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Members of Congress are away from Washington over the Easter and Passover holidays, but they’re gearing up to resume hearings and committee meetings once they return. House Republicans, especially, are setting up a wide range of probes, trying to maximize where they will gain the most traction.
Following former President Trump’s Tuesday arraignment in Manhattan, where he was charged with 34 felony counts of falsification of business records stemming from hush money payments to an adult film star during the 2016 election, House Republicans fiercely condemning the arrest launched a probe into District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) office. As The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch and Emily Brooks report, the move has prompted pushback from Bragg and Congressional Democrats warning not only that it could interfere in an ongoing case, but questioning whether Congressional committees have jurisdiction over a state prosecution.
Republicans’ justification appears to rest on concerns that the probe amounts to election interference, as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calf.) suggested in a tweet following Trump’s arraignment on Tuesday. And they note that Bragg’s office admitted some federal funds were used — though the approximately $5,000 in federal funds that Bragg’s office said it spent on the investigation is likely just a drop in the bucket on total cost.
“Alvin Bragg is attempting to interfere in our democratic process by invoking federal law to bring politicized charges against President Trump, admittedly using federal funds, while at the same time arguing that the peoples’ representatives in Congress lack jurisdiction to investigate this farce,” McCarthy tweeted. “Not so. Bragg’s weaponization of the federal justice process will be held accountable by Congress.”
While the much-awaited charges against Trump show Bragg plans to largely rely on campaign laws to prosecute the former president, sprinkled into charging documents and public statements are references to tax law violations — a sign New York prosecutors may be hedging their bets by bringing a broader case. The financial crimes that serve as the underlying basis for Trump’s prosecution are what Bragg referred to as the “bread and butter” of his office, located in the financial capital of the world.
But in hanging much of the case on election laws, Bragg delves into more complex territory, one that requires demonstrating the payments were made to influence the election as well as grappling with Trump’s status as a federal candidate in the state-level prosecution. Norm Eisen, counsel for Democrats in Trump’s first impeachment, has encouraged Bragg — who implied there may be more charges to the case — to bring charges under both federal and state election laws.
“Look, it can’t be that Donald Trump lives in some special universe when neither state nor federal campaign law applies to him. It has to be that one or the other applies, and I don’t think that a judge is going to buy into that Catch-22,” Eisen told The Hill.
Trump, for his part, has called for Congress to defund the Department of Justice and FBI in response to growing legal pressure, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. The move sets up a battle between Republican leaders and Trump’s most fervent supporters on Capitol Hill over whether Congress should use its power of the purse to pressure Attorney General Merrick Garland to back off another potential indictment of the former president.
The call for action also presents a new headache for GOP leaders who regularly accuse Democrats of supporting the “Defund the Police” movement, especially as House Oversight panel Republicans want D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) to testify during a hearing on May 16 about what some lawmakers describe as a crime “crisis” in the nation’s capital. The mayor said this week that she has not decided if she will appear (NBC4).
▪ The New York Times: Charges against Trump bring doubts, hopes and uncertainty in both parties.
▪ The Washington Post analysis: Trump faces narrow charges as prosecutor alleges broad scheme to undermine vote.
▪ The Hill: Here’s a look at what comes next in Trump’s case. The arraignment kicked off months of proceedings that will stretch well into the 2024 campaign season.
▪ The Washington Post: Trump’s criminal case in New York may collide with the 2024 campaign.
Back in California, McCarthy on Wednesday met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and a bipartisan group of House lawmakers outside of Los Angeles, projecting a united democratic front that brushed aside stern warnings from China. The meeting at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley marked a concrete step forward on one of McCarthy’s top legislative priorities: pushing back on the Chinese government’s influence. On Wednesday, the Speaker became the highest U.S. official to meet with Taiwan’s leader on domestic soil since the U.S. established formal diplomatic ties with China in 1979 (The Hill and The New York Times).
Speaking with Bloomberg News, McCarthy defended the meeting from criticism by Beijing. “China cannot dictate who a speaker of the House can meet with, either foe or friend,” the Speaker said. He added that he would “gladly” meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and emphasized that his recent meeting included a bipartisan group of lawmakers.
Tsai, who has been “transiting” through the U.S. over the course of a week, last Thursday met with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y) in New York, as well as Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) (NBC News).
▪ Politico: China is ghosting the United States, as Beijing has effectively frozen high level bilateral diplomatic contact in the wake of the Chinese spy balloon incident in February.
▪ The Associated Press: China vows “forceful” measures after U.S.-Taiwan meeting.
