US intelligence leak deals severe blow to Ukraine war effort

Published

2 years ago

April 11, 2023

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The largest U.S. military leak in a decade is a serious blow to Ukraine’s war effort, creating an intelligence threat for that country’s forces ahead of an expected counteroffensive this spring.

Classified documents leaked on social media offer extensive details about munitions, training and air defense systems at a critical point in the fight. The Pentagon is still reviewing the validity of the documents.

Dozens of classified U.S. and NATO documents, some labeled “Top Secret,” began leaking in more obscure parts of the internet in January before spilling over to Twitter and Telegram and picking up attention last week.

While they only provide a status of the conflict up to March, the material does reveal insight into Ukraine’s military capabilities, including battalion sizes, training on advanced weaponry and deployment of heavy combat vehicles, such as Leopard II tanks.

They also give a view into Kyiv’s shortcomings, with at least one document describing how the country could soon run out of munitions for Soviet-era anti-air missile systems, exposing a potential vulnerability in Ukraine’s air defense systems.

Kurt Volker, a distinguished fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis, said the leak is worrying because it gives the world a “snapshot” of U.S. assessments and judgements on the war in Ukraine.

“It is signaling to Ukrainians, to Russians, to others, ‘Here’s what we’re thinking,’” Volker said, and it “may give some clues as to the quality of our information, where we’re getting it from … which will cause the people we’re collecting on to shut that down.”

Perhaps the most alarming leak contains information on the Ukrainian air defenses.

One document, dated in February, says missiles for the S300 will run out by May, while the SA-11 Gadfly missile system will be depleted by the end of March. Both systems make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s air defenses, according to NATO, and are crucial in fending off frequent Russian missile strikes.

Russian military bloggers have already widely spread the leaked documents, including those estimating how many air defense systems and aircraft such as fighter jets are deployed by Ukraine.

NATO’s assessment also says Ukraine could withstand only a few more waves of Russian missile strikes, while providing a map of where its air defense systems are.

John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, referred to the information on Ukraine’s air defenses as the “most unfortunate” part of the leaked documents.

But he said none of the documents contain any critical information not already known by NATO allies and Russian intelligence.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that some damage has been done to Ukraine’s war effort as a result of leaks,” he said. “But was the damage overwhelming? Probably not.”

Other documents explain the strength and capabilities of Ukrainian brigades, as well as which weapons systems Ukraine has trained on. One February document estimates the number of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery units fielded by Ukraine.

Moscow has been unusually quiet on the leaks, though state-run news outlet TASS published the details of the documents.

Russian military bloggers appear to be skeptical, with one account, the War Chronicle, pointing out misspellings and errors in the material.

Rybar, a blogger with more than 1 million followers on Telegram, called it “a controlled leak and a massive disinformation campaign” to make Ukrainians look unprepared and ultimately encourage Russia to make a mistake.

The leak is also worrying for the U.S. because Russia could figure out how the Pentagon is collecting crucial intelligence on Russian forces and capabilities.

The documents contain information on not only Ukraine’s forces but also a detailed assessment on Russia’s army, from tanks to artillery and aircraft.

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in an email that the leaks could “lead Russia to tighten its communications security, reducing our knowledge of their next moves.”

It’s unclear how many documents are currently circulating across the internet, but at least 100 separate documents have appeared online, according to several reports and analysts.

The Pentagon on Monday declined to comment on the size and scope of the leak, revealing that the Defense Department was still investigating the matter.

“The Department of Defense is working around the clock to look at the scope and scale of the distribution, the assessed impact and our mitigation measures,” Chris Meagher, assistant to the secretary of Defense for public affairs, told reporters.

“We’re still investigating how this happened, as well as the scope of the issue. There have been steps to take a closer look at how this type of information is distributed and to whom. We’re also still trying to assess what might be out there,” he added.

Meagher also revealed that the format of the documents are “similar in format to those used to provide daily updates to our senior leaders on Ukraine and Russia-related operations, as well as other intelligence updates,” and “present a very serious risk to national security.”

Investigative group Bellingcat traced the documents back to a leak in early March through a channel on Discord, a website where users discuss topics, primarily gaming.

Ten of the documents appeared on a Discord channel related to the popular video game “Minecraft” in the earliest verified leak, but Bellingcat said there may have been leaks as early as January on a separate Discord server.

