2016 and sets a career high in home runs — and steals his first base since 2019. — Schoenfield
RF | San Diego Padres
We’re a society that tends to move on quickly, always so fast to focus our attention on what’s next. And that might especially be true for one Fernando Tatis Jr. “I think a lot of people are forgetting how special he is,” Tatis’ teammate, Jake Cronenworth, said in the days leading up to spring training.
It’d be understandable given the circumstances. But before missing the entire 2022 season — first with a wrist injury, then with a steroid suspension — Tatis was one of the most electrifying players in the sport, accumulating 81 home runs, 52 stolen bases and 13.2 FanGraphs WAR within his first 273 major league games. He’s only 24 and still perfectly capable of providing the most elite combination of power and speed, defense and overall baseball excellence. But he’s also coming off shoulder and wrist surgeries, a full year off and he’ll be transitioning from shortstop to right field.
Season prediction: People around the Padres expect an inspired, motivated, energetic Tatis in 2023, undoubtedly eager to get back to elite production after all the (self-imposed) negativity that surrounded him last year. Contending for an MVP might be unrealistic considering the shoulder and wrist surgeries and all the time off, but he’ll come close. And at times he’ll look like a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder. — Gonzalez
SP | Philadelphia Phillies
A stalwart during his eight-year career, Nola has made at least 32 starts in each of the past four full seasons. He even made 12 in the shortened 2020 campaign. That durability alone puts him among some of the best pitchers in the game. The 2022 regular season might have been his best, as he led all pitchers in strikeout-to-walk ratio, whiffing 235 batters while walking only 29.
He also finished fourth in Cy Young voting but didn’t perform well late in the playoffs. The first two rounds were great for Nola but his NLCS and World Series numbers weren’t very good — he gave up 14 runs in 13 innings. A repeat regular season with a solid postseason would elevate him to a top-20 player in the game, but right now, he’s on the outside looking in.
Season prediction: Austin Nola will join a rare group of hitters to homer off their brother when the Phillies and Padres face off this season. They opposed each other in the playoffs last year, with the elder brother going 1-for-2 off the younger one in the NLCS. — Rogers
SP | New York Mets
He’s now 38 years old but Mad Max is as dominant as ever, even if he has lost a little in fastball velocity relative to the rest of the league. Indeed, his 2.29 ERA in 2022 was a career low (although with 145⅓ innings, he failed to qualify for the ERA title for the first time since his rookie season) and his 169 ERA+ was the second best of his career.
His command, deep arsenal of five pitches and ability to keep batters guessing remains supreme — and you have to admire that he still loves to just rear back and challenge hitters at times with the old No. 1 down the middle. His strikeout rate ranked in the 89th percentile, his walk rate in the 95th percentile and his whiff rate in the 83rd percentile. He’s no longer a 220-inning pitcher, but if Scherzer goes back to his usual 30 starts, don’t rule out Cy Young contention.
Season prediction: There’s nothing in the metrics that suggest Scherzer is slowing down. The only seasons since 2013 he hasn’t finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting were 2020 and last season (and that was only because he missed some time). It’s hard to predict health, but let’s go with 200 K’s, an ERA under 3.00 and another top-five Cy Young finish. — Schoenfield
SS | San Diego Padres
The 30-year-old shortstop now joins a Padres team where he is expected to be an offensive focal point, alongside Machado, Soto and Tatis. Bogaerts solidified his place among the game’s best shortstops in a contract season, hitting .307/.377/.456 with 15 homers and a 5.7 bWAR. Since he entered the majors in 2013, he ranks second in fWAR among all shortstops, trailing just Lindor and ahead of Trea Turner and Correa. Bogaerts has also made large strides as a defender throughout the course of his career, qualifying as a Gold Glove finalist in 2022. Given his skill set and strong abilities as a hitter, expect his game to age well into his 30s.
Season prediction: Bogaerts’ power numbers go down a notch in the spacious Petco Park, but he’ll stay one of the game’s best contact hitters. He’ll be a consistent doubles threat for the Padres while also making defensive strides. — Lee
1B | New York Mets
Alonso topped the NL with a Mets-record 131 RBIs, tying Judge for most in the majors. OK, RBIs are more than a little team-dependent and according to the Bill James Handbook, Alonso led the majors with 308 RBI opportunities. Still, his 42.5% RBI rate ranked in the top 10 of the majors. In other words, he clears the bags. It’s not hard to understand why, since Alonso is a highly aggressive hitter who averages 45 homers per 162 games during his career.
The downside of that approach is that he chases too many pitches and given the care with which pitchers work him (he led the NL in intentional walks and among 130 qualified hitters, only eight saw a lower rate of pitches in the strike zone), that lack of selectivity is what stands in the way of him ranking with the game’s elite overall hitters.
Season prediction: Expect Alonso to hit around .267/.348/.518 with 40-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs, which is roughly an average of what he did over the past two seasons. While there are some obvious areas in which Alonso could improve, at 28 he is what he is. And for the Mets, that’s plenty good. — Doolittle
SP | Cleveland Guardians
The 2022 season brought with it an evolution for Bieber, the AL’s Cy Young Award winner in 2020. Bieber had seen the velocity on his four-seam fastball continually diminish, from 94 mph in 2020 to 93 mph in 2021 to 91 mph in 2022. But he has altered his pitch mix in order to combat it, beginning to use his slider more often than his curveball, and he has seen results. Bieber finished the 2022 season seventh in Cy Young voting, posting a 2.88 ERA and reaching precisely 200 innings. Alarm bells were ringing in Cleveland when Bieber got shelled by the Blue Jays on May 7, allowing seven runs with a fastball that barely cracked 90 mph. From that point forward, he posted the 10th-lowest ERA in the sport.
Season prediction: You probably wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Bieber’s strikeout rate has dropped over time, from 41.1% in 2020 to 33.1% in 2021 to 25% in 2022. But his walk rate last season, 4.6%, was barely more than half what it was the year before. Bieber is a different pitcher, but still a very effective one. Expect that to continue. — Gonzalez
Few prospects over the past decade — maybe none since Bryce Harper — reached the majors with as much fanfare as Franco when the Rays called him up in 2021 as a 20-year-old who oozed future batting champ with his sweet line-drive stroke and exquisite contact ability. No, he hasn’t hit .300 … not yet anyway (he just turned 22). After hitting .331 in his first 28 games to start the season in 2022, he battled some injuries that affected his production and eventually landed him on the IL. He returned in September to hit .322 with more walks than whiffs. With this ranking, we’re still buying into that .300 potential and ability to smoke lasers all over the park while playing a solid shortstop.
Season prediction: After hitting .288 in his 2021 rookie season and .277 last season, the projection systems see Franco in the .280 to .285 range. I’m going a lot higher: .322 and the AL batting title. — Schoenfield
SP | Atlanta Braves
Only an epic season by Miami’s Alcantara stood in the way of Fried landing his first NL Cy Young Award. Still, the lefty ace keeps inching his way to new heights with each passing season. He was on the mound more in 2022, with 30 starts and a career-high 185⅓ innings while slicing his walk rate and allowing fewer homers.
Fried’s consistency and dominance for the annually contending Braves has allowed him to go 52-20 since 2019, a .722 winning percentage. His 32 games over .500 during that span is matched only by the Yankees’ Cole. Fried’s career strikeout rate (8.8 per nine innings) is a touch below the game’s top starters in this high-strikeout era and if anything is unnecessarily keeping him out of the conversation around baseball’s top pitchers, that’s probably the reason. It’s not hard to argue that he should maybe rank higher on this list.
Season prediction: According to Statcast, Fried’s use of his changeup went from 2.2% in 2021 to 14.1% last season. Hitters hit just .173 with a .218 slugging percentage against that offering. Fried is a hard worker and intense competitor who continues to evolve his arsenal with experience. That he keeps getting better is no accident. If he’s able to do that again in 2023, and he finished second in the Cy Young voting in 2022, where would that leave him? Exactly. — Doolittle
SP | Philadelphia Phillies
Injuries have slowed Wheeler at various times of his career but when he’s healthy, he’s a borderline top-20 player. In fact, he hasn’t produced an ERA over 3.00 since 2019. Wheeler finished second in Cy Young Award voting in 2021 and probably would have been closer to the award last season if not for an arm ailment that sidelined him for several starts in 2022. He made 26 starts overall and dealt with some fatigue in the World Series. A repeat of that 2021 season, when he made 32 starts, would probably return Wheeler to top-20 status. His fastball/curveball combination is among the best — and so is Wheeler.
Season prediction: Wheeler will join Nola as the only teammates to throw 200 innings this season. — Rogers
SP | New York Yankees
There’s no doubt that when Rodon is healthy, he’s one of the best in the game. Over the past two seasons, he has lived up to the potential that made him a top-3 pick in the 2014 MLB draft out of NC State. With the Giants, he had 31 starts with a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while striking out 237 in 178 innings. The major question mark will be health, though. A forearm strain has already put him on the IL to start the 2023 season. Last year marked the first time in Rodon’s career that he made more than 30 starts in a season. Whenever he is on the mound, he will certainly show why he earned himself a six-year, $162 million deal, but the question is how many times he will actually toe the rubber.
Season prediction: When healthy, he takes the Yankees rotation to another level. What’s harder to predict is how many starts the lefty will actually make. If the Yankees make a deep run this postseason, Rodon will play a major role. — Lee
Baltimore needed Rutschman to live up to the hype as one of the top prospects in baseball and he exceeded all expectations, displaying a strong ability to get on base while providing some of the best defense in baseball behind the plate. In 113 games, Rustchman hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 homers and a 5.2 bWAR, placing him second in all of baseball behind Realmuto. If the Orioles expect to take another step forward, they will need Rutschman to continue looking like one of the best catchers in the sport.
Season prediction: Rutschman will keep building on his status as one of the game’s best defensive catchers while taking a step forward offensively as he continues adjusting to big league pitching. Any increased production will make him among the game’s most valuable players. — Lee
SP | Tampa Bay Rays
There was perhaps no more dominant pitcher in last year’s first half than McClanahan. Armed with a devastating four-pitch mix, McClanahan posted a 1.71 ERA in 110⅔ innings, striking out 147 batters while walking only 19 and starting the All-Star Game. But the second half featured a non-serious shoulder injury and mediocre results, including four starts in which he gave up more than three runs and didn’t get into the sixth inning. So McClanahan went about working on his body this offseason. He stretched more diligently and improved his diet, and the Rays believe the 25-year-old right-hander can be even better in 2023. There’s no reason why his first-half success can’t extend for a full season. The stuff is there.
Season prediction: McClanahan will rise to another level in 2023 and contend for the AL Cy Young Award, displaying some of the best stuff in the sport and tapping into more consistency throughout the year. — Gonzalez
SP | Seattle Mariners
During Castillo’s years with the Cincinnati Reds, there were frustrating bouts of inconsistency and control lapses, though he was an All-Star in 2019 and then again in 2022 before his trade to the Mariners. He seemed to put everything together last season, going 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career.
It took less than two months for the Mariners to love what they saw and sign him to a five-year, $108 extension and then give him the ball for the franchise’s first playoff game in 22 years. He promptly dominated the Blue Jays with 7⅓ scoreless innings. He throws 97 with a great changeup and wipeout slider, and with a full year at T-Mobile Park — it must feel like the Columbia River Gorge after all those years in Cincinnati — he’s primed for his best season yet.
Season prediction: Castillo has won just 16 games the past two seasons combined. He’s going to win 16 in 2023 and pick up some down-ballot Cy Young votes for the first time in his career. — Schoenfield
RF | Houston Astros
Tucker is slowly advancing up the list of most dangerous lefties in the game, in part because of his ability to hit lefties. His career .808 OPS against left-handed pitching isn’t all that different from his .853 one vs. righties. Of course, that was all achieved with the shift in place. Without it, Tucker’s 2023 batting average should go up after hitting .257 in 2022.
Tucker just keeps getting better. He has an 11 bWAR combined over the past two seasons, finishing 20th in MVP voting in 2021 and then 15th in 2022 to go along with his first All-Star appearance and first Gold Glove for his outfield defense. More of the same will keep Tucker rising in the ratings. It’s not impossible for him to be a top-20 player going into 2024. He has the talent.
Season prediction: Tucker takes another leap, repeating as Gold Glove winner while hitting 35-plus home runs with a batting average at least 20 points higher than his 2022 mark. — Rogers
3B | Houston Astros
When we last ran MLB rank in 2021, Bregman was a top-15 fixture. He was sixth in 2019, 12th in 2020 and 13th in 2021. But after three solid seasons that were well off his peak in 2018-2019, he’s landed here. It seems about right given what his new level of play seems to be after three years and over 1,200 plate appearances. Peak Bregman was the full package — elite power, lots of walks, elite run run production, even some steals. The new version has similar strike-zone mastery and exit velocities but the BABIP results just haven’t been the same. Though he hits righty, the shift has been a bane for Bregman and perhaps its departure will be a boost.
Season prediction: While Bregman might not have any more 40-homer seasons in him, it would be surprising if there isn’t another MVP-level season or two in his future. The Astros will be fine either way: Houston has advanced at least to the ALCS in all six seasons since Bregman became a regular. — Doolittle
If you want a poster boy for how the elimination of the shift might help some hitters, Seager is your guy. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Seager hit .112 on ground balls and short line drives hit between first and second base in 2022. As a result, Seager, who hit .297 in seven seasons with the Dodgers, saw his average plummet to .245 in his first year with the Rangers. BIS estimates Seager would have gained 29 additional hits under 2023 rules — and his average would thus climb to .293. Look for better numbers from Seager with the new rules and perhaps an even higher ranking in 2024 as he tops 30 home runs again and hits much closer to .300.