Related Articles
▪ The Hill: Former Vice President Mike Pence will cooperate rather than appeal a judge’s order to testify to a grand jury in the Justice Department’s investigation involving Jan. 6 and Trump. Special counsel Jack Smith subpoenaed Pence early this year.
▪ The Hill: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) on Wednesday endorsed Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis for president in 2024, although the governor has not officially announced a campaign. Massie followed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who also endorsed DeSantis in next year’s GOP presidential primary.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Robert Kennedy Jr., 69, an environmental lawyer and author publicly known for spreading misinformation about COVID-19 and other vaccines with an anti-vaccine charity, events and books, filed to seek the presidency as a Democrat.
▪ The Washington Post: Across the country, Trump’s arrest draws celebration and indignation.
▪ Vox: The last 48 hours revealed the GOP’s intractable 2024 dilemma.
LEADING THE DAY
➤ POLITICS
From battleground Wisconsin to reliably blue Illinois, progressive Democrats are elated that voters in two significant elections on Tuesday reacted to events tied to abortion and crime, respectively, and opted to move left.
A judicial election in Wisconsin put avowed progressive Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz on the state’s Supreme Court, delivering a liberal majority there for the first time in 15 years. Democrats believe independent voters and suburban voters who participated on Tuesday are unsettled by the state’s rightward tilt on abortion, reports The Hill’s Caroline Vakil.
Wisconsin has an 1849 abortion law that restricts access to the medical procedure with few exceptions, and it’s back on the books following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. The law is being contested and is expected to make its way to the state Supreme Court.
Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, said abortion was the top issue in the court race, but is linked to concerns about democracy and representation in the state “because Republicans have done everything in their power to prevent the majority from being able to shape our laws around access to abortion.”
▪ The Washington Post analysis, Paul Kane: The Democratic playbook in 2023 looks familiar: a 2022 “midterms redux.”
▪ Politico: Wisconsin Republicans once more felled by a common foe: The mail.
▪ The Guardian: Dark money groups push election denialism on U.S. state officials.
Tuesday’s close mayoral contest in Chicago featured debates about crime, education and a runoff candidate perceived as an authentic progressive. Mayor-elect Brandon Johnson, a former teacher and organizer for the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU), turned in a big win with key backing from the union, reports The Hill’s Lexi Lonas. His opponent, former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, conceded the race Tuesday night.
“Today, Chicago has spoken,” CTU President Stacy Davis Gates said. “Chicago has said yes to hope, yes to investment in people, yes to housing the unhoused, and yes to supporting young people with fully funded schools. It is a new day in our city.”
Democrats hope key progressive issues will resonate in next year’s Senate and White House battles in the Badger State and beyond (The Hill).
➤ ADMINISTRATION
The Pentagon landed an interesting hire from Apple Inc. Vice President Doug Beck will leave the private sector to lead the Defense Department’s innovation hub, known as the Defense Innovation Unit, elevating the role to report directly to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (Defense News).
The IRS is set to release its plans to spend an increase of $80 billion (The Hill).
▪ Business Insider: Devoted Health quietly blew past other insurance upstarts in the red-hot market for seniors.
▪ The Hill: Regulators crack down on Medicare Advantage charges.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: “You are completely alone”: Inside the infamous Russian prison holding Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. Former prisoners at Lefortovo and their lawyers and families describe a sterile facility carefully engineered to make its prisoners feel abandoned.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Meet Roger Carstens, America’s top hostage envoy who pursues freedom for detained U.S. citizens in an increasingly hostile world.
IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES
➤ INTERNATIONAL
The apparent assassination of a prominent Russian military blogger over the weekend placed a spotlight on a group that serves an often overlooked but crucial role in Russia’s war machine, writes The Hill’s Brad Dress.
Before he was killed in an explosion over the weekend, Vladlen Tatarsky was a prominent Russian military blogger with hundreds of thousands of subscribers on Telegram who read his frequent updates on the war in Ukraine. Tatarsky, whose real name was Maxim Fomin, relayed a pro-war agenda and an ultranationalist perspective to his followers, part of a network of patriotic Russian military bloggers who have risen to outsized prominence during the war in Ukraine.
