US intelligence leak deals severe blow to Ukraine war effort

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2 years ago

April 11, 2023

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The largest U.S. military leak in a decade is a serious blow to Ukraine’s war effort, creating an intelligence threat for that country’s forces ahead of an expected counteroffensive this spring.

Classified documents leaked on social media offer extensive details about munitions, training and air defense systems at a critical point in the fight. The Pentagon is still reviewing the validity of the documents.

Dozens of classified U.S. and NATO documents, some labeled “Top Secret,” began leaking in more obscure parts of the internet in January before spilling over to Twitter and Telegram and picking up attention last week.

While they only provide a status of the conflict up to March, the material does reveal insight into Ukraine’s military capabilities, including battalion sizes, training on advanced weaponry and deployment of heavy combat vehicles, such as Leopard II tanks.

They also give a view into Kyiv’s shortcomings, with at least one document describing how the country could soon run out of munitions for Soviet-era anti-air missile systems, exposing a potential vulnerability in Ukraine’s air defense systems.

Kurt Volker, a distinguished fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis, said the leak is worrying because it gives the world a “snapshot” of U.S. assessments and judgements on the war in Ukraine.

“It is signaling to Ukrainians, to Russians, to others, ‘Here’s what we’re thinking,’” Volker said, and it “may give some clues as to the quality of our information, where we’re getting it from … which will cause the people we’re collecting on to shut that down.”

Perhaps the most alarming leak contains information on the Ukrainian air defenses.

One document, dated in February, says missiles for the S300 will run out by May, while the SA-11 Gadfly missile system will be depleted by the end of March. Both systems make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s air defenses, according to NATO, and are crucial in fending off frequent Russian missile strikes.

Russian military bloggers have already widely spread the leaked documents, including those estimating how many air defense systems and aircraft such as fighter jets are deployed by Ukraine.

NATO’s assessment also says Ukraine could withstand only a few more waves of Russian missile strikes, while providing a map of where its air defense systems are.

John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, referred to the information on Ukraine’s air defenses as the “most unfortunate” part of the leaked documents.

But he said none of the documents contain any critical information not already known by NATO allies and Russian intelligence.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that some damage has been done to Ukraine’s war effort as a result of leaks,” he said. “But was the damage overwhelming? Probably not.”

Other documents explain the strength and capabilities of Ukrainian brigades, as well as which weapons systems Ukraine has trained on. One February document estimates the number of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery units fielded by Ukraine.

Moscow has been unusually quiet on the leaks, though state-run news outlet TASS published the details of the documents.

Russian military bloggers appear to be skeptical, with one account, the War Chronicle, pointing out misspellings and errors in the material.

Rybar, a blogger with more than 1 million followers on Telegram, called it “a controlled leak and a massive disinformation campaign” to make Ukrainians look unprepared and ultimately encourage Russia to make a mistake.

The leak is also worrying for the U.S. because Russia could figure out how the Pentagon is collecting crucial intelligence on Russian forces and capabilities.

The documents contain information on not only Ukraine’s forces but also a detailed assessment on Russia’s army, from tanks to artillery and aircraft.

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in an email that the leaks could “lead Russia to tighten its communications security, reducing our knowledge of their next moves.”

It’s unclear how many documents are currently circulating across the internet, but at least 100 separate documents have appeared online, according to several reports and analysts.

The Pentagon on Monday declined to comment on the size and scope of the leak, revealing that the Defense Department was still investigating the matter.

“The Department of Defense is working around the clock to look at the scope and scale of the distribution, the assessed impact and our mitigation measures,” Chris Meagher, assistant to the secretary of Defense for public affairs, told reporters.

“We’re still investigating how this happened, as well as the scope of the issue. There have been steps to take a closer look at how this type of information is distributed and to whom. We’re also still trying to assess what might be out there,” he added.

Meagher also revealed that the format of the documents are “similar in format to those used to provide daily updates to our senior leaders on Ukraine and Russia-related operations, as well as other intelligence updates,” and “present a very serious risk to national security.”

Investigative group Bellingcat traced the documents back to a leak in early March through a channel on Discord, a website where users discuss topics, primarily gaming.

Ten of the documents appeared on a Discord channel related to the popular video game “Minecraft” in the earliest verified leak, but Bellingcat said there may have been leaks as early as January on a separate Discord server.

The Pentagon last week said it was reviewing the document leaks and had turned over a formal criminal investigation of them to the Department of Justice. U.S. officials on Monday said the investigation was a “top priority” and urged caution when studying the documents, noting some of them have been altered. Ukrainian prime minister arrives in DC at make-or-break moment ‘Pissed off as hell’: US tries to contain leaks fallout with friends and enemies

The Defense Department did not identify how many have been altered. But a document that gained attention last week inflated the number of Ukrainians killed in action and drastically reduced the number of Russian casualties in the war.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, has called the intelligence leaks an attempt to “divert attention” and “sow discord” among Western allies.