Season prediction: Look for better numbers from Seager with the new rules and perhaps an even higher ranking in 2024 as he tops 30 home runs again and hits much closer to .300. — Schoenfield
CF | Atlanta Braves
No young player had as meteoric a rise in 2022 as Harris. While he was a consensus top 100 prospect entering the season, his highest ranking was ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel at No. 38 and he had played all of 2021 in High-A. It looked like he would spend the season at Double-A Mississippi.
Nobody expected this: just 43 games in Double-A, a rushed promotion to the majors when the Braves needed a center fielder, a sudden development in his power and, frankly, emerging as one of the best players in the league over the final four months. He finished at .297/.339/.514 with 19 home runs, 20 stolen bases, excellent defense and a nice Rookie of the Year trophy. Some expect pitchers to figure out how to exploit his aggressive approach, but Harris can flat hit. Imagine what will happen if he improves his plate discipline.
Season prediction: If there’s a Michael Harris fan club, sign me up. The computers forecast regression, but I’m predicting more of the same: Let’s go with a 30-30 season, a trip to the All-Star Game and a Gold Glove. — Schoenfield
SP | Houston Astros
With three wins in three starts and just two runs allowed over 19⅓ innings in the ALCS and World Series, Valdez is a big reason why the Astros are the reigning champions. He really came into his own in 2022, leading the AL in innings, while completing three games and winning 17, all while putting up an ERA+ of 137. For all of that, Valdez finished fifth in the AL Cy Young balloting and made his first All-Star team.
Valdez didn’t do much differently last season in terms of arsenal, he was just a better, more precise pitcher who attacked the bottom of the strike zone, rarely missed in the middle of the plate and routinely put away hitters with his outstanding curveball. All Valdez really has to do to move up the rankings from here is to do it all over again. This time, he’ll get a chance to show his stuff as the ace of the Astros’ rotation now that Verlander has moved on.
Season prediction: Valdez sat out the WBC rather than pitching for the Dominican Republic after his jump in regular-season innings was followed by the heavy load he carried in October. The Astros might not overwork him early in the season, but beyond that, there is no reason to think that Valdez will fall off from last season’s form. Expect more of what we saw in 2022. — Doolittle
Cease needs more exposure. He nearly became one of those rare pitchers to miss out on the All-Star team but win the Cy Young award in the same season (he ended up finishing second in Cy Young voting to Verlander last year). Playing for the underachieving White Sox didn’t help matters. It’s partly why he’s not in the top 20 despite coming off a dominant 2022 campaign.
Cease has one of the most devastating sliders in the game, which led him to strike out an AL-best 227 batters last season. But he also walked the most in the AL, 78, though not many of those runners came back to haunt him considering his 2.20 ERA for the year. A reduction in walks while keeping his other numbers intact will continue to open eyes around the league for Cease.
Season prediction: Cease’s batting average against on balls in play has fluctuated greatly throughout his career. He’s due for a higher one in 2023, which could cause his ERA to rise. He won’t repeat the 2.20 mark in 2022 — it’ll be closer to 3.00 this year. — Rogers
SP | Texas Rangers
Nobody doubts that deGrom is one of the best pitchers of his generation, but his health remains a concern. DeGrom made 26 total starts across 2021 and 2022. While he still showed the stuff that made him one of the most feared pitchers in the entire sport, the 34-year-old righty took a step back in terms of his product, posting a 3.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 64⅓ innings pitched. How deGrom ages as he heads into the back half of his 30s will play a monumental role in the success of Texas in 2023 and beyond.
Season prediction: When he’s healthy, deGrom remains a nightmare for hitters, but this availability remains the biggest question. The righty has not thrown more than 20 games per season since 2019 (including the shortened 2020 season), and he is not getting any younger. — Lee
You rarely hear on-base percentage quoted in regards to pitchers, but Gallen was the anti-OBP hurler in 2022. He led the NL in WHIP and hits allowed per nine innings while holding opponents to a measly .252 OBP. He also sliced his home run rate in half and sliced more than a walk per nine innings from his 2021 season.
The end result was a new pitching star rising in the desert as Gallen posted a 2.54 ERA over 185 innings and finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting. He mostly ditched his slider last season and developed a four-pitch arsenal built off a wickedly effective, high-spin four-seamer and the metrics of all of his offerings were excellent. He does this without elite raw velocity, though he did add a tick of zip in 2022. At 27, he’s just getting rolling.
Season prediction: Gallen’s .237 BABIP will be hard to repeat but his career mark (.264) is well below last season’s MLB average (.293), so he has plenty of room to allow for a little regression. Even if Gallen’s ERA and WHIP rise because of a higher BABIP, don’t despair, because he’s a complete pitcher who should remain one of the NL’s top hurlers. — Doolittle
SP | Los Angeles Dodgers
After years of innings restrictions and occasional bullpen assignments, the Dodgers finally let Urias ride as a full-time, no-questions-asked starting pitcher in 2021 and watched him instantly become one of the game’s best. Urias led the majors with 20 wins in 2021 and led the NL with a 2.16 ERA and a 194 ERA+ in 2022. If not for the incredible dominance of Alcantara, he could have won the Cy Young. And yet, Urias finished third in the voting. He is criminally underrated, partly because he plays on the West Coast and partly because he doesn’t light up a radar gun like some of his peers. But few have better command. And when he becomes a free agent next offseason, few will be more coveted.
Season prediction: Urias’ success as a pitcher continues to trend in the right direction, and the 2023 season, his last one before free agency, could be his biggest one yet. If he remains healthy, expect him to make his first All-Star team — yeah, that’s right, he hasn’t made one yet — and vie for the Cy Young once more.
At times it feels as if Urias has been in the big leagues for a long time, but he’s only 26 and has accumulated less than 600 career regular-season innings. There’s plenty left to tap into. — Gonzalez
C | Los Angeles Dodgers
Smith has accumulated 9.7 fWAR since settling in as a regular behind the plate in 2020, a total surpassed by only two catchers — Realmuto and Sean Murphy. At 27 years old, Smith has established himself as one of the game’s best at his position, particularly on the strength of his bat. Smith has a .261/.356/.501 slash line in nearly 1,500 career major league plate appearances, even more impressive when considering the physical demands of his position. He slugs, but he is also patient. Smith boasted the 14th-lowest chase rate in the majors last year at 21.2%.
Season prediction: Smith will be more important to the Dodgers’ lineup than ever, with Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger gone and Max Muncy and Chris Taylor coming off down seasons. He’s currently slated to hit third, right behind Freeman. Expect him to DH more often this season, given the presence of Austin Barnes and top prospect Diego Cartaya. The Dodgers need his bat in the lineup as often as possible. And this could be Smith’s best year from a run-production standpoint. — Gonzalez
2B | Cleveland Guardians
The 24-year-old second baseman put together a breakout season in 2022, hitting .297/.371/.466 with a 7.2 bWAR. Gimenez’s defense catapulted him into one of the game’s more valuable players, but there are some questions about whether the Guardians’ infielder can repeat the success given the 40-point differential in his expected batting average (.257) and actual average (.297). While his 17 homers last season look like an outlier compared to his career numbers, expect him to make an impact on the basepaths after stealing 20 bases in 2022.
Season prediction: Gimenez will still be an above-average hitter but expect his power numbers to take a step back while his production equalizes with the expected sabermetric numbers given his contact rate and exit velocity. — Lee
SS | Toronto Blue Jays
In totality, Bichette’s 2022 season — .290/.333/.469 slash line, 24 home runs, 13 stolen bases and the AL lead in hits for a second straight year — was a profound success. But the 25-year-old shortstop navigated his fair share of peaks and valleys offensively and once again struggled with errors defensively. Bichette’s 47 errors trail only Javier Baez for the most among shortstops since the start of 2021. But that’s the kind of thing that tends to get cleaned up as a player matures. So do pronounced highs and lows. Bichette showed down the stretch what kind of premier talent he is, while OPS’ing 1.105 after the start of September.
Season prediction: Bichette probably won’t OPS above 1.000 for a full season, but he certainly has the talent to do so. He is a superstar navigating a portion of his career when players typically are still getting significantly better. FanGraphs projects a 4.4 WAR from him this season. If he’s healthy, his 2023 WAR should start at least with a 6.0. — Gonzalez
SP | Atlanta Braves
It was quite a year for Strider, who started the season in the Atlanta bullpen, soared once he hit the rotation, nearly won the NL Rookie of the Year award and capped it all by signing a six-year, $75 million extension. How was your 2022?
Strider emerged as one of baseball’s most dominant young pitchers, flashing a fastball that averages 98 miles per hour and a strikeout rate (13.8 per nine innings) that looks like a typo. The only downside for him was a late-season oblique injury that might have cost him NL rookie honors (won by teammate Harris) and limited his contribution to Atlanta’s playoff effort. Strider is mostly a two-pitch pitcher at this point, though he’ll sprinkle in a changeup against lefties, so it’s raw power that is currently earning him his bread. Obviously the Braves have seen more than enough to believe he can build off his dazzling rookie campaign.
Season prediction: Strider’s stuff is so overpowering that for now, it’s all he needs to get through an order a couple of times. To become a bedrock starter who can sometimes work deep, he’ll need more than two pitches. His spring work didn’t suggest he has that, so for now, expect more sharp, dominant outings. — Doolittle
SP | Toronto Blue Jays
Manoah is clearly a pitcher getting better with every season. He dropped his ERA by a run from 2021 to 2022 and increased his innings pitched by 85. He’s emerged as the Blue Jays’ ace, though his one postseason start (last year) wasn’t a good one. Still, Manoah is likely to be a Cy Young candidate again as he continues to mature. His sweeping slider is effective against both righties and lefties, as hitters have a hard time producing hard contact and slugging off of him. Players slugged .314 against him in his first two seasons — and that number alone makes him worthy of his position in the rankings.
Season prediction: Manoah puts it all together in 2023 and wins his first Cy Young award while surpassing 200 innings pitched for the first time in his career. — Rogers
SS | Houston Astros
His strong rookie season and World Series MVP award helped Astros fans quickly move past the departure of Correa. Peña lived up to his reputation as a strong fielder, but he also displayed more power than expected, hitting 22 homers in 136 games with a .253/.289/.426 batting line. There’s certainly room for growth with the young shortstop, but he ranked alongside Trea Turner and Ha-Seong Kim in terms of their impacts on the field, hovering around a 4.8-4.9 bWAR.
Season prediction: Peña takes a step forward with his batting average while maintaining his elite glove, solidifying himself as one of the game’s most valuable shortstops. — Lee
1B | Atlanta Braves
Every generation needs that big, slugging lefty first baseman who swats impressive home runs and swings from his heels with absolutely no remorse. Olson wasn’t quite as good in his first season with the Braves as he was with the Oakland Athletics in 2021 — due to a higher strikeout rate that cut into his batting average — but still belted 78 extra-base hits and drove in 103 runs. He showed in 2021 that he can be more than a “Three True Outcomes” slugger, although that’s what he became in the second half of 2022, when his average fell to .219 and his doubles rate fell way off. We’ve seen him play at an All-Star, top-10 MVP level, but there’s enough inconsistency here to keep him out of the top 50.
Season prediction: So far, his low strikeout rate in 2021 looks like a career outlier as his swing-and-miss rate was much higher against fastballs in 2022. I’d bet on a batting average closer to .240 again as opposed to the .271 mark in 2021, but in this Braves’ lineup, he’s a good bet to once again crack 100 RBIs with his 30-homer power. — Schoenfield
There’s a reason Swanson signed for $177 million with the Cubs during the offseason: He’s a really good player. There’s also a reason it was way less than what three other star shortstops signed for. Swanson is good, especially on defense, but he has yet to prove offensive consistency. His home run totals have increased over the years, but so have his strikeout numbers. Even he admits he needs to find the right balance between contact and power.
The Cubs are also paying for leadership. Swanson is known for wanting one thing out of his baseball life: to win. He did that in Atlanta, and now he’ll pave the way for a new roster of Cubs trying to find their way back to the postseason.
Season prediction: There might be some early struggles as Swanson tries to live up to his big contract — it happens all the time — but he should find his power stroke to left field once the summer hits Wrigley. Thirty home runs is not out of the question — but neither is 150 strikeouts (again). — Rogers
SP | Milwaukee Brewers
Woodruff has been one of the game’s most consistent starters over the last four seasons, a span in which his per-inning production has been truly elite. At 6’4″ and 244 lbs., Woodruff has the look of a classic top-of-the-rotation starter. He has the repertoire and stuff to dominate consistently and enough diversity in his offerings to remain effective deep into games. And yet Woodruff’s career high in innings as he enters his age-30 season is 179⅓. Injuries have usually diverted his run to the top ranks of big league starters, though arm injuries, strangely enough, haven’t been the issue. As such, it feels like his career season is still in his future.
Season prediction: Like co-ace teammate Burnes, Woodruff has not been extended by the Brewers and has one more season of arbitration eligibility before he hits free agency. Over the second half of last season, Woodruff was as good as any pitcher in the game. If the intersection of momentum and motivation means anything, the portents for 2023 are lined up in his favor. — Doolittle
CF | Baltimore Orioles
Mullins’ offensive numbers took a slight dip from 2021 to 2022, with his OPS going from .878 to .721. He walked less, didn’t slug nearly as much and produced slightly fewer line drives. But he also produced elite center-field defense, contributing nine outs above average, and added 34 stolen bases. In other words: He hit enough to still be considered one of the sport’s best all-around players at his position. His 9.3 fWAR over the last two years ranks fifth among outfielders, topped only by Judge, Soto, Betts and Alvarez. That’s pretty good company.