Although many of the bloggers are hawkish supporters of the war, some of the writers are even critical of the Kremlin for its many setbacks in the violent conflict, and still other bloggers are affiliated with the mercenary company Wagner Group. But these bloggers are largely embraced by Russian President Vladimir Putin as another means to further his goals in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Poland for his first formal visit to one of Kyiv’s closest allies since the start of the Russia invasion. Zelensky was awarded Poland’s highest honor, the Order of the White Eagle, during a meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda in Warsaw. Unlike previous visits abroad in recent months — which were typically announced at a moment’s notice and involved high-stakes travel under cover of darkness — Zelensky is traveling accompanied by his wife (CNN).
“You have not abandoned Ukraine, you stood with us shoulder to shoulder, and we are grateful to you. We believe this is a historic relationship,” Zelensky said during a news conference with Duda. “Your personal attitude to our people, millions of Ukrainians who have found shelter in Poland, who feel at home here – I want to thank the entire Polish nation for all of this and for those first days and weeks when we needed this help so much.”
▪ Politico EU: Zelensky’s Warsaw visit overshadowed by a political blowup.
▪ Reuters: Zelensky indicates Ukraine could pull out of Bakhmut if Russians close in.
Speaking at the start of a three-day visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday that Beijing could play a “major role” in bringing peace to Ukraine and made clear that he would urge Xi to get deeply involved in this effort. Macron insisted that the differences over political systems that make Europe and China “rivals” should not lead to the “decoupling” and “escalating tensions” that some regard as inevitable (The New York Times).
“I do not believe, and do not want to believe, in this scenario,” he said.
▪ The Washington Post: Macron and Europe hedge their bets on China.
▪ Reuters: Macron tells Xi to reason with Russia on Ukraine war.
▪ CBS News: Hatchet attack at Brazil daycare center leaves four children dead.
▪ Reuters: Top Iranian, Saudi Arabian envoys meet in China in restoration of diplomatic ties.
OPINION
■ AI may be good for humanity but very bad for warfare, by Hal Brands, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3UffH7b
■ For American workers, generative AI threatens an already unstable future, by Joseph Chamie, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/417jZzV
WHERE AND WHEN
📲 Ask The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.
The House will hold a pro forma session at 11 a.m. Lawmakers will return to the Capitol beginning April 17.
The Senate meets at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session.
The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 11 a.m. Biden and first lady Jill Biden will depart the White House at 4 p.m. to head to Camp David, where they will remain for the Easter weekend.
Vice President Harris will travel to Dalton, Ga., to tour Qcells, a solar panel manufacturing plant, at 1:15 p.m. She will speak about clean energy and U.S. jobs at 1:50 p.m. before returning to Washington.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will host a reception at her department for foreign ambassadors, along with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to support the candidacy of Ajay Banga to lead the World Bank.
Economic indicators: The Labor Department will report at 8:30 a.m. on claims for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending April 1.
The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m.
ELSEWHERE
➤ STATE WATCH
In Maryland, a long-awaited report on Catholic Church abuse on Wednesday added searing evidence and survivor accounts that at least 600 children were sexually abused over 60 years, according to the state’s attorney general (The Baltimore Sun and NBC News).
The 456-page redacted report states that many hundreds of youngsters, preschoolers to young adults, sufferedsexual abuse and “physical torture” by more than 150 clergy members from the mid-1940s to 2002 in Maryland. The attorney general’s office had previewed some of its findings in a November court filing, but the report added horrifying details: “tests of torture” that involved chaining and whipping teenagers; two sisters who were abused as grade-schoolers “hundreds of times” by one priest; a deacon who admitted to molestingmore than 100 minors over three decades; clergy who preyed on children they met recovering at hospitals (The Washington Post).
Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown (D) urged survivors of such abuse by Catholic clergy to come forward and he tweeted a phone number and email address to use.
The Maryland report is the latest effort by civil authorities around the country spanning two decades to chronicle the specifics of Catholic clergy sex abuse cases, the Post reports. There have been 19 such reports, according to Bishop Accountability, the Catholic research and advocacy group. Few priests or bishops have ever been prosecuted or otherwise held accountable for abusing or mishandling abusers and victims. One exception is former cardinal Theodore McCarrick, 92, who was defrocked in 2019 after abuse allegations surfaced. He is now facing criminal charges in Massachusetts that he sexually assaulted a teenager in 1974.
Eager to sign Maryland’s new Child Victims Act, Gov. Wes Moore (D) received the measure within an hour of the release of the attorney general’s sexual abuse report (The Baltimore Sun).
In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) on Wednesday repealed a nearly century-old law on the books that banned abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest. The 1931 law called for the prosecution of reproductive care providers but remained unenforced for decades after the Supreme Court established a federal right to abortion with Roe v. Wade in 1973. It was set to take effect when the high court overturned Roe last year (The Hill).
Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) on Wednesday signed into law a ban on all gender affirming care for transgender minors, joining at least 12 other states with similar bans (KTLA). The Indiana law will go into effect July 1 and transgender youth currently taking medication to transition have until the end of the year to discontinue the process under the law. Other states with bans: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Utah, South Dakota and West Virginia. Federal judges have blocked enforcement of laws in Alabama and Arkansas. Nearly two dozen states are considering bills this year to restrict or ban care for transgender patients (Politico).
➤ HEALTH & PANDEMIC
Gen Z is drinking less than older generations, with the shift away from booze stemming from heightened awareness about the health consequences of alcohol, a disinterest in bar culture, and a preference for cannabis, writes The Hill’s Alejandra O’Connell-Domenech. A report from Berenberg Research showed that Gen Z drinks 20 per cent less per capita than millennials when it comes to alcohol consumption. The shift away from alcohol stems in part from a heightened awareness of the risks that come with drinking, from poor decision making to addiction to negative health impacts.
Young people “are actually learning that alcohol is toxic to humans,” said Charles Smith, an addiction specialist at the American Addiction Centers Recovery First Treatment Center in Hollywood, Fla.
According to a December Gallup poll, the percentage of U.S. adults aged 18 and older who say they drink alcohol averaged 63 percent over the past two years, whereas 36 percent described themselves as “total abstainers.”
▪ The New York Times: Moderate drinking has no health benefits, analysis of decades of research finds. The review found that the methodology of many previous studies was flawed and that risk of myriad health problems increased significantly after less than two drinks a day for women and after three for men.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Are marijuana edibles better for you — or at least less bad — than alcohol?
▪ Forbes: Despite some stumbles, total sales in the U.S. cannabis market could soar to $50.7 billion by 2028, says top researcher.
The Affordable Care Act may be struggling with its own success, as record enrollment over the last two years brought more consumers into the health insurance market, but many insurers began offering smaller networks of doctors and hospitals. That combination left some patients scrambling to find an available in-network physician or medical facility. A recent federal report found that 243 out of 375 insurance company plans reviewed by regulators failed to meet network standards (NPR).
▪ The Hill: Idaho becomes second state to make gender-affirming health care for minors a felony.
▪ The Associated Press: Indiana governor signs ban on gender-affirming health care.
THE CLOSER
Take Our Morning Report Quiz
And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Trump’s indictment and arraignment prompted thoughts of precedent and history, which means we’re eager for some smart guesses about politicians and their brushes with the law. 🧩 P.S. The photo, above, is a clue for today’s puzzle!
Be sure to email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and kkarisch@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.
When Secret Service agents escorted this U.S. leader to face criminal charges in the 1970s, they kept their mission secret — even from their own bosses. President Richard Nixon Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) Vice President Spiro Agnew Speaker Carl Albert (R-Okla.)
Illinois has a history of corrupt governors, but which one was pardoned by a former president who now faces criminal charges himself? George Ryan Rod Blagojevich Dan Walker Otto Kerner
The Congressional Post Office scandal refers to ___? Efforts by members of Congress to smuggle goods by mail Members using a House Post Office backroom to store stolen items Lawmakers attempting to pressure the U.S. Postal Service to decrease the price of stamps for congressional use A conspiracy to embezzle House Post Office money through stamps and postal vouchers to congressmen
In 1798, Rep. Matthew Lyon of Kentucky became the first member of Congress recommended for censure for doing what to Rep. Roger Griswold of Connecticut? Spitting on him Hitting him with a cane Tackling him on the House floor Shouting profanities at him Taiwan leader’s US meeting draws warning from China Affordable car options dwindle
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Business
At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds
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1 hour agoon
July 8, 2025By
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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing based on evidence from the Horizon IT system that the Post Office and developers Fujitsu knew could be false, the public inquiry has found.
A further 59 people told the inquiry they considered ending their lives, 10 of whom tried on at least one occasion, while other postmasters and family members recount suffering from alcoholism and mental health disorders including anorexia and depression, family breakup, divorce, bankruptcy and personal abuse.
Follow latest on public inquiry into Post Office scandal
Writing in the first volume of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry report, chairman Sir Wyn Williams concludes that this enormous personal toll came despite senior employees at the Post Office knowing the Horizon IT system could produce accounts “which were illusory rather than real” even before it was rolled out to branches.