Also on Monday, the Pentagon would not explain whether more documents are likely to appear online and how many officials in the Defense Department had access to these documents. Officials say the leak has prompted the department to take steps to review how some classified information is shared and to whom.

Sports

Wisconsin fires offensive coordinator after 2 years

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1 hour ago

November 18, 2024

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Wisconsin fires offensive coordinator after 2 years

Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior WriterNov 17, 2024, 06:28 PM ET
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Wisconsin fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo on Sunday, a day after the Badgers’ 16-13 home loss to No. 1 Oregon.

In a statement, Badgers coach Luke Fickell thanked Longo for his two seasons with the program, while adding, “We are not where we need to be and believe this decision is in the best interest of the team.”

Wisconsin ranks 97th nationally in scoring and 102nd in passing while operating an Air Raid-style offense that Longo brought with him from North Carolina and other stops.

The Badgers, who lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending injury Sept. 14, had only three points and 88 yards in the second half against Oregon, which rallied from a 13-6 deficit entering the fourth quarter.

Wisconsin ranked 101st nationally in scoring in Longo’s 23 games as coordinator and failed to eclipse 13 points on its current three-game losing streak. Quarterback Braedyn Locke had only 96 passing yards against the Ducks.

Fickell did not immediately announce an interim coordinator for Wisconsin’s final regular-season games against Nebraska and Minnesota.

Fickell had long targeted Longo for a coordinator role, going back to his time as Cincinnati’s coach. Longo, 56, oversaw productive offenses at Ole Miss, North Carolina, Sam Houston State and other spots but never consistently got traction at a Wisconsin program that had operated dramatically differently on offense before his arrival.

“This team still has a lot in front of us and I am committed to doing everything we can to close out this season with success,” Fickell said in his statement.

Sports

4-star QB Jones, former FSU commit, picks Florida

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1 hour ago

November 18, 2024

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4-star QB Jones, former FSU commit, picks Florida

Eli Lederman, ESPN Staff WriterNov 17, 2024, 06:47 PM ET
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Four-star quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. has committed to Florida, he told ESPN on Sunday, joining the Gators’ 2025 class four days after pulling his pledge from Florida State.

Jones, a four-year starter at Florida’s Mandarin High School, is ESPN’s No. 9 dual-threat passer in the Class of 2025. After multiple trips to Florida throughout his recruitment, Jones returned to campus Saturday, taking an official visit with the Gators during the program’s 27-16 win over LSU. A day later, Jones stands as the lone quarterback pledge in a 2025 Florida class that includes five pledges from the ESPN 300.

“I pretty much saw everything I needed to see when I visited last spring — I just love everything around the campus,” Jones told ESPN. “And then hanging out with the guys yesterday, seeing the camaraderie with each other, that really just sealed it for me.”

Jones was the longest-tenured member of Mike Norvell’s 2025 class at Florida State before his decommitment from the Seminoles on Thursday morning.

Jones’ exit came days after Norvell announced the firings of three assistant coaches on Nov. 10, including offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Alex Atkins. Jones was the first Florida State commit to pull his pledge in the wake of the staff shakeup but marked the Seminoles sixth decommitment since the start of the regular season, joining five ESPN 300 recruits who have left Norvell’s recruiting class across the program’s 1-9 start.

Jones’ commitment follows a key late-season victory for Billy Napier on Saturday and marks the Gators’ first recruiting win since athletic director Scott Strickland announced on Nov. 7 that Florida would stick with the third-year coach beyond the 2024 season.

Uncertainty over Napier’s future had weighed down Florida’s recruiting efforts in the 2025 class as the Gators began November with the No. 39 class in ESPN’s latest team rankings for the cycle. But Jones’ pledge comes as a boost for Florida one day after the Gators hosted a handful of high-profile flip targets, including five-star offensive tackle Solomon Thomas (Florida State pledge) and four-star wide receiver Jaime Ffrench (Texas pledge).

When Jones signs with Florida, he’ll arrive on campus flanked by fellow in-state offensive talents in four-star wide receivers Vernell Brown III (No. 44 in the ESPN 300) and Naeshaun Montgomery (No. 115), as well as four-star running back Waltez Clark (No. 223). Florida is also set to sign a pair of in-state defenders from the 2025 ESPN 300 between four-star defensive end Jalen Wiggins (No. 68) and four-star cornerback Ben Hanks Jr. (No. 121).

With Jones’ commitment, Florida has another jolt to its momentum on the recruiting trail as the Gators seek to chart a strong finish in the 2025 cycle next month. More imminently, Florida will host No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday.

UK

Greater Manchester Police makes ‘improvements’ in treatment of women including new rules on strip searches – but questions remain after Sky News investigation

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1 hour ago

November 18, 2024

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Greater Manchester Police makes 'improvements' in treatment of women including new rules on strip searches - but questions remain after Sky News investigation

Greater Manchester Police (GMP) says it has made wide-ranging changes to the treatment of women in custody, following a Sky News investigation.