Season prediction: Mullins isn’t an elite exit-velocity guy, and his numbers will often be susceptible to batted-ball luck. Is he the hitter of 2021 or 2022? Something in the middle is probably a safe bet, though his 2022 drop in barrel percentage should warrant some concern. He should still be young enough (28) to bring all the other speed-related elements that make him stand out. — Gonzalez
2B | New York Mets
McNeil put together one of the best seasons of his career in 2022, hitting .326/.382/.454 with nine homers, winning the batting title and posting a career-high 5.7 bWAR. The Mets rewarded his success with a new four-year, $50 million contract, locking up a key member of New York’s core lineup. The second baseman is one of the best contact hitters in the sport, striking out just 242 times in 2,039 career plate appearances, bested by just nine players with at least 1,000 plate appearances since his debut in 2018. His versatility continues to be an asset as well, with 100 games at second base and 46 in the outfield in 2022.
Season prediction: McNeil’s game figures to age well — he turns 31 in April — given his reliance on contact over power. While it’s unfair to expect him to win the batting title again in 2023, he has just one season in the big leagues where he has hit below .300, and the Mets expect him to be a lineup catalyst for a group hoping to compete for the World Series. — Lee
RF/DH | Philadelphia Phillies
It doesn’t take a baseball expert to understand why Harper is where he is on the list, as he’ll be out more than half the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. His return will certainly boost the Phillies’ chances, and he’ll undoubtedly continue as one of the most feared hitters in the game. But for the rankings, availability is as important as productivity, so for now Harper is on the outside of the top 50 — though, he easily could be in a different place going into next season.
Season prediction: Harper returns with a bang in late July but struggles to find his footing. He’ll be a .230 hitter while hitting 12 home runs in the second half. — Rogers
RP | Cleveland Guardians
In the original incarnation of our rankings, there were but two relievers so dominant that they earned a spot on the list. Edwin Diaz then suffered that devastating knee injury in the WCS, so now Clase, who won last year’s Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year award, stands alone as baseball’s top fireman entering the season. He’s earned that status by becoming one of the rarest of baseball phenomenons: The consistent reliever.
In his case, Clase isn’t just consistent — he’s consistently dominant. Over the last two seasons, Clase has a surreal 1.33 ERA over 142⅓ innings. In 2022, he saved 42 games in 46 chances and earned wins in two of the games in which he blew the save. He does this with a cutter-slider combination so unhittable that to describe it as “nasty” hardly seems sufficient. The cutter in particular is almost — dare we say? — Rivera-esque.
Season prediction: There is zero reason to think that Clase’s game is going to tail off any time soon, especially when a “bad” season for him at this point would be a two-something ERA. — Doolittle
CF | Miami Marlins
He’s on the cover of “MLB The Show” video game, he was named to his first All-Star Game in 2022 and he popularized the ice cream-themed glove. Now, Chisholm has to stay healthy after missing the second half with a stress fracture in his lower back and adjust to a new position as the Marlins move him from second base to center field. To his credit, it was Chisholm who went to the Marlins with the idea, so he has embraced the change with enthusiasm. There’s no doubting the massive upside here after he hit 14 home runs with 45 RBIs and slugged .535 in 60 games. Those numbers over 150 games: 35 home runs and 112 RBIs. That sounds like an All-Star center fielder.
Season prediction: Hey, don’t dismiss that 35-homer potential. He’s averaged 27 per 162 games in his short career, and he’s just 25 with only 205 career games. With his tools, there’s still a chance he could explode if everything comes together. I’ll go 30 home runs and 25 steals, and if he can cut down on the K’s, he has superstar potential. — Schoenfield
SS | Chicago White Sox
There was a time when Anderson would have ranked higher on the list, since he has a batting title under his belt. But injuries zapped some of his ability last season and though he hit over .300 for the fourth consecutive year, it came in only 79 games. A healthy, available Anderson may move him back up the rankings.
Meanwhile, playing in the WBC this spring can only help raise his game and potentially his leadership. During the tournament, Trout said that Anderson had the best opposite field swing in the game. That’s some high praise. If he’s on the field the entire season, he may win another batting title yet.
Season prediction: Anderson hits over .320 while he and Elvis Andrus make a surprisingly good double play combination. Anderson might even get some time at second base, where he shined during the WBC. — Rogers
In four months, Reynolds — one of few baseball players to publicly request a trade — is expected to be one of the most coveted players from executives looking to solidify their teams for the stretch run. Toss aside a fan-less shortened 2020 season, and he has been about as productive as they come, slashing .292/.371/.496 in his three full major league seasons. The Pirates have expressed a desire to keep Reynolds long term, but there are no indications that the two sides are close on an extension. He is coming off a sluggish — by his standards — 2022 season, one that saw his OPS drop by more than 100 points and his defensive metrics fall off even more dramatically. But several GMs would undoubtedly line up to trade for him nonetheless.
Season prediction: Reynolds’ strikeouts picked up and his walks declined in 2022, which is usually a troubling sign. He chased more often, particularly against fastballs. He saw more high fastballs last year, and he struggled mightily against them, slashing .074/.133/.185. Reynolds won’t get back to his 2021 self until he makes that adjustment. — Gonzalez
OF | Toronto Blue Jays
Springer remains a top-of-the-lineup catalyst with his blend of power, speed and patience. Among 64 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances from the lead-off spot last season, Springer ranked in the top five in hits, runs, homers and RBIs, while landing at 14th in OPS. He still plays the game with panache via his big swings at the plate and daring dives on the basepaths.
Still, after finishing in the top 40 of the last five editions of these rankings, Springer fell down the pecking order mostly because he just can’t stay on the field enough. He hasn’t played in more than 140 games since 2018 and made it into just 133 contests last season for Toronto. During his two seasons with the Blue Jays, Springer has hit the IL with an oblique strain, a strained quadriceps, a sprained knee and an inflamed elbow. This last malady resulted in surgery last fall to remove bone spurs.
Season prediction: Now 33, Springer’s playing time has to be carefully managed, especially as it seems unlikely that the abandon with which he has always played is going to disappear. The injuries will come, and rest will be needed. That’s all fine for the Blue Jays if Springer is right when October comes around and he gets another shot to show why he’s one of the great postseason players of his generation. — Doolittle
CF | Minnesota Twins
We all know the story. Over the past four seasons, Buxton has hit .258/.316/.558 while playing Willie Mays defense in center field. He has averaged an incredible 8.3 WAR per 650 plate appearances since 2019 — except that’s more PAs than he had in 2021 and 2022 combined. Of his 28 home runs in 2022, 11 of them went more than 425 feet, including two over 450. The power/defense combo is so impressive that if he could play 130 games, he’d be one of the best players in baseball with top-15 overall potential. But he’s now 29 and played 100 games just once in his career. There have been players who had careers ruined or shortened with injuries, but Buxton’s career is turning into a weird, one-of-a-kind “what if?”
Season prediction: Yeah, right — you may as well ask me to make my stock picks for the next 12 months or predict the weather for the first game of the World Series. There’s 40-homer power here if he stays healthy, but I wouldn’t count on that. — Schoenfield
2B | Texas Rangers
After a very slow start for his new team in 2022, Semien brought the lumber. All but one of his 26 home runs was hit after June 1. That kind of volatility might be expected for a player joining a new organization with a big contract. Semien isn’t going to go up the rankings as he enters his mid-30’s, but that doesn’t mean he has to go down either. He should age well playing second base after giving up on shortstop in signing with Texas a year ago. His power at that position makes him special, though he’s not likely to repeat his 2021 performance, when he hit 45 home runs for Toronto.
Season prediction: Semien’s power numbers will continue to decrease playing in pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field. He’ll hit under 20 home runs in a full season for the first time since 2018. — Rogers
C | Atlanta Braves
As much as anything, the Braves seem to believe in certainty when it comes to their long-term design. Find a young player you like and keep that player for as long as you can in an exchange of security (for the player) and team-friendly terms. And so Murphy becomes the latest example of that design after Atlanta acquired him in a hot stove trade and almost immediately inked him to a six-year, $73 million extension to become Atlanta’s backstop now and for the foreseeable future.
This ranking, which is well-deserved, illustrates why the Braves have such faith in a player who has yet to play a regular season inning for them. Murphy is one of the game’s top two-way backstops who hits for power, draws walks, handles his position so well that he was the AL’s Gold Glove catcher in 2021 and even has some postseason experience. He’s also durable and hits well enough that he can help out frequently at DH on days he isn’t catching.
Season prediction: The only catchers to have won a Gold Glove in both leagues are Bob Boone and Tony Pena. Supplanting Realmuto in the NL won’t be easy for Murphy, but he’s got a chance to join the list. He frames well and with an elite pop time, his ability to gun down would-be base thieves could be accentuated under the new rules. — Doolittle
2B | Houston Astros
As with Harper, Altuve would have ranked a lot higher, but the broken thumb he suffered in the World Baseball Classic will keep him sidelined indefinitely and well into the season. When Altuve scuffled through a rough COVID-shortened 2020 season, it appeared Father Time might have been starting his victory lap, even if it was just a 48-game sample. Altuve has proven every skeptic wrong throughout his career and did so again. The 2022 season was one of his best, as he matched his MVP year of 2017 with a 160 OPS+ and finished fifth in the AL MVP voting.
Even without the injury, Altuve was a good bet to regress, at least a little. He turns 33 in May, and despite launching 39 doubles and 28 home runs last season, his hard-hit rate was the lowest of his career. That’s cause for concern, although he doesn’t swing and miss much, and he did show sudden growth in his plate discipline, with big improvements in chase rate and walk rate. If that holds, he’ll continue to age well.
Season prediction: Altuve’s .300 batting average last year was 31 points higher than his expected batting average going into the season. We don’t know how the injury will ultimately affect his power, but his launch angle and ability to pull everything is ideal for home runs. I think the average takes a dip back into the .270 range that it was in 2021. — Schoenfield
CF | New York Mets
Nimmo had the best season of his career in 2022, earning him an eight-year, $162 million contract to stay in New York. The 29-year-old outfielder put together a strong offensive season, hitting .274/.367/.433 with 16 homers while continuing to make big strides as a defensive player. He represents one of the backbones of the Mets’ lineup as one of their most consistent producers. As important as his production is, so is his leadership in the clubhouse as a tone-setter — he brings energy to Citi Field on a daily basis.
Season prediction: Nimmo will continue to be a catalyst near the top of the lineup while providing solid outfield defense. The Mets don’t need him to be anything more than what he’s been throughout the last few seasons: solid and dependable. — Lee
What follows is a partial list of players who appeared in at least 120 games in their age-22 season or younger and put up less than 2.3 fWAR: Jimmy Rollins, Altuve, Arenado, Freeman, Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano, Bogaerts. And that’s just dating back to 2000. So, don’t ring the alarm bells on Witt just yet. Thriving in the major leagues at that age is exceedingly difficult. Witt’s rookie season — 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases, but also a .254/.294/.428 slash line and more than four times as many strikeouts as walks — was a disappointment when considering the hype that surrounded him. But it doesn’t mean he won’t be a star. It didn’t for any of those other names.
Season prediction: The Royals knew Witt wouldn’t play much in the WBC, but they wanted him to experience that environment. They thought it could speed up his development and turn him into a better player. It’ll work. Witt will take a big leap in 2023 and vie for the All-Star team. — Gonzalez
SP | Houston Astros
Javier keeps inching his way towards a monster season. He appeared as a starter and reliever both in last year’s regular season and postseason. That’s how valuable he was to the Astros’ run to a title. This year, he may find his way to the top of the Astros’ rotation or at least right behind Valdez. His fastball has so much life on it, he should blow past 200 strikeouts in 2023. As is, he had 194 in 148 innings last season, good for an eye-popping 33.2% strikeout rate. One of every three batters went down by strikeout against Javier. He could be a Cy Young candidate if those numbers continue over the course of 32 starts.
Season prediction: If healthy, Javier will lead the league in K’s with over 250. — Rogers
He was my pick for NL Cy Young winner in 2022, and while that didn’t happen, he proved his terrific run down the stretch in 2021 was no fluke as he went 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA and just 11 home runs allowed in 192⅓ innings. Webb is the antithesis of modern pitchers: He throws a low-spin sinking 91-mph fastball that produces grounders instead of strikeouts, and he gets batters to chase his slider and changeup. We’ll see if the shift ban hurts him more than other pitchers, but I expect his throwback style, pitch efficiency and command will lead to another strong season.
Season prediction: More of the same. He’s had two back-to-back excellent seasons, and while I’m a little worried about the Giants’ defense at second base without the shift, I’m looking for an ERA around 3.00 with close to 200 innings once again. — Schoenfield
3B | Baltimore Orioles
How does a player with all of 132 plate appearances and a .259 batting average end up in our top 100? Faith. Faith in the prospect hype and faith in the flashes of brilliance we saw from him during his 2022 debut as a proof of concept. As Henderson retains rookie status, he’s still eligible in the prospect rankings and thus landed the coveted top spot in this year’s edition of Kylie McDaniel’s Top 100. He’s got power, defense, a strong arm, the speed to steal 20 bases or more and minor-league OBPs that suggest an advanced approach at the plate. Along with fellow phenom Rutschman — last year’s top prospect — Henderson is at the vanguard of what looks like a dawning era of contention in Baltimore.