The Pentagon last week said it was reviewing the document leaks and had turned over a formal criminal investigation of them to the Department of Justice. U.S. officials on Monday said the investigation was a “top priority” and urged caution when studying the documents, noting some of them have been altered. Ukrainian prime minister arrives in DC at make-or-break moment ‘Pissed off as hell’: US tries to contain leaks fallout with friends and enemies

The Defense Department did not identify how many have been altered. But a document that gained attention last week inflated the number of Ukrainians killed in action and drastically reduced the number of Russian casualties in the war.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, has called the intelligence leaks an attempt to “divert attention” and “sow discord” among Western allies.

Also on Monday, the Pentagon would not explain whether more documents are likely to appear online and how many officials in the Defense Department had access to these documents. Officials say the leak has prompted the department to take steps to review how some classified information is shared and to whom.

Sports

Kershaw joins the 3K club! Where does he rank among pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts?

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3 hours ago

July 3, 2025

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Kershaw joins the 3K club! Where does he rank among pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts?

Bradford DoolittleJul 2, 2025, 11:44 PM ET
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The 3,000-strikeout club has grown by one, with Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers whiffing the Chicago White Sox‘s Vinny Capra in the sixth inning Wednesday at Dodger Stadium, becoming the 20th pitcher in baseball history to reach that milestone.

The 3K pitching club doesn’t generate as much hullabaloo as its hitting counterpart, but it is more exclusive: Thirty-three players have reached 3,000 hits.

When you look at the list of pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts, and Kershaw’s place on it, a few things jump out.

• None of them pitched at Ebbets Field, at least not in a regular-season game. I frame it like that to illustrate that this level of whiffery is a fairly recent phenomenon. The Dodgers bolted Brooklyn after the 1957 season, and at that point, Walter Johnson was the only member of the 3,000-strikeout club. A career Washington Senator, he never pitched against the Dodgers. Every other 3K member made his big league debut in 1959 or later. Half of them debuted in 1984 or later. Three of them (Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander) are active.

• For now, Kershaw has thrown the fewest career innings of any 3K member, though he’s likely to eventually end up with more frames than Pedro Martinez.

• Kershaw has the highest winning percentage of the 20 (.697) and the best ERA+ (155), though his edges over Martinez (.685 and 154) are razor thin.

• Kershaw tops the list in average game score (61.9) and is tied for second (with Bob Gibson) for quality start percentage (68%), behind only Tom Seaver (70%).

• Kershaw lags behind in bWAR, at least among this group of current, future and should-be Hall of Famers with 77.1, ranking 16th.

So where does Kershaw really rank in the 3K club? I’m glad you asked.

First, what should be obvious from the above bullet points is that the response to the question will vary according to how you choose to answer it. The ranking below reflects not only how I chose to answer the question but how I’d like to see starting pitchers rated in general — even today, in the wildly different context from the days of Walter Johnson.

1. Roger Clemens

FWP: 568.8 | Strikeouts: 4,672 (3rd in MLB history)

Game score W-L: 477-230 (.675)

The top three pitchers on the list, including Rocket, match the modern-era top three for all pitchers, not just the 3K guys. (The string is broken by fourth-place Christy Mathewson.) Before running the numbers, I figured Walter Johnson, with his modern-era record of 417 career wins (the old-fashioned variety), would top the list. But Clemens actually started more games (relief appearances don’t factor in) and had a better game score win percentage.

2. Randy Johnson

How we ranked the pitchers

To determine these ratings, I first created a database that logs every start made in an AL or NL game since 1901, using TruMedia. Next, I generated a modified version of Bill James’ game score for every start — more than 420,500 game scores and counting. The modification enforces a harsh penalty for pitchers who don’t get to four innings completed in a game, to offset the recent proliferation of the opener.

Then, I compared the two starters in each game. The higher game score earns the win, with any ties going to the pitcher who started for the team that won the game. Thus, in every game every starter earns either a win or a loss. There are no no-decisions. I tallied the career win-loss totals for all starters in this way.

To convert these career game score records to a single number, I borrowed another James formula called Fibonacci Win Points (FWP) — a combination of a pitcher’s win volume and win percentage.

FWP: 532.9 | Strikeouts: 4,875 (2nd)

Game score W-L: 421-182 (.698)

Since we’re lopping off pre-1901 performances, the method does Cy Young dirty. Only two pitchers — Young (511 wins) and Walter Johnson got to 400 career wins by the traditional method. By the game score method, the club grows to nine, including a bunch of players many of us actually got to see play. The Big Unit is one of the new 400-game winners, and of the nine, his game score winning percentage is the highest. The only thing keeping Johnson from No. 1 on this list is that he logged 104 fewer career starts than Clemens.

