Forget The Terminator – when it comes to Arnie’s hit films, Johnson should worry about Total Recall | Adam Boulton

Published

2 years ago

April 14, 2023

admin

Boris Johnson quoted Arnold Schwarzenegger in the movie Terminator 2: Judgment Day in his final address to the Commons as prime minister.

“‘Hasta la vista, Baby’ – thank you”, he signed off to MPs last July.

The quotation, literally “until the view” in Spanish, is usually taken to mean “until we meet again” – a hope which Johnson wholeheartedly embraces. He makes no secret that he would like, and feels he deserves, another go in Number 10 Downing Street. Citing Schwarzenegger conjured up his other catchphrase: “I’ll be back.”

At the moment though, Mr Johnson should be more pre-occupied with another of Arnie’s greatest hits: Total Recall. Recall, in the sense that parliament meant it in the Recall of MPs Act 2015, may well be about to cut short his time as a member of parliament. For now, at least.

The Act was passed in the wake of the expenses scandal, when it proved impossible to remove members from parliament, even after they were sent to prison. The recall process has proved a quietly efficient way of dealing with wrongdoers, although not all of them have paid the ultimate price of losing their seats.

Under the Act recalling, i.e. unseating, an MP can be triggered for three reasons only:

1. If an MP is sent to prison for any length of time, once the appeals process is exhausted. (A sentence of over 12 months automatically kicks an MP out)
2. When the House votes to suspend an MP for 10 sitting days or more on the recommendation of the Standards Committee
3. If an MP is convicted of fiddling expenses and allowances under the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009 – even with a non-custodial sentence

When one of these conditions is met, the speaker informs the “petition officer” in the relevant constituency. In practice the “petition officer” is the council official who acts as returning officer at election times. They must then set up polling stations, open for six weeks, where the petition can be signed (in person or by post). If 10% or more of the local electorate sign it, the MP is recalled and a by-election takes place. The deposed individual is not barred from running for re-election.

So far, half a dozen MPs have been caught up with or faced the threat of a recall petition. Of these one is still serving and has been re-elected at a general election. Two are out of parliament and three are still uncertain what their fate will be.

In 2018, Ian Paisley Jnr, the DUP MP for North Antrim, was suspended for 30 days for failing to declare hospitality from the Sri Lankan government. But the recall petition in his constituency fell 444 votes short of 10%. No by-election was triggered and he kept his seat.

In early 2019 Fiona Onasanya, Labour MP for Peterborough, was sentenced to three months for perverting the court of justice over speeding offences. Labour removed the whip from her. 28% backed the recall petition. She did not contest the by-election.

The same year the Conservative MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, Christopher Davies, was found guilty of false expense claims. 19% voted for recall. Davies was allowed to stand again as the Conservative candidate in the subsequent by-election, but he lost to the Lib Dems. The Tory Fay Jones won it back in the 2019 general election.

Claudia Webbe, the MP for Leicester East, was convicted of harassment of her partner’s female friend. Labour removed the whip and say she should resign. Her conviction was upheld on appeal but the sentence was reduced, avoiding prison. So a recall petition was not triggered and Webbe continues to sit as an independent MP.

Margaret Ferrier, MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West, is currently going through the process following a breach of COVID travel restrictions. She was convicted and given 270 hours of community service at Glasgow Sherriff Court. In the next week or so, the Leader of the House, Penny Mordaunt, will call a debate, when the Commons is expected to uphold the 30-day suspension recommended by the Standards Committee. That would trigger a by-election for the SNP at a difficult time. The party has already said it will campaign against Ferrier if she stands again as an independent.

The Standards Committee membership overlaps with the Privileges Committee which is now investigating Boris Johnson for contempt of parliament through lying. Four Conservative MPs and the SNP member argued for a lighter, nine-day suspension for Ferrier which would not have meant a by-election. But in the end the whole committee backed the tougher measures.

Senior Conservatives still predict that the Privileges Committee will duck a furore if they find against Johnson by recommending a suspension of less than 10 days. But Ferrier’s punishment augurs badly for him if he is to avoid a challenge in his Uxbridge constituency. Their two offences are separate matters, of course, though both relate to breaking the pandemic rules which the prime minister introduced. Committee members are said to be less sympathetic to Mr Johnson than to Ferrier, who is a single parent with a home far from Westminster.

It is possible that Mr Johnson may prefer to face recall rather than stay on as MP for Uxbridge. He has already agreed to fight the next election there as their candidate. Based on current polls, Electoral Calculus predicts that he would lose. They give Labour an 83% chance of taking the seat.

Some MPs caught in controversy choose to fall on their swords and resign rather than go through the recall process – the Conservative MPs Neil Parish and, eventually, Owen Paterson are recent examples. If sanctioned Johnson might prefer to stand down immediately, citing the “good chap” principle. This would give him several personal advantages. Donald Trump style, he could claim political victimisation to stir up his supporters. He would have until the next election to earn as much as possible without having to declare his earnings to parliament.

He could also find another winnable seat. This week John Howell, who has served as MP for Henley since he took over from Boris Johnson, announced that he will not run in the new version of the constituency following boundary changes. Oxfordshire (South East) remains a safe seat with a 65% chance of being held by the Conservatives. Boris and Carrie Johnson own property in the area. It had been thought that Nadine Dorries’ Bedfordshire constituency might make a comfortable berth for him if, as expected, Johnson promotes her to the House of Lords. On current predictions though, Labour are favourites to capture this seat.

