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close video The Fed risks ‘overshooting’ its inflation, rate hike goals: Diane Swonk

KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk says it’s important to remember rapid rate hikes can exacerbate market fragility.

A high-stakes inflation report due Wednesday is expected to show that price pressures within the economy remained strong last month despite an aggressive interest rate hike campaign by the Federal Reserve.

Economists expect the consumer price index, which measures a basket of goods, including gasoline, health care, groceries and rent, to show that monthly prices rose 0.2% in March, down slightly from an increase of 0.4% February. On an annual basis, inflation is projected to have climbed 5.1% at an annual rate, a decline from 6% the previous month and a peak of 9.1% in June. 

While that would mark the slowest pace of inflation since May 2021, it remains nearly three times higher than the Fed's 2% target. 

Other parts of the report are also expected to point to a slow retreat for inflation, a worrisome sign for the U.S. central bank. Core prices, which exclude the more volatile measurements of food and energy, are expected to climb 0.4% or 5.6% annually, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain strong. 

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"Core inflation, and core services, should remain sticky-high," Bank of America analysts wrote in a note Monday,

The report is the last before the Federal Reserve's next policy-setting meeting May 2-3 and will have major implications for the U.S. central bank, which is tightening monetary policy at the fastest rate in decades as it tries to crush out-of-control inflation. 

Officials have already approved nine straight rate increases, lifting the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis. 

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Markets expect policymakers to approve another quarter-percentage point hike at the conclusion of their meeting next month despite upheaval in the banking system and concerns over a slowing economy. 

A man shops for meat at a Safeway grocery store in Annapolis, Md., May 16, 2022. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The probability that the Fed continues its rate hike campaign in May rose to 71% Wednesday, according to data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool, up from 44.8% just one week ago. About 28% of traders, meanwhile, are expecting central bankers to pause the rate hikes. 

"The Fed's policy should continue to have the desired impact on price pressures," said Michael Weisz, president of the investment firm Yieldstreet. "However, the target rate of 2% continues to be a long way off from the current path. The 'higher for longer' thesis may include both interest rates, as well as overall price levels, and thus slowing inflation may not happen as quickly as desired."

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Shoppers in a Kroger supermarket Oct. 14, 2022, in Atlanta. (Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The Fed is also watching other economic indicators, including job growth and consumer inflation expectations. In another welcoming sign for the central bank, there were indications the labor market softened but did not deteriorate last week. 

The March jobs report showed employers added 236,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, and that monthly wages also cooled. 

"Employment growth has not yet collapsed, though there are visible signs of continued moderation," said Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide chief economist. "In all, the Federal Reserve will be pleased by the details of the employment report, but still is supportive of another rate hike in May, which we think could be the last for the tightening cycle, followed by a long pause."

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Delhi-ghtful! India mulls 2035 ICE ban, blocks fuel sales to older vehicles

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Delhi-ghtful! India mulls 2035 ICE ban, blocks fuel sales to older vehicles

In a bold bid to combat the crippling air pollution crisis in its capital, Delhi, Indian lawmakers have begun high-level discussions about a plan to phase out gas and diesel combustion vehicles by 2035 – a move that could cause a seismic shift in the global EV space and provide a cleaner, greener future for India’s capital.

Long considered one of the world’s most polluted capital cities, Indian capital Delhi is taking drastic steps to cut back pollution with a gas and diesel engine ban coming soon – but they want results faster than that. As such, Delhi is starting with a city-wide ban on refueling vehicles more than 15 years old, and it went into effect earlier this week. (!)

“We are installing gadgets at petrol pumps which will identify vehicles older than 15 years, and no fuel will be provided to them,” said Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa … but they’re not stopping there. “Additionally, we will intensify scrutiny of heavy vehicles entering Delhi to ensure they meet prescribed environmental standards before being allowed entry.”

Making it prohibitively difficult for Dehli’s residents to own and operate older, presumably more polluting vehicles is one way to reduce harmful emissions and air pollution, but Sirsa’s team isn’t just targeting newer vehicles. They’re also planning to deploy more than 900 electric transit buses, part of a larger plan to replace 5,000 of the city’s 7,500 total bus with lower- or zero-emission options this year alone.

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The Economic Times is reporting that discussions are underway to pass laws requiring that all future bus purchases will be required to be electric or “clean fuel” (read: CNG or hydrogen) by the end of this year, with a gas/diesel ban on “three-wheelers and light goods vehicles,” (commercial tuk-tuks and delivery mopeds) potentially coming 2026 to 2027 and a similar ban privately owned and operated cars and bikes coming “between 2030 and 2035.”

Electrek’s Take

2025 Xpeng G6 all-electric SUV with 5C ultra-fast charging “AI batteries” launched in China
Xpeng EV with Turing AI and Bulletproof battery; via XPeng.

After a Chinese government study linked air pollution caused by automotive exhausts and coal-fired power plants to more than 1.1 million deaths per year in 2013, the nation’s government took serious action, shuttering older coal plants and imposing strict emissions standards. The country also incentivized EV adoption through license-plate lotteries favoring electric cars and a nationwide EV mandate set to kick in by 2030.