Sir Wyn said: “I am satisfied from the evidence that I have heard that a number of senior, and not so senior, employees of the Post Office knew or, at the very least, should have known that Legacy Horizon was capable of error… Yet, for all practical purposes, throughout the lifetime of Legacy Horizon, the Post Office maintained the fiction that its data was always accurate.”
Referring to the updated version of Horizon, known as Horizon Online, which also had “bugs errors and defects” that could create illusory accounts, he said: “I am satisfied that a number of employees of Fujitsu and the Post Office knew that this was so.”
The first volume of the report focuses on what Sir Wyn calls the “disastrous” impact of false accusations made against at least 1,000 postmasters, and the various redress schemes the Post Office and government has established since miscarriages of justice were identified and proven.
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3:28
‘It stole a lot from me’
Recommendations regarding the conduct of senior management of the Post Office, Fujitsu and ministers will come in a subsequent report, but Sir Wyn is clear that unjust and flawed prosecutions were knowingly pursued.
“All of these people are properly to be regarded as victims of wholly unacceptable behaviour perpetrated by a number of individuals employed by and/or associated with the Post Office and Fujitsu from time to time and by the Post Office and Fujitsu as institutions,” he says.
What are the inquiry’s recommendations?
Calling for urgent action from government and the Post Office to ensure “full and fair compensation”, he makes 19 recommendations including:
• Government and the Post Office to agree a definition of “full and fair” compensation to be used when agreeing payouts
• Ending “unnecessarily adversarial attitude” to initial offers that have depressed the value of payouts, and ensuring consistency across all four compensation schemes
• The creation of a standing body to administer financial redress to people wronged by public bodies
• Compensation to be extended to close family members of those affected who have suffered “serious negative consequences”
• The Post Office, Fujitsu and government agreeing a programme for “restorative justice”, a process that brings together those that have suffered harm with those that have caused it
Regarding the human impact of the Post Office’s pursuit of postmasters, including its use of unique powers of prosecution, Sir Wyn writes: “I do not think it is easy to exaggerate the trauma which persons are likely to suffer when they are the subject of criminal investigation, prosecution, conviction and sentence.”
He says that even the process of being interviewed under caution by Post Office investigators “will have been troubling at best and harrowing at worst”.
Read more:
Post Office inquiry lays bare heart-breaking legacy – analysis
‘Hostile and abusive behaviour’
The report finds that those wrongfully convicted were “subject to hostile and abusive behaviour” in their local communities, felt shame and embarrassment, with some feeling forced to move.
Detailing the impact on close family members of those prosecuted, Sir Wyn writes: “Wives, husbands, children and parents endured very significant suffering in the form of distress, worry and disruption to home life, in employment and education.
“In a number of cases, relationships with spouses broke down and ended in divorce or separation.
“In the most egregious cases, family members themselves suffered psychiatric illnesses or psychological problems and very significant financial losses… their suffering has been acute.”
The report includes 17 case studies of those affected by the scandal including some who have never spoken publicly before. They include Millie Castleton, daughter of Lee Castleton, one of the first postmasters prosecuted.
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Three things you need to know about Post Office report
She told the inquiry how her family being “branded thieves and liars” affected her mental health, and contributed to a diagnosis of anorexia that forced her to drop out of university.
Her account concludes: “Even now as I go into my career, I still find it so incredibly hard to trust anyone, even subconsciously. I sabotage myself by not asking for help with anything.
“I’m trying hard to break this cycle but I’m 26 and am very conscious that I may never be able to fully commit to natural trust. But my family is still fighting. I’m still fighting, as are many hundreds involved in the Post Office trial.”
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the inquiry’s report “marks an important milestone for sub-postmasters and their families”.
He added that he was “committed to ensuring wronged sub-postmasters are given full, fair, and prompt redress”.
“The recommendations contained in Sir Wyn’s report require careful reflection, including on further action to complete the redress schemes,” Mr Reynolds said.
“Government will promptly respond to the recommendations in full in parliament.”
Business
Public finances in ‘relatively vulnerable position.’, OBR warns
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July 8, 2025By
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The UK’s public finances are in a “relatively vulnerable position”, the government’s official forecaster has warned.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) cited a drag from successive economic shocks, recent U-turns on spending cuts and higher-than-expected policy commitments.
It sounded alarm over the projected path for debt as a result, in its annual fiscal risks and sustainability report.
It saw total debt above 270% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the early 2070s – up from a current level of 96.5% – declaring that rising debts have led to “a substantial erosion of the UK’s capacity to respond to future shocks”.
