ICE car values plummet in China and it is the canary in the coal mine
A looming crisis is brewing in China, as hundreds of thousands of unsold, polluting gas-powered vehicles may be rendered unsellable due to incoming emissions rules. It’s another sign that the global auto industry isn’t ready for the shift to EVs and will be caught unawares if it doesn’t ramp EV production fast enough.
The new Chinese emissions rules were announced all the way back in 2016 and are set to go into effect in July. This gave automakers almost seven full years of notice to get it together and prepare to produce and sell less-polluting vehicles, more than enough time to bring a new model fully from original conception to production.
The rules don’t ban all gas cars, but they do set stricter emissions standards on several pollutants released by internal combustion vehicles. Carbon monoxide, Nitrogen oxide, particulates, and other pollutants must all be reduced by a half or a third.
Automakers seem to have planned to continue selling polluting vehicles up until the deadline, but then COVID hit. This affected the production of vehicles but also affected purchases. Auto sales dropped, and while sales have started to recover somewhat, most of that recovery has been in EV sales, while ICE sales are still depressed.
Dealership foot traffic is high, but customers simply aren’t buying. This has left dealers with a huge glut of polluting vehicles and a ticking clock that will make them unsellable in July.
China was originally somewhat slow to adopt EVs – in 2015, EV market share was less than .84%, similar to the US market share of .66% and well below California at 3.1% at the time. But in 2022, US market share had risen to only 7.2% and California to 18.7%, whereas China’s EV market share is now a whopping 30%, leapfrogging several countries in the process. So China was a little late at the start but has advanced much more quickly in recent years, catching companies by surprise.
As a result, dealers have been offering massive discounts on polluting inventory vehicles, but this hasn’t been enough. Even the government has stepped in, with provincial governments adding additional subsidies to reduce the price of locally-produced vehicles.
Rapidly dropping prices have resulted in a “wait-and-see” attitude among Chinese buyers. Given that prices are already falling, customers think that they can wait longer and that these prices will fall even further.
Given the dealers and manufacturers are confronted with a situation where their cars will soon become valueless and that there simply aren’t enough customers interested in buying the number of cars they have in inventory, any price they can get for the cars that’s greater than zero may be worthwhile come July.
But the problem most harshly affects foreign automakers in China. Chinese companies have been faster to adopt EVs than foreign ones, so automakers from Europe, Japan, and the US will be most affected by this glut of vehicles. Sales from Chinese brands are flat year-over-year, but sales from US brands are down 12%. German and Korean brands are down 22%, and Japanese and French brands are down more than 40%.
China’s car dealership associations are scrambling for a fix. The China Auto Dealers Chamber of Commerce (CADCC) asked that the emissions rules be delayed six months, until January 1, to help clear the backlog. This is not an unexpected request from a Chamber of Commerce – organizations which so often take the side of polluters over people – but the CADCC also requested that automakers stop production of new cars that don’t meet the upcoming standards immediately, rather than continuing their production plans up until July.
But that’s just China – the same will happen around the globe
China’s turnaround on EV adoption may be an exceptional case. It has gone from a relative laggard to one of the global leaders and now stands only behind Northern Europe in current EV market share. The timing of COVID, the rapid shift to EVs, and new emissions rules have created somewhat of a perfect storm in the country.
But make no mistake – similar trends will play out elsewhere in the world in the coming years, and many automakers simply are not ready.
It takes time to design, build, and distribute vehicles, as these companies know well. But the inability to project trends seven years into the future will prove to be the downfall of laggard companies that don’t take EVs seriously.
I don’t say this in an attempt to function as some sort of oracle of the automotive industry, but from simple observation of events happening now.
We’ve seen other regions shift to EVs faster than expected. Even Norway, long known to be a standout in EV adoption, has taken many by surprise. The country planned to end gas car sales in 2025, but it’s already basically there. This has resulted in some brands hastily withdrawing their gas cars from the Norwegian market – Hyundai only gave a few days of notice that they would stop selling gas cars in the country at the start of this year.
This sort of thing is possible in a country that’s part of a large economic bloc where cars can be shifted around to other nations, but when the entire bloc goes electric, what then? We get a situation like China’s, with stranded vehicles that may end up being worth nothing or close to it.
We’ve also seen some drivers, not even high-mileage ones, realize that renting, fueling, and maintaining an EV is cheaper than the continued running costs of using a paid-for gas car. When that happens, the value of the gas car is effectively zero – it’s worse to continue driving it than it is to get a whole new EV.
It doesn’t take much to see that these trends could result in a full-on “bank run” to abandon gas cars and buy EVs, depending on how unbalanced the supply-demand equation becomes.