The results were astounding, and the technological innovations that have come from an entire nation of talented engineers all “pulling in the same direction” have put the West to shame, with Western auto executives repeatedly sounding the alarm and lobbying for tariffs and other protectionist policies on both sides of the Atlantic.

To see India make move towards a gas and diesel ban like this, and on such an aggressive timeline, can only mean that they’ve been paying attention … and America is about to fall even further behind.

SOURCE: India Times; featured image by Sumita Roy Dutta.

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Baffert’s Rodriguez wins Wood, enters Derby field

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Baffert's Rodriguez wins Wood, enters Derby field

Rodriguez led all the way to win the $750,000 Wood Memorial on Saturday, earning enough points to move into the 20-horse field for next month’s Kentucky Derby.

Breaking from the rail, the Bob Baffert-trained colt ran 1 1/8 miles on a fast track in 1:48.15 under Hall of Famer Mike Smith in light rain and 45-degree temperatures at Aqueduct in New York. Rodriguez won by 3 1/2 lengths.

The victory was worth 100 qualifying points for the May 3 Derby, potentially giving Baffert three entrants as he seeks a record-setting seventh victory in his return to the race from which he was banned for three years.

Later Saturday, Baffert was to saddle Citizen Bull, last year’s 2-year-old champion, and Barnes in the $500,000 Santa Anita Derby in California, where it was sunny and 82 degrees.

He sent Rodriguez to New York to split up his Derby contenders. The colt was sent off at 7-2 odds in the 10-horse field and paid $9.30 to win the 100th edition of the Wood. He is a son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic.

“Bob told me this horse is probably quicker than you think,” Smith said. “He can get uptight pretty easy, and the whole key was just letting him alone out there. I don’t think he necessarily has to have the lead. He just wants to be left alone.”

Smith has twice won the Kentucky Derby. Rodriguez would be his first mount since 2022. At 59, he would be the oldest jockey to win.

“That’s up to all the owners and Bob,” Smith said. “I was glad they pulled me off the bench and I hit a 3-shot for them.”

Grande, trained by Todd Pletcher, was second. He went from having zero qualifying points to 50, which should get him into the Derby starting gate for owner Mike Repole, who is 0 for 7 in the Derby.

Passion Rules was third. Captain Cook, the 9-5 favorite, finished fourth for trainer Rick Dutrow, who hasn’t had a Derby runner since 2010 after winning the 2008 race with Big Brown.

The $1.25 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland was postponed from Saturday to Tuesday due to heavy rain and potential flooding in the region. That race and the Lexington Stakes on April 12 are the final Derby preps of the season.

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Parker launches Mobile Electrification Technology Center training program

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Parker launches Mobile Electrification Technology Center training program

Last week, Parker Hannifin launched what they’re calling the industry’s first certified Mobile Electrification Technology Center to train mobile equipment technicians make the transition from conventional diesel engines to modern electric motors.

The electrification of mobile equipment is opening new doors for construction and engineering companies working in indoor, environmentally sensitive, or noise-regulated urban environments – but it also poses a new set of challenges that, while they mirror some of the challenges internal combustion faced a century ago, aren’t yet fully solved. These go beyond just getting energy to the equipment assets’ batteries, and include the integration of hydraulic implements, electronic controls, and the myriad of upfit accessories that have been developed over the last five decades to operate on 12V power.

At the same time, manufacturers and dealers have to ensure the safety of their technicians, which includes providing comprehensive training on the intricacies of high-voltage electric vehicle repair and maintenance – and that’s where Parker’s new mobile equipment training program comes in, helping to accelerate the shift to EVs.

“We are excited to partner with these outstanding distributors at a higher level. Their commitment to designing innovative mobile electrification systems aligns perfectly with our vision to empower machine manufacturers in reducing their environmental footprint while enhancing operational efficiency,” explains Mark Schoessler, VP of sales for Parker’s Motion Systems Group. “Their expertise in designing mobile electrification systems and their capability to deliver integrated solutions will help to maximize the impact of Parker’s expanding METC network.”

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The manufacturing equipment experts at Nott Company were among the first to go through the Parker Hannifin training program, certifying their technicians on Parker’s electric motors, drives, coolers, controllers and control systems.

“We are proud to be recognized for our unwavering dedication to advancing mobile electrification technologies and delivering cutting-edge solutions,” says Nott CEO, Markus Rauchhaus. “This milestone would not have been possible without our incredible partners, customers and the team at Nott Company.”

In addition to Nott, two other North American distributors (Depatie Fluid Power in Portage, Michigan, and Hydradyne in Fort Worth, Texas) have completed the Parker certification.

Electrek’s Take

electric bobcat track loader
T7X all-electric track loader at CES 2022; via Doosan Bobcat.

With the rise of electric equipment assets like Bobcat’s T7X compact track loader and E10e electric excavator that eliminate traditional hydraulics and rely on high-voltage battery systems, specialized electrical systems training is becoming increasingly important. Seasoned, steady hands with decades of diesel and hydraulic systems experience are obsolete, and they’ll need to learn new skills to stay relevant.

Certification programs like Parker’s are working to bridge that skills gap, equipping technicians with the skills to maximize performance while mitigating risks associated with high-voltage systems. Here’s hoping more of these start popping up sooner than later.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Parker Hannifin.

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