Season prediction: Henderson enters the season as a leading AL Rookie of the Year candidate. At the same time, his minor-league line jumped from a .258 average and .826 OPS in 2021 to .297 and .946 a season ago. Some regression wouldn’t be a shock, both because of that leap and because development doesn’t usually happen in a linear fashion. And yet he’s so good, he might be the ROY anyway. — Doolittle
OF | Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll has played in only 32 major league games and already looks like one of the most exciting players in the sport. He can hit for average, slug, provide elite defense and run with the best of them — and he brings that level of enthusiasm every time he plays. The COVID-19 pandemic wiped out minor league baseball in 2020 and shoulder surgery robbed him of most of 2021, but Carroll looked like a man who hadn’t missed a beat in 2022. In what amounted to his first full season of professional baseball, Carroll scorched through Double-A and Triple-A, OPS’ing 1.036 with 24 home runs and 31 stolen bases in only 442 plate appearances. The D-backs had no choice but to call him up late in the season, and Carroll accumulated 1.4 fWAR in about a month. He’ll maintain rookie eligibility for 2023 and should be a clear favorite for ROY.
Season prediction: Carroll will win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and turn a lot of heads in 2023, helping the D-backs make a surprising run for a playoff spot. — Gonzalez
2B | Atlanta Braves
Last year was a frustrating one for Albies, as he played just 64 games because of a broken left foot and broken right pinky, and his offense was down when he did play. At his best, he generates surprising power from his small frame, hitting 30 home runs and ranking fifth in the majors in extra-base hits in 2021 (when he also drove in 106 runs) and tied for 15th in 2019. Albies has his mind set on a big season … very big: “I’ll take 30-30,” he told The Athletic, referring to 30 home runs and 30 steals (his career high is 20). “But my goal is to go 40-40.” The Braves will happily take 150 — as in 150 games played.
Season prediction: I’m a little concerned here even though Albies is just 26. He’s been injured in two of the past three seasons, and his plate discipline hasn’t gotten any better, despite the Braves’ best efforts (and, in fact, he had a career-worst chase rate last season). Still, he has a knack for pounding out those extra-base hits. I’ll go .250 with 25 home runs and 35 doubles — a little below what we saw in the rabbit ball years of 2019 and 2021. — Schoenfield
SP | New York Yankees
There’s a reason why Nasty Nestor emerged as a fan favorite during the 2022 season. The crafty lefty put together a breakout 2022 campaign, posting a 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 28 starts en route to making his first All-Star team. In a year where Cole was inconsistent, Cortes proved to be one of the team’s most reliable performers. The Yankees were cognizant of not overusing him last season — he had never pitched more than 93 innings in the big leagues — so with a full offseason under his belt and a secure rotation spot, Cortes could take another step forward in 2023.
Season prediction: Cortes will keep proving there’s a way to succeed as a starter in the big leagues without top-tier velocity. He’ll need to make sure his command remains on point, but the creative mix of pitches, arm slots and windup movements makes him a dynamic pitcher for the Yankees’ rotation. — Lee
SP | Cleveland Guardians
By trying to do a little less in 2021, McKenzie accomplished a whole lot more in 2022. His strikeout rate dropped from 27.5% to 25.6% of opposing batters, but he more than offset that dip by slicing his walk rate and managing his effort to work deeper into games. He averaged 4.8 innings per start in 2021 but that figure soared to 6.3 last season as he finished with 191⅓ innings pitched and doubled his quality start count. McKenzie leaned less frequently on his fastball, even though he still has just a three-pitch mix. Even without a deep arsenal, McKenzie’s numbers remain strong even as he gets into the third time through an opposing lineup.
Season prediction: From here, it’s a matter of fine tuning the command. While McKenzie was much better at attacking the strike zone last season, he did go through spates where he caught the middle of the plate too often, and his homer rate would spike. Given his rate of improvement so far, the Guardians can look to further gains in this area. — Doolittle
SP | Minnesota Twins
It will be interesting to see how a former Marlins pitcher performs knowing he’ll have more offense backing him. Lopez should get a boost from playing with the Twins over the offensively-challenged Marlins. He put together a solid season in 2022, but there’s room to grow. The biggest step in his game last season was simply making all 32 starts, cementing him as a mid-rotation guy in the big leagues. Righties hit .218 off him last season, fifth lowest in the NL. His cutter is becoming an often-used pitch and his change-up is already really good.
Season prediction: Lopez surpasses 200 innings for the first time in his career while getting over five runs of support per game. — Rogers
SP | San Diego Padres
Some players struggle with the pressures of starring for their hometown team. Musgrove has embraced it, using it as motivation to elevate himself to a higher level. The 30-year-old right-hander has posted a 3.06 ERA and accumulated 362⅓ innings in his first two years with the Padres, while helping to front the rotation of a star-studded team with grand expectations.
Rather than venture into the open market this offseason, Musgrove signed a five-year, $100 million extension with two months left in the 2022 regular season. He is now one of the faces of the team he grew up rooting for — right up there with Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts — while the Padres navigate the most exciting time in franchise history. And he wouldn’t have it any other way.
Season prediction: The last four years have represented steady growth for Musgrove. In 2022, he was an All-Star for the first time. In 2023, he’ll be in the Cy Young discussion for the first time — as long as he wears sneakers in the weight room. — Gonzalez
LF | Cleveland Guardians
We’ve been so indoctrinated by today’s power-driven game that sometimes we forget that players like Kwan can not only still exist but excel, too. He hit .298/.373/.400 and won a Gold Glove in left field despite one of the lowest hard-hit rates in the game. His 5.5 bWAR was the best by a Cleveland rookie since Kenny Lofton in 1992. He makes it work because of impeccable strike-zone judgment — he swung and missed just 91 times out of 1,006 swings. Only Luis Arraez had a better contact rate.
The projection systems forecast regression, however, his contact ability, defense, speed and plate discipline give him a high floor of 3 WAR even if the average drops 20 points. But here’s betting on .300 in 2023.
Season prediction: Hey, I just said .300! Let’s go with .304 with 100 runs scored and another Gold Glove. — Schoenfield
SP | San Diego Padres
The Padres, throwing money around at a neck-breaking pace, signed Darvish to a six-year, $108 million extension, a deal that will amazingly pay him through his age-41 season. “If anybody is able to pitch a little bit later in their career and get this type of an extension, it certainly is him,” Padres manager Bob Melvin said.
Over these last two years, Melvin has gained a deep level of respect for the way Darvish works and cares about his craft, a trait that could allow him to overcome the issues that plague pitchers in their late 30s and early 40s. From 2017 to 2022, the 36-year-old ranks ninth in the majors in strikeouts and 17th in innings while posting a 3.66 ERA.
Season prediction: Darvish’s expansive repertoire allows him to adjust better than anybody, and last year was no different. He featured the lowest strikeout rate of his career, but also one of his lowest walk rates. His cutter, fastball and slider continue to make up the vast majority of his offerings, but Darvish can constantly change their sequencing and introduce several other pitches that continually keep hitters honest. With such a potent offense behind him, he can be an All-Star for the second time in three years in 2023. — Gonzalez
LF | Philadelphia Phillies
Schwarber went from being DFA’d after the 2020 season to hitting 46 home runs last year for Philadelphia. He’s played in the postseason for three different teams and just completed his first stint on Team USA in the WBC. That’s why he’s a top-100 player. But unless he reduces his strikeouts — he had exactly 200 last year — and raises his career .233 batting average, he’ll remain in the lower half of these rankings. He has vowed to address the former stat, and the elimination of the shift should address the latter one. As is, Schwarber is a valuable power hitter with playoff experience up-and-down his resume.
Season prediction: The elimination of the shift will indeed raise his batting average — one scout said as high as .270 — but the strikeouts and home run totals will remain the same. — Rogers
3B | Toronto Blue Jays
Chapman has not replicated his breakout 2018 season, but he maintained his status as one of the game’s best defensive third basemen in 2022 while providing power at the plate, hitting 27 homers and slashing .229/.324/.433. He is entering a contract year, and with the free-agent market hitting a new apex this past offseason, he could be poised to receive a major payday if he puts together a strong season — especially if he improves his batting average, which has not been above .232 since the 2019 season. Chapman will be the biggest name on the third base free-agent market with Machado having already signed an extension.
Season prediction: Chapman will continue his reign as one of the game’s premier defenders. Many around the Blue Jays believe that 2022 represented Chapman’s floor, and that with a major incentive to improve at the plate this season, the third baseman could put together his best year since 2018. — Lee
2B | Miami Marlins
Any Marlins fan in attendance at the WBC quarterfinal in Miami might have gotten the wrong idea when Arraez mashed a pair of homers for Venezuela against the U.S. That’s not the player they’ll see for the most part now that he’s joined the Fish. Instead they’ll see a hitter with such elite bat control and contact ability that in his Minnesota days, one could compare him to Rod Carew without being scoffed at. Arraez won his first batting title last season, hitting .316 for the Twins in the AL. Miami, in case you’re wondering, has had two batting champs: Hanley Ramirez and Dee Strange-Gordon. Arraez will be a strong candidate to join the list as long as he’s in Miami.
Season prediction: DJ LeMahieu is the only hitter to win a batting crown in both the AL and the NL. Arraez owns a career average of .314, a number good enough to win the crown in the senior circuit twice in the last five years. Now that he has switched leagues, LeMahieu may have company on this very short list a year from now. — Doolittle
LF | Tampa Bay Rays
First it was the 2020 MLB playoffs, then the 2023 World Baseball Classic. There is something about this guy in big moments. Arozarena will spend the rest of his career in the shadow of his postseason exploits of 2020 when he homered 10 times in 18 games, but he has settled into a solid all-around player who does a little bit of everything, posting seasons of 4.1 bWAR in 2021 and 2.9 in 2022. He had 41 doubles, 20 home runs and 32 steals last season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical spaghetti, but that was just the 25th time that has been done, and the first since Mookie Betts did it in 2018. He cut his strikeout rate 4% last season, and if he can cut it another 4%, he can climb a little higher on this list.
Season prediction: Arozarena is already 28, so you wouldn’t really expect improvement at this point. His swing and launch angle are more conducive to doubles than home runs, so I’ll stick with 20 home runs. It will be interesting to see if the Rays let him run, as he loves to be aggressive on the bases (sometimes TOO aggressive). Don’t rule out 40 steals. — Schoenfield
SP | Toronto Blue Jays
Gausman was solid in his first season with the Blue Jays in 2022, but the numbers didn’t necessarily pop the way they did with the Giants in the prior season. Look closer, though. Gausman had a 3.35 ERA that ranked 25th in the majors, but a 2.38 FIP that ranked second. Opponents’ batting average on balls in play against Gausman was .364, by far the highest for any qualified pitcher (second, interestingly enough, was Gausman’s teammate, Jose Berrios). The Blue Jays essentially needed better defense. And they took major steps there by adding Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho to their outfield.
Season prediction: Backed by a better defense, Gausman will make one of the biggest leaps in the sport, ERA-wise, and re-establish himself as a top-flight pitcher for a team that will contend for a division title. — Gonzalez
RF | New York Mets
If Marte could put together an injury-free season, he might be higher on this list. Nagging injuries have kept him from his full potential the last couple of seasons, though he continues to produce .800-plus OPS seasons through them. After having offseason surgery on his groin, it remains to be seen if he’ll be fully healthy come Opening Day. Even this spring, he had a scare after getting hit in the helmet by a pitch. Marte still has three years remaining on his deal with the Mets, who could use a big season out of him considering injuries they’ve incurred elsewhere on the roster. Marte dropped from 47 stolen bases in 2021 to 18 last season. Will that number increase again if he’s healthy for a full season?
Season prediction: Marte will steal 30 bases again, providing at least a 20/20 season for the Mets — if he’s healthy. — Rogers
SP | Los Angeles Dodgers
The fastball velocity erodes, the back continues to be a problem, and yet Kershaw is still pitching at a Hall of Fame level. Take just these last two years, when the proverbial thought was that he had fallen off. There were 105 pitchers who made at least 40 starts from 2021 to 2022. Only 13 had a lower ERA, only three had a lower WHIP and only two had a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio. When he’s on the mound, few are better than Kershaw. He’s 35 now, and there’s no reason why that still wouldn’t be the case. The only question is how much longer he wants to do this.
Season prediction: Kershaw has basically settled into who he is at this point. He’ll be susceptible to home runs and perhaps spend a stint or two on the IL, but he’ll pound the strike zone, prevent runs and, when he’s out there, continue to perform at an elite level, even if the radar gun indicates that he shouldn’t. — Gonzalez
SP | Tampa Bay Rays
There’s an argument to be made that Glasnow’s torn UCL was the difference between the Rays making a run to the World Series in 2021 versus exiting in the first round after a 100-win season. A healthy Glasnow still holds that potential. The 29-year-old righty returned in 2022 after recovering from Tommy John surgery and started Game 2 of the wild-card series between the Rays and the Guardians, allowing two hits and no runs in five innings while striking out five. If Glasnow stays healthy, he’s a critical part of Tampa’s success, but he’s started more than 20 games just once in his career.
Season prediction: It’s undeniable that Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in the game when he’s on the mound, but how much he’s on the mound is the actual question. He’s already missing the start of the 2023 season with a strained oblique, and his career numbers suggest that making more than 20 starts is an anomaly rather than a trend. But if he stays healthy, watch out for the Rays. — Lee
1B | Houston Astros
If all you knew about Abreu was that he was two years removed from an MVP award and just signed a three-year free agent contract, you’d think the champion Astros just snagged themselves an in-his-prime superstar. That might not be precisely the case, but even at 36, Abreu remains a premier run producer who will likely slot right into the cleanup slot in Houston.
His RBI count dropped to 75 last season, and it wasn’t just a function of diminished opportunity, as his RBI percentage fell from 42% to 31%. His homers fell from 30 to 15 and isolated power fell from .219 to a career low .141. Still, Abreu hit .304, and his exit velocities and barrel rates remained largely unchanged. Clearly, the Astros noticed.