Tesla as a case study
Tesla started selling cars in 2008, and 100% of those cars were electric. But it only really got into “mass production” in 2012-2014 with the Model S. At the time, one could look at a chart of sales trends of the Model S versus competing models like the BMW 7-series, Mercedes E- and S-class, Lexus and Audi offerings, etc., and see a strange dip in all of them which coincided with the rise of Model S sales. Tesla wasn’t creating a new market, it was eating the market that existed – and fast.
And these trends continued with other models. It was clear that EVs – as long as they were designed to take advantage of the inherent benefits of electric drive and sold with purpose rather than as compliance vehicles – were going to take market share from gas cars.
The company making these moves loudly proclaimed that in order to make EVs work, one needed to ensure that they had enough batteries to manufacture these cars, enough dealers who cared to sell and knew how to sell these cars, and a suitable charging network for owners to get around in a transparent manner. So it did those things. All around a decade ago.
This wasn’t a secret; other automakers could see it happening. I had this discussion with executives from various automakers around the mid-2010s, many of whom saw it happening but couldn’t get their organizations to act with proper urgency. Meanwhile, most of them thought that they would easily overtake the newcomer with their superior manufacturing expertise – with VW famously claiming they’d reach that point by 2018 (spoiler alert: they still haven’t).
And now, we’re still hearing CEOs say that “batteries are the constraint,” while Tesla outsells every other brand’s EVs combined, twice over, in its home country. Tesla also happens to have a battery factory that broke ground nearly ten years ago now, while some manufacturers are just starting to break ground or announce investments this year.
This is not even a case of Tesla being uniquely right in these prognostications. It is the pure EV company that started first (which is to say, the only one that started at the right time), had enough funding to get off the ground in time (a difficult task), and was confronted with a blue ocean, a market that refused to build EVs in any significant number.
Tesla thus became essentially the only game in town. People want EVs, and everyone else just isn’t bothering to make them yet. This didn’t need to be inevitable. This happened due to intransigence from the major players in the industry. And this case study shows that it was not impossible to see these signs coming, nor impossible to act on them. Other automakers just…. didn’t.
The signs were there from the start
We, the EV faithful, have been trying to shout this from the mountaintops since the beginning. In fact, Electrek exists largely because of this tweet from our publisher Seth Weintraub, ten years ago this year:
We’re a few months out from Seth’s deadline, and look at what’s happening in China. In the next three months, potentially hundreds of thousands of cars are under threat of becoming valueless because they don’t meet the emissions guidelines that were announced long ago. Buyers could buy them now for a song but still aren’t interested.
In 2018, we saw the same thought make its way into “mainstream” car media when WSJ’s Dan Neil said the same. That was five years ago now, and even then he said that he would be stupid to buy a gas car at the time, because by the time he was ready to sell that car, ICE car values would likely drop to zero.
Meanwhile, the EV deals of the past (which we catalog here on Electrek) have largely dried up (well, except for the Chevy Bolt, which is a screaming deal). Automakers don’t need to give deals on EVs – everyone wants them. They’re going to sell out regardless. Heck, you can barely even find one for MSRP these days.
This mismatch of supply and demand is because automakers have consistently underestimated EV demand for a decade now. We heard for so long that the demand wasn’t there, and all of a sudden, now we’re hearing the opposite. But if you wait to react until after the demand is too high for you to fulfill, you’ll still have years worth of prep to do before being able to meet that demand.
At this point, it could be too late already for some automakers. Even the largest on Earth, Toyota, seems likely to suffer from their obstinacy (along with other Japanese automakers and perhaps the entire country of Japan). Toyota’s new CEO, Koji Sato, has given some indications that he wants to turn things around, but it’s very late in the game already.
And going back to China, this is part of what the China Automobile Circulation Association warned about in a March 24 note. It recognized that auto manufacturers got demand drastically wrong and that those companies’ underestimation of EV popularity is what has led to this situation. It called on all levels of the auto industry – government, manufacturing, and dealerships – to shape up and embrace change in a way that these entities have not yet done.
We need to see the same in the rest of the world, lest the same fate happen elsewhere. You’ve been warned.
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When I first got my hands on a Chinese electric mini-excavator, I thought it would be a fun little machine for digging a few holes and moving some dirt around. What I didn’t expect was just how useful and versatile it would become – and how often I’d reach for it for jobs that I never initially planned on tackling with a compact electric digger.
As I’ve watched all the fun reporting on new electric excavators, I’ve looked on in envy at what the current state of the art is… if you’ve got a quarter million bucks burning a hole in your hefty pocket. They are amazing machines, but I feel like the kid sitting outside of the sandbox and looking in, never able to play with the toys myself. But as it turns out, as long as you don’t need a massive machine, a mini-electric excavator wound up offering me many of the same benefits.
