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Population growth could grind to a halt by 2050, before decreasing to as little as 6 billion humans on Earth in 2100, a new analysis of birth trends has revealed.

The study, commissioned by the nonprofit organization The Club of Rome, predicts that if current trends continue, the world’s population, which is currently 7.96 billion (opens in new tab) , will peak at 8.6 billion in the middle of the century before declining by nearly 2 billion before the century’s end. 

The forecast is both good and bad news for humanity: A plummeting human population will slightly alleviate Earth’s environmental problems, but it is far from being the most important factor in solving them. 

And falling populations will make humanity older as a whole and lower the proportion of working-age people, placing an even greater burden on the young to finance health care and pensions. The researchers — members of the Earth4All collective (opens in new tab) , which is made up of environmental scientists and economists — published their findings March 27 in a working paper (opens in new tab) .

Related: Why global population growth will grind to a halt by 2100

“We know rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates,” Per Espen Stoknes (opens in new tab) , director of the Centre for Sustainability at Norwegian Business School and the project lead of Earth4All, said in a statement (opens in new tab) . “Fertility rates fall as girls get access to education and women are economically empowered and have access to better healthcare.” 

The study is a follow-up to The Club of Rome’s 1972 Limits to Growth study, which warned the world of an imminent “population bomb.” The new result diverges from other recent population forecasts. For instance, in 2022, the United Nations estimated (opens in new tab) that the world population would reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and rise to 10.4 billion by 2100. U.N. estimates from a decade ago suggested the population would reach 11 billion (opens in new tab) .RELATED STORIES—How many people are in the world?

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Other models forecast population growth based on factors that affect women’s social independence and bodily autonomy, such as access to education and contraception. Earth4All’s model is slightly more complex, integrating variables connected to the environment and the economy. These include energy abundance, inequality, food production, income levels and the impacts of future global warming.

The model predicted two possible outcomes for the future human population. The first, “business-as-usual” case — in which governments continue on their current trajectories of inaction, creating ecologically fragile communities vulnerable to regional collapses — would see populations rise to 9 billion people by 2050 and decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. The second, more optimistic scenario — in which governments invest in education, improved equality and green transitions — would result in 8.5 billion people on the planet by the century’s halfway point and 6 billion by 2100.

The team also investigated the connection between population sizes and the planet’s ability to sustain human populations. They found that, contrary to popular Malthusian narratives, population size is not the key factor driving climate change. Instead, they pinned the blame on high levels of consumption by the world’s richest individuals, which they say must be reduced.

“Humanity’s main problem is luxury carbon and biosphere consumption, not population,” Jorgen Randers (opens in new tab) , one of the modelers at the Norwegian School of Business and a member of Earth4All, said in the statement. “The places where population is rising fastest have extremely small environmental footprints per person compared with the places that reached peak population many decades ago.”

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Avs show off ‘deeper’ team in late scoring barrage

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Avs show off 'deeper' team in late scoring barrage

DENVER — With a five-goal third-period barrage that saw a different player score each goal Friday night, the Colorado Avalanche showed the version of the team they believe can make up for last year’s first-round exit a year after winning the Stanley Cup.

The Avs cruised to a 6-2 win against the Winnipeg Jets to take a 2-1 series lead in the Western Conference quarterfinals.

“Last year, we had no goals outside of our top three forwards and defensemen,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said. “This year, I don’t know, you’d have to total it up, but it’s huge contributions. We’re a deeper team. There’s no question about it.”

A lack of secondary and tertiary scoring last season contributed to the Avs scoring 19 goals in the first round before they were eliminated in seven games by the Seattle Kraken.

They already have 17 goals through three first-round games this year, with 10 of them coming from beyond their first line and their top defensive pairing.

Veteran winger Zach Parise, who signed with the Avs in February to win his first Stanley Cup, staked the team to a 1-0 lead before the Jets used the second period to take a 2-1 lead through Tyler Toffoli and Josh Morrissey.

Penalties, however, played a role in grounding the Jets in the third period.