Season prediction: Abreu is a hard worker, remarkably consistent, a leading clubhouse voice and enters the coming season on a quest for his first World Series ring. You can pretty much count on another 100-RBI season even if his power doesn’t rebound all the way back to pre-2022 levels. — Doolittle
SS | Milwaukee Brewers
Adames continued his ascent as one of the game’s best shortstops in his first full season with the Brewers, hitting 31 homers with a .238/.298/.458 batting line in 139 games. Adames has been especially lethal in high-leverage situations, hitting .306/.333/.514 in 120 plate appearances in 2022. Additionally, the shortstop has been strong with runners in scoring position with two outs, hitting .302/.429/.603 in 77 plate appearances in 2022. And that’s before you factor in his glove. Adames has one of the best arms for a shortstop in baseball and ranks among the best NL shortstops in outs above average and runs prevented.
Season prediction: The biggest variable is the batting average. Expect Adames to hit for power, but if he’s also able to add hitting for a higher average to his repertoire, he will be flying up these charts, especially considering his defensive prowess. — Lee
SP | Seattle Mariners
After a strong rookie season in which he went 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts, Kirby is a popular breakout candidate for 2023 — especially after posting a 3.02 ERA in a second half in which he allowed just one home run. With excellent control (just 22 walks), a 95-mph fastball that he can dial up to the upper 90s and a six-pitch repertoire (he threw each at least 8% of the time), it’s easy to see why many expect a big season.
He needs to get better against right-handers after they hit .324 against him, and he’s working on a new splitter since six pitches apparently aren’t enough. Improving the slider to give him a better swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed batters will be vital in order for him to make a leap.
Season prediction: If the new splitter and the new slider that he started late last season prove effective, Kirby is a great sleeper Cy Young pick. I won’t go that far yet, but look for 15 wins and an ERA around 3.00. — Schoenfield
CF | Chicago White Sox
Perhaps the most talented player to be this low on the top 100, Robert simply has yet to put it all together in the big leagues. Injuries have stopped him in his tracks — he’s played the equivalent of one season over the last two. He just hasn’t been impactful in any meaningful way, but few can deny his talent. On paper, Robert is a five-tool player but nagging ailments have limited his ability to hit or run. For now, he’s a top-100 talent, but that may be all he’ll be unless he can stay healthy.
Season prediction: Robert made it through the WBC without injury, so that’s a good sign. A 30-30 season isn’t out of the question if he stays on the field. — Rogers
OF | Toronto Blue Jays
Varsho’s days behind the plate are probably over. He’s just too good of an outfielder. He contributed a major league-best 18 outs above average last year for the D-backs, who dealt him to the Blue Jays because they simply had too many young, promising, left-handed-hitting outfielders. The 26-year-old also contributed some with the bat, adding 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases to finish with a 4.6 fWAR. The Blue Jays, though, need him mostly to cover ground in their outfield. They’re hoping the steps they took on the run-prevention side — adding Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier, Chris Bassitt and Erik Swanson — will be enough to take the AL East.
Season prediction: Varsho will once again be basically a league-average hitter, but he’ll steal at least 20 bases, play Gold Glove-caliber defense and be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 5.0 WAR. The Blue Jays will gladly take it. — Gonzalez
C | St. Louis Cardinals
The project of Contreras stepping into the proverbial shoes of retired Redbirds legend Yadier Molina has many levels. He’s replacing the best catcher in franchise history. He’s replacing a nine-time Gold Glover. He’s replacing one of St. Louis’ most beloved athletes and the leader of the clubhouse. And, in Contreras’ new partnership with Adam Wainwright, he’s taking Molina’s place in baseball’s most prolific battery. On top of all that, Contreras has to live up to a five-year, $87.5 million contract in an intense baseball city. It’s a lot. But if any player has the make-up to fill all of those shoes, it’s the hyper-competitive Contreras. It won’t take long for Cardinals fans to realize they now have their best everyday offensive catcher since Ted Simmons.
Season prediction: From a numbers standpoint, it is all but certain that Contreras will be a sizable offensive upgrade from Molina because of his combination of power and patience. But initially, the focus will be on Contreras’ defense and ability to work with the St. Louis pitching staff. Don’t expect him to fail. — Doolittle
3B | Pittsburgh Pirates
Hayes represents the hope that Pirates fans have for the future of the ballclub. The 26-year-old third baseman put together a strong season in 2022, posting a 4.3 bWAR while hitting .244/.314/.345 with seven homers and 20 stolen bases in 136 games. He added muscle to his frame this offseason in hopes of improving his power numbers. While Hayes certainly has room for improvement offensively, he’s already among the league’s best defensively at the hot corner, routinely making highlight reel plays.
Season prediction: Hayes takes a big step forward, developing his power stroke while continuing to improve the strides he’s made as a base stealer in the major leagues. He represents a potential franchise cornerstone if he can keep improving in the manner he has over the last few seasons. This could be the year he goes from one of the game’s most overlooked players to a top-tier star. — Lee
2B | Arizona Diamondbacks
One more season like 2022 and Marte will find himself outside the top 100. His OBP dipped to .321 last year (his lowest since 2016), he struck out over 100 times for the first time in his career and his defense declined. A hamstring injury may have contributed to his struggles, but he was scuffling before he got hurt. The Diamondbacks are counting on Marte to lead their team to postseason contention, and while some of his underlying numbers are worrisome, he remains a candidate for a rebound season.
Season prediction: Marte improves on some of his offensive numbers but remains a high strikeout player. He’ll whiff over 100 times for the second consecutive season and second time in his career. — Rogers
After getting down-ballot Cy Young votes each season from 2019 to 2021, Giolito thought it was a good idea to add more mass. The 6-foot-6 right-hander weighed a hulking 280 pounds in 2022, but it didn’t lead to better results as he went 11-9 with a 4.90 ERA. He’s back to his old weight, dropping 35 pounds, but it was a decline in fastball velocity that was perhaps what hurt him most last year. His four-seamer averaged 94.2 mph in 2019, but it has steadily dropped since then and was down to 92.6 in 2022. In 2019, batters hit .203 and slugged .364 against it; in 2022, they hit .283 and slugged .449. He’s going to have to regain some fastball mojo to stay in the top 100.
Season prediction: That fastball velocity is trending in the wrong direction. He wasn’t as bad as that 4.90 ERA indicates, and he should be better in 2023, but I wouldn’t put him at the top of my Cy Young contenders. — Schoenfield
SP | Seattle Mariners
Gilbert made some encouraging strides in his second season as a major league starting pitcher, lowering his ERA from 4.68 to 3.20 and accumulating 185⅔ innings. But his exit data — 91 mph average exit velocity, 45.6% hard-hit rate — offered up some troubling signs. Gilbert rose through the ranks largely off his fastball command; however, it’s the development of his slider that is going to elevate him. A curveball with more depth has been incorporated to offer another variation from the two pitches.
Season prediction: Expect another step forward for Gilbert in his age-26 season, but also some ups and downs. His exit data has been consistently subpar the last two years, with hitters slugging both his fastball and his slider. Those offerings need to improve. — Gonzalez
RF | Seattle Mariners
Calling an established big league player “toolsy” can almost be looked at as a pejorative, but the label works for Hernandez because he’s paired his strengths in tools with enough skill to build up a solid track record of production. He ranks in the top five percentile in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, per StatCast, and also ranks high in barrel rate, sprint speed and arm strength. There are holes in his game, to be sure. He chases too much and has a high swing-and-miss rate. His metrics as a defender lag behind his tools. But over the last five seasons, he’s averaged 34 homers, 97 RBIs and 89 runs per 162 games with a 121 OPS+. After moving from Toronto to Seattle via trade over the winter, he’ll now try to help the Mariners get over the hump in their pursuit of their first AL pennant.
Season prediction: There will be a lot on Hernandez’s shoulders in 2022. Not only will he be hitting cleanup for a new team, the coming season will be the platform campaign before his first foray into free agency. He’s already 30, which is not a great age for a first-time free agent, so he, and the Mariners, have a lot riding on a big season. A forecast: He’ll get it. — Doolittle
OF/DH | Chicago White Sox
The former top prospect came into spring training on a mission, after having lost 25 to 30 pounds this offseason. Jimenez changed his diet, giving up red meat while eating more chicken and salmon in an effort to replicate the body that helped him emerge as one of the game’s most promising young players in the minor leagues. The White Sox outfielder is still just 26 years old, although he has yet to show the superstar production many expected out of him as one of the game’s best young prospects, struggling with injuries in 2021 and 2022. When he was on the field in 2022, Jimenez looked solid, hitting .295/.358/.500 with 16 homers in 84 games.
Season prediction: Jimenez takes a step forward after an offseason of hard work. Health will be the biggest x-factor, but his success is one of the focal points of Chicago’s progress in 2023, with a clubhouse of young players struggling to fulfill their true potential. — Lee
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Bill Connelly
To be the man, you have to beat the man. It’s the mantra of Charlotte-based wrestling great Ric Flair, and it pretty reliably describes the annual title race in the Charlotte-based ACC. For 14 straight years, the ACC crown has gone to either Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers or to someone who managed to beat them in the regular season.
Over the past 10 of those 14 years, Clemson has won eight titles. Even as the Tigers’ status as a national championship contender diminished — they’ve finished from 13th to 20th in the AP poll for four consecutive years after six straight top-four finishes — they’ve split the past four conference titles. Last year they became the first bid thief of the expanded College Football Playoff era, knocking off SMU in Charlotte to nab the final playoff berth over Alabama. And with the highest returning production percentage in the country, the Tigers not only head into 2025 as obvious favorites to defend their crown, but they are also garnering top-five hype.
I’ve been pretty skeptical about the latter hype — we’ll talk plenty about that below — but there’s no question the Tigers enter 2025 as the ACC’s most likely champion. Who else might contend? Will SMU charge back after coming so close to a title in its conference debut? Can Miami finally get the offense and defense functional at the same time? Since beating Clemson in the regular season is evidently a prerequisite to ACC glory, can someone such as Louisville or Duke take advantage of opportunities? And what the heck is Florida State capable of after suffering the end-all, be-all of collapses in 2024?
The most geographically ridiculous conference in major college football has countless storylines heading into the fall. Let’s preview the ACC!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC and Indie/Pac-12 previews.
2024 recap
Though Clemson indeed won the race, the ACC’s journey through 2024 was fascinating, with Cal (and its online fan base) generating early buzz and bringing “College GameDay” to town, Florida State suffering a historic collapse, Miami reaching as high as fourth in the polls during a 9-0 start, Georgia Tech scoring a couple of stirring upset wins (and nearly getting a third), Duke and Syracuse each riding close wins to big seasons (they were a combined 13-3 in one-score finishes) and SMU rolling to an 8-0 regular season in ACC play — after nearly losing to Nevada in the season opener and making an early quarterback change, no less.
Louisville lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, Miami’s defense no-showed down the stretch, and after looking like they were in the middle of a lost season (by Clemson standards), there the Tigers were to swoop in, land a spot in the title game and beat SMU with a field goal at the buzzer in one of the best games of the year.
Both Clemson and SMU reached — and lost in the first round of — the College Football Playoff, capping a madcap season.
Oh yeah, and then North Carolina hired Bill Belichick. Can’t forget that.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Though the national average for returning production is around just 53% this season, the ACC is one of three conferences (along with the Big 12 and SEC) to average 59% or higher. Clemson, at 80%, leads the way nationally, and seven other teams are at 60% or better. The Tigers hit that number in a few different ways. Swinney added three transfers to the Clemson roster, a mammoth number by his standards, but Clemson still does less portal work than any non-service academy in the country. Others, such as Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, don’t do much either. BC actually joins a strange club: Of the teams in the six conferences I’ve previewed to date, only BC, Ball State and Missouri State have fewer than 10 incoming starts from transfers and fewer than 10 redshirt freshman. It’s a pretty odd combination.
Jeff Brohm’s Louisville, meanwhile, does more portal work than most, and among the top teams in the returning production column, Miami, Louisville, FSU and Duke all got there in part through the addition of transfer quarterbacks.
2025 projections
We have some pretty big stratification at the top, where ACC No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 SMU are separated by 10.2 points, larger than the difference between No. 6 Duke and No. 16 Wake. The Tigers are projected favorites of at least 12 points in seven of eight league games and could get their biggest tests from a pair of nonconference matchups against the SEC — LSU’s visit in Week 1 and the trip to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.
Miami’s rating might be a bit surprising. The Hurricanes obviously benefit from how ridiculously good last year’s offense was — they’re still projected to have the best offense in the country despite losing basically eight starters. That will be a high bar to clear, but the defense has a chance to improve beyond 44th, too. We’ll see.
Because of the volatility baked into the projections, Clemson has only about a 2-in-7 chance of winning the league, and Miami, SMU and Louisville could each make a run to the title game. NC State, meanwhile, has a pretty workable conference schedule if you’re looking for a random sleeper.
Five best games of 2025
Here are the four conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points, plus a mammoth Week 1 nonconference game.
LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). There are a couple of other huge ACC nonconference games — Notre Dame at Miami in Week 1 and Clemson-South Carolina at the end — but I love this game showing up in Week 1 because there aren’t many teams I have more questions about than LSU and Clemson. Let’s get a bunch of those questions answered right away.
Miami at Florida State (Oct. 4). At this point, Miami will have already hosted Notre Dame and Florida in nonconference play. But the Canes’ ACC opener in Tallahassee will tell us a ton about both teams.
Louisville at Miami (Oct. 17). One of the bigger Friday night games of the season. Louisville hosts Clemson in November, but the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes might require them to win either this one or at SMU in late November.
Miami at SMU (Nov. 1). Miami has three games on this list within a month of each other. Because Clemson’s projections are so favorable, Miami might be the most important team in the title race — if the Canes don’t make it to Charlotte for the league title game, they will have a huge role to play in who does.