These battery-powered machines are cleaner, quieter, and cheaper to run than their diesel counterparts, which is great. That’s exactly why I started with NESHER in the first place. But what really surprised me was how many odd jobs around my parents’ acreage my little NX2500 excavator managed to take over. Here are five unexpected ways I’ve been using my Chinese electric mini-excavator.
1. Trench digging for irrigation
This was actually one of the first “off-script” jobs I tackled. My parents needed to run some irrigation lines through their property for a new garden setup, and while I originally planned to help my dad out the old-fashioned way (with a trenching shovel and a lot of sweat), I had my first mini-excavator delivered only a month ahead of time, and the timing couldn’t have been more perfect.
I figured, “Why not?” and before I knew it, I was carving clean, even trenches in a fraction of the time. What would’ve taken an entire weekend by hand was done in about an hour or two, and with zero back pain. It’s a perfect example of how machines like this can turn exhausting, sweaty work into something you actually enjoy.
Ever since I hurt my back a few years ago, a part of my rude welcome to how the mid-30s feels quite different from the mid-20s, I’ve been a little more aware of the kind of stress I put on my body. While I’m still quick to grab a shovel when I need one, the thought of hand trenching all day with a shovel versus an hour in the operator’s chair was a no-brainer.
2. Tree planting made way easier
Planting one tree is no big deal. Planting 10? Or 20? That’s starting to become a project. Planting 50? That’s a whole day with a shovel – or just a couple of hours with the mini-excavator.
The machine makes short work of digging perfect-sized holes, whether you’re dropping in fruit trees, palms, or trying to reforest a bare section of land.
In the beginning, there was some trial and error, but I’ve learned that you can fine-tune your technique to get the hole shape just right, so the trees don’t settle awkwardly or too deeply. It’s still manual labor in a sense, since those joysticks don’t work themselves, but it’s a lot less manual than working the shovel all day!
I also found that I can use a simple yard sled to load the spoils onto, then use the UTV to drag it away to the spoil pile elsewhere on the property. If you don’t have a dump truck or mini-truck around, a yard sled is a cool little way to move heavy things easily by dragging them around.
3. Mulch moving machine
I hadn’t originally planned on using the excavator for this one, but I had a big pile of mulch that needed to get loaded into the back of my mini-truck to bring over to a planting area. Instead of shoveling it by hand or using buckets, I figured I’d see how the excavator would handle scooping and dropping. And it worked beautifully.
Is it a perfect loader bucket? Not really. But it does save a lot of time and effort compared to doing it by hand. For loose materials like mulch, compost, or even sandy soil, it’s a no-brainer.
I still generally prefer to go with one of my loaders for bulk material like this, but in a pinch, the excavator can move 4-5x the amount I can per shovelfull, and each pass is a heck of a lot less exhausting on me!
4. Grading around trees for a shipping container pad
Here’s one I definitely didn’t expect to work so well. I had an area near some trees where I wanted to drop a shipping container. The ground was a mess – uneven, root-covered, and just generally not flat enough for the container to sit level.
I figured I’d give the excavator a shot at scraping and grading the area flat, and with a little finesse, it worked surprisingly well. It took some careful passes, and I wouldn’t call it laser-level precision, but it was more than good enough to get the container settled evenly and safely.
I’ve since put a second container next to it and built a roof structure between them, so now I have a 40×10-foot (12×3-meter) covered parking area between two shipping containers. I’d say it worked quite well!
5. Hoisting and lifting logs (and other heavy stuff)
Now this one’s a bit outside the box – and outside the manual. These machines aren’t really designed for lifting heavy objects the way a larger excavator or crane is, but they’re surprisingly capable if you’re smart about it.
I’ve hoisted several hundred pounds with mine, like awkward loads or cut log sections. A lifting strap slung over the bucket makes it easy to mount weird-shaped things, and you just have to be careful about swinging around too quickly.
I added a manual thumb attachment, and that proved to be a real game-changer. I can now pick up logs and branches, spin them around, and drop them into the bed of the mini-truck like a tiny mobile crane. Again, one or two logs are easy enough to toss by hand. But when a tree or two comes down after a storm and there are 20 or 30 logs, my back is going to thank me for not trying to toss each one by hand.
Final thoughts
It’s easy to write off these Chinese electric mini-excavators as toys or underpowered knock-offs. But after putting on real-world use for everything from planting trees to loading mulch and lifting logs, I can say they’ve proven themselves. No, they won’t replace a full-size backhoe or dozer, but they’re not trying to. These things are for the small jobs – the ones that wear you out if you try to do them by hand and don’t justify calling in a pro crew. They’re for the homesteaders, not the contractors.