Some politicians from the radical right would like to use the recall process as a regular feature of political combat – as impeachment seems to be in danger of becoming in the United States. Zac Goldsmith proposed that just 5% of local voters should be able to trigger a recall for any reason. But the act passed by parliament deliberately reserves it for specific wrongdoing. It gives MPs teeth with which to police their own standards, at a time when public trust in them is low.

There are already more cases pending. Following a media sting, Scott Benton, Conservative MP for the marginal seat of Blackpool has referred himself to the standards commissioner for alleged misuse of his parliamentary email address.

Until now, media coverage of recall petitions has been quiet. This is largely because it is an offence to report on people signing the petition or to speculate on its outcome while it is taking place. The Electoral Commission has suggested some changes but neither the government nor MPs have taken them up. Those constraints on reporting are likely to be tested to the limit should Boris Johnson end up starring in his own Total Recall.

World

Joe Biden allows Kyiv to begin firing US rockets deep into Russia – as politician warns it ‘risks World War Three’

Published

29 mins ago

November 18, 2024

admin

Joe Biden allows Kyiv to begin firing US rockets deep into Russia - as politician warns it 'risks World War Three'

Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine to begin firing US-supplied rockets deep into Russia – as Sir Keir Starmer prepares to push for “further support” for Kyiv at the G20 summit.

Mr Biden’s policy shift means Kyiv will now be able to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for long-range attacks, two American officials have told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.

Ukraine plans to conduct its first such attacks in the coming days, the sources said, without revealing details due to operational security concerns.

The US has eased restrictions on the use of ATACMS, which have a range of up to 190 miles, after Russia began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces in the conflict.

The development was condemned by Biden officials as a possible expansion of the war.

Follow latest: Ukraine war live updates

A Russian politician and the son of president-elect Donald Trump have both likened the move to risking a third world war.

Maria Butina told the Reuters news agency: “These guys, Biden’s administration, is trying to escalate the situation to the maximum while they still have power and are still in office.

“I have a great hope that Trump will overcome this decision if this has been made because they are seriously risking the start of World War Three which is not in anybody’s interest.”

Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr wrote on X: “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives… Imbeciles!”

The outgoing Biden administration’s move comes as there are concerns about the level of support the Trump White House may be willing to give Ukraine.

Mr Trump has previously vowed to limit US support for Ukraine and end its war with Russia.

In an evening address after Kyiv was given permission to fire deep into Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Today, there’s a lot of talk in the media about us receiving permission for respective actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves. They certainly will.”

Back in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin said if the US were to lift the ban on long-range missile use it would be seen as NATO’s “direct participation” in the war.

He added: “This, of course, will significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict.”

Meanwhile, the UK prime minister has said he has “no plans” to speak with the Russian president as world leaders gather for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.

Mr Putin will not be attending the two-day summit which starts on Monday after saying in October that his presence would “disrupt the normal work of this forum”. Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will be attending instead.

It will take place days after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to Mr Putin on what was the Russian leader’s first publicly announced conversation with the sitting head of a major Western power in nearly two years.

Asked if he had any plans to make a similar call, Sir Keir said: “It’s a matter for Chancellor Scholz who he speaks to. I have no plans to speak to Putin.”

Speaking to reporters while on his way to the summit, he added: “We are coming up to the 1,000th day of this conflict on Tuesday.

“That’s 1,000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of huge impact and sacrifice in relation to the Ukrainian people and recently we’ve seen the addition of North Korean troops working with Russians which does have serious implications.

“I think on one hand it shows the desperation of Russia, but it’s got serious implications for European security […] and for Indo-Pacific security and that’s why I think we need to double down on shoring up our support for Ukraine and that’s top of my agenda for the G20.

“There’s got to be full support as long as it takes and that certainly is top of my agenda, shoring up that further support for Ukraine.”

The latest developments come after Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine on Sunday, with Mr Zelenskyy claiming Moscow had launched a total of 120 missiles and 90 drones.

Two major strikes, which left a total of 18 people dead, hit a residential building in the northeastern city of Sumy as well as energy infrastructure across Ukraine, prompting emergency power cuts.

Hours later, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russia’s air defence units had destroyed a drone heading towards the city.

World

Biden allows Kyiv to begin firing US rockets deep into Russia – as Starmer calls on allies to ‘double down’ on support

Published

3 hours ago

November 18, 2024

admin

Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine to begin firing US-supplied rockets deep into Russia – as Sir Keir Starmer prepares to push for “further support” for Kyiv at the G20 summit.

Ukraine plans to conduct its first such attacks in the coming days, the sources said, without revealing details due to operational security concerns.

The US has eased restrictions on the use of ATACMS, which have a range of up to 190 miles, after Russia began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces in the conflict.

The development was condemned by Biden officials as a possible expansion of the war.

Follow latest: Ukraine war live updates

The son of president-elect Donald Trump has criticised the move to allow Ukraine to fire deep into Russia.

Donald Trump Jr wrote on the X social media platform: “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives… Imbeciles!”