Clemson at Louisville (Nov. 14). Clemson’s tightest projected conference game. The Tigers have to visit Louisville a year after the Cardinals smothered them 33-21 in Death Valley East.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Dabo Swinney (17th year, 180-47 overall)
2025 projection: eighth in SP+, 10.0 average wins (6.8 in the ACC)
Hey there, Tigers fans. More than any other fan base this offseason, you guys have accused me of hating your team because of how open I’ve been in my skepticism toward its top-five bona fides. We’ll get to that, but I should note that none of that skepticism applies to the ACC race.
Again, the national average for returning production at the moment is about 53%. Clemson’s is 80%. The Tigers bring back quarterback Cade Klubnik (3,639 yards, 36 TDs last season) and three of his top four receivers in junior Antonio Williams and sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore (combined: 2,263 yards and 21 TDs last year). Plus, sophomore Tyler Brown, injured in 2024, returns after catching 52 passes in 2023. Throw in the rarest of Clemson rarities, an incoming transfer receiver — Tristan Smith (934 yards and six TDs at SE Missouri State) — and you’ve got a tantalizing skill corps even with the loss of leading rusher Phil Mafah. (Sophomore back Jay Haynes easily topped Mafah by averaging 6.9 yards per carry in a small sample, though he’s coming back from a late-season ACL tear.)
Anchoring all this talent is what should be Clemson’s best offensive line in ages, one that returns four senior starters, including all-conference right tackle Blake Miller. The Tigers jumped to 16th in offensive SP+ last season — a far cry from where the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence offenses ranked but a vast improvement over the 2021-23 units, which averaged a 50.3 ranking. If huge returning production results in improvement (and it frequently does), they could easily have their first top-10 offense in a half decade.
The defense, meanwhile, was ridiculously young in 2024. Eighteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps, 13 of them return and nine are still only sophomores or juniors. That includes absolute stars in end T.J. Parker (11 sacks, 17 run stops), tackle Peter Woods (7.5 tackles for loss at 315 pounds), linebacker Sammy Brown (11.5 TFLs, five sacks) and corner Avieon Terrell (five TFLs, 13 passes defended), plus the rare senior in linebacker Wade Woodaz (15 run stops). And Purdue DE transfer Will Heldt (11 TFLs on a dismal defense) could add some star power as well. After the defense got worse for three straight years under coordinator Wes Goodwin, Swinney sought out a steadier set of hands in former Penn State DC Tom Allen. Improvement is likely, and a first defensive SP+ top-10 ranking since 2021 isn’t out of the question.
It’s a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games.
For starters, with all of those playmakers, Clemson’s defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012. The run defense was mediocre even with Woods’ efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great.
The Tigers didn’t stand out in terms of offensive explosiveness either. Mafah and Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion, even with some random explosiveness from Wesco and Moore. They could obviously be capable of far more, but I fear the preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas. Plus, Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there’s no way we’re talking about a top-five team here.
But that’s the hater talking, I guess. I’m excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we’ll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s. If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it’s going to come with this wonderfully experienced team. If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it’s going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC. It’s going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there’s a chance they prove this hater wrong.
Head coach: Mario Cristobal (fourth year, 22-16 overall)
2025 projection: 12th in SP+, 9.2 average wins (6.3 in the ACC)
I just can’t get past it. Trailing by seven points and facing a fourth-and-goal from the Syracuse 10 with under four minutes remaining, Cristobal took the ball out of No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s hands and elected to kick a field goal, hoping that his defense, which had given up touchdowns in four of five possessions and had no-showed for most of the previous two months, could make one last stop. It was painfully obvious that it wouldn’t. And it didn’t. Ward didn’t touch the ball again, and Miami fell 42-38, its ACC title and CFP hopes going by the wayside.
This wasn’t nearly the most disastrous game-management decision that Cristobal has made since taking over at The U in 2022, but it once again crystallized the contradictions inherent in the Cristobal experience. He’s going to recruit like gangbusters, he’s going to field an increasingly talented team, and when it’s winning time, he’s going to make a grave miscalculation.
Still, after a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. At some point, with the right combination of talent and quarterback play, your own game management issues can cease to be part of the equation. (Remember when we thought Andy Reid was a horrible game manager?)
I’m not saying Miami will be that talented in 2025, but there’s at least a chance. Carson Beck comes from Georgia after throwing for 3,485 yards and 28 TDs last season. He alternated between looking like the best QB in college football and throwing baffling interceptions (12 in all), but he’ll have backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle (combined: 1,007 yards, 6.1 per carry) and tantalizing North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown next to him and a deeply experienced line, led by tackle Francis Mauigoa, in front of him. Cristobal had to completely rebuild the receiving corps, which doesn’t return anyone who caught more than 10 passes. I’m not sure he got the job done there, but between wideouts CJ Daniels (Liberty/LSU) and Keelan Marion (BYU) and returning blue-chip youngsters such as Joshisa Trader and tight end Elija Lofton, there might be enough.
The offense covered for the defense as much as possible last season — the Canes actually went 3-2 while allowing 34 or more points — but Cristobal needed a lot of new blood on that side of the ball and got it. New coordinator Corey Hetherman led Minnesota to a No. 11 defensive SP+ ranking in 2024, and he takes over a unit that returns five starters and welcomes nine transfers. The defensive front looks strong thanks to the return of tackles Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. — they combined for 15 run stops and nine sacks despite Bain missing four games — and the addition of tackle David Blay (Louisiana Tech). If blue-chip sophomores Justin Scott and Armondo Blount develop properly, that’s a nasty defensive line. Transfer Mohamed Toure (Rutgers) could team with senior Wesley Bissainthe to form a decent linebacking corps. But breakdowns in the back were devastating last year, and Hetherman has to hope a remodeled secondary fixes that. Cristobal signed four new corners, led by Washington State playmaker Ethan O’Connor and including Jakobe Thomas (Tennessee) and potential nickel backs Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Kamal Bonner (NC State). Returning corner OJ Frederique Jr. could improve, too.
I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.
Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (fourth year, 29-13 overall)
2025 projection: 20th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.3 in the ACC)
Based purely on performance compared with recent history, there might not be a better college football coach than Rhett Lashlee. Before his tenure, the Mustangs’ previous two seasons with 11-plus wins came in 1982 and … 1935; he did it in 2023 and 2024. They hadn’t finished in the SP+ top 25 since 1983-84; they jumped from 56th to 24th in 2023, then to 12th in 2024. When he took over three years ago, SMU was an above-average AAC team. Now it’s defending a spot in the CFP.
Is a two-year sample enough to proclaim Lashlee the best coach in the sport? Probably not. OK, definitely not. But wow. Chad Morris (12-13 in 2016-17) and Sonny Dykes (30-17 in 2018-21) helped to dust this program off and get it back on its feet, but Lashlee has transformed it from head to toe.
The 2024 Mustangs dealt with early QB issues — incumbent Preston Stone was benched in favor of Kevin Jennings barely two weeks into the season — and committed far too many penalties and turnovers. They also made far more big plays than their opponents, went three-and-out far less, created more negative plays and dominated third downs on the way to an 11-1 regular season. They needed one more bounce against Clemson in the ACC title game, and Jennings briefly self-destructed in an impossibly loud environment at Penn State in the CFP, but it was a hell of a season. SP+ had projected SMU as a top-25 team and possible ACC contender, and it still sold the Mustangs short.
The continuity table above says relatively kind things for 2025. Jennings (3,245 passing yards, 436 pre-sack rushing yards, 28 total TDs) is one of about six returning starters on offense, the O-line has a pair of all-conference contenders in tackle PJ Williams and guard Logan Parr, and corner Deuce Harmon and safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Robert Rahimi (a ball-hawking San Jose State transfer) anchor what should be a strong secondary. But although Lashlee is used to living the transfer portal life, he had to do some serious work in rebuilding both the skill corps (which lost its top two RBs and three of its top four WRs) and the defensive front six (which lost eight of the 12 guys with 200-plus snaps). Three Mustangs gained at least 500 yards from scrimmage last year, and four made at least nine TFLs. They’re all gone.
Lashlee added a couple of solid pass-catching backs in T.J. Harden (UCLA) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Miami), and slot receiver Yamir Knight (James Madison) is an excellent efficiency guy. Meanwhile, linebacker Zakye Barker (13.5 TFLs at East Carolina) is nearly a sure thing, and defensive tackle Terry Webb (six run stops and 1.5 sacks at 314 pounds) is active for his size. But disruption up front was vital to SMU’s defensive success, and Webb is the only genuinely proven disruptor among nine incoming transfer linemen. Some newbies and/or youngsters will have to raise their game for SMU to return to either Charlotte or the CFP.
The schedule certainly seems trickier this time around. After nonconference battles with both Baylor (home) and TCU (away), SMU faces all three of the other teams in this title contenders section — Miami and Louisville at home and Clemson away. After what Lashlee and the Mustangs have done these past two years, doubting them seems pretty foolish. But they’ve got their work cut out for them in 2025.
Head coach: Jeff Brohm (third year, 19-8 overall)
2025 projection: 24th in SP+, 8.3 average wins (4.8 in the ACC)
Brohm’s Louisville is a very hectic program. Change never stops. In 2023, he took over a team that had ranked 41st in SP+ with an 8-5 record, sent 25 transfers out, brought 25 in and improved the Cardinals to 10-4 and 34th. In 2024, it was 30 transfers out, 32 in and further improvement to 21st with a 9-4 record. The offense got better each year, while the defense and special teams got worse.
In theory, by your third year, you probably want to have your culture and your own recruits in place, therefore necessitating fewer incoming and outgoing transfers. But that’s not how Brohm sees things. He lost 28 transfers and brought in 30. The Cardinals have some dynamite returnees in running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson (combined: 1,770 yards, 7.6 per carry!), receiver Chris Bell (737 yards, 17.1 per catch), potential all-conference center Pete Nygra, super-disruptive linebackers Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 11 passes defended) and safety D’Angelo Hutchinson (five pass breakups, five run stops). But those are damn near the only proven returnees. Brohm and offensive coordinator (and brother) Brian Brohm will have their third starting quarterback in as many years — likely USC transfer Miller Moss — and welcome four wideouts, three tight ends and seven linemen via the portal. Brohms typically field good offenses, and they’re clearly used to handling change, but this carousel isn’t slowing down at all.
The defense has indeed trended in the wrong direction of late, so maybe it’s not too scary that 14 of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps are gone. The linebacking corps looks excellent, and Brohm added quite a few proven disruptors via the portal: end Clev Lubin (9.5 sacks at Coastal Carolina), tackle Jerry Lawson (14 TFLs at 295 pounds at Abilene Christian), safety JoJo Evans (seven passes defended and four run stops at Florida International), corners Justin Agu and Jabari Mack (combined: 20 passes defended at Louisiana and Jacksonville State, respectively) and corner/safety Rodney Johnson Jr. (five TFLs, three passes defended at Southern), among others.
Living the portal life means your scouting department constantly has to hit the jackpot. Ask Florida State’s Mike Norvell — a 2022 portal genius, a 2023 portal genius and a 2024 portal disaster — how that can go. But Moss’ QBR (74.4) basically matched that of last year’s starter, Tyler Shough (75.0); the trio of Brown, Watson and Bell is the most explosive in the conference; and there’s no reason to think the defense is any less talented than it was last season. Like SMU, Louisville plays all three fellow contenders (Clemson at home, Miami and SMU away), and the Cardinals travel to Pitt and Virginia Tech, too. That’s an obstacle, and at some point, a trend toward stability would be nice. But Brohm seems to know what he’s doing with all these moving pieces, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Louisville improves for a third straight year.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Mike Norvell (sixth year, 33-27 overall)
2025 projection: 36th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.5 in the ACC)
For all the obvious reasons, I feared a bit of a hangover for FSU last year. The heartbreak of 2023’s unconscionable CFP snub combined with the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis, most of a dynamite skill corps and seven defensive draft picks made the Seminoles regression candidates, even if Norvell said all the right things in the offseason and brought in another solid-on-paper transfer haul.
Of course, if you’d asked me what “hangover” meant, I’d have probably guessed a record in the neighborhood of 7-5. FSU went 2-10! The transfer class produced almost no standouts, and the quarterback situation was even worse than at the end of 2023 after Travis’ injury — DJ Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek were dreadful. The Noles fell from ninth to 58th in defensive SP+ and from 23rd to 114th on offense.
This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But Norvell will try.
The offense, now coordinated by veteran Gus Malzahn, could start almost nothing but transfers, from quarterback Thomas Castellanos (Boston College) to running back Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma) to receivers Squirrel White (Tennessee), Duce Robinson (USC) and Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina) to any of six new offensive linemen. Tackle Micah Pettus (Ole Miss), guard Adrian Medley (UCF) and center Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest) are immediately the team’s most proven linemen. Castellanos was honestly an underwhelming addition; he started 2024 well at BC, but injuries and defensive adjustments rendered him mostly ineffective, and he was eventually benched. That said, he’s a speedster who started his career with Malzahn at UCF, and White and Robinson could be excellent.
On defense, new coordinator Tony White inherits a unit with few incumbents. Tackles Darrell Jackson Jr. and Daniel Lyons, linebackers Blake Nichelson and Omar Graham Jr. and corner Quindarrius Jones are solid, but transfers Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina), Jayson Jenkins (Tennessee), James Williams (Nebraska) and Elijah Herring (Memphis) will need to immediately spruce up the pass rush, and tackle depth appears tenuous. There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse? And how many games does Norvell need to win to assure he’s still in Tallahassee in 2026?
Head coach: Manny Diaz (second year, 9-4 overall)
2025 projection: 41st in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the ACC)
Mike Elko resurrected the Duke program, winning 17 games in 2022-23. But when he left for Texas A&M, Manny Diaz inherited an offense in need of a new quarterback and an overhaul on the line. The defense had been excellent under Elko, but 11 of the 16 guys with at least 250 snaps in 2023 were gone. A reset season seemed realistic.