“Since I’ve been here, I thought the third was the best period we’ve played,” said Avalanche center Casey Mittelstadt, the team’s trade deadline acquisition who finished with three assists.

A power-play goal from Nathan MacKinnon tied the score a little more than two minutes into the third. The Avs took the lead through another power-play goal from Valeri Nichushkin almost two minutes later.

Goals from Artturi Lehkonen and Ross Colton extended the lead to 5-2 before Devon Toews’ empty-net goal made it 6-2 with 3:35 remaining in the game.

“I think for us, being down one in the third there, we didn’t sit back on our heels,” Colton said. “I think we just kind of took it to them. When we play with that speed and that energy, we’re a good team. Obviously, we had some power plays, but we drew them with hard work and getting in on the forecheck and putting them under pressure. It all starts with that.”

At the end of the game, there was an on-ice scrum between the Avs and Jets that saw Jets defenseman Brenden Dillon emerge with a bloodied, lacerated left hand. Dillon immediately left the ice and entered the Jets’ dressing room.

Jets coach Rick Bowness said there was no immediate update available on Dillon’s condition.

“Obviously, a scary situation there,” Morrissey said. “I don’t really have anything to say, but we’re all really concerned for him and just hoping everything is OK.”

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Entertainment

R Kelly loses appeal to overturn 20-year sentence for child sex abuse

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R Kelly loses appeal to overturn 20-year sentence for child sex abuse

R Kelly’s challenge against a 20-year sentence for child sex convictions has been quashed by an appeals court. 

The singer was correctly sentenced to 20 years in prison, a Chicago court ruled on Friday.

He was convicted in 2022 on three charges of producing child sexual abuse images and three charges of enticement of minors for sex.

In his appeal, Kelly, 57, argued Illinois’ old statute of limitations – which required prosecution of child sex crime charges within 10 years – should have applied, rather than the current law permitting charges while an accuser is still alive.

The appeals court rejected this, labelling it an attempt by Kelly to elude the charges entirely after “employing a complex scheme to keep victims quiet”.

He also argued that charges involving one accuser should have been tried separately from the charges tied to three other accusers due to video evidence that became a focal point of the Chicago trial.

Prosecutors have said the video showed Kelly abusing a girl. The accuser, only identified as Jane, testified for the first time that she was 14 when the video was taken.

The three-judge panel from the appeals court noted jurors acquitted Kelly on seven of the 13 counts against him “even after viewing those abhorrent tapes”.

Read more on Sky News:
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In a written statement, Kelly’s attorney Jennifer Bonjean said they plan to seek a US Supreme Court review of the decision and “pursue all of his appellate remedies until we free R Kelly”.

“We are disappointed in the ruling, but our fight is far from over,” she said.

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ITV newsreader Rageh Omaar ‘receiving medical care’ after on-screen behaviour worries fans

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ITV newsreader Rageh Omaar 'receiving medical care' after on-screen behaviour worries fans

ITV News presenter Rageh Omaar is “receiving medical care” after becoming “unwell” live on-air, the TV channel says.

Omaar, 56, was presenting News At Ten on Friday when he appeared to be struggling to read the news bulletins, stumbling over words, prompting concern online.

ITV pulled the show from its scheduled re-run on ITV+1, telling viewers that the channel was “temporarily unable to bring you our +1 service”.

Afterwards, an ITV News spokesperson said: “We are aware that viewers are concerned about Rageh Omaar’s wellbeing.

“Rageh became unwell while presenting News at Ten on Friday and is now receiving medical care.

Rageh Omaar attending the ITV Palooza held at the Royal Festival Hall, Southbank Centre, London. Picture date: Tuesday November 23, 2021.
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Rageh Omaar in 2021. File pic: PA

“He thanks everyone for their well wishes.”

No further details were given and it is unclear what was happening to Omaar during the broadcast.

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Omaar covers major news stories as ITV’s international affairs editor, while also presenting the channel’s current affairs programme On Assignment.

He was previously a senior foreign correspondent for the BBC, rising to prominence during the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

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