Money latest: Amazon launches 24/7 grocery deliveries
The OBR’s report highlighted damage from the COVID pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But it raised fears that past and current government policies were further harming the sustainability of the public finances.
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The report said that the pension triple lock, for example, was now estimated to cost £15.5bn annually by 2029-30.
That was “around three times higher than initial expectations”, it said.
The lock, which rises each year in line with inflation, wage growth or 2.5% – whichever is higher – had risen by more than the 2.5% base in eight of the 13 years of operation to date, the report stated.
The watchdog said it reflected more volatile inflation than expected.
It also picked up on the latest government U-turns over planned welfare and winter fuel payment cuts in the face of rebellions by Labour MPs.
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Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’
The decisions are expected to leave Chancellor Rachel Reeves facing a black hole of £6.75bn while weaker-than-expected economic growth could add a further £9bn to that sum in the run-up to the autumn budget, according to Sky News projections that see a void of around £20bn.
The OBR highlighted future risks from rising defence spending and the impact of climate change.
Public sector pay demands could also prove a drag, with resident doctors voting in favour of strikes over pay.
While ministers acknowledge damage to the public purse from the U-turns, Ms Reeves has repeatedly ruled out a new wave of borrowing to fund a spending spree.
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Could the rich be taxed to fill black hole?
As such, the government has not ruled out the prospect of some form of wealth tax to help meet its commitments despite the top 1% of earners contributing almost a third of all income tax already – on top of other targeted taxes such as capital gains.
The report said: “Efforts to put the UK’s public finances on a more sustainable footing have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years in the aftermath of the shocks, debt has also continued to rise and borrowing remained elevated because governments have reversed plans to consolidate the public finances.
“Planned tax rises have been reversed, and, more significantly, planned spending reductions have been abandoned.”
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said of the report: “The OBR’s report lays bare the damage: Britain now has the third-highest deficit and the fourth-highest debt burden in Europe, with borrowing costs among the highest in the developed world.
“Under Rachel Reeves’ economic mismanagement and Keir Starmer’s weak leadership, our public finances have become dangerously exposed – vulnerable to future shocks, welfare spending rising unsustainably, taxes rising to record highs and crippling levels of debt interest.
“Labour’s recklessness risks it all – your pension, your job, your home, your savings.”
A Number 10 spokesman said: “We recognise the realities set out in the OBR’s report and we’re taking the decisions needed to provide stability to the public finances.”
World
‘Widespread sexual violence’ took place during Hamas’s 7 October attacks, report by Israeli experts says
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July 8, 2025By
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A newly released report led by Israeli legal and gender experts presents detailed evidence alleging “widespread and systematic” sexual violence during the Hamas-led terror attack on 7 October.
Warning: This story contains descriptions of rape and sexual violence
The findings, published by the Dinah Project, argue that these acts amount to conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), and assert that “Hamas used sexual violence as a tactical weapon of war”.
The report draws on 18 months of investigation and is based on survivor testimonies, eyewitness accounts, and interviews with first responders, morgue personnel and healthcare professionals.
According to the Dinah Project, the documented patterns – such as forced nudity, gang rapes, genital mutilation, and threats of forced marriage – indicate a deliberate and coordinated use of sexual violence by Hamas operatives during the attack.
Reported incidents span at least six locations, including the Nova music festival, and several kibbutzim in southern Israel.

A destroyed car near the police station in Sderot, following the 7 October attacks by Hamas. Pic: AP
One section of the report describes victims “found fully or partially naked from the waist down, with their hands tied behind their backs and/or to structures such as trees and poles, and shot”.
At the Nova music festival and surrounding areas, the investigators found “reasonable grounds to believe” that multiple women were raped or gang-raped before being killed.
The report’s findings are consistent with earlier investigations by the United Nations and the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Read more:
What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal?
Israeli soldier describes arbitrary killing of civilians in Gaza
The UN’s Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict previously concluded that there were “reasonable grounds to believe” CRSV took place during the attack.

Destroyed vehicles near the grounds of the Supernova electronic music festival. Pic: AP
Significantly, the Dinah Project urges the international community to officially recognise the use of sexual violence by Hamas as a deliberate strategy of war and calls on the United Nations to add Hamas to its list of parties responsible for conflict-related sexual violence.

Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
The nature and scale of sexual violence on 7 October have been a subject of intense controversy, with some accusing parties of weaponising the narrative for political ends.
This report seeks to confront what its authors call “denial, misinformation, and global silence,” and to provide justice for the victims.
Hamas has denied that its fighters have used sexual violence and mistreated female hostages.
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