Looking at the Blue Devils’ output, you could hardly tell there was any change at all.
Duke in 2022 (Elko): 9-4, 42nd in SP+ (55th offense, 29th defense)
Duke in 2023 (Elko): 8-5, 30th in SP+ (63rd offense, 25th defense)
Duke in 2024 (Diaz): 9-4, 44th in SP+ (71st offense, 31st defense)
The run game was a disaster, and Duke’s 6-1 record in one-score finishes camouflaged what probably should have been more like a seven-win season. But Diaz & Co. held the fort.
This year, the offensive line depth appears far stronger, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps, nine return, including four of six linemen and four of six DBs. Diaz added one of the Group of 5’s best safeties in Caleb Weaver (Sam Houston) and potentially exciting receivers in Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (Harvard), but his portal coup came at quarterback, where Darian Mensah comes over from Tulane. Mensah finished his redshirt freshman season 21st in QBR, just a few points behind veterans such as Klubnik (13th) and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (14th). Mensah’s numbers were strong across the board, from efficiency (66% completion rate) to explosiveness (14.4 yards per completion) to escapability (15.2% of pressures turned into sacks — a good number for a mobile guy). The skill corps is a bit of a question mark: Five of last year’s top seven pass catchers are gone, and Anthony, Barkate and running back Anderson Castle (Appalachian State) might all have to make an immediate impact. But Mensah is awesome, and the line looks sturdy. That’s a good starting point for improvement.
It’s hard to worry much about a Diaz defense, especially one with experience at the front and back. Ends Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. (combined: 20.5 TFLs, 11 sacks) and tackle Aaron Hall (7 TFLs) are good, and corner Chandler Rivers (6.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 8 breakups) is great. Four of last year’s top five linebackers are gone, and Diaz didn’t pursue any portal replacements, which theoretically means he’s happy with what he has there. Regardless, linebackers are generally easier to replace than linemen or DBs, so Duke has experience where it counts the most. I’m not sure Mensah will have enough help to make Duke an ACC dark horse, but the defense should give the Blue Devils a pretty high floor.
Head coach: Dave Doeren (13th year, 87-65 overall)
2025 projection: 42nd in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
“They’ll need some new disruptors. (Gibson usually finds them.)” That’s what I wrote about the NC State defense in last year’s ACC preview. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson had produced three straight top-30 defenses, per SP+, but he had to replace six excellent starters and needed transfers to fill major gaps in the secondary. Of eight defensive transfers, only two clicked, and Gibson’s track record didn’t prevent State from collapsing to 69th in defensive SP+. Doeren’s Wolfpack were ranked in the 2024 preseason poll, but even with slight overachievement on offense — they were projected 56th in offensive SP+ and ended up 48th — they posted their first losing record in five years.
It’s time for another round of change in 2025. Gibson took the Marshall head coaching job, and of the 16 defenders with 200-plus snaps last season, only six return. Linebacker Sean Brown (13 run stops) and tackles Brandon Cleveland and Travali Price (combined: 15 run stops) are good starting points for new coordinator D.J. Eliot, but after failing to land enough impact transfers last year, Doeren had to seek out even more of them. Cian Slone (Utah State) and Sabastian Harsh (Wyoming) were among the Mountain West’s best defensive ends last year, and Brian Nelson II (North Texas) and Jamel Johnson (Temple) were among the AAC’s most active corners. But this is a lot of change in a short amount of time, and the last time Eliot coordinated a top-50 defense was 2015.
There’s reason for optimism on offense, at least. Quarterback CJ Bailey was decent as a true freshman: He ranked 65th in QBR, right between two mega-blue-chippers — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola was 59th, Florida’s DJ Lagway 70th — and his best moments were great. He was 18-for-20 for 234 yards and three scores in a blowout of Stanford, he rushed for 83 yards and three TDs in a near-upset of Georgia Tech, and he threw for 242 yards and ran for 54 in a rivalry win at UNC. His performance was encouraging enough that when Doeren fired coordinator Robert Anae, he promoted QBs coach Kurt Roper.
Bailey isn’t Roper’s only exciting sophomore. Running back Hollywood Smothers (571 yards, 6.4 per carry) and Noah Rogers (478 yards, 13.7 per catch) were both portal hits, and incoming tackle Teague Andersen (Utah State) was honorable mention all-MWC as a freshman. If development and a new playcaller result in fewer negative plays — the Pack were 119th in turnovers, 116th in stuff rate and 74th in sack rate — this could be State’s best offense since 2021. That could be enough to drive a solid season if the defense doesn’t collapse further.
Head coach: Brent Key (fourth year, 18-16 overall)
2025 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
If you were watching Georgia Tech in 2024, the Yellow Jackets were probably doing something special. They played three top-10 teams and looked like a top-10 team against all three — they upset No. 10 Florida State in Ireland to start the season (back when we thought that was an upset), then knocked No. 4 Miami from the unbeaten ranks with a 28-23 win in November and all but beat No. 6 Georgia during Rivalry Week, eventually falling 44-42 after 114 overtimes. (OK, it was eight OTs.) They otherwise went just 5-5, losing at Syracuse and Louisville, briefly falling apart when quarterback Haynes King injured his shoulder and losing a fun Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt.
Overall, they really weren’t different than they were in Brent Key’s first season at the helm.
Georgia Tech in 2023: 7-6, 65th in SP+ (50th offense, 86th defense, 68th special teams)
Georgia Tech in 2024: 7-6, 66th in SP+ (42nd offense, 79th defense, 104th special teams)
Still, making memories can pay off. Key capitalized on those big moments by signing a top-20 recruiting class and holding on to key players like King, running back Jamal Haynes, all-conference guard Keylan Rutledge and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. He also added all-Ivy League running back Malachi Hosley (Penn), maybe Florida International’s two best players — receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 1,857 yards and 19 TDs — and a number of exciting defenders, such as end Ronald Triplette (UTSA), tackles Matthew Alexander (UCF) and Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), cornerbacks Kelvin Hill (UAB) and Daiquan White (Eastern Michigan) and safeties Jyron Gilmore (Georgia State) and Cayman Spaulding (Tennessee Tech).
The defensive transfers were necessary, since only seven of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps return for new coordinator Blake Gideon. Tech hasn’t had a top-50 defense, per SP+, since 2017, and since the Yellow Jackets allowed at least 31 points in five of six losses, it’s clear the defense held them back in 2024 as well.
Injuries did too. Nineteen defenders started at least one game, and King not only missed two games, but he was limited in others. His ridiculously physical style will always make him an injury risk, but when he and Haynes are in the backfield, Tech will have a chance to beat any team it plays. There won’t be as many marquee win opportunities — the Jackets play only two teams projected in the top 40 (Clemson and Georgia) — but if that results in more wins, period, I doubt Key will complain too much.
Head coach: Bill Belichick (first year)
2025 projection: 54th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
We’ve had months to get used to the idea of Bill Belichick running a college football program. It’s still going to feel ridiculously odd to see the 73-year-old, six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach leading North Carolina onto the field against TCU on the first Monday night of the season. I had this vision of Belichick deciding to finish his career leading some Division III team like his alma mater, Wesleyan. I can’t say I ever had a vision of him coaching in the ACC.
I still have no idea how it’s going to go. As I wrote in the spring, “Depending on how kind you are, Belichick has surrounded himself with either known entities or yes-men: two Belichicks (defensive coordinator Steve, DBs coach Brian), two Lombardis (general manager Michael, quarterbacks coach Matt) and other key former NFL assistants (offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, special teams coordinator Mike Priefer). He has raved about enjoying popping pads and yelling at tight ends, and he’s regarded as a good enough teacher that, for all we know, this unheralded roster might develop well and thrive. Or not. I have no idea how to set expectations for this.”
I like the roster more now than I did when I wrote that, thanks to the spring addition of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez (2,559 passing yards, 547 pre-sack rushing yards, 25 total TDs), and Belichick & Co. added lots of heft to the offensive line, signing eight transfers — including 2024 FBS all-conference performers in tackles Will O’Steen (Jacksonville State) and Daniel King (Troy) — who average 6-foot-6, 322 pounds. But the skill corps is terribly unproven: Leading returning running back Davion Gause had 326 rushing yards, and leading returning receiver Kobe Paysour had 365 receiving yards.
The defense, meanwhile, is almost completely starting over. Sixteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps last year, and only three return, all defensive backs. Linebackers Andrew Simpson (Boise State), Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska) and Khmori House (Washington) could all be keepers, though ends Pryce Yates (6.5 TFLs at UConn) and Melkart Abou-Jaoude (9.5 TFLs at Delaware) are almost by default the most proven linemen. Under Mack Brown, the defense usually dragged the offense down — the Heels allowed at least 34 points in five of seven losses last season — and while the word “Belichick” is synonymous with good defense, it might take UNC a little while to grow sound on that side of the ball.
Head coach: Brent Pry (fourth year, 16-21 overall)
2025 projection: 46th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (3.9 in the ACC)
In 2023, Virginia Tech fell as low as 80th in SP+ before the offense caught fire and drove a 5-2 finish. In 2024, the Hokies started slowly again but nearly beat Miami and won three straight ACC games by a combined 60 points before injuries to quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten slowed the offense down. Brent Pry’s team spent about half of the past two seasons flashing top-20 form but went a combined 13-13. And after massive turnover, Pry’s fourth Tech roster will look almost completely different than his third.
Drones is back. He has thrown for 3,646 yards and rushed for 1,377 in 23 games as a Hokie, and he’s a great starting point, but tight end Benji Gosnell is the only other offensive starter returning. On defense, linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are the only returnees who started more than six games. I really like a lot of the transfers Tech brought in, but they had to bring in so damn many.
On offense, running backs Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri) combined for 2,762 yards and 35 TDs in 2024, and Stewart is one of the best yards-after-contact backs in the country. Receiver Donavon Greene (Wake Forest) is dynamite when healthy (which isn’t often), former top-125 recruit Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) could be a nice yardage stealer in the slot, and guard Tomas Rimac (West Virginia) is one of four transfers new OL coach Matt Moore brought with him from WVU.
On defense, end Ben Bell (Texas State) was one of the nation’s best pass rushers in 2023 before missing most of 2024, and five other new D-linemen made at least five TFLs last year. In the back, safeties Christian Ellis (New Mexico), Isaiah Cash (Sam Houston) and Tyson Flowers (Rice) combined for 5 interceptions, 15 breakups and 14 run stops, while corners Isaiah Brown-Murray (East Carolina), Caleb Brown (Hawai’i) and Joseph Reddish (Wingate) combined for five INTs and 24 breakups.
On top of all this, Pry had to hire a new pair of coordinators, choosing a known quantity on offense (former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery) and an intriguing younger coach on defense (former Arizona Cardinals LBs coach Sam Siefkes). With how close Pry has come to success, it’s not optimal to deal with this much change at once, but this roster might have more upside than any Pry has led in Blacksburg.
Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (11th year, 72-56 overall)
2025 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.6 in the ACC)
One of the things that makes a college football season so enjoyable is the early upstart run, when a team enjoys some thrilling early finishes, gets off to a fast start and forces you to think of it as a potential contender. It adds such a layer of richness and world-building to the sport.
Pitt’s 2024 season is a perfect example. Coming off of a dire 3-9 collapse in 2023, Pat Narduzzi hired 30-year-old offensive coordinator Kade Bell (Western Carolina), paired him with former WCU back Desmond Reid and former Alabama backup quarterback Eli Holstein, and watched the offense drive a stunning 7-0 start. The Panthers scored late wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia, outlasted another September headline-maker (Cal) and blew out yet another upstart, Syracuse, thanks to three first-half pick-sixes.
And then they vanished from sight. Holstein struggled, then got hurt. An aggressive but glitchy defense sprang more leaks. And as delightful as they looked during the unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way.
Which was the more accurate impression, the start or the finish? Holstein is back, and Bell also has former WCU quarterback Cole Gonzales in tow, just in case. Reid is back after combining 966 rushing yards with 579 receiving yards, and the offense also returns two of its top three wideouts and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns four of the six players with at least eight TFLs, including linebackers Kyle Louis (17 TFLs) and Rasheem Biles (11.5), plus three physical DBs in safety Javon McIntyre and corners Rashad Battle and Tamon Lynum. Incoming transfer Kavir Bains-Marquez (UC Davis) was one of the Big Sky’s most disruptive defenders last year.
A Pitt game last year was almost guaranteed to feature a lot of negative plays, a lot of explosive plays and a lot of penalties. It was highly volatile ball, even by Narduzzi’s standards, and it paid off for the Panthers until it very much did not. Reid aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.
Head coach: Justin Wilcox (ninth year, 42-50 overall)
2025 projection: 65th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.4 in the ACC)
Somehow, Cal may have had an even more memorable mediocre season than Pitt. Because of a 3-0 start and the vaunted Calgorithm, the Golden Bears hosted “College GameDay” for the first time when Miami came to town. They led by as many as 25 points but fell, 39-38. It was basically the story of their season: They finished 55th in SP+ — their best ranking of the entire Justin Wilcox era — but went 6-7 because of a 2-5 record in one-score finishes. To compound the frustration, they proceeded to lose 33 players to the portal. (Wilcox also changed both coordinators.)
Wilcox honestly did a pretty good job of finding upside to replace upside in the portal. At quarterback, he found junior Devin Brown (Ohio State) and blue-chip freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had originally signed with Oregon. At running back, he grabbed Brandon High (UTSA), Kendrick Raphael (NC State) and former blue-chipper L.J. Johnson Jr. (SMU). Five new WRs and two TEs came in, including a high-level slot receiver in UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus and two of the most explosive receivers in FCS, Idaho’s Mark Hamper and South Dakota’s Quaron Adams (combined: 1,504 yards, 22.4 per catch). And he has five new offensive linemen to pair with two 2024 starters and 2023 starter Sioape Vatikani, who missed a lot of last season.
On defense, quite a bit of last year’s front six returns, including four of five primary linemen, but Wilcox still added four more linebackers and three linemen, including Liberty’s TJ Bush Jr. (nine TFLs) and former blue-chipper Tyson Ford (Notre Dame). The secondary, however, lost seven of last year’s top eight. In come seven DB transfers, including corners Hezekiah Masses (FIU) and Brent Austin (USF).
The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I’m not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears — two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition — Cal could top last year’s win total.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Bill O’Brien (second year, 7-6 overall)
2025 projection: 62nd in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Bill O’Brien’s first season as BC head coach was a full three-act play. At first, the Eagles were yet another intriguing upstart, holding Florida State to 13 points (again, back when we thought that was impressive) and damn near knocking off an eventual 10-win Missouri team. The defense was physical and frustrating, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos was able to run around and avoid defenders for seemingly minutes on end, even if he didn’t really go anywhere. Even when Castellanos began picking up injuries and losing effectiveness, the defense was good enough to assure a 4-1 start.
A three-game losing streak followed, however, and with O’Brien losing faith in Castellanos, he called Grayson James off the bench against Syracuse. James threw a late TD pass to secure an upset win, and O’Brien elected to start James from there; Castellanos quit the team, and BC won two more games to finish 7-6.
James suffered fewer negative plays than Castellanos and was able to both get the ball quickly to slot man Lewis Bond and connect on some deep shots to then-freshman Reed Harris. In a reasonably small sample, he ended up with one of the better Total QBR ratings in the conference, right between second-round NFL draft pick Tyler Shough and Kevin Jennings.
The James-Bond-Harris combo was intriguing, as were young RBs Turbo Richard and Datrell Jones in small samples. A good line lost a couple of all-conference starters; if there’s not too much of a drop-off there, there should be enough to maintain last season’s late momentum, especially if the Eagles get something out of transfers such as receiver VJ Wilkins (Campbell) and tight end Ty Lockwood (Alabama). Bama transfer Dylan Lonergan joined the QB race as well.
With a secondary loaded with freshmen and sophomores, coordinator Tim Lewis had to play things pretty soft in pass defense. But the run defense was sound, and BC both created long third downs for opponents and made a solid number of stops. The secondary is far more seasoned now, and linebacker Daveon Crouch is excellent. But with last year’s top four linemen gone, O’Brien loaded up with seven transfers up front, five from smaller schools. None had amazing stat lines last year, but if a couple can provide depth for veterans like end Quintayvious Hutchins, a top-50 defensive SP+ ranking is possible.
Head coach: Fran Brown (second year, 10-3 overall)
2025 projection: 56th in SP+, 4.8 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Those hatin’ numbers are at it again. Syracuse won 10 games last season and is now in the “just hoping for 6-6” section. What?
I’ll try to explain: In 2024, the Orange played only three SP+ top-40 teams and beat them all, but they went 7-2 in one-score finishes (hard to duplicate), and two of their three losses — by 28 to Pitt and at home to Stanford — were absolutely dreadful. Kyle McCord piloted an efficient, pass-happy offense, but opponents made more big plays, and they were among the most fortunate teams in the league. Despite the 10 wins, they finished 46th in SP+.
Of course, 46th was Syracuse’s best ranking in seven years! And Fran Brown’s first dalliances in the portal produced the Orange’s leading passer, leading receiver, two offensive line starters and four of their best defenders. That’s a good sign.
Things will get tougher in 2025. The schedule features five projected top-20 teams, and the offense returns only two starters. McCord will likely be replaced by either Steve Angeli (Notre Dame) or Rickie Collins (LSU), and with last year’s leading rusher and three leading targets gone, incoming receiver transfer Johntay Cook II (Texas) and a lot of former backups will have to step up. Up front, two starters return, but they’re two of only three guys with more than 40 snaps back, and Brown brought in five line transfers.
Injuries thrust a lot of guys into the starting defense at one point or another, and of the 23 players who started at least once (!), 15 return. There isn’t a ton of proven playmaking here, but safety Duce Chestnut and nickel Devin Grant are fantastic, and sophomore OLB David Omopariola‘s per-snap production suggests he has breakout potential. Brown didn’t load up on transfers, but he did add strong playmakers in tackle Chris Thomas (Marshall) and edge rusher David Reese (Cal) and a young former blue-chip safety in Chris Peal (Georgia).
Between the massive schedule-strength upgrade, last year’s inflated win total and the need for another batch of portal playmakers on offense, the odds certainly favor a setback season for the Orange. But Brown has barely made a misstep so far, whether the hatin’ numbers acknowledge it or not.
Head coach: Tony Elliott (fourth year, 11-23 overall)
2025 projection: 79th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.8 in the ACC)
On one hand, Virginia improved to 5-7 last year after back-to-back three-win seasons under Tony Elliott. The defense was solid against the run and on third downs, and the offense showed hints of an identity, with a fast tempo and a decent run game.
On the other hand, UVA played six top-50 teams and went 0-6 with an average loss of 36-17. SP+ saw barely any improvement whatsoever — after averaging a 95.0 SP+ ranking in Elliott’s first two seasons, they were 91st in 2024. They were horrific at both passing (113th in yards per dropback) and stopping opponents from doing so (118th).
After going .500 or better in each of Bronco Mendenhall’s last four seasons (average SP+ ranking: 45.8), UVA has just been terrible under Elliott. And this being the mid-2020s, Elliott will attempt to save his job via the portal. He welcomes 31 transfers to Charlottesville, and a vast majority of them are upperclassmen. Quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas) can wing the ball around, and I really like the running back duo of Harrison Waylee (Wyoming) and J’Mari Taylor (NC Central). I’m not sure whom Morris will be throwing to — Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and returnee Trell Harris are probably the biggest big-play threats — but thanks to seven transfers, almost the entire O-line two deep could be made up of seniors.
I like the D-line playmakers Elliott brought in: ends Fisher Camac (UNLV), Cazeem Moore (Elon) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) combined for 38.5 TFLs and 20.5 sacks last season, and tackles Jacob Holmes (Fresno State) and Hunter Osborne (Bama) are active for their size. The linebacking corps is probably the best unit on the team thanks to returnees Kam Robinson, Trey McDonald and James Jackson, but with most of the starting secondary gone, UVA will welcome eight transfer DBs.
Will this work? I’d be surprised. And even if it does, Elliott will have to sign about another 30-40 transfers next year just to account for the loss of so many seniors. But the schedule is light, featuring only two projected top-40 teams (and none in the top 20), and UVA is probably better at QB and on both lines than last year. Bowl eligibility is a possibility, at least.
Head coach: Jake Dickert (first year)
2025 projection: 81st in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.3 in the ACC)
Dave Clawson ended up a relic of a past era. He won 157 combined games at Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green and Wake Forest due to pragmatic program building and player development. He took his time — his win percentage in his first year in those jobs was just .277, followed by .354 in year two, .532 in year three and .698 in year four.
You don’t take your time anymore. It must be said that the best coaches adapt, and plenty have done so as the demands of NIL and the portal have so drastically changed how roster building works. But whether it was Clawson’s failure to adapt or Wake Forest’s failure to generate proper NIL funds — I’m not taking guesses either way — things fell apart pretty quickly for the Demon Deacons. In Clawson’s last two seasons, they went 4-8 with sub-90 SP+ rankings. The good players left too quickly, and there just wasn’t enough talent to work with.
If there’s anyone who knows about winning when your best players are constantly looking out the door, it’s Jake Dickert. He went 20-18 in three years at Washington State despite constant turnover. And his first Wake team will be portal-built. He inherits a solid tackle-breaker in running back Demond Claiborne, a sure-tackling linebacker in Dylan Hazen and little else. He brought a few Wazzu transfers with him, including three starting offensive linemen and a solid receiver in Carlos Hernandez. Those linemen will be protecting one of two very exciting (read: scramble-heavy and sack-prone) quarterbacks in sophomore Deshawn Purdie (Charlotte) or senior Robby Ashford (South Carolina). They’ll be running around a lot and potentially throwing to Hernandez and two 1,000-yard smaller-school receivers in Reginald Vick Jr. (Virginia Union) and Karate Brenson (Tennessee State).
Yes, his name is Karate Brenson.
Former Kansas State and Michigan State coordinator Scottie Hazelton takes over a defense that — surprise! — will consist mostly of transfers. Ends Gabe Kirschke (Colorado State) and Langston Hardy (UConn) were nice gets, and safeties Ashaad Williams (North Alabama) and Sascha Garcia (William & Mary) were both smaller-school ballhawks. Led by Hazen, this could become a solid-tackling, make-them-beat-you defense pretty quickly. But it’s still fair to question the overall talent level on both sides of the ball.
Head coach: Frank Reich (first year)
2025 projection: 88th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.2 in the ACC)
As far as interim coaches go, you could do worse than Frank Reich. The former Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers head coach — and engineer of two of the greatest comebacks of all time — has the résumé, even if he went just 4-15-1 in his last two years in those jobs. Andrew Luck, the Stanford GM overseeing the program, called in a favor in bringing Reich in after the awkwardly timed firing of Troy Taylor, and no matter what, Reich probably isn’t going to do any worse than Taylor. He went 3-9 in each of his two years on the job, just as predecessor David Shaw went 3-9 in each of his last two years. Stanford’s SP+ ranking has gotten worse in seven of the last nine years, and the last time the win total improved in a given season was 2015. Yikes. After the program’s sudden surge under Jim Harbaugh and Shaw, it’s been a slow-motion disaster for most of a decade.
So yeah, there’s a low bar for Reich. At QB, he and offensive coordinator Nate Byham will try to create something useful out of either senior Ben Gulbranson (Oregon State), sophomore Dylan Rizk (UCF) or redshirt freshman Elijah Brown; the only particularly proven players in the skill corps are smaller-school transfers in running back Tuna Altahir (Eastern Washington) and receivers Caden High (SC State) and David Pantelis (Yale). The offensive line, long loaded with former blue-chippers, doesn’t really have any left. But three starters do return, along with transfers Niki Prongos (UCLA) and Nathan Mejia (Sacramento State). Is there a successful offense in that mix? I don’t see it.
The defense has been horrible for three straight years, but it does have experience and continuity — of 20 players with at least 150 snaps, 15 return. Outside linebacker Tevarua Tafiti, nickel Collin Wright and safety Mitch Leigber are all solid, but the hope has to be that experience and development create something useful.
Things don’t usually turn around for an interim, but at the very least, things probably won’t get worse. Does that count as positive spin?
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Adam Rittenberg
Notre Dame offensive lineman Charles Jagusah is recovering from surgery to repair a fractured bone in his left arm following a utility terrain vehicle accident Saturday in Wyoming.
The team announced Jagusah will return to campus early this week for further evaluation, and that his prognosis from the surgery which repaired his fractured left humerus, a bone located between the shoulder and elbow, is “favorable.”
The accident is the latest setback for Jagusah, who was projected to start at left tackle for Notre Dame entering the 2024 season but tore a pectoral muscle early in training camp. He missed the entire regular season but returned for the Fighting Irish during their College Football Playoff run, filling in for Rocco Spindler at right guard and then starting the national title game against Ohio State at left tackle.
Jagusah has been set to start at guard for Notre Dame in 2025. The team did not provide an initial timeline for his return.
The 6-foot-7, 333-pound Jagusah is part of a young Notre Dame offensive line that projects to be among the nation’s best. Despite losing veterans Spindler (Nebraska), Pat Coogan (Indiana) and Sam Pendleton (Tennessee) to the transfer portal, Notre Dame returns promising players such as left tackle Anthonie Knapp and center Ashton Craig.
Jagusah was the No. 7 tackle and No. 66 overall recruit in the 2023 class. Notre Dame opens the season Aug. 31 at Miami.
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Eli Lederman
Four-star cornerback Chauncey Kennon, No. 48 in the 2026 ESPN 300, announced his commitment to Florida State on Sunday, securing his place as the top-ranked recruit in the Seminoles’ latest recruiting class.
Kennon, a 6-foot-2, 175-pound defender from Sarasota, Florida, is ESPN’s fifth-ranked cornerback prospect in the 2026 cycle. A priority in-state target for Florida State coach Mike Norvell, Kennon chose the Seminoles over Florida, Georgia, LSU, Miami and Oregon.
Kennon lands as the ninth ESPN 300 pledge to land with Florida State since June 1, spurring a run of recruiting momentum that has lifted the program’s 2026 class to No. 12 in ESPN’s latest class rankings. That group of recent additions includes four-star pass catchers Xavier Tiller (No. 84 overall) and Devin Carter (No. 130) and quarterback Jaden O’Neal (No. 166), the former Oklahoma commit and ESPN’s No. 8 pocket passer.
Kennon is now the top-ranked of six ESPN 300 defenders bound for the Seminoles in 2026, joining defensive tackle Earnest Rankins (No. 206 overall), cornerback Lawrence Timmons (No. 264), safeties Tedarius Hughes (No. 275) and Darryl Bell (No. 291) and defensive end James Carrington (No. 288). ESPN 300 commit Efrem White, currently classified as an athlete, could also land in the Florida State secondary when he joins the program next year.
Kennon is a two-way standout at Florida’s Booker High School, where he plays both wide receiver and cornerback. Sidelined by injury for a portion of his junior season, Kennon was credited 33 tackles, 16 pass breakups and an interception last fall, adding 10 receptions for 217 yards and six touchdowns on offense.
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