Add in the fact that they’re electric – so you can run them in a garage or barn without worrying about fumes –and you’ve got a pretty compelling machine for landowners, landscapers, hobby farmers, or anyone who wants a quiet, capable, compact helper.
They aren’t without their downsides. Run times are only between 4-6 hours, and the roughly 1 mph (0.6 km/h) walking speed is excruciatingly slow when you need to travel to the farther flung areas of the property. But at least they’re relatively quiet and vibration-free, not to mention emission-free, for that long traverse!
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Slate Auto, a new EV startup backed by Jeff Bezos, has poached a key Tesla manufacturing leader to build its electric pickup truck factory in Indiana.
Napoleon Reyes is a US Marine from Indiana who got a degree in mechanical engineering from Purdue after leaving the force.
He then worked a few years at Subaru and Wabash before joining Tesla’s manufacturing team at the Fremont Factory in 2020.
There, he became part of the Model Y production ramp and was quickly promoted to lead the Model Y General Assembly in Fremont in 2022.
Reyes led Model Y GA, one of the most critical parts of vehicle manufacturing, for more than a year before being promoted again to lead new pilot processes at the factory.
Most recently, he led the launch of the general assembly line for the Model Y refresh.
The new engineering manager announced this week that he is leaving Tesla to join Slate:
A bit late on the post but after nearly 5 years working at Tesla in Fremont, I made the difficult decision to leave the Company and move closer to home with my family. It was an incredible experience being part of multiple line expansions and multiple Model Y program launches. Leading and managing the Model Y Refresh launch for GA in Fremont this year tested me professionally however we ultimately succeeded due to our amazing cross functional team collaboration. It’s been an absolute pleasure working with such great people, and I will forever be proud and thankful for everything we accomplished together.
I will be taking on a new role as Senior Manager, Plant Vehicle Engineering at Slate Auto in Warsaw, In.
Slate emerged from stealth mode earlier this year to unveil a new type of electric pickup truck featuring modular customization and an affordable price.
The company raised over $700 million through two rounds of investments from several different investors, including Jeff Bezos. It is currently raising more, which basically guarantees that it will be able to reach production.
The startup acquired a former printing plant in Warsaw, Indiana. It is currently converting to manufacture its electric pickup with a team from legacy automakers and also several former engineers and leaders from Tesla.
Rich Schmidt, an early Tesla manufacturing director, is the head of manufacturing.
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Genesis is preparing to shake things up with its most luxurious SUV yet, the GV90. Thanks to a new patent filing, we are getting a detailed look at how its Rolls-Royce-style coach doors will work.
New patent reveals Genesis GV90 coach door system
When Genesis first unveiled the full-size SUV at the NY Auto Show last March, it wasn’t the stunning design or advanced tech that caught everyone’s attention. It was the coach doors.
Although we were worried it wouldn’t make it to the production model, like many concepts, the Genesis GV90 will be offered with coach doors.
The ultra-luxe electric SUV was first caught with coach doors earlier this year on a car carrier in South Korea. Just last month, the GV90 was spotted in California with a hinge at the rear to open the coach doors.
After several new patents were filed with the United States Patent and Trademark Office for new door latching devices, we are getting a sneak peek at how they are expected to work.
The patents, titled “Cinching Device For Door Latches in Vehicle,” and “Door Latch Device for Vehicles,” give a pretty detailed explanation of how the Genesis GV90’s coach doors will operate. The “Door Latch Device” uses a door striker on the lower side of the door, which is opened or closed by a hinge unit.
Unlike traditional doors, which use the B-pillar for support, the device is attached directly to the door itself, allowing for hinge-like movement.
The cinching device works in a similar way. It’s also attached to the door and part of the vehicle. However, unlike most of its kind, Genesis found a way to use a single cinching device to control multiple units. Again, the device is used for B-pillarless doors that swing open.
Genesis already said that B-pillarless coach doors are now feasible in production vehicles. The patent reveals a glimpse into how the luxury automaker could make it a reality.
Although the Genesis GV90 is expected to be offered with coach doors, they will likely not be standard. Other variants, with traditional door handles, have also been spotted testing in the US and South Korea.
Genesis is expected to launch the GV90 in mid-2026. It will be built at Hyundai’s Ulsan plant in South Korea. The flagship Genesis SUV is scheduled to debut on Hyundai’s new eM platform, which the company said will “provide 50% improvement in driving range.” It will also be loaded with the latest technology, software, connectivity, and Level 3 or higher autonomous driving capabilities.
Source: USPTO
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