This includes ending the use of police strip searches for “welfare” purposes and ensuring it is a “last resort” when looking for concealed items.

A Sky News investigation in 2023 into the custody practices of GMP led to an inquiry by former victims’ commissioner Dame Vera Baird.

In July 2024, the report found “horror stories” of police making “unlawful” arrests and unnecessary strip searches, sometimes to victims of domestic violence or sexual assault.

A report today by the Greater Manchester mayor’s office welcomes the introduction of new measures including additional training for police officers dealing with domestic violence victims.

However, many victims are unconvinced. One such is Sophie, not her real name, telling her story for the first time.

She tells Sky News that even after the Baird Inquiry found her arrest was “unlawful” and the chief inspector called her treatment “appalling”, the police complaints department subsequently described the arrest as “acceptable”.

Sophie’s experience was investigated by Dame Vera alongside other women who Sky News spoke to last year.

She was arrested at 3am in the summer of 2022, and detained for 11 hours following a trivial complaint made by her ex-partner. Her accuser was designated by the police as a highly violent, domestic abuse perpetrator.

Even so, Sophie was arrested at her home in the middle of the night after her abuser alleged she had broken his car wing mirror, 14 months previously, and that she had bruised his arms on an occasion when he had strangled her.

‘They knew what I was trying to protect myself from’

The man making the allegation was someone who had punched, strangled, pressed his thumbs into Sophie’s eyes and locked her up in the house.

Sophie told Sky News: “He’s got a history of domestic violence; he’s got a history of being incarcerated. They knew what I’d gone through, they knew what I was trying to protect myself from.

“I was in contact regularly with domestic violence support workers who were meeting with police liaison officers. They knew that I had the locks changed. They knew I had an alert on the house and my phone.”

Sophie describes the police arrest as “an extension of his coercion”. She later refused to accept a police caution and was charged with the offence of damaging a wing mirror before a judge threw the case out saying it was not in the public interest.

At a press conference in July this year, Dame Vera said: “I tell you ladies and gentlemen, if someone tried to strangle me, I’d probably bruise his arms as well.”

She said the arresting officers had “locked away their brains” and criticised the custody sergeant who had logged his justification for the arrest as “to protect a vulnerable person”, in reference to the violent man.

A series of ‘failures’

At that time, GMP Chief Constable Stephen Watson said he was “appalled” by Sophie’s treatment.

He told Sky News: “It’s a systemic failure, a leadership failure, a process failure. I do think in individual circumstances it may be a failure of experience.”

And yet, one month after this, the police complaints department wrote to tell Sophie “there were sufficient grounds for your arrest”. The letter told her: “The service provided by the police was acceptable.”

Only after Sophie revealed that her case was part of the Baird Inquiry did the police retract these findings.

In a statement, GMP told Sky News: “The outcome Sophie was provided was incorrect. Having reviewed the handling of the complaint, our head of professional standards gave Sophie a personal apology and we are ensuring there is a full reinvestigation.

“Complaints relating to the Baird review – including Sophie’s – are subject to a fair and thorough examination, without fear or favour, by our Professional Standards Directorate.

“Where an investigation finds there to be a case to answer, we will ensure officers face disciplinary proceedings.

‘1,500 more domestic abuse survivors now getting justice’

“We are working hard to ensure that the people of Greater Manchester – particularly women and girls – can have confidence in their police force. This includes providing trauma-informed training for officers and getting better outcomes for victims – with 1,500 more domestic abuse survivors now getting justice compared to three years ago.

“Our communities can have confidence that the force is robust in maintaining good order and discipline. Those not fit to serve are being removed from GMP with more than 100 officers dismissed on the Chief Constable’s watch.”

However, Sky News has been told that most complaints relating to the Baird Inquiry are subject to ongoing investigation and, so far, no officers have been disciplined or dismissed.

In response to the Baird Inquiry, GMP now has a dedicated female welfare officer in its custody suites and is soon to introduce a new independent oversight panel to scrutinise arrests.

According to the mayor’s office, 24 of the 26 recommendations from the inquiry have been implemented.

Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham said: “This is a landmark moment in our quest to improve the safety and treatment of women across Greater Manchester.

“It is clear that there is still progress to be made. The deputy mayor and I will continue to hold up a mirror to unacceptable practices wherever we find them.”

Deputy mayor Kate Green added: “While the implementation of these recommendations to date is welcome, it is essential that the improvements brought about are maintained and indeed built upon, and on behalf of the mayor I will continue to scrutinise GMP as it makes progress in these areas.”

However, Sophie feels let down and says if she was in an abusive relationship again, she would think twice about going to the police.

“I wouldn’t just be OK with reporting something now, I would look at the consequences of me doing that, and what could happen as a result of me doing that, and how they would treat me,” she said.

“It’s going to take me longer to get over what happened to me that night in being arrested and being locked up than getting over being slapped or punched.”

Former victims’ commissioner Dame Vera Baird and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham will be speaking to Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast from 7.30am this morning.