3. Walter Johnson

FWP: 494.7 | Strikeouts: 3,509 (9th)

Game score W-L: 437-229 (.656)

Don’t weep for the Big Train — even this revamping of his century-old performance record and the fixation on strikeouts can’t dim his greatness. That fact we mentioned in the introduction — that every 3K member except Walter Johnson debuted in 1959 or later — tells you a lot about just how much he was a man out of his time. Johnson retired after the 1927 season and surpassed 3,000 strikeouts by whiffing Cleveland’s Stan Coveleski on July 22, 1923. It was nearly 51 years before Gibson became 3K member No. 2 on July 17, 1974.

4. Greg Maddux

FWP: 443.3 | Strikeouts: 3,371 (12th)

Game score W-L: 453-287 (.612)

There is a stark contrast between pitcher No. 4 and pitcher No. 5 on this ranking. The wild thing about Maddux ranking above Nolan Ryan in a group selected for strikeouts is that no one thinks of Maddux as a strikeout pitcher. He never led a league in whiffs and topped 200 just once (204 in 1998). He was just an amazingly good pitcher for a really long time.

5. Nolan Ryan

FWP: 443.1 | Strikeouts: 5,714 (1st)

Game score W-L: 467-306 (.604)

Ryan is without a doubt the greatest strikeout pitcher who ever lived, and it’s really hard to imagine someone surpassing him. This is a guy who struck out his first six batters in 1966, when Lyndon Johnson was in the White House, and his last 46 in 1993, when Bill Clinton was there. Ryan was often criticized during his heyday for his win-loss record, but the game score method clears that right up. Ryan’s revised winning percentage (.604) is markedly higher than his actual percentage (.526).

6. Max Scherzer

FWP: 385.7 | Strikeouts: 3,419 (11th)

Game score W-L: 315-145 (.685)

Here’s another club Mad Max is in: .680 or better game score winning percentage, minimum 100 career starts. He’s one of just eight members, along with Kershaw. The list is topped by Smoky Joe Wood, who dominated the AL during the 1910s before hurting his arm and converting into a full-time outfielder. The full list: Wood, Martinez, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Mathewson, Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Scherzer.

7. Justin Verlander

FWP: 385.0 | Strikeouts: 3,471 (10th)

Game score W-L: 349-190 (.647)

Like Scherzer, Verlander is fresh off the injured list. Thus, the two active leaders in our version of FWP have resumed their tight battle for permanent supremacy. Both also resume their quests to become the 10th and 11th pitchers to reach 3,500 strikeouts. Verlander, who hasn’t earned a traditional win in 13 starts, is 4-9 this season by the game score method.

8. Pedro Martinez

FWP: 383.5 | Strikeouts: 3,154 (15th)

Game score W-L: 292-117 (.714)

By so many measures, Martinez is one of the greatest of all time, even if his career volume didn’t reach the same levels as those of the others on the list. His 409 career starts are easily the fewest of the 3K club. But he has the highest game score winning percentage and, likewise, the highest score for FWP per start (.938).

9. Steve Carlton

FWP: 379.8 | Strikeouts: 4,136 (4th)

Game score W-L: 420-289 (.592)

When you think of Lefty, you think of his 1972 season, when he went 27-10 (traditional method) for a Phillies team that went 59-97. What does the game score method think of that season? It hates it. Kidding! No, Carlton, as you’d expect, dominated, going 32-9. So think of it like this: There were 32 times in 1972 that Carlton outpitched his starting counterpart despite the lethargic offense behind him.

10. Tom Seaver

FWP: 371.3 | Strikeouts: 3,640 (6th)

Game score W-L: 391-256 (.604)

Perhaps no other pitcher of his time demonstrated a more lethal combination of dominance and consistency than Seaver. The consistency is his historical differentiator. As mentioned, his career quality start percentage (70%) is tops among this group. Among all pitchers with at least 100 career starts, he ranks fifth. Dead ball era pitchers get a leg up in this stat, so the leader is the fairly anonymous Jeff Tesreau (72%), a standout for John McGraw’s New York Giants during the 1910s. The others ahead of Seaver are a fascinating bunch. One is Babe Ruth, and another is Ernie Shore, who in 1917 relieved Ruth when The Babe was ejected after walking a batter to start a game. Shore replaced him, picked off the batter who walked, then went on to retire all 26 batters he faced. The other ahead of Seaver: Jacob deGrom.

