Today, Sir Keir Starmer will deliver on his pledge to recognise a Palestinian state – after setting out a series of conditions in July which there was little prospect Israel could meet, including agreeing a ceasefire with Hamas. 

The prime minister will say it recognises the “inalienable right” of the Palestinian people and what he feels is a moral responsibility to keep a two-state solution alive, amid the devastation of the war and concern about settlement expansion in the West Bank.

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This will be formally put forward by the British government at a conference of the UN General Assembly in New York this week, after a diplomatic push led by Emmanuel Macron. Canada and Australia are also expected to recognise it, although may call for Hamas to disarm.

But Labour has always said it’s a move they would make as part of a peace process, which looks further away than ever.

What does it mean?

The move has been heavily criticised and leaves a number of questions not only about what it will achieve – but about whether it will have the opposite effect on the conflict.

David Lammy as foreign secretary conceded when the pledge was announced that “it will not change the position on the ground” which can only come through negotiations.

After all, 147 of the 193 member states of the United Nations recognise it already. Palestine has permanent observer status at the UN – speaking rights, but not voting rights – where it’s represented by the Palestinian Authority. Any move to full status would have to be agreed by the Security Council where the US has a veto.

Sir Keir has made clear he doesn’t accept Hamas – which he calls a “brutal terrorist organisation” – as a government in Gaza. The borders of such a state, wrangled over for decades during multiple rounds of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, are also not agreed.

Read more about what the decision means

Criticism

Recognition is opposed by the Trump administration, as the US president made clear in London last week. US secretary of state Marco Rubio has said it would “embolden Hamas” and be symbolic only.

In Britain there is cynicism too. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, has accused the prime minister of a “desperate and insincere attempt to placate his backbenchers”. He heads to the party’s conference in Liverpool next week with a further slump in his approval ratings to -42%, around where Rishi Sunak’s was after his D-Day blunder.

Over a third of Labour MPs wrote to Sir Keir before his pledge in July, calling for recognition of a Palestinian state. It is not clear this symbolic move will placate them, with some already calling for tougher measures including on arms sales to Israel – especially after a UN Commission of Inquiry claimed Israel had committed genocide.

Other Labour MPs oppose the recognition move. The Labour Friends of Israel group has said: “It is important to recognise that Israel is not the only party to this conflict… Hamas could end this conflict tomorrow by releasing the hostages and laying down its arms.”

The move is also opposed by the families of the hostages in Gaza, of which 20 are believed to be alive – for not imposing their release as a condition on Hamas.

Ilay David, the brother of Evyatar David, who recently appeared emaciated in a Hamas video, said: “We want to meet with Starmer but he refuses to meet with us… Giving this recognition is like saying to Hamas: ‘It is OK you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields’. This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now.”

Sir Ephraim Mirvis, the UK’s Chief Rabbi has said the “unconditional” recognition of the state “is not contingent upon a functioning or democratic Palestinian government, nor even upon the most basic commitment to a peaceful future”.

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What happens next?

Sir Keir met 89-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, in London this month and they agreed Hamas should not be involved in the governance of Gaza.

Efforts to set up a transitional government have been discussed between the US and Gulf states. But Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, said last week there was nothing “ready for signature”.

The UK government is expected to announce further sanctions on Hamas figures this week. But the Israeli government has already responded with fury to the prospect of recognition and it’s reported that retaliation could include further annexations in the West Bank.

The UK government sees this as an important diplomatic move with allies, when nothing else is moving the dial. But it can only be made once, and even supporters in government acknowledge that on the ground in Gaza it won’t immediately change very much.

Two British fighter jets have flown their first defence mission over Poland after a Russian drone incursion into the country’s skies.

The flight was part of NATO‘s operation “Eastern Sentry”, launched to bolster Europe’s eastern flank after Poland shot down Russian drones earlier this month.

A Russian drone was intercepted flying over Romania days later, while three Russian jets entered Estonian airspace without permission for 12 minutes on Friday.

The three incursions into NATO airspace fuelled concerns about the potential expansion of Russia‘s three-year war in Ukraine and have been seen as an attempt by Moscow to test the military alliance’s response.

The incident over Poland prompted its prime minister, Donald Tusk, to warn that his country was the closest to “open conflict” it had been since the Second World War, while the UK announced it would provide Warsaw with extra air cover.

Two RAF Typhoons, supported by an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling plane, took off from RAF Coningsby, in Lincolnshire, on Friday night to defend Poland’s skies before returning safely early on Saturday morning.

Defence Secretary John Healey said the mission sends a clear signal that “NATO airspace will be defended”.

“I’m proud of the outstanding British pilots and air crew who took part in this successful operation to defend our allies from reckless Russian aggression.”

He said the mission was “especially poignant” coming as the UK marks the 85th anniversary of the Battle of Britain – when Polish pilots came to the aid of the UK – this weekend.

The head of the RAF, Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth, said: “This sortie marks the RAF’s first operational mission on Eastern Sentry, reinforcing the UK’s steadfast commitment to NATO and its allies.

“We remain agile, integrated, and ready to project airpower at range.”

The UK will formally recognise Palestine as a state, it is understood.

Sir Keir Starmer is expected to make the announcement on Sunday after he said in July that the government would make the move unless Israel met certain conditions.

The prime minister had called on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to take substantive steps to end the “appalling situation in Gaza“, agree to a ceasefire, commit to a long-term sustainable peace, allow the UN to restart the supply of aid, and not annex the West Bank.

The Israeli foreign ministry furiously rejected his statement, with Mr Netanyahu claiming that “Starmer rewards Hamas‘s monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims”.

Ilay David, brother of Hamas hostage Evyatar David, who was seen emaciated in a video last month, said giving recognition was “like saying to Hamas: ‘It is OK, you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields.’

“This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now.”

There has been no ceasefire, and the situation in Gaza has deteriorated, with a declaration of a famine in Gaza City and the expansion of Israeli military operations.

Israel has launched a major ground offensive to seize all of Gaza City and destroy Hamas in an operation which has prompted widespread condemnation, with UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper calling it “utterly reckless and appalling”.

Earlier this month, a UN commission of inquiry concluded that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. Israel said the claim was “distorted and false”.

The UK will join 147 of the 193 members of the UN who recognise Palestine ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York on Monday.

Other nations, including France, Australia and Canada, have said they plan to take the same step at the UN gathering as part of a broad international effort to put pressure on Israel.

During a joint news conference with the prime minister at Chequers on Thursday, Donald Trump said he disagreed with recognition, and US politicians have urged the UK and other allies to reverse their stance.

Sky News understands that Israel is considering options in response to the UK’s decision, but the strength of that reaction is still under consideration.

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Family members of some of the 48 hostages still in captivity, after Hamas and other militant groups stormed into Israel on 7 October 2023, have written an open letter to Sir Keir, condemning the move.

“Hamas has already celebrated the UK’s decision as a victory and reneged on a ceasefire deal,” they said.

“We write to you with a simple plea – do not take this step until our loved ones are home and in our arms.”

The UK government is understood to be looking at further sanctions on Hamas, and has demanded the group release all hostages, agree to an immediate ceasefire, accept it will have no role in governing Gaza, and commit to disarmament.