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UK grocery inflation has hit a new record high – with customers now paying hundreds more a year – but there are warnings the worst is yet to come.

As inflation for food hits 17.5%, Kantar Worldpanel reported households are now facing a potential £837 hike in the annual cost of their regular basket – although consumers are increasingly shopping around in a bid to find the best value.

Its latest report said footfall was up in “every single grocer” over the four weeks to March 19, with households now visiting three or more of the top 10 retailers per month on average – with chains “battling it out” to get buyers through their doors.

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But amid concerns over the impact of salad shortages in some UK supermarkets, Kantar said shoppers had instead turned to independents to plug any gaps in availability.

Its head of retail and consumer insight, Fraser McKevitt, said: “Despite concerns about shortages, the number of baskets containing tomatoes, cucumbers or peppers in the 10 major grocers stayed at 17% in March, the same as February.

“For any shoppers who couldn’t get what they wanted in larger supermarkets, the independents stepped in, with the volumes of tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers in baskets rising by 32%, 26% and 21% respectively in these stores.”

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The cost of sugar has helped drive inflation

‘The worst is yet to come’

Shop prices are now 8.9% higher than they were a year ago, up from February’s 8.4% increase, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-NielsenIQ index.

The rising cost of sugar, coupled with high manufacturing costs, has contributed to price rises for chocolate, sweets and fizzy drinks. Fruit and vegetable prices have also risen as poor harvests in Europe and North Africa limited availability.

But there are warnings the UK has not seen the worst of the surging prices.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Shop price inflation has yet to peak.

“Food price rises will likely ease in the coming months, particularly as we enter the UK growing season, but wider inflation is expected to remain high.”

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Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said: “Inflation continues to have an impact on the spending power of shoppers and increased energy bills from April will add more pressure.”

“Since food prices have risen retailers have seen more visits but less basket spend, as shoppers manage their weekly food bills by shopping little and more often and seeking out the lowest prices.

“And as Easter approaches some high street retailers will also be offering discounts and promotions to encourage customers to spend.”

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Unexpected rise in UK inflation

The fastest-growing supermarkets

Mr McKevitt said shoppers were increasingly taking advantage of store loyalty cards, with nine in ten consumers having one in their wallet, while shoppers are also picking more own-label lines, sales of which are up by 15.8% during the period compared to last year.

But he added: “People are keeping some space in their baskets for the brands they know and love. Outside the discounters Aldi and Lidl, branded goods still make up 52% of the market and sales grew by 7.2% over the past month, the fastest rate we’ve seen since February 2021.

Kantar said Lidl was the fastest growing supermarket with sales rising by 25.8%, earning it a market share of 7.4%.

Tesco remains Britain’s largest grocer with a 26.9% share of the market, while Sainsbury’s is on 14.8% and Asda 14.3%, according to the data.

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Bank of America boss Brian Moynihan warns countries to ‘be careful’ when raising tax

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Bank of America boss Brian Moynihan warns countries to 'be careful' when raising tax

The chairman and chief executive of one of the world’s biggest banks has said countries have “got to be careful” with their budgets and ask themselves what a tax rise is for.

Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan was speaking about the UK budget to Sky’s Wilfred Frost on his The Master Investor Podcast.

While Mr Moynihan said the recent UK fiscal announcement was “fine with Bank of America”, he added that governments must be careful with financial markets’ reaction.

“All countries have to understand that the simple question a business asks is, you want higher taxes… higher taxes for what? If the ‘for what’ is not something that makes sense, that’s when you get in trouble,” Mr Moynihan said.

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The American executive was complimentary of the UK as a centre for financial services, saying, “You’ve got to realise this is one of your best industries”.

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“You have many other good industries, but a great industry for you is financial services”.

The power of London

While Paris was looked to in the wake of Brexit, London has pulling power for Bank of America and its staff, Mr Moynihan said.

“London is a great city for young kids to come work. People from all over the world will come work here a while and leave, and others will stay here permanently.

“That’s the advantage you have. You’re built. And while other financial centres are trying to build…. you’re built, you’re there.”

London, he said, is Bank of America’s “headquarters of the world”.

Mr Moynihan was upbeat about the prospects for the country too. “It’s more upside for the UK right now than anything else,” he said.

Bank of America is the second-largest bank in America with a market capitalisation of nearly $300bn – making it roughly 10 times bigger than Barclays, Lloyds and NatWest, and more than three times bigger than HSBC.

Having met with the King again on his latest trip to the UK, the CEO said, “his briefing and his knowledge and his passion… it not only impresses me, but I’ve seen it in front of so many people over the last six years. It impresses everybody”.

Mr Moynihan – one of the longest-serving Wall Street chief executives – has been leading Bank of America since 2010, when he was brought after the financial crisis.

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Direct trains from UK to Germany ‘one step closer’, but nothing yet on journeys to Berlin

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Direct trains from UK to Germany 'one step closer', but nothing yet on journeys to Berlin

The UK has come a “step closer” to having direct, high-speed rail connections to Germany, the Department for Transport has said.

A partnership between international train operator Eurostar and German national rail company Deutsche Bahn (DB) has “set the foundation” for a fast rail connection between Britain and Europe’s largest economy, the businesses announced on Thursday.

It means the companies are exploring options to offer direct services between London and Cologne and Frankfurt.

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Such direct services would mean reaching Cologne in four hours, and Frankfurt in less than five from the capital city.

At present, rail passengers have to change trains in Brussels to reach those cities. It takes at least five-and-a-half hours to reach Frankfurt, and four-and-a-quarter hours to arrive in Cologne.

Cologne Central Station could soon be served by trains from the UK. Pic: AP
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Cologne Central Station could soon be served by trains from the UK. Pic: AP

The proposed services would use existing lines and infrastructure. Passengers would board a double-decker Eurostar in London, and be spared a change of trains on the continent.

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The ambition to create such links had already been announced, as had a plan to allow direct rail travel from London to Geneva, but the partnership between DB and Eurostar had not.

Will it definitely happen?

Details and technicalities are yet to be worked out, with the German train company highlighting that any services are contingent upon “the necessary technical, operational, and legal prerequisites being met”.

“Implementation by individual railway companies is considered extremely difficult,” DB said.

“Joint partnerships are therefore crucial.”

What about Berlin?

Nothing was announced for a direct service to Berlin on Thursday, despite Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander singling out the benefits and prospect of journeys from London to the German capital in July.

“The Brandenburg Gate, the Berlin Wall and Checkpoint Charlie – in just a matter of years, rail passengers in the UK could be able to visit these iconic sights direct from the comfort of a train, thanks to a direct connection linking London and Berlin,” she said at the time.

A high-speed Eurostar train heading towards France. File pic: PA
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A high-speed Eurostar train heading towards France. File pic: PA

Shorter journeys, like those to Frankfurt and Cologne, are seen as more commercially viable than the current 10-hour train journey time to Berlin.

Market studies conducted by Eurostar found travellers are comfortable with international rail journeys of up to six hours.

“Our research indicates that many would choose rail over air for trips within this timeframe,” Eurostar told Sky News. “This, combined with strong business and leisure demand on this route, is why we have prioritised London to Frankfurt.”

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The Department for Transport said the focus on the two German cities was a commercial decision by Eurostar and DB, and the UK-Germany rail taskforce, established over the summer, could pave the way for further route announcements.

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Energy grid £28bn upgrade to add £108 to household bills

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Energy grid £28bn upgrade to add £108 to household bills

The energy regulator has confirmed plans for a massive upgrade to the UK’s energy grids, adding £108 to customer bills by 2031.

Ofgem said on Thursday that the £28bn investment over the next five years would bolster resilience in the transition to a renewable energy future and that much of the bill would be offset by increased efficiency.

It pointed to estimated savings for households of around £80 because of the planned investment in gas and power infrastructure, leaving a net additional contribution of £28.

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Ofgem said the £28bn sum formed part of an estimated £90bn to be invested in the energy networks by 2031, with “adaptive” funding arrangements helping to shield customers from volatility in the market.

Most of the funding announced on Thursday will go towards maintaining gas networks, which will remain a key source of energy as green power capacity is built up further.

“Investing now to maintain world-class resilience and expand grid capacity is the most cost-effective way to harness clean power, support economic growth and protect the country from gas price shocks like the one seen in 2022”, Ofgem said.

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What’s driving energy prices higher?

Then, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s refusal to buy Russian gas in response, meant that energy bills hit unprecedented levels and gave birth to the wider cost-of-living crisis as higher energy costs were passed on across the economy.

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Ofgem made its announcement as costs of government energy policy and other upgrades make the biggest upwards contributions to household bills. However, the budget moved to take away some costs from April next year.

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley said: “The funding announced today will keep Britain’s energy network among the safest, most secure and resilient in the world. The investment will support the transition to new forms of energy and support new industrial customers to help drive economic growth and insulate us from volatile gas prices.

“But this is not investment at any price. Every pound must deliver value for consumers. Ofgem will hold network companies accountable for delivering on time and on budget, and we make no apologies for the efficiency challenge we’re setting as the industry scales up investment.

“We’ve built strong consumer protections into these contracts, meaning funds will only be released when needed and clawed back if not used. Households and businesses must get value for money, and we will ensure they do.”

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‘It’s either keep warm or eat’

A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: “This government is taking action to bring down energy bills for families, with the budget taking an average £150 of costs off bills in April, and expanding our £150 Warm Home Discount to over six million families.

“Upgrading our gas and electricity networks after years of underinvestment is essential to keep the lights on and ensure energy security for our country. Without these plans, which were first set out under the previous government, costs would spiral and our security would be compromised.

“The only way to bring down bills for good and get off the fossil fuel rollercoaster is with this government’s mission to deliver clean homegrown that we control.”

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