11. Clayton Kershaw

FWP: 370.9 | Strikeouts: 3,000 (20th)

Game score W-L: 301-137 (.687)

And here’s the guest of honor, our reason for doing this ranking exercise. As you can see, Kershaw joined the 300-game-score win club in his last start before Wednesday’s milestone game, becoming the 38th member. In so many measures of dominance, consistency and efficiency, Kershaw ranks as one of the very best pitchers of all time. When you think that he, Verlander and Scherzer are all in the waning years of Hall of Fame careers, you can’t help but wonder who, if anyone, is going to join some of the elite starting pitching statistical clubs in the future.

12. Don Sutton

FWP: 370.6 | Strikeouts: 3,574 (7th)

Game score W-L: 437-319 (.578)

For a post-dead ball pitcher, Sutton was a model of durability. He ranks third in career starts (756) and seventh in innings (5,283⅓). During the first 15 seasons of his career, Sutton started 31 or more games 14 times and threw at least 207 innings for the Dodgers in every season.

13. Ferguson Jenkins

FWP: 353.8 | Strikeouts: 3,192 (14th)

Game score W-L: 363-231 (.611)

Jenkins is in the Hall of Fame, so we can’t exactly say he was overlooked. Still, it does feel like he’s a bit underrated on the historical scale. His FWP score ranks 17th among all pitchers, and the game score method gives him a significant win-loss boost. That .611 percentage you see here is a good bit higher than his actual .557 career winning percentage. He just didn’t play for very many good teams and, in fact, never appeared in the postseason. He’s not the only Hall of Famer associated with the Chicago Cubs who suffered that fate.

14. Gaylord Perry

FWP: 335.6 | Strikeouts: 3,534 (8th)

Game score W-L: 398-292 (.577)

Perry, famous for doing, uh, whatever it takes to win a game, famously hung around past his expiration date to get to 300 wins, and he ended up with 314. Poor Perry: If my game score method had been in effect, he’d have quit two wins shy of 400. Would someone have given him a shot at getting there in 1984, when he was 45? One of history’s great what-if questions.

15. Phil Niekro

FWP: 332.5 | Strikeouts: 3,342 (13th)

Game score W-L: 408-308 (.570)

Knucksie won 318 games, and lost 274, the type of career exemplified by his 1979 season, when he went 21-20. We aren’t likely to see anyone again pair a 20-win season with a 20-loss season. His .537 traditional winning percentage improves with the game score method, but he’s still the low man in the 3K club in that column. Niekro joins Ryan and Sutton on the list of those with 300 game score losses. Sutton, at 319, is the leader. The others: Tommy John, Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer. Of course, they were all safely over the 300-game-score win threshold as well.

16. CC Sabathia

FWP: 323.2 | Strikeouts: 3,093 (18th)

Game score W-L: 339-221 (.605)

Sabathia will be inducted into the Hall of Fame next month, and his place in this group only underscores how deserving he is of that honor. Sabathia debuted in 2001, and to reach the 250 traditional-win level (he won 251) in this era is an amazing feat. The only pitcher in that club who debuted later is Verlander, stuck at 262 wins after debuting in 2005. Right now, it’s hard to imagine who, if anyone, will be next. Of course, if we just went with game score wins, that would be different.

17. Bob Gibson

FWP: 321.0 | Strikeouts: 3,117 (16th)

Game score W-L: 305-177 (.633)

Gibson, incidentally, also won 251 games — and also gets enough boost from the game score method to climb over 300. His revised percentage is better than his traditional mark of .591. His average game score ranks third in this group, a reflection of his steady dominance but also of the era in which he pitched. Gibson is tied for eighth in quality start percentage among all pitchers. In 1968, when Gibson owned the baseball world with a 1.12 ERA, he went 22-9 by the traditional method. The game score method: 26-8. You’d think it would be even better, but it was, after all, the Year of the Pitcher.

18. Bert Blyleven

FWP: 320.2 | Strikeouts: 3,701 (5th)

Game score W-L: 391-294 (.571)

It took a prolonged campaign by statheads to raise awareness about Blyleven’s greatness and aid his eventual Cooperstown induction. He finished with 287 traditional wins, short of the historical benchmark. Here he would fall short of the 400-win benchmark, but, nevertheless, he is tied with John and Seaver for 11th on the game score wins list. His actual winning percentage was .534.

19. Curt Schilling

FWP: 307.1 | Strikeouts: 3,116 (17th)

Game score W-L: 281-155 (.644)

There are 31 pitchers who have broken the 300 FWP level, and it’s hard for me to imagine how anyone in that group could be left out of Cooperstown. You can sort this out for yourself in terms of baseball and not baseball reasons for this, but the group not there is Clemens, Schilling, John and Andy Pettitte, plus the greats (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer) who are still active.

20. John Smoltz

FWP: 273.8 | Strikeouts: 3,084 (19th)

Game score W-L: 290-191 (.603)

Smoltz won 213 games the traditional way, and he falls just short of 300 by the revised method. But all of this is about starting pitching, and with Smoltz, that overlooks a lot. After missing the 2000 season because of injury, he returned as a reliever, and for four seasons he was one of the best, logging 154 saves during that time. He’s the only member of the 200-win, 100-save club.

Business

How markets reacted to uncertainty over Rachel Reeves’s future

Published

3 hours ago

July 3, 2025

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How markets reacted to uncertainty over Rachel Reeves's future

The pound fell and state borrowing costs rose during a period of uncertainty over the chancellor’s future on Wednesday.

During Prime Minister’s Questions, Sir Keir Starmer declined to guarantee whether a visibly emotional Rachel Reeves would remain chancellor until the next election following the government’s welfare bill U-turn.

Money blog: Cash in your pocket set to change

Following his remarks, the value of the pound dropped and government borrowing costs rose, via the interest rate on both 10 and 30-year bonds.

Although market fluctuations are common, there was a reaction following Sir Keir’s comments in the Commons – signalling concern among investors of potential changes within the Treasury.

Sterling dropped to a week-long low, hitting $1.35 for the first time since 24 June. The level, however, is still significantly higher than the vast majority of the past year, having come off the near four-year peak reached yesterday.

While a drop against the euro, took the pound to €1.15, a rate not seen since mid-April in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.

Meanwhile, the interest rate investors charge to lend money to the government, called the gilt yield, rose on both long-term (30-year) and ten-year bonds.

The UK’s benchmark 10-year gilt yield – so-called for the gilt edges that historically lined the paper they were printed on – rose to 4.67%, a high last recorded on 9 June.

And 30-year gilt yields hit 5.45%, a level not seen since 29 May.

Both eased back in the hours following – as a spokesperson for the prime minister attempted to quell speculation about the chancellor’s future.

Sky News understands the prime minister made clear to the chancellor that she has his “complete support” and remains integral to his project.

Ms Reeves has committed to self-imposed rules to reduce debt and balance the budget. Speculation around her future led investors to question the government’s commitment to balancing the books – and how they would do that.

The questions over her future came after the government scrapped the core money-saving component of its welfare bill, which had been intended to reduce spending in order to meet fiscal rules.

Business

More bad news for Elon Musk as Tesla deliveries miss target again

Published

3 hours ago

July 3, 2025

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More bad news for Elon Musk as Tesla deliveries miss target again

Tesla’s woes have deepened as latest production and deliveries figures showed a greater fall than expected.

A total of 384,122 Teslas were delivered from April to June this year, a 13.5% drop on the same period last year and the second quarter of slumping output.

Wall Street analysts had expected Tesla to report about 1,000 more deliveries.

It’s bad news for Tesla chief executive Elon Musk in a week of attacks from President Donald Trump on him personally, as well as his companies.

Money blog: Customers to get up to £2,000 compensation from water companies

Mr Musk found himself on the wrong side of Mr Trump and the majority of US congresspeople in his opposition to the so-called big beautiful bill approved by the US Senate.

His criticism of the inevitable debt rises the bill will result in led Mr Trump threatening to end subsidies for Mr Musk’s numerous businesses and to deport him.

His role as founder and chief executive of numerous businesses has made him the world’s richest man, according to Forbes.

As well as Tesla, Mr Musk founded space technology company SpaceX and Starlink. He also acquired the social media company Twitter, which he rebranded X.

It was the poor performance of Tesla that pushed him out of full-time politics and back to the Tesla offices.

After months of share price tumbles and protests at Tesla showrooms, sales drops and car defacings, Musk left his work with the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Not everyone viewed the figures as negative.

Analysts at financial services firm Wedbush said: “Tesla’s future is in many ways the brightest it’s ever been in our view given autonomous, FSD [full self-driving], robotics, and many other technology innovations now on the horizon with 90% of the valuation being driven by autonomous and robotics over the coming years but Musk needs to focus on driving Tesla and not putting his political views first.”

After a 5% share price fall earlier this week when Mr Musk strayed back into political matters, Tesla stock rose 4.5% on Wednesday.

The latest financial details for Tesla will be published later this month.

In the first three months of the year, Tesla’s profits fell by 71% to $409m (£306.77m) from $1.39bn (£1.04bn). Revenues were also well below forecasts, dropping 9% to $19.3bn